Relaxation of restrictions

niallo27

6 wrote: »

Is it? Researchers say that the virus can damage your heart even if you recover. Hardly a great public health policy.

I heard a possibility of your lungs being affected but nothing about your heart.

Gael23

6 wrote: »

Is it? Researchers say that the virus can damage your heart even if you recover. Hardly a great public health policy.

Well these restrictions for 18 months are not viable

KiKi III

Herd immunity also assumes there is only one strain of the virus, and getting it gives you the antibodies that mean you don't get it again.

This has not been proven.

It's very possible that there's more than one strain, which is why we've already seen some people get it twice: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-japan-woman-tests-positive-twice-osaka-olympics-china-a9362421.html

This is why the countries who initially pursued 'herd immunity' have backtracked.

niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

Herd immunity also assumes there is only one strain of the virus, and getting it gives you the antibodies that mean you don't get it again.

This has not been proven.

It's very possible that there's more than one strain, which is why we've already seen some people get it twice: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-japan-woman-tests-positive-twice-osaka-olympics-china-a9362421.html

This is why the countries who initially pursued 'herd immunity' have backtracked.

That was more than likely a false negative in fairness, that article is from 2 months ago. If people were getting it again it would be all over the news. The reason herd immunity is not being followed is because of the strain on hospitals not because of the risk of no immunity.

lainey_d_123

VinLieger wrote: »

A vaccine and/or effective therepeutic treatment.

Relying on herd immunity absent of either of them is imbecilic.

So what is going to happen? We'll all sit at home for 18 months until the vaccine is approved and then we'll all go and get it at the same time? Will we fcuk.

KiKi III wrote: »

And I didn't say all good, back to normal after 8 weeks.

I think at that point most things would start to go back to normal but I'd be very surprised to see gigs/ festivals/ sports events happening this side of September.

And how would they go back to normal, Kiki, if no concept of 'herd immunity' is being relied on at that point? Your logic has more holes in it than Swiss cheese. You simultaneously say we need to wait for a vaccine or effective treatment, and that we'll start to go back to normal a good year before those things are going to be feasible. Which is it?

6 wrote: »

Is it? Researchers say that the virus can damage your heart even if you recover. Hardly a great public health policy.

And nevertheless a huge proportion of people are going to get it at some point.

PMBC

Sorry for being pedantic but its 2.1 billion and your point is well made.
Take away from that the 200,000 long term unemployed at say E200 per week for 12 weeks gives a payout increase of 1.62 billion. Since that money is for basic living all of it, 90% anyway, will be spent on goods with vat at 23%. i.e vat return to the state of about 300 million. The increase to the state is about 1.3 billion. OS to keep the extra 300,000 unemployed Covid workers with money for living for 12 weeks will cost that small amount. By which time, hopefully some at least will be back to work. Also the money spent will keep other people in work in supermarkets and shops some of whom will pay tax.
Its a reasonable cast for the state to pay to help remediate the problem and keep the lid on social unrest.
Lets not forget all of these people including myself want to work.

ZX7R

KiKi III wrote: »

In the past couple of days you've compared your idea for what's workable to smoking, one of the deadliest habits in the world, and people dying in car crashes.

Surely when your "solution" is comparable to these things you should know it's not a good one.

To be fair a lot of the medical reports on the affects of the virus on the human organs that came out from China early in the spread of it, have Come under heavy scrutiny from there European counterparts and a lot of the reports have been found to be wanting to say the least.
Plenty of European scientific papers released questioning the legitimately of the Chinese papers.

lainey_d_123

KiKi III wrote: »

Herd immunity also assumes there is only one strain of the virus, and getting it gives you the antibodies that mean you don't get it again.

This has not been proven.

It's very possible that there's more than one strain, which is why we've already seen some people get it twice: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-japan-woman-tests-positive-twice-osaka-olympics-china-a9362421.html

This is why the countries who initially pursued 'herd immunity' have backtracked.

