Relaxation of restrictions

normanoffside

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Well by plateau, I mean the current total in ICU. So if there is currently for example 150 in ICU, it needs to stay at that number and then go down to a total of less than 100 in ICU. This then would enable them to lift restrictions for a month, before ICU numbers start to go back up again. And so on.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-s-infection-peak-may-have-passed-toll-could-hit-400-by-august-report-forecasts-1.4223043


Peak resource use of hospital and ICU beds passed on April 4th

rusty the athlete

polesheep wrote: »

I wasn't suggesting that we stay on lockdown. In fact, I believe that at this point, we should be moving to a targeted lockdown. i.e. cocooning.

Part of your target should be moving away from cocooning. Its widely disregarded and reviled by those who 'should' incarcerated, ie the over 70s, the majority of whom refuse to be placed under house arrest and quite rightly. Any law or regulation that is universally reviled and ignored is by definition bad law.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Ghost Dog 4 wrote: »

Based on latest reports we have passed the peak I would hope restrictions case be eased from May 1 and get fully back to normal by June 30th

Great news.

Gael23

The longer this goes on the more irreparable damage will be done to the economy. Businesses can’t exiat for months on end with zero cash flow whatever state support is provided.
Society can’t take it either, there is only so many weeks that you can stare at the same 4 walls of your house.

tobefrank321

housemouse wrote: »

The lockdown policy is driven by fear and panic.

Medical experts are not economists. They are tasked with fixing one problem: the spread of disease. They don't know how (because it's not their job, and it's difficult) to do a proper cost-benefit analysis.

The policy of lockdown means the death of our economies. A temporary death, yes. But with long-term consequences that reduce the wealth, happiness and life expectancy of everybody.

A cost-benefit analysis would try to understand what were the full costs of the policy, and see if there are alternatives that are better value, i.e. the opportunity cost.

For example, the Central Bank has predicted that the cost to the Irish government of the current lockdown policy will be €22 billion. I'm going to ignore the absolutely huge cost to everybody else and focus only on this €22 billion cost to government.

The supply of ICU care isn't cheap and the supply of nurses and doctors is not very elastic.

But for the cost of ten overpriced children's hospitals, don't tell me there was no alternative.

The lockdown is already going to cost an entire annual healthcare budget in lost taxes and income supports. More, if it is extended.

Investing any amount up to €22 billion in ICU care and other measures to deal with the virus would be cheaper to the Irish government than the policy of lockdown, and would be far better for all private citizens and private business. GDP is expected to fall by 8% this year, thanks to lockdown - this has real-life consequences.

A proper cost-benefit analysis would also include the remaining life expectancy of those who are vulnerable to Covid-19, after taking into account their other underlying health conditions. The media doesn't bother distinguishing between those dying with the virus, versus those who die of the virus.

Health budgets should be focused on extending survival for those who can have a high quality of life (see the recent article by Dr. Malcolm Kendrick on his website for more).

The total number of deaths in Western countries has not increased by any noticeable amount as a result of this virus.

And the life expectancy of the typical victim might well be less than 2 years, given their age and existing conditions - so the virus is likely to make almost no difference to the total number of deaths over the next year or two.

If you think it makes sense to spend €22 billion on this project, then you haven't considered the alternatives.

There is absolutely no way this is only going to cost €22 billion. Its likely to cost at least €40 billion for this year alone from lost tax revenue, and increased social welfare and health spending. The cost will gradually decrease but it could be €30 billion next year, 20 the following year. We'll be lucky not to add €100 billion to our national debt from this. And we haven't been exactly paying it off recently. Even with a relatively good economy it continued to rise.

I agree though, the figures should be put out there for everyone to decide the best way forward.

threeball

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There is absolutely no way this is only going to cost €22 billion. Its likely to cost at least €40 billion for this year alone from lost tax revenue, and increased social welfare and health spending. The cost will gradually decrease but it could be €30 billion next year, 20 the following year. We'll be lucky not to add €100 billion to our national debt from this. And we haven't been exactly paying it off recently. Even in a relatively good economy it continued to rise.

I agree though, the figures should be put out there for everyone to decide the best way forward.

