Relaxation of restrictions

lainey_d_123

robinph wrote: »

And what about how many people are crammed into a train carriage at once, how many people are allowed into a shop at once, if the cinema is reopened how many seats do they fill, are bars back open again?

There is a difference between the lifting of a lockdown and things being back to normal, or what we were doing 4 months ago.

Sure, but presumably this will all be staggered, as it should be. There are people on here who think we should be on strict lockdown for as long as it takes, which isn't feasible.

What worries me is that a lot of the restrictions here in London are making the problem worse. The tube service has been cut, which means more people packed into each train, which is more dangerous. The parks have been closed because of groups of people gathering in them (apparently - from what I saw this was a huge minority of people) and this has forced joggers and everyone else onto narrow pavements, which is more dangerous. Shorter opening hours for pharmacies mean that you have to go at 10am, when the street are getting busy, so again, more dangerous.

I feel like things would be safer if things like public transport went back to normal, so those who do need to use it (key workers) can travel more safely, and for everyone else who can work from home to be encouraged to do so, and shops opened normal hours again, so people wanting to avoid peak times could do so.

tobefrank321

salmocab wrote: »

Surely you can’t say using confirmed cases is too unreliable and also think that using how many people rang a hotline would be better at telling us where we’re at?

In terms of real time information, it probably is yes. Those who report symptoms probably got infected within the last 5 days.

Those who will be tested and got results back, were likely infected 2 weeks ago. 2 weeks ago is useless in telling us what is happening at the moment.

Loafing Oaf

salmocab wrote: »

Surely you can’t say using confirmed cases is too unreliable and also think that using how many people rang a hotline would be better at telling us where we’re at?

I'd say as the weather warms up and other 'bugs' phase out, it'll become highly likely that anyone experiencing relevant symptoms, even those tending to hypochondria, actually has covid-19...

salmocab

tobefrank321 wrote: »

In terms of real time information, it probably is yes. Those who report symptoms probably got infected within the last 5 days.

Those who will be tested and got results back, were likely infected 2 weeks ago. 2 weeks ago is useless in telling us what is happening at the moment.

But your then basically taking numbers based on people making phone calls that’s a ludicrous way to get numbers.

terrydel

1800 deaths in last 24 in the US, average deaths per day in 2017 approx 7700.
I wonder if mr 16 likes still thinks our decisions were 'panicked and poor'?

never_mind

Are we expecting further restrictions and an announcement on Friday or a continuing of current scenario for 2 weeks? Being relaxed isn't an option, obviously.

ThewhiteJesus

never_mind wrote: »

Are we expecting further restrictions and an announcement on Friday or a continuing of current scenario for 2 weeks? Being relaxed isn't an option, obviously.

sounds like more restrictions now the smurfs have powers to detain/fine ect.

martingriff

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Sure, but presumably this will all be staggered, as it should be. There are people on here who think we should be on strict lockdown for as long as it takes, which isn't feasible.

What worries me is that a lot of the restrictions here in London are making the problem worse. The tube service has been cut, which means more people packed into each train, which is more dangerous. The parks have been closed because of groups of people gathering in them (apparently - from what I saw this was a huge minority of people) and this has forced joggers and everyone else onto narrow pavements, which is more dangerous. Shorter opening hours for pharmacies mean that you have to go at 10am, when the street are getting busy, so again, more dangerous.

I feel like things would be safer if things like public transport went back to normal, so those who do need to use it (key workers) can travel more safely, and for everyone else who can work from home to be encouraged to do so, and shops opened normal hours again, so people wanting to avoid peak times could do so.

This is the one thing that confused me with trains and buses been reduced. Surely more on would limit the amount per ride

housemouse

terrydel wrote: »

1800 deaths in last 24 in the US, average deaths per day in 2017 approx 7700.
I wonder if mr 16 likes still thinks our decisions were 'panicked and poor'?

Terry, you are not worth my time. I enjoy following this thread, though, so please feel free to continue provoking me. I will continue to remind you that you aren't worth my time, and everyone will be bored by it.

For everyone who isn't emotionally threatened by facts and logic, here is an article you may have missed by a retired Professor of Pathology. He explains some of the key issues surrounding the data:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

terrydel

never_mind wrote: »

Are we expecting further restrictions and an announcement on Friday or a continuing of current scenario for 2 weeks? Being relaxed isn't an option, obviously.

I'd expect the same restrictions, but we've already had the increase with the newly enacted garda powers.

martingriff

ThewhiteJesus wrote: »

sounds like more restrictions now the smurfs have powers to detain/fine ect.

Why don't you tell us how you really feel. They tried the carrot people abused it so now the stick has to be used

terrydel

martingriff wrote: »

This is the one thing that confused me with trains and buses been reduced. Surely more on would limit the amount per ride

People arent go out so they are not needed, if they are out its another member of staff in the firing line, another vehicle that needs sanitising etc.

Ace2007

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

What did they do in Wuhan? They're pretty much fully open now, with a few exceptions, trains operating, flights leaving, restaurants back up and running. It's only been about 3 months for them from beginning to end. Why do people think our lockdown is going to be months and months?

Are you really asking that question? It Wuhan no one left their house unless they had to/given permission - some were chained into the houses - that's why they got over it so quickly

ThewhiteJesus

Ace2007 wrote: »

Are you really asking that question? It Wuhan no one left their house unless they had to/given permission - some were chained into the houses - that's why they got over it so quickly

hopefully they stopped eating bats aswell

housemouse

Here is an excerpt from the article by Dr John Lee, in case any of you are blocked by the paywall:

"But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

Now look at what has happened since the emergence of Covid-19. The list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox (which has been extinct for many years) and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies (which most UK doctors will never see in their entire careers) — has now been amended to include Covid-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for Covid-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections.

In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate — contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind. There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.

If we take drastic measures to reduce the incidence of Covid-19, it follows that the deaths will also go down. We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared. This unusual way of reporting Covid-19 deaths explains the clear finding that most of its victims have underlying conditions — and would normally be susceptible to other seasonal viruses, which are virtually never recorded as a specific cause of death."

Poorside

never_mind wrote: »

Are we expecting further restrictions and an announcement on Friday or a continuing of current scenario for 2 weeks? Being relaxed isn't an option, obviously.

If the weather is going to be good for the weekend they'll need to lock it down even more.

tobefrank321

salmocab wrote: »

But your then basically taking numbers based on people making phone calls that’s a ludicrous way to get numbers.

Far less ludicrous than the current system of posting new cases even though most were infected 2 weeks ago and in the German cases possibly 3-4 weeks ago.

I hope the government are not deciding on restrictions based on newly confirmed cases as they are hopelessly out of date.

We need to see more up to date trends. ICU admissions and deaths only tells us again who was infected two weeks ago.

How to determine more up to date trends is the key to lifting or imposing restrictions. And so far we don't really have any reliable way of doing that. So literally the only one we have is how many people are today reporting symptoms of covid 19. Not a runny nose, a sneeze or a minor cough - but suspected cases as determined by a GP.

If last week over a 7 day period, 5000 people rang up (presented) with strong symptoms of covid 19 and this week it was only 2000, then we definitely know we are heading in the right direction. Not perfect, but literally the only way at the moment we can determine which way we are going.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

If and when there is another wave of the virus then they will go right back to full lockdown again as will any other area of China.

This depends on the rate of new cases and measures taken to combat said wave.

If the rate of cases isn't as high and there are more ICU units available, full lockdown won't be automatic.

Logan Roy

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

This depends on the rate of new cases and measures taken to combat said wave.

If the rate of cases isn't as high and there are more ICU units available, full lockdown won't