Relaxation of restrictions

Stheno

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

But it will happen. Because there is literally no other way.

Antibody testing may show a large % of the population were infected but asymptomatic studies show figures of 25-50% of those who tested positive to fall into this category

Finding an effective treatment from repurposed drugs would reduce the severity and strain on the health system. There are multiple trials currently underway

Both of these would make a significant difference to the impact of this virus on society

lainey_d_123

Stheno wrote: »

Antibody testing may show a large % of the population were infected but asymptomatic studies show figures of 25-50% of those who tested positive to fall into this category

Finding an effective treatment from repurposed drugs would reduce the severity and strain on the health system. There are multiple trials currently underway

Both of these would make a significant difference to the impact of this virus on society

Sure, but none of this things address the fact that most people are expected to get it.

Stheno

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Sure, but none of this things address the fact that most people are expected to get it.

Eh did you even read my first point??

lainey_d_123

Stheno wrote: »

Eh did you even read my first point??

The lack of punctuation makes it hard to read, but from what I can make out, it supports my point that most people are expected to get it? Including those who have already had it, obviously.

You said nothing at all to support the idea that most people WON'T get this.

Stheno

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

The lack of punctuation makes it hard to read, but from what I can make out, it supports my point that most people are expected to get it? Including those who have already had it, obviously.

You said nothing at all to support the idea that most people WON'T get this.

Grand.

kieran.

KiKi III wrote: »

..... I'd be very surprised to see gigs/ festivals/ sports events happening this side of September.

Electric picnicers will be happy with this!

lainey_d_123

Stheno wrote: »

Grand.

I said that there's no other way to move forward other than most people getting the virus.

You say that:

- antibody tests are expected to show a large percentage of people infected but asymptomatic
- treatments should reduce the effects of the virus

How do any of those things contradict what I said? It's irrelevant whether there's a treatment or a lot of people won't show symptoms. The fact is, most of us are expected to get it, and that's part of the plan. Neither of the points you made show otherwise.

odyssey06

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Where did you get the 24 billion figure from? I have not seen it, can you post a link please?
Is there VAT on Bog Roll, Wine and Coca Cola?
What about roast chicken?

Source for €24 billion cost to the Exchequer:
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0402/1128100-exchequer-figures/

0% VAT applies to bread milk vegetables fruit meat baby products, your 'essentials':
https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/duties_and_vat/value_added_tax.html

The tax take for supermarket bought alcohol is significant (something like 40% as an approx rule of thumb) but as the price paid is multiples lower than in pubs, restaurants if we are all drinking at home there'll be a lot less VAT and excise revenue.

easypazz

odyssey06 wrote: »

Source for €24 billion cost to the Exchequer:
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0402/1128100-exchequer-figures/

0% VAT applies to bread milk vegetables fruit meat baby products, your 'essentials':
https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/duties_and_vat/value_added_tax.html

The tax take for supermarket bought alcohol is significant (something like 40% as an approx rule of thumb) but as the price paid is multiples lower than in pubs, restaurants if we are all drinking at home there'll be a lot less VAT and excise revenue.

A lot of supermarket alcohol is sold at close to cost so the vat take is poor. Duty is still paid though as a fixed amount.

KiKi III

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I find it absolutely mind boggling that anyone could honestly think otherwise.

How can someone possibly think that things can go back to normal in the summer AND that a significant number of people won't catch it? Does she think it's just going to stay at a nice, low level and play ball, to reward us for our social distancing efforts?

I know this is what the government WANTS us to think, to keep people compliant now, but it's shocking to see that people actually believe it.

Have a look at what’s happening in South Korea, Singapore and Wuhan. The virus has been contained and things are reopening. That’s the goal. According to every government minister and health official. So forgive me if I don’t take your word over theirs.

And the absolute cheek of you to call me condescending. You can’t seem to post without insulting the intelligence of anyone who disagrees with you.

ITman88

KiKi III wrote: »

Have a look at what’s happening in South Korea, Singapore and Wuhan. The virus has been contained and things are reopening. That’s the goal. According to every government minister and health official. So forgive me if I don’t take your word over theirs.

And the absolute cheek of you to call me condescending. You can’t seem to post without insulting the intelligence of anyone who disagrees with you.

You’re correct apart from Singapore, it never shutdown.
The airports were closed but schools and business remained open the last I had seen.

