Relaxation of restrictions

Plumbthedepths

growleaves wrote: »

I've been saying that from day one.

The worldwide system of food production and distribution does not exist in a vaccum. It takes high levels of efficiency and inter-connected complexity to feed 7.8 billion people. You can't "cancel" large sections of the global economy excepting food supply chains - it doesn't work like that...

At present we are protecting the minority. That will change within a few months when hunger is a bigger threat.

tuxy

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Just on that I think anyone over 80 has a 21% chance of dying from it so 1 in 5.

Another fact I only learned last couple days is even in normal times anyone that requires invasive ventilation only has a small chance of coming out of it. The way the media spun it I thought most needing ventilation came out of it pre C19

That makes sense, anyone needing a ventilator under any circumstances is in a very critical condition and not far from death

ITman88

Gael23 wrote: »

Yes but only for a number of weeks. Asking the elderly to remain indoors for months on end is not a sustainable, or enforceable measure.

The current restrictions are not a cure or vaccine.

The elderly are vulnerable until a vaccine is found.

TheCitizen

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Just on that I think anyone over 80 has a 21% chance of dying from it so 1 in 5.

Another fact I only learned last couple days is even in normal times anyone that requires invasive ventilation only has a small chance of coming out of it. The way the media spun it I thought most needing ventilation came out of it pre C19

Why would the media or the powers that be "spin" things towards a lockdown and restrictions? Posters gone para on here

TheCitizen

ITman88 wrote: »

The current restrictions are not a cure or vaccine.

The elderly are vulnerable until a vaccine is found.

Effective treatments are being worked on with clinical trials starting this week. I know it's tough but hang in there pal:)

faceman

VinLieger wrote: »

Yeah were deffinitely gonna be out of all restrictions by next week....

But lets just check and see what the advisors are saying

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-lockdown-steps-could-remain-into-winter-says-expert-1.4221164?mode=amp

He’s a medical advisor. It’s his job to be conservative and not weigh up impact in other areas of the country.

Lockdown until the winter isn’t feasible. That’s not going to happen. If restrictions are to continue that long, and I highly doubt it, then they would have to look at other measures which could include cocooning vulnerable and at risk members of society, limited the size of gatherings, restrictions on flights (although I can’t see the latter happening given they haven’t introduced it up to now). Another alternative is intermittent lockdowns but i wonder how effective that would be in its own right.

Anyone work in the construction sector? Pretty sure they would have some inside info from the government given they have had to determine what non essential and essential projects are going ahead and they would be rota-ing staff accordingly.

My back of the envelope prediction is we will continue this lockdown in its present form until end of May and start lifting restrictions in bits and pieces. If you look at Spain they’re hitting the peak of the curve at the moment but their lockdown has been extended further. Ireland hasn’t hit the peak yet but it looks like we aren’t far off it.

I also can’t see compliance without enforcement continuing for that long. We’ll be lucky to reach April end with the level of compliance we’re seeing. That means the government might require stricter rules and enforcement. That will be a sad day for civil liberties and the well being of the nation when that happens. Not that it isn’t tough enough already

On a personal note the idea of lockdown till end of May is horrible.

ITman88

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Just on that I think anyone over 80 has a 21% chance of dying from it so 1 in 5.

Another fact I only learned last couple days is even in normal times anyone that requires invasive ventilation only has a small chance of coming out of it. The way the media spun it I thought most needing ventilation came out of it pre C19

The media are not a public service.

The greater the mass hysteria and panic they can generate the more clicks they can get.

They are really pushing death stats which need to be viewed with a pragmatic approach.
ICU number are more relevant but that information is harder to find.

Balanced articles are non existent, you really need to find 2 sources for everything.

Stheno

I imagine as long as there are restrictions that where they can businesses will be encouraged to maintain as many employees working from home as possible

TheCitizen

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

At present we are protecting the minority. That will change within a few months when hunger is a bigger threat.

Nope, at present we are attempting to flatten the curve so that our health service can cope and we don't have chaos. Some people just never will get what's happening, thankfully those in charge are listening to the experts and adhering to common sense.

BanditLuke

ITman88 wrote: »

The media are not a public service.

The greater the mass hysteria and panic they can generate the more clicks they can get.

They are really pushing death stats which need to be viewed with a pragmatic approach.
ICU number are more relevant but that information is harder to find.

Balanced articles are non existent, you really need to find 2 sources for everything.

