Relaxation of restrictions

JRant

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

Interesting article from Israel. The head of their space program, who is a professor of mathematics, has run the numbers. He's claiming it's almost a set pattern. No matter the country or the measures used it's approximately 40 days to peak and 70 to almost gone.

Ace2007

JRant wrote: »

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

Interesting article from Israel. The head of their space program, who is a professor of mathematics, has run the numbers. He's claiming it's almost a set pattern. No matter the country or the measures used it's approximately 40 days to peak and 70 to almost gone.

So if his logic is right, we should lock down for 70 days to reduce deaths, and after this time re-open everything?

The one issue with his findings is that we've only had maybe 109 days of the virus officially, so to say that at day 70 it basically dies, is a bit premature - as how many countries in the world have reached day 70?

martingriff

easypazz wrote: »

I can't see this lockdown happening again.

They will have to let it rip at some point.

They would if it looked out of hand

JRant

Ace2007 wrote: »

So if his logic is right, we should lock down for 70 days to reduce deaths, and after this time re-open everything?

The one issue with his findings is that we've only had maybe 109 days of the virus officially, so to say that at day 70 it basically dies, is a bit premature - as how many countries in the world have reached day 70?

I think he's arguing that social distancing by itself may have been enough as the lifecycle seems to be the same for countries that have social distancing and this that locked down.

Looking at our figures, deaths seemed to have peaked 8 days ago and we are now about 49/50 from first official case.

By May 5th we won't be far off the 70 days either.

CtevenSrowder

Cupatae wrote: »

The bottom line is, ill define what my position is on the whole thing not you.

And the bottom bottom line is that it is an indefinite lockdown you support.

Cupatae

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

And the bottom bottom line is that it is an indefinite lockdown you support.

Nope, you are boring me now, ive repeatedly proven you wrong and you keep regurgitating the same stuff.

niallo27

Cupatae wrote: »

Nope, you are boring me now, ive repeatedly proven you wrong and you regurgitating the same stuff.

Just give us your opinion on a restriction lifting date and get off the ****en fence

Cupatae

niallo27 wrote: »

Just give us your opinion on a restriction lifting date and get off the ****en fence

Ive repeatedly done so go back and read.

CtevenSrowder

Cupatae wrote: »

Nope, you are boring me now, ive repeatedly proven you wrong and you regurgitating the same stuff.

Haha you haven't. You've concocted in your head the idea that supporting an indefinite lockdown is somehow wrong. It isn't. You've repeatedly associated with a permanent lockdown which it isn't, which is where I think you have confused yourself. Just accept what it is you really are; a supporter of an indefinite lockdown.

awec

BanditLuke wrote: »

As I said already I'm a hurler on the ditch, I'll leave that in the hands of the experts.

If I was to pick a date now depending on a raft of results from various countries I'd say start of July before the klms restriction be lifted then look at others depending on outcome. 5th of May looks like pure madness

July?

Come July we'll be in the same situation as we are in May, no vaccine and no cure, relying entirely on social distancing to control this thing.

Why do you think you'll be any safer going outdoors in July vs May?

Cupatae

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Haha you haven't. You've concocted in your head the idea that supporting an indefinite lockdown is somehow wrong. It isn't. You've repeatedly associated with a permanent lockdown which it isn't, which is where I think you have confused yourself. Just accept what it is you really are; a supporter of an indefinite lockdown.

Yawn... more nonsense more lies.. you must be really salty that you caught yourself out with your own logic and embarrassed yourself as you simply cant let it go, As ive stated i decide what my stance on stuff is not you, and there is nothing you can do about it, you can keep repeating the same stuff it doesnt make it any truer

Beasty

Cupatae wrote: »

Nope, you are boring me now, ive repeatedly proven you wrong and you keep regurgitating the same stuff.

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Haha you haven't. You've concocted in your head the idea that supporting an indefinite lockdown is somehow wrong. It isn't. You've repeatedly associated with a permanent lockdown which it isn't, which is where I think you have confused yourself. Just accept what it is you really are; a supporter of an indefinite lockdown.

Cut out the bickering the pair of you or posting privileges will be removed

freak scence

JRant wrote: »

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

Interesting article from Israel. The head of their space program, who is a professor of mathematics, has run the numbers. He's claiming it's almost a set pattern. No matter the country or the measures used it's approximately 40 days to peak and 70 to almost gone.

**** Israel

BanditLuke

awec wrote: »

July?

Come July we'll be in the same situation as we are in May, no vaccine and no cure, relying entirely on social distancing to control this thing.

Why do you think you'll be any safer going outdoors in July vs May?