All countries are in the same boat. There will be debt write down or massive injections. Italy won't survive without this.

tobefrank321

normanoffside wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-s-infection-peak-may-have-passed-toll-could-hit-400-by-august-report-forecasts-1.4223043


Peak resource use of hospital and ICU beds passed on April 4th

Good to know. When we get below 100 covid19 patients in ICU we could then look at lifting some restrictions for a month or two, knowing full well though that ICU admissions will slowly creep up again.

rusty the athlete

rusty the athlete wrote: »

Part of your target should be moving away from cocooning. Its widely disregarded and reviled by those who 'should' incarcerated, ie the over 70s, the majority of whom refuse to be placed under house arrest and quite rightly. Any law or regulation that is universally reviled and ignored is by definition bad law.

Frontline worker here.
Funny you speaking for all over 70s there, the majority I speak with, every day, seem to be very happy with the way it is right now. They know it's not forever & they are very resilient.
A lot more than the snowflakes I see posting on here

fleet_admiral

Ghost Dog 4 wrote: »

Based on latest reports we have passed the peak I would hope restrictions case be eased from May 1 and get fully back to normal by June 30th

LVA said in the last few days optimistically if cases flatten pubs should take their own decision and open at the start of July, worst case scenario being Halloween

polesheep

Larbre34 wrote: »

I mentioned this yesterday and I'll say it again.

A medic friend of mine works in a Dublin tertiary hospital that has been prepped to provide intensive care to the expected surge of cases.

He told me on Sunday that the internal discussion in this hospital is for these restrictions to continue exactly as they are for 5/6 more weeks, with a gradual, closely monitored unwinding thereafter.

Get used to it.

My wife is working in ICU. She tells me that the internal discussions on restrictions vary from day to day, but when they want to KNOW what's ACTUALLY happening... they listen to Dr. Holohan's statements.

polesheep

rusty the athlete wrote: »

Part of your target should be moving away from cocooning. Its widely disregarded and reviled by those who 'should' incarcerated, ie the over 70s, the majority of whom refuse to be placed under house arrest and quite rightly. Any law or regulation that is universally reviled and ignored is by definition bad law.

Yes, I should have said that cocooning should be an advisory only.

Gael23

fleet_admiral wrote: »

LVA said in the last few days optimistically if cases flatten pubs should take their own decision and open at the start of July, worst case scenario being Halloween

There. wont be any pubs in existance by Halloween if it goes on that long

lbj666

rusty the athlete wrote: »

Part of your target should be moving away from cocooning. Its widely disregarded and reviled by those who 'should' incarcerated, ie the over 70s, the majority of whom refuse to be placed under house arrest and quite rightly. Any law or regulation that is universally reviled and ignored is by definition bad law.

A lot of the over 70s seem to think the cocooning thing is just "for their own good", it not, its so that health service isnt overwhelmed by this demongraphic getting sick all at once.

it doesnt matter in the slightest to the HSE if someone is willing to take the risks and willing to meet their maker, they still would be rocking up to hospital and have to be dealt with.

They need to be reminded of the 100s of thousand of "non vulnerable" if there is such a thing stuck indoors mostly for their sake not their own.

rusty the athlete

rusty the athlete wrote: »

Part of your target should be moving away from cocooning. Its widely disregarded and reviled by those who 'should' incarcerated, ie the over 70s, the majority of whom refuse to be placed under house arrest and quite rightly. Any law or regulation that is universally reviled and ignored is by definition bad law.

I was out for a walk this morning. Its almost like business as usual now. I actually think I saw more people who were definitely over 70 (gait, stiffness, walking sticks) out and about than the rest of the population. A huge increase in cars out too, in fact it was hard to cross the road whereas last week it was absolutely dead! Most people have themselves relaxed restrictions, you can see it everywhere.

Lwaker.

fleet_admiral wrote: »

LVA said in the last few days optimistically if cases flatten pubs should take their own decision and open at the start of July, worst case scenario being Halloween

LVA got their own experts modelling the curve lol

KevRossi

KevRossi wrote: »

This is purely anecdotal, but I go for a walk every morning from 6.30-8.30 in a big rectangle around the house. My route crosses many busy commuter routes such as Dorset St, Finglas Rd. East Wall Rd, Clontarf Rd.

The number of cars on the road this week has shot up compared to last week. I usually take a small digital camera with me, took loads of photos of deserted streets last week and today it looks like a Saturday morning. A lot of people are sick of the lockdown and are on the move again, which isn't good.

couldnt agree more! I was working the last few days but I'm off today. Huge increase in people out walking especially much older people, huge increase in traffic. No comparison to last week.