It’s a very in interesting approach, one we need to implement here for future outbreaks.

jmayo

hmmm wrote: »

Agreed. No public health professional is saying that a lockdown can be anything other than temporary. The country cannot afford an 18 month lockdown until a vaccine emerges.

The only solution is testing, contact tracing and some social distancing. I expect we will be asking the most vulnerable groups to stay indoors - unfortunate, but what can we do? I also expect that immunity testing will start, and those people will be allowed go straight back to work.

For any one that iams just let the old and compromised stay in lockdown, it is not that simple
Yes a lot of old people live alone, but with no real social distancing i.e no shutdown then they dare not go out at all.

As for the ones with respiratory difficulties like asthma or CF.
A lot of those live with families and are they all supposed to lock down too or just maybe shove the poor compromised ones to the garden shed.

And let me tell you this any long term smokers out there, no matter how old and supposed health you are, you better be worried.
Should all the smokers stay at home in lockdown as well ?

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

This is the typical answer given by people with limited intelligence, life experience and empathy.

It doesn't help that so many people think they're mentally ill when they're stressed/tired/a bit down. If the 'treatment' for your 'illness' is an hour of talking to a therapist once a week, you're not f**king ill. You're a normal person having a bit of a hard time.

You want to know what ill looks like? I had a friend on the phone for almost two hours on Thursday. He's suffered from OCD for years following a traumatic incident, and this situation has hugely triggered it, at the same time that he's no longer able to go to his targeted therapy or hospital. He went to the shop to get some food on Thursday morning and spent over two hours washing, disinfecting and sanitising every single one of the packages, over and over again, and then another hour washing his hands until they were cracked and bleeding. His girlfriend can't take any more of the obsessions and compulsions and has moved out, and he's been seriously considering suicide for at least a week because he just can't see any way out. He's spent time in mental health units before but that's not an option at the moment. His entire support system is now completely gone. He hasn't slept in days and his physical health is in tatters as well now.

So maybe people who think they're ill because they get a bit anxious now and then should wise the f**k up and realise that some people have genuine, desperate problems that aren't solved by going for a nice walk or reading a book.

Deleted User wrote: »

Agree 100%. Someone close to me has suffered from a chronic anxiety condition for the last 10 years, and has prescription sedatives to help cope. Imagine, if you are able, how debilitating the anxiety attacks must be, now that this has been heaped upon her. The only thing that keeps these attacks at bay is movement, whether long (and i mean very long) bouts of exercise, or travel to different environments periodically. Right now, her days are consumed by anxiety and nervous energy and we are trying desperately to avoid her getting addicted to sedatives

Have either of you thought that shutdown/lockdown or not these people have serious issues that will not fooking magically disappear until the threat of covid19 is eliminated ?

They still will be in fear, will still be washing themselves raw, because now people are back out and about, free to transmit it openly once again because restrictions have been lifted.
If anything they will probably be worse off.

And if and when everything is back open the hospitals will be full of very sick people and you think they can go there for help.

Yet these type of mentally ill people are being used as an excuse to open things up. :rolleyes:

Maybe next time don't use people with anxiety or OCD cleaners as examples of the ones whose mental health will be helped by having wholesale infections in the community.

I really despair at what this country has produced.

Nermal

KiKi III wrote: »

Have a look at what’s happening in South Korea, Singapore and Wuhan. The virus has been contained and things are reopening. That’s the goal. According to every government minister and health official. So forgive me if I don’t take your word over theirs.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/03/singapore-shuts-schools-temporarily-closes-workplaces-to-curb-coronavirus.html

Have a look yourself. Containment/suppression is a failure.

Stheno

ITman88 wrote: »

You’re correct apart from Singapore, it never shutdown.
The airports were closed but schools and business remained open the last I had seen.

It’s a very in interesting approach, one we need to implement here for future outbreaks.

Singapore shut all schools and non essential offices today fearing a second outbreak

I think people are putting too much emphasis on a vaccine solution. We know that is too far down the road and no guarantee how effective it is.
What we should be concentrating on is an effective treatment plan which will save lives and reduce the seriousness of the illness.
See below for one of many examples of studies looking at an effective treatment:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v2

ITman88

Stheno wrote: »

Singapore shut all schools and non essential offices today fearing a second outbreak

Oh, as I said last I had read.

Very low death rate though

KiKi III

Stheno wrote: »

Singapore shut all schools and non essential offices today fearing a second outbreak

Good to know. That would likely end up happening here too if we relax the restrictions too soon.

easypazz

KiKi III wrote: »

Good to know. That would likely end up happening here too if we relax the restrictions too soon.