Where did I say it would be safer? You are a strange poster seeing things that aren't there.

awec

BanditLuke wrote: »

Where did I say it would be safer? You are a strange poster seeing things that aren't there.

Now you're being a pedant. Why did you say July? Surely, by suggesting we look at relaxing in July, you are implicitly suggesting it will be safer in July?

Otherwise why suggest a further 2 month wait?

BanditLuke

awec wrote: »

Now you're being a pedant. Why did you say July?

Did you read my post?

awec

BanditLuke wrote: »

Did you read my post?

Yes. You said July. I'm asking why.

Answer the question, stop dodging. Nobody has time for this little dance you do any time someone tries to clarify your posts.

BanditLuke

awec wrote: »

Yes. You said July.

Answer the question, stop dodging. Nobody has time for this little dance you do any time someone tries to clarify your posts.

Well if you read it stop asking the same question.

awec

BanditLuke wrote: »

Well if you read it stop asking the same question.

Hi BanditLuke,

Can you tell us all why you think the 2km limit should be lifted in July rather than May?

Thanks,
Everyone else on this thread.

Cyrus

awec wrote: »

Yes. You said July. I'm asking why.

Answer the question, stop dodging. Nobody has time for this little dance you do any time someone tries to clarify your posts.

he has been asked this before and didn't have an answer then either which would make you question his veracity

BanditLuke

awec wrote: »

Hi BanditLuke,

Can you tell us all why you think the 2km limit should be lifted in July rather than May?

Thanks,
Everyone else on this thread.

You now speak for everyone on the thread?

Read the post.

I won't be responding to you again in thread.

Ta

Cupatae

awec wrote: »

Now you're being a pedant. Why did you say July? Surely, by suggesting we look at relaxing in July, you are implicitly suggesting it will be safer in July?

Otherwise why suggest a further 2 month wait?

Did you not just trawl thru 3/4 days of my posts and take snippets and post em in an out of context manner, and u wanna talk about being pedant...:D

The difference between may and july? hopefully a lot less cases and alot more control over it.

I cant understand why people think there are "sides" in all this its abit ridiculous..

BanditLuke

Cyrus wrote: »

he has been asked this before and didn't have an answer then either which would make you question his veracity

When exactly? Be specific now please.

BanditLuke

Cupatae wrote: »

Did you not just trawl thru 3/4 days of my posts and take snippets and post em in an out of context manner, and u wanna talk about being pedant...:D

The difference between may and july? hopefully a lot less cases and alot more control over it.

Don't please. Leave him to it.

awec

BanditLuke wrote: »

You now speak for everyone on the thread?

Read the post.

I won't be responding to you again in thread.

Ta

Here's the post again, for your benefit and everyone else's. I have conveniently highlighted the part where you suggest lifting restrictions in July.

BanditLuke wrote: »

As I said already I'm a hurler on the ditch, I'll leave that in the hands of the experts.

If I was to pick a date now depending on a raft of results from various countries I'd say start of July before the klms restriction be lifted then look at others depending on outcome. 5th of May looks like pure madness

Can you highlight the bit where you explain why July makes more sense than May? For the benefit of the rest of us who are unfortunately having trouble keeping up with your thinking.

Beasty

Just because my prior warning only specifically referred to two posters does not mean that others should take up the bickering baton. The warning applies to everyone

Cyrus

BanditLuke wrote: »

When exactly? Be specific now please.

Read my posts.

I won't be responding to you again in thread.

Ta

alwald

awec wrote: »

Here's the post again, for your benefit and everyone else's. I have conveniently highlighted the part where you suggest lifting restrictions in July.

Can you highlight the bit where you explain why July makes more sense than May? For the benefit of the rest of us who are unfortunately having trouble keeping up with your thinking.

His answer is quite clear if you read his post fully :pac:

BanditLuke

easypazz wrote: »

I can't see this lockdown happening again.

They will have to let it rip at some point.

So let's say you are correct and the soft lockdown is relaxed and then numbers rocket again you just think the government and HSE will let that happen?

The transmission rate has fallen due to social distancing etc. Keeping the 2km limit for another 2 months would conceptually keep a large volume of people from parks, city centres, beauty spots etc.

I imagine it was introduced due to all the fncktards who congregated in the Wicklow mountains etc a few weekends ago.

By 5th May I'm hoping the transmission rate will be down to 0.5 or so.... That would if course facilitate easing of restrictions. I'm not sure the 2km thing will be one of the restrictions eased.....

Non essential workplaces reopening that can implement social distancing will be one of the first things IMO.