They backtracked because relying on it NOW would result in mayhem. Nobody has said it won't be the main strategy down the line, once more and more people have had the virus.

KiKi III

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

And how would they go back to normal, Kiki, if no concept of 'herd immunity' is being relied on at that point? Your logic has more holes in it than Swiss cheese. You simultaneously say we need to wait for a vaccine or effective treatment, and that we'll start to go back to normal a good year before those things are going to be feasible. Which is it?

Here's how, Lainey. I know this might sound crazy, but the idea is to stop the spread.

So in one week, the virus is due to peak, and after 2-3 weeks the numbers start to drop. By the end of 8 weeks, five weeks of a continuous drop in cases, the spread is contained (not eliminated, but contained) and things can start to go back to normal.

So this week and next week we might continue seeing 400-500 cases per day, and after that it starts to decline to a point where things can reopen.

The goal is that most people never get it, not that everyone gets it. That's abundantly clear from everything the government, the HSE and the WHO are saying.

KiKi III

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

They backtracked because relying on it NOW would result in mayhem. Nobody has said it won't be the main strategy down the line, once more and more people have had the virus.

Nobody has said it will be the main strategy at any point. You just decided that's what you think should happen, with all your expertise. No health expert is advocating this approach.

odyssey06

PMBC wrote: »

Sorry for being pedantic but its 2.1 billion and your point is well made.
Take away from that the 200,000 long term unemployed at say E200 per week for 12 weeks gives a payout increase of 1.62 billion. Since that money is for basic living all of it, 90% anyway, will be spent on goods with vat at 23%. i.e vat return to the state of about 300 million. The increase to the state is about 1.3 billion. OS to keep the extra 300,000 unemployed Covid workers with money for living for 12 weeks will cost that small amount. By which time, hopefully some at least will be back to work. Also the money spent will keep other people in work in supermarkets and shops some of whom will pay tax.
Its a reasonable cast for the state to pay to help remediate the problem and keep the lid on social unrest.
Lets not forget all of these people including myself want to work.

The projected exchequer impact is 24 billion. I've several times quoted from the actual government projections and people continue to make up numbers on the fly instead.
Your VAT figures don't add up either, look at your next shopping receipt for all the items not subject to VAT.

IAMAMORON

odyssey06 wrote: »

The projected exchequer impact is 24 billion. I've several times quoted from the actual government projections and people continue to make up numbers on the fly instead.
Your VAT figures don't add up either, look at your next shopping receipt for all the items not subject to VAT.

Where did you get the 24 billion figure from? I have not seen it, can you post a link please?

Is there VAT on Bog Roll, Wine and Coca Cola?

What about roast chicken?

Henry Ford III

Too much guesswork going on and too many have a go experts.

If the pandemic is still increasing in numbers infected (which it is seemingly) then there's no reason to expect any easing or relexation of restrictions.

That would be really silly.

granturismo

KiKi III wrote: »

..., but the idea is to stop the spread.

So in one week, the virus is due to peak, and after 2-3 weeks the numbers start to drop. By the end of 8 weeks, five weeks of a continuous drop in cases, the spread is contained (not eliminated, but contained) and things can start to go back to normal.

So this week and next week we might continue seeing 400-500 cases per day, and after that it starts to decline to a point where things can reopen.

The goal is that most people never get it, not that everyone gets it. That's abundantly clear from everything the government, the HSE and the WHO are saying.

The goal is not to stop the spread - but to slow the spread. Its impossible to stop unless we all go to full self isolation.

lainey_d_123

KiKi III wrote: »

Here's how, Lainey. I know this might sound crazy, but the idea is to stop the spread.

So in one week, the virus is due to peak, and after 2-3 weeks the numbers start to drop. By the end of 8 weeks, five weeks of a continuous drop in cases, the spread is contained (not eliminated, but contained) and things can start to go back to normal.

So this week and next week we might continue seeing 400-500 cases per day, and after that it starts to decline to a point where things can reopen.

