Relaxation of restrictions

polesheep

DeVore wrote: »

To be fair, that doesnt answer his question.

Very little of substance will have changed by June from May in terms of treatment or vaccine...

We will hopefully have crushed the curve so that some elements of society will return to something like normality but they dont all have the same "cost" in terms of infection spreading.

So, pubs are quite high in those "cost" terms. You could, for instance, have beaches AND parks for the cost of pubs. But not all three as that will accelerate the virus again and we're back to lockdown.
Does that make sense?

It would make sense if every one of us was as rational as a scientist is. We are not, though, we will drift back to normal at some point whether the authorities want us to or not. History has demonstrated this time and again. I'm sure the East German government thought the wall would be there forever.

robinph

easypazz wrote: »

Such as?

You must have missed the previous couple of pages about city centre pubs opening, big sporting events and festivals not being possible anytime soon.

Paddygreen

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But the WHO and others are warning that there might not ever be a vaccine

There will be a vaccine Bruv. The vaccine will be the key that unlocks the lockdown.

Cork Boy 53

Paddygreen wrote: »

No end in sight for lockdown until a mandatory vaccine programme has been completed. I am a fairly buff guy in my mid forties. I would gladly offer my services to the HSE to hold anti-vaxxers down while they get their shots.

But then you would be closer than 2 metres from them wouldn`t you? You could always use something like a cattle prod with a long extension handle to pin them down I suppose.

brick tamland

I love a pub as much as the next man but there is a fascination on here about getting the open asap, as much as id like a pint, it isn't my priority.

I'm hoping come May 5th my kids can play outside with their mates in small numbers as I fear for our sanity otherwise. Looks to me as if new studies should allow this as they seems to be minimal risk with kids. Here's hoping

Paddygreen

polesheep wrote: »

It would make sense if every one of us was as rational as a scientist is. We are not, though, we will drift back to normal at some point whether the authorities want us to or not. History has demonstrated this time and again. I'm sure the East German government thought the wall would be there forever.

The Berlin wall was there to keep capitalist spies out.

polesheep

robinph wrote: »

...and it's because humans are stupid that the lockdowns are needed, and then social distancing and other restrictions for certain activities until there is a vaccine.

"Everyone is stupid except me." Yeah, sure.

Paddygreen

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

But then you would be closer than 2 metres from them wouldn`t you? You could always use something like a cattle prod with a long extension handle to pin them down I suppose.

Obviously I would be in a hazmat suit.

Paddygreen

Paddygreen wrote: »

There will be a vaccine Bruv. The vaccine will be the key that unlocks the lockdown.

I thought there was no lockdown around your house?

youandme13

robinph wrote: »

Why not for schools?

At least for a school it is relatively easy to identify exactly who everyone had contact with on the way to and from school, and also whilst at school.
For an office you can identify who was in the office, but you can't identify who was on the public transport.

And what about schools that have over 1,500 children in it like my child's? Majority are local and walk or walk halfway so you've children and parents all walking on the paths together? Plus the secondary school pupils walking past going the opposite way! With over 30-35 per class not sure how your supposed to social distance and then the bathrooms, one male and one female toilet in each class.

Nitrogan

If getting people socialising and spending money is more important than risking human life then make drink driving legal.

easypazz

robinph wrote: »

You must have missed the previous couple of pages about city centre pubs opening, big sporting events and festivals not being possible anytime soon.

What if there is an instant test, everybody going into Croke park gets tested on the way in.

Or an effective treatment that slows it down.

brutes1

easypazz wrote: »

What if there is an instant test, everybody going into Croke park gets tested on the way in.

Or an effective treatment that slows it down.

An antidote to end the mass panic about Covid and return the population to its senses would be most welcome

Charles Babbage

polesheep wrote: »

What you really mean by that is that you want things to change. They won't. Human nature will return things to normal surprisingly quickly. It won't be long until those who are afraid will stay at home and those who aren't will go out. Then, soon after, everyone will start to go out again. The human race will not wait for a vaccine to start being human again.

People do not wish to die, nor are they happy to allow others kill them.

Nermal

Nitrogan wrote: »

If getting people socialising and spending money is more important than risking human life then make drink driving legal.

It is legal, up to a point. Because we're not Manicheist simpletons who are only capable of ranking priorities in order. We balance competing interests.

robinph

youandme13 wrote: »

And what about schools that have over 1,500 children in it like my child's? Majority are local and walk or walk halfway so you've children and parents all walking on the paths together? Plus the secondary school pupils walking past going the opposite way! With over 30-35 per class not sure how your supposed to social distance and then the bathrooms, one male and one female toilet in each class.

What about people walking to school? They are outside and nobody is in contact with anyone outside their own family. If someone walks past in the other direction then there is negligible contact risk. Then in the classes with a bit of reorganisation you can limit inter class mingling.

Public transport where everyone is in close contact for a long duration and breathing the same air onto each other is a vastly higher risk.

Ferris_Bueller

robinph wrote: »

Why not for schools?

At least for a school it is relatively easy to identify exactly who everyone had contact with on the way to and from school, and also whilst at school.
For an office you can identify who was in the office, but you can't identify who was on the public transport.

Yes you are probably spot on with offices, I'm sure they could come to some compromise with spacing, shifts, working from home, etc.

I can't see it for schools though, say for example a school with 700 odd students and 80 staff. How would they enforce social distancing there? Classrooms probably aren't physically big enough, coming in and going home from school every day would be difficult with that volume, hygiene standards in the classroom and toilet would be very hard to keep up, not to mention how do you avoid the teacher/other children coming into contact with one another over the course of the day.