What are you talking about? RTE is the biggest media outlet in the country. They are public service broadcasting.

TheCitizen

ITman88 wrote: »

The media are not a public service.

The greater the mass hysteria and panic they can generate the more clicks they can get.

They are really pushing death stats which need to be viewed with a pragmatic approach.
ICU number are more relevant but that information is harder to find.

Balanced articles are non existent, you really need to find 2 sources for everything.

:pac: The shark is being jumped. The media are exaggerating this for clicks we are lead to believe now:eek::pac:

Do you think the media want the bread and circuses of sport and entertainment shut down for a few extra clicks. Cop on will ya.

ITman88

TheCitizen wrote: »

Effective treatments are being worked on with clinical trials starting this week. I know it's tough but hang in there pal:)

If you can send me a link that’s a reliable source I’ll give you a virtual €5. It will be worth as much as your contribution.

I know you’re looking forward to getting a lollipop from the doctor when you get your injection, but no one has suggested that is anything less than 18 months away.
You can’t speed up clinical trials of a vaccine to a couple of weeks.

Jurgen Klopp

faceman wrote: »

Another alternative is intermittent lockdowns but i wonder how effective that would be in its own right.

I also can’t see compliance without enforcement continuing for that long. We’ll be lucky to reach April end with the level of compliance we’re seeing. That means the government might require stricter rules and enforcement. That will be a sad day for civil liberties and the well being of the nation when that happens. Not that it isn’t tough enough already

On a personal note the idea of lockdown till end of May is horrible.

The intermittent lockdowns was one I was thinking of Face, the thing I'd wonder if it wouldn't be death by a thousands cuts kind of scenario. Lots of business that would have survived current lockdown wouldnt be viable if we keep stopping and starting. I doubt many employers would hold on to or bother hiring new staff either if they knew they'd be open for a few weeks and shut again for 2

As for the enforcement of compliance I did a quick number crunch other night and if you gather all Gardai, plus army, navy and Air Corps plus their respective Reserves it comes to circa 26,000 personal for 26 counties. Not sure that would be effective in any real way. It's not even 1,000 per county but then you have to take extra personal for Dublin, Cork and the smaller cities so it seems like outside the cities people would be free to flout all they want

TheCitizen

BanditLuke wrote: »

What are you talking about? RTE is the biggest media outlet in the country. They are public service broadcasting.

ITman reckons RTE and the rest of the media are willing to forego the Olympics, Euro 2020, Celebrity Bainisteoir and Star in their Eyes or whatever it's called etc. for a bit of clickbait on their website :pac:

Plumbthedepths

TheCitizen wrote: »

Nope, at present we are attempting to flatten the curve so that our health service can cope and we don't have chaos. Some people just never will get what's happening, thankfully those in charge are listening to the experts and adhering to common sense.

Flattening the curve gives the HSE a chance to treat people without being overwhelmed. It does not prevent cure or eradicate the virus.
Again all we are doing is protecting the minority and at the moment that makes sense although for how long?

Plumbthedepths

TheCitizen wrote: »

Nope, at present we are attempting to flatten the curve so that our health service can cope and we don't have chaos. Some people just never will get what's happening, thankfully those in charge are listening to the experts and adhering to common sense.

Flattening the curve gives the HSE a chance to treat people without being overwhelmed. It does not prevent cure or eradicate the virus.
Again all we are doing is protecting the minority and at the moment that makes sense although for how long?

DeVore

CAN WE PLEASE STICK TO FACTS SOURCED FROM RELIABLE SOURCES

For example, if you want the mortality rates broken down by Age (and also by underlying condition) you can find info from the ECDC here:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#what-do-we-know-about-the-risk-of-dying-from-covid-19

Jurgen Klopp

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

At present we are protecting the minority. That will change within a few months when hunger is a bigger threat.

How in teh name of God did this get a yellow card? It's not wishing any harm etc just stating if the food security became a big issue they'd have to be hard decisions made

ITman88

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

As for the enforcement of compliance I did a quick number crunch other night and if you gather all Gardai, plus army, navy and Air Corps plus their respective Reserves it comes to circa 26,000 personal for 26 counties. Not sure that would be effective in any real way. It's not even 1,000 per county but then you have to take extra personal for Dublin, Cork and the smaller cities so it seems like outside the cities people would be free to flout all they want

Yeah we don’t have the number for an enforcement outside the bigger cities.

What’s happening in rural parts of Italy or Spain?