The goal is that most people never get it, not that everyone gets it. That's abundantly clear from everything the government, the HSE and the WHO are saying.

I never said 'everyone' would get it. That's not what herd immunity is. If you think that it won't be a significant proportion of the population, you're very wrong. How do you think it's going to continue circulating when most people go back to work and socialising without a significant number of people getting it?

lainey_d_123

KiKi III wrote: »

Nobody has said it will be the main strategy at any point. You just decided that's what you think should happen, with all your expertise. No health expert is advocating this approach.

Condescending, given you have no idea who I know or what information I have access to, but let's wait and see. I'd argue that it's pure common sense, given that there's literally no other option, but common sense apparently isn't that common. No wonder you're so chirpy about the lockdown if you think this will mostly just blow over in 8 weeks.

The British government is currently in the process of trialling an antibody test, which could indicate whether a person has previously suffered and recovered from the coronavirus.

During the daily press conference on the coronavirus on Tuesday 24 March, health secretary Hancock said the test “will allow people to see whether they have had the virus and are immune to it and then can get back to work”.

“We expect people not to be able to catch it, except in very exceptional circumstances, for a second time,” he said.

“I suspect it will become what’s called endemic where the virus circulates forever into the future, and in those circumstances in the future herd immunity will have a big impact,” the professor says.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-herd-immunity-meaning-definition-what-vaccine-immune-covid-19-a9397871.html

IAMAMORON

KiKi III wrote: »

The goal is that most people never get it, not that everyone gets it. That's abundantly clear from everything the government, the HSE and the WHO are saying.

Without a vaccine or herd immunity ( no shouting please it is a thing ) , about 80% of people will be infected. Look at the death rates in Italy and Spain. This virus is a killer.

If everyone is allowed back out to play again in June we could easily have an epicentre in Ireland by August. The virus will not back down, it keeps coming like a bad bogey man. You can hide under the bed for months, it will still be in the room when you look up.

The lockdown is only postponing infections.

lainey_d_123

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Without a vaccine or herd immunity ( no shouting please it is a thing ) , about 80% of people will be infected. Look at the death rates in Italy and Spain. This virus is a killer.

If everyone is allowed back out to play again in June we could easily have an epicentre in Ireland by August. The virus will not back down, it keeps coming like a bad bogey man. You can hide under the bed for months, it will still be in the room when you look up.

The lockdown is only postponing infections.

I find it absolutely mind boggling that anyone could honestly think otherwise.

How can someone possibly think that things can go back to normal in the summer AND that a significant number of people won't catch it? Does she think it's just going to stay at a nice, low level and play ball, to reward us for our social distancing efforts?

I know this is what the government WANTS us to think, to keep people compliant now, but it's shocking to see that people actually believe it.

PMBC

PMBC wrote: »

Sorry for being pedantic but its 2.1 billion and your point is well made.
Take away from that the 200,000 long term unemployed at say E200 per week for 12 weeks gives a payout increase of 1.62 billion. Since that money is for basic living all of it, 90% anyway, will be spent on goods with vat at 23%. i.e vat return to the state of about 300 million. The increase to the state is about 1.3 billion. OS to keep the extra 300,000 unemployed Covid workers with money for living for 12 weeks will cost that small amount. By which time, hopefully some at least will be back to work. Also the money spent will keep other people in work in supermarkets and shops some of whom will pay tax.
Its a reasonable cast for the state to pay to help remediate the problem and keep the lid on social unrest.
Lets not forget all of these people including myself want to work.

Correction - a lot of food items are zero vat rated

ThewhiteJesus

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Without a vaccine or herd immunity ( no shouting please it is a thing ) , about 80% of people will be infected. Look at the death rates in Italy and Spain. This virus is a killer.

If everyone is allowed back out to play again in June we could easily have an epicentre in Ireland by August. The virus will not back down, it keeps coming like a bad bogey man. You can hide under the bed for months, it will still be in the room when you look up.

The lockdown is only postponing infections.