I can't imagine an environment that would be more contagious than a school. I'm not saying the schools won't open, they will and they should, but if they can do it then almost any other type of business or service should be able to as well.

robinph

easypazz wrote: »

What if there is an instant test, everybody going into Croke park gets tested on the way in.

Or an effective treatment that slows it down.

Until then though nothing changes to what people have been saying thar events like that are just not happening.

Also, even with an "instant" test your looking at an extra 30 seconds to a minute at best to test each person. And an army of people to administer the tests. For 50,000 people even if it's only 30 seconds per test is 400+ hours to test them all, how many gates to get into Croke Park?

People would have to be queuing up and getting tested from several days beforehand.

DeVore

Why not kill the 3000 billionaires on the Forbes list. They have 7 Trillion between them.
Kill them (its only 3000 deaths) take their money, stay in lock down until a treatment, vaccine or heard immunity allows us to return. Live on their money and use the rest to kick start the economy.

Can anyone give me an argument against this that isnt as immoral as "I want to restart the economy, so what if more people die than necessary?"

Nermal

DeVore wrote: »

Why not kill the 3000 billionaires on the Forbes list. They have 7 Trillion between them.
Kill them (its only 3000 deaths) take their money, stay in lock down until a treatment, vaccine or heard immunity allows us to return. Live on their money and use the rest to kick start the economy.

Can anyone give me an argument against this that isnt as immoral as "I want to restart the economy, so what if more people die than necessary?"

Dark! I like your style though.

Irish Aris

ZX7R wrote: »

Music,gigs/ concerts might be able to come back sooner , depending on the implementation of social distancing.
Gone would be for one night only thing
They could be run over a number of nights.
It would depend on the artist been able to perform like that

As a frequent concert goer I would definitely welcome that.
But I really can't see how most venues could implement any type of social distancing.

Places that have a seating capacity like the National Concert Hall, Bord Gais Theatre (and possibly Olympia and 3Arena to a certain extend) could do some social distancing by reducling the capacity to half or 1/3 or something like that.

Venues like Whelan's, Workman's club, The Academy etc, less so. And open air gigs. . . well, no chance I would say.

In any case, I can't see any concerts happening any time soon. If things improve dramatically, maybe after September, but most likely next year. I was talking to a colleague from Belgium and their government advised that no big gatherings until end of August, so the big summer festivals have started cancelling.

stephenjmcd

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1252607826452713472?s=19

growleaves

DeVore,

Only a few short weeks ago I was trying to explain to you that Neil Ferguson's models weren't necessarily correct.

You ran with a whole series of explications of wrong statistical models to stop "people who want the economy restarted" (words to those effect)

Now you're saying that people who don't support a controversial and unproven public health strategy are equivalent to thieves and murderers.

Propagandistic in the extreme. I hope too many people aren't taken in by it.

KrustyUCC

brick tamland wrote: »

I love a pub as much as the next man but there is a fascination on here about getting the open asap, as much as id like a pint, it isn't my priority.

I'm hoping come May 5th my kids can play outside with their mates in small numbers as I fear for our sanity otherwise. Looks to me as if new studies should allow this as they seems to be minimal risk with kids. Here's hoping

Good post

The roadmap from Varadkar and Co will be interesting

The opening up of travel is the one I'm most looking forward to

Being able to get in a car to travel to see friends, family and relationships

No reason why that can't be done in a socially distanced way

I'd love to be able to even go to gates of a house and see people in person

growleaves

Juicing The Numbers, Prolonging The Pain

Last week we saw that we went from dying from, to dying with, to just plain dying. Even people who haven’t been tested are now classed as dying from coronavirus. This is juicing the numbers in the direction of the models. Whether this was intentional, to avoid confessing to the most colossal and costly blown forecast of all time, or this is more panicked over-reaction, I’ll let you decide. Either way, they did get a boost in the numbers from the re-definitions, which we’ll see below.

We saw yesterday that counting who dies of flu or any virus is not so straightforward, that it’s always the result of a statistical model. Every single flu death is not trumpeted from every media organ for months on end, but if they were, then we’d have counts similar to the way we have counts for coronavirus.

ixoy

I imagine insurance firms will have a say here - They won't want to insure a venue that can be seen as deliberately causing risk. So that will likely apply to pubs, concerts etc where it will be very difficult to keep people apart.

Restaurants at least can put in some measures.

Breezin

DeVore wrote: »

Why not kill the 3000 billionaires on the Forbes list. They have 7 Trillion between them.
Kill them (its only 3000 deaths) take their money, stay in lock down until a treatment, vaccine or heard immunity allows us to return. Live on their money and use the rest to kick start the economy.

Can anyone give me an argument against this that isnt as immoral as "I want to restart the economy, so what if more people die than necessary?"

Only 3,000? Hmmm... :P

Paddygreen

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Good post

The roadmap from Varadkar and Co will be interesting

The opening up of travel is the one I'm most looking forward to

Being able to get in a car to travel to see friends, family and relationships

No reason why that can't be done in a socially distanced way

I'd love to be able to even go to gates of a house and see people in person

Suck it up bruv, that's not allowed. As I keep reminding the outsiders from more than 2km from my estate who are taking advantage of our green area with dogs and snotbox kids- clear off, get out of here, excuse me, what's your air code, I have even learned how to say go away in Polish

KrustyUCC

Ha nice post troll

Not allowed currently which is why I'm not doing those things

drunkmonkey

lord quackinton wrote: »

We are told the law backs our right to choose
It’s our body it’s our choice

I going to be honest to all of you
I will be joining a few boys in a pub this Friday for lots of beers
Lock in

It’s not breaking the law as we are carrying out an extensive survey on the property

Tipp hurling classics will be on the television

I will enjoy thank you

I met a publican lodging money this morning, the premier will bate the lockdowners out with sticks yet, hon Tipp:D