We see the videos online of armed checkpoints in Italy and Spain etc but that surely is only parts of big cities.

Stheno

ITman88 wrote: »

If you can send me a link that’s a reliable source I’ll give you a virtual €5. It will be worth as much as your contribution.

I know you’re looking forward to getting a lollipop from the doctor when you get your injection, but no one has suggested that is anything less than 18 months away.
You can’t speed up clinical trials of a vaccine to a couple of weeks.

Could you please learn the difference between tials for treatments and vaccines? There are significant differences

facehugger99

faceman wrote: »

He’s a medical advisor. It’s his job to be conservative and not weigh up impact in other areas of the country.

I've been saying it for weeks - you can't just ask medical and scientific experts what the response should be - they are only looking at part of the problem and Covid-19 is a lot bigger than that.

The Government need to take a larger view and stop pandering to the lockdown-merchants. We need a functioning economy at the end of this.

TheCitizen

ITman88 wrote: »

If you can send me a link that’s a reliable source I’ll give you a virtual €5. It will be worth as much as your contribution.

I know you’re looking forward to getting a lollipop from the doctor when you get your injection, but no one has suggested that is anything less than 18 months away.
You can’t speed up clinical trials of a vaccine to a couple of weeks.

Oh sure, cos your contribution of constant negative snowflaking on here is worth so much more.

Here you go;

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/global-research-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov/solidarity-clinical-trial-for-covid-19-treatments

The clinical trials which several countries have signed up to since last week are expected to reduce the normal waiting time for treatments by 80%. In other words it will be months not years before we see effective treatments available.

Gael23

Given the situation surely there must be a way to expedite trials?

Plumbthedepths

I received a warning accused of scare mongering about the supply of food. It was mentioned on Euro news last night. Here is an Irish reference to the same problem.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/european-states-urged-to-open-borders-to-workers-to-ensure-food-supply-1.4217227

Jurgen Klopp

TheCitizen wrote: »

Oh sure, cos your contribution of constant negative snowflaking on here is worth so much more.

Here you go;

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/global-research-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov/solidarity-clinical-trial-for-covid-19-treatments

The clinical trials which several countries have signed up to since last week are expected to reduce the normal waiting time for treatments by 80%. In other words it will be months not years before we see effective treatments available.

The trial is testing 4 different combos of approved medications used to treat other conditions.

I have been following the hydroxchloroquine and Cubas Alpha which show promise but it's a bit of a stretch to claim it will be months we see effective treatments available.

The unfortunate thing is they could all prove to have little to no effect in treating C19

Fingers crossed tho.

Nermal

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

The intermittent lockdowns was one I was thinking of Face, the thing I'd wonder if it wouldn't be death by a thousands cuts kind of scenario. Lots of business that would have survived current lockdown wouldnt be viable if we keep stopping and starting. I doubt many employers would hold on to or bother hiring new staff either if they knew they'd be open for a few weeks and shut again for 2

Interesting point. Recurring shutdowns were envisaged in multiple Imperial papers. Depending on model parameters, shutdowns were in place up to two-thirds of the time. A public-facing business could never operate effectively in such an environment.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Jesus. Just got a call from my sister saying “Hey, I’m on the way over to yours with those things you needed!”. I asked her to post me a button battery yesterday if she had one as the one in my kitchen scales is gone and I use it a lot. I also said that I wanted to get baking powder when I had the chance. But these are totally non-essential items and I’m an immunocompromised person in the Irish covid hotspot. They can wait. What the fuck was she thinking? I had to quite bluntly dissuade her. I mean, my friend had to meet her new niece through a window recently and that’s far more important. Also, I’m just not in the mind frame for receiving visitors currently like many of us.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Cases down today. Yesterday may have been our peak. Let's hope so.

Harry Palmr

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

At present we are protecting the minority. That will change within a few months when hunger is a bigger threat.

Mod/s please explain why this statement of the bleedin' obvious got carded.

Jurgen Klopp

DeVore wrote: »

CAN WE PLEASE STICK TO FACTS SOURCED FROM RELIABLE SOURCES

For example, if you want the mortality rates broken down by Age (and also by underlying condition) you can find info from the ECDC here:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#what-do-we-know-about-the-risk-of-dying-from-covid-19

Actually devore you might be able to answer this as I think you said you do stats

In South Korea it says

50-59 is 0.5%
60-69 is 1.8%

How do you work it for someone bang on 60? Would adding both and dividing by 2 work there be any way right?