Sorry Kiki but the moron is right here, no matter what happens most of the country will get this, it's about slowing it down so our hospitals and icu's can cope bit by bit. We simply don't have the ventilators available at the moment

IAMAMORON

PMBC wrote: »

Correction - a lot of food items are zero vat rated

which ones?

lainey_d_123

ThewhiteJesus wrote: »

Sorry Kiki but the moron is right here, no matter what happens most of the country will get this, it's about slowing it down so our hospitals and icu's can cope bit by bit. We simply don't have the ventilators available at the moment

It's becoming apparent how many of the 'we're doing this for the vulnerable and elderly' crowd are actually afraid of getting sick themselves. Which is fine, but like, just fcking admit it.

The reality is that most of us will spend months locked down and then will get the virus anyway after restrictions are lifted. The plan isn't to keep us ALL safe. It's to reduce strain on the health services when it's at its worst and nobody is immune yet. Once the initial spike has been dealt with and more people have gotten sick and recovered, then it's going to keep going round and round like any other virus does, for months. People will keep getting it, people will keep dying from it. They just might have more chance when there are ventilators available.

I find some people's naïveté to be really quite shocking.

Bobeagleburger

easypazz wrote: »

Lots of things can damage your vital organs, there will always be an attrition rate with everything, it just has to be tolerable.

Lots of people die from smoking but its not banned.

Your comparison doesn't make sense. Who's trying to ban the virus?

Thelonious Monk

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

It's becoming apparent how many of the 'we're doing this for the vulnerable and elderly' crowd are actually afraid of getting sick themselves. Which is fine, but like, just fcking admit it.

The reality is that most of us will spend months locked down and then will get the virus anyway after restrictions are lifted. The plan isn't to keep us ALL safe. It's to reduce strain on the health services when it's at its worst and nobody is immune yet. Once the initial spike has been dealt with and more people have gotten sick and recovered, then it's going to keep going round and round like any other virus does, for months. People will keep getting it, people will keep dying from it. They just might have more chance when there are ventilators available.

I find some people's naïveté to be really quite shocking.

I'm not in the least bit worried about getting the virus, as it's very unlikely it would do any damage (fingers crossed).
Lainey you seem to really know what you're talking about, maybe give Dr Tony or Simon Harris a call and tell them they're doing it all wrong?

lainey_d_123

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I'm not in the least bit worried about getting the virus, as it's very unlikely it would do any damage (fingers crossed).
Lainey you seem to really know what you're talking about, maybe give Dr Tony or Simon Harris a call and tell them they're doing it all wrong?

Who says they're doing it wrong? Who has proposed a total lockdown until a vaccine is found?

ThewhiteJesus

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I'm not in the least bit worried about getting the virus, as it's very unlikely it would do any damage (fingers crossed).
Lainey you seem to really know what you're talking about, maybe give Dr Tony or Simon Harris a call and tell them they're doing it all wrong?

I work in the HSE monk, and Lainey's post is accurate

lainey_d_123

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Who says they're doing it wrong? Who has proposed a total lockdown until a vaccine is found?

Don't think anyone is proposing that. Things like distancing will still most likely remain to some extent for a year. There will be no herd immunity until a vaccine comes into existence. A large proportion of the population getting it is not preferred...

Thelonious Monk

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Who says they're doing it wrong? Who has proposed a total lockdown until a vaccine is found?

I read your post wrong, apologies.

lainey_d_123

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't think anyone is proposing that. Things like distancing will still most likely remain to some extent for a year. There will be no herd immunity until a vaccine comes into existence. A large proportion of the population getting it is not preferred...

But it will happen. Because there is literally no other way.

easypazz

KiKi III wrote: »

In the past couple of days you've compared your idea for what's workable to smoking, one of the deadliest habits in the world, and people dying in car crashes.

Surely when your "solution" is comparable to these things you should know it's not a good one.

What is the difference between my solution and yours? Gradual easing of restrictions.