Padre_Pio

bubblypop wrote: »

Frontline worker here.
Funny you speaking for all over 70s there, the majority I speak with, every day, seem to be very happy with the way it is right now. They know it's not forever & they are very resilient.
A lot more than the snowflakes I see posting on here

I have to agree.

Everyone I know is fine with the way things are. It's not idea, but some posters would have you believe people are committing seppuku for the want of a pint or football.

This is only temporary. No one knows exactly how temporary, but considering mortgages and many bills have paused, and people have little to spend their money on, it's not as bad as the 2008 recession.

Deleted User wrote: »

couldnt agree more! I was working the last few days but I'm off today. Huge increase in people out walking especially much older people, huge increase in traffic. No comparison to last week.

People are probably back in work. Social distancing policies have been implemented and are working. They've taken 3/4 of the chairs out of our canteen and scheduled breaks so places are not overcrowded. People are asked to work from home, but it's fine if they come in and maintain distance.

AdamD

Dodge wrote: »

What will be destroyed? Everything is just on pause. That’s all. Some jobs will be lost. Some more will be created. The same raw materials will still exist and the same corporations will still provide everything we want and need.

It can obviously be discussed over and over again here but surely everybody realises deep down that most people would want to get back normality ASAP, and that when restrictions are removed that will happen naturally enough?

Talk of society being destroyed is ridiculous

A lot more jobs will be lost than created, you can't equate the two like that.

Idbatterim

many are actually better off now, not working and on the E350 with no commute costs etc...

donaghs

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I have to agree.

Everyone I know is fine with the way things are. It's not idea, but some posters would have you believe people are committing seppuku for the want of a pint or football.

This is only temporary. No one knows exactly how temporary, but considering mortgages and many bills have paused, and people have little to spend their money on, it's not as bad as the 2008 recession.

The 2008 recession didn't actually affect many people in 2008. But it did go on for quite a few years after. The unprecedented global economic shutdown could surely be worse?

donaghs

Idbatterim wrote: »

many are actually better off now, not working and on the E350 with no commute costs etc...

When did the gubberment realise they had an endless supply of free money? Could it ever end?

Lwaker.

donaghs wrote: »

When did the gubberment realise they had an endless supply of free money? Could it ever end?

Economy taking a back seat

No politician wants to get caught out with the curve like Italy

Idbatterim

donaghs wrote: »

When did the gubberment realise they had an endless supply of free money? Could it ever end?

your point is very valied, I mean constantly we are told here, there is no money for this, no money for that, even for important areas. All of a sudden , the same as the bank bailouts, they can produces tens of billions, when they couldnt have produced a billion cents before :rolleyes:

It seems there is either no money or endless money!

fleet_admiral

Gael23 wrote: »

There. wont be any pubs in existance by Halloween if it goes on that long

Agree, I'm hoping to be back at the end of June

Sweet.Science

Dont know whats funnier

People who think restrictions will be lifted on Thursday or those that think they will last until September

Plumbthedepths

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I have to agree.

Everyone I know is fine with the way things are. It's not idea, but some posters would have you believe people are committing seppuku for the want of a pint or football.

This is only temporary. No one knows exactly how temporary, but considering mortgages and many bills have paused, and people have little to spend their money on, it's not as bad as the 2008 recession.



People are probably back in work. Social distancing policies have been implemented and are working. They've taken 3/4 of the chairs out of our canteen and scheduled breaks so places are not overcrowded. People are asked to work from home, but it's fine if they come in and maintain distance.

Mortgages and bills have paused? When did this happen?. I got an electricity bill yesterday, my phone bill is due next week. My mortgage payment was taken out on the first of this month.

fleet_admiral

Lwaker. wrote: »

LVA got their own experts modelling the curve lol

Going on HSE advice

IAMAMORON

Idbatterim wrote: »

many are actually better off now, not working and on the E350 with no commute costs etc...

Do you think so?

Assetbacked

donaghs wrote: »

When did the gubberment realise they had an endless supply of free money? Could it ever end?

There was enough money pumped into the banks after 2008 to get them operational again. This time the money will be pumped into the citizens to keep them functioning. Same thing, more humane.

Idbatterim

fleet_admiral wrote: »

Agree, I'm hoping to be back at the end of June

brining up pubs, honestly that is likely the main one people would love to open again. Can they not just use youngish people behind the bar and in all of the roles, to stop risk of staff most likely being in a bad way, if they get it...