Even if we get the all clear the risk is imported cases.

Herd immunity and early cocooning should assist with the second wave if it comes.

lainey_d_123

KiKi III wrote: »

Have a look at what’s happening in South Korea, Singapore and Wuhan. The virus has been contained and things are reopening. That’s the goal. According to every government minister and health official. So forgive me if I don’t take your word over theirs.

And the absolute cheek of you to call me condescending. You can’t seem to post without insulting the intelligence of anyone who disagrees with you.

It's condescending to assume that someone has no information or knowledge about a topic just because they don't agree with you, yes. You have yet to show me where I've said something inaccurate, and a poster working in the HSE has confirmed that what I'm saying is right, so yes, it is condescending to respond as if I have no idea what I'm talking about, when I very much do.

You seem to conflate 'contained' with 'no further risk'. That's not how it works. Of course things are reopening in those places, because as I've been saying all along, that HAS to happen. You can't keep a place locked down indefinitely. That doesn't mean that the virus won't crop up and spread again, it just means they're confident that they have the resources to be able to deal with it the best they can. All of these places are going to see numbers rise again, and people will keep getting sick and people will keep dying.

You seem to think that after X weeks of lockdown, things will open up and the risk will mostly be gone. No. That's not how it works, and it's not the intention. It's most likely what governments want people to think, because saying 'we want you to stay in for X weeks, but you'll probably get the virus after that anyway and you might die from it' isn't quite as appealing as letting people think it will all be grand. All statistics and all methodology point towards an assumption that the majority of people will be infected, asymptomatic or not, at one stage or another.

KiKi III

easypazz wrote: »

Even if we get the all clear the risk is imported cases.

Herd immunity and early cocooning should assist with the second wave if it comes.

If herd immunity is a good solution, why isn't any health expert in Ireland advocating it? Why do you think you know more about this than people who have dedicated their entire lives to studying and working in the fields of infectious diseases.

By the way, two people under the age of 34 have now died in Ireland.

St.Spodo

The biggest scientific journal in the world gives evidence that masks are effective in stopping the transmission of viruses like Coronavirus.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/03/world/asia/03reuters-health-coronavirus-masks-science.html

We all know that there won't be a vaccine in the short term. Could mask-wearing play a central role in allowing us to return to something like our normal lives?

KiKi III

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

It's condescending to assume that someone has no information or knowledge about a topic just because they don't agree with you, yes. You have yet to show me where I've said something inaccurate, and a poster working in the HSE has confirmed that what I'm saying is right, so yes, it is condescending to respond as if I have no idea what I'm talking about, when I very much do.

You seem to conflate 'contained' with 'no further risk'. That's not how it works. Of course things are reopening in those places, because as I've been saying all along, that HAS to happen. You can't keep a place locked down indefinitely. That doesn't mean that the virus won't crop up and spread again, it just means they're confident that they have the resources to be able to deal with it the best they can. All of these places are going to see numbers rise again, and people will keep getting sick and people will keep dying.

You seem to think that after X weeks of lockdown, things will open up and the risk will mostly be gone. No. That's not how it works, and it's not the intention. It's most likely what governments want people to think, because saying 'we want you to stay in for X weeks, but you'll probably get the virus after that anyway and you might die from it' isn't quite as appealing as letting people think it will all be grand. All statistics and all methodology point towards an assumption that the majority of people will be infected, asymptomatic or not, at one stage or another.

In almost all my posts, I have provided links to experts who are providing the guidance to government. You have offered no links, no evidence and when asked for it you just say "it's obvious", "it's common sense". And yet no experts share your view.

I'm supposed to believe Lainey on Boards over Tony Holohan, am I?

lainey_d_123

KiKi III wrote: »

If herd immunity is a good solution, why isn't any health expert in Ireland advocating it? Why do you think you know more about this than people who have dedicated their entire lives to studying and working in the fields of infectious diseases.

By the way, two people under the age of 34 have now died in Ireland.

You don't seem to be able to understand the difference between proposing herd immunity at the very start of an outbreak, when virtually nobody is immune yet, and it being the obvious (if not only) approach later on when a large proportion of people have already been infected and antibody tests are widely available.

This is a crucial difference which you appear to keep ignoring.

KiKi III

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

You don't seem to be able to understand the difference between proposing herd immunity at the very start of an outbreak, when virtually nobody is immune yet, and it being the obvious (if not only) approach later on when a large proportion of people have already been infected and antibody tests are widely available.

This is a crucial difference which you appear to keep ignoring.

Can you provide a link to the health expert or organisation you're getting your information from?

lainey_d_123

KiKi III wrote: »

In almost all my posts, I have provided links to experts who are providing the guidance to government. You have offered no links, no evidence and when asked for it you just say "it's obvious", "it's common sense". And yet no experts share your view.

I'm supposed to believe Lainey on Boards over Tony Holohan, am I?

I couldn't care less whether you believe me or not.

How would you know who shared this view? As far as I can see, concrete plans for ending lockdown and after it have not been made public yet. Not one thing you have posted points towards what I have said being untrue, and you have been unable to explain how you think it's going to work.

You simultaneously think we can open things up by the end of the summer, and that most people aren't going to get this virus. Would you not ask yourself how both these things can possibly be true?

ITman88

KiKi III wrote: »

By the way, two people under the age of 34 have now died in Ireland.

While that is sad, it’s in no way unusual for a respiratory infection in Ireland.

KiKi III

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I couldn't care less whether you believe me or not.

How would you know who shared this view? As far as I can see, concrete plans for ending lockdown and after it have not been made public yet. Not one thing you have posted points towards what I have said being untrue, and you have been unable to explain how you think it's going to work.

You simultaneously think we can open things up by the end of the summer, and that most people aren't going to get this virus. Would you not ask yourself how both these things can possibly be true?

Here's the difference between me and you Lainey: I know I don't have all the answers. That's why I'm placing my faith in the doctors, epidemiologists, government officials and economists who are experts in their fields.

lainey_d_123

KiKi III wrote: »

Here's the difference between me and you Lainey: I know I don't have all the answers. That's why I'm placing my faith in the doctors, epidemiologists, government officials and economists who are experts in their fields.

So am I. I have never once said that any of these people are dealing with this in the wrong way.

What's worrying is that you don't seem to get the concept of withholding information for a reason, or staggering publicising of plans. You are taking everything at face value and not questioning what's NOT there.

You have also not been able to explain how you think things are going to work, if most of us aren't going to get the virus and herd immunity isn't going to be an approach. If you disagree with me, then what do you think is going to happen? Where is the evidence that this is NOT the case?

KiKi III

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

So am I. I have never once said that any of these people are dealing with this in the wrong way.

What's worrying is that you don't seem to get the concept of withholding information for a reason, or staggering publicising of plans. You are taking everything at face value and not questioning what's NOT there.

No, you're not. You keep advocating for herd immunity, which as I've said, no health expert is advocating. I've asked you for links to back up your point of view and you're unable to provide them.

So the best you can do is pretend that it's the government's secret plan that they're not sharing with the public for no particular reason and that no one but the very clever people like you have figured out?

lainey_d_123

KiKi III wrote: »

No, you're not. You keep advocating for herd immunity, which as I've said, no health expert is advocating. I've asked you for links to back up your point of view and you're unable to provide them.

So the best you can do is pretend that it's the government's secret plan that they're not sharing with the public for no particular reason and that no one but the very clever people like you have figured out?

Sigh.

I'm not advocating for herd immunity NOW. I'm saying that once restrictions are relaxed, it's going to be one of the main things relied on to stop the number of cases exploding out of control again. Otherwise the lockdown will be in force until a vaccine is found, which is not feasible.

I have posted a link and you chose to ignore it. I'm sure you could find plenty yourself if you actually looked. My point is that nothing you've posted actually addresses what's going to happen after lockdown. I've asked you what YOU think will happen, and you've repeatedly dodged the question. You haven't come up with one single feasible plan of how you think it will work.

I wouldn't have said it was a 'secret' plan, no. I'd say it's common sense and that most people will assume this is how it will work. Your notion that the virus will somehow just evaporate and everything will be grand in eight weeks is what I find utterly bizarre.

I also find it weird that you think it's unbelievable that governments would try to stagger information. If they said now that the lockdown would last another three months, and after that, people have to go back to work, even though there's still a risk of getting sick, would you be feeling as peppy about the whole thing as you seem to be now?

Maybe that's why I'm struggling with it more than you are. While I'm happy to do what I can to protect as many people as possible, I know this is NOT 'a few weeks of sacrifice and then it's all over'. It's far more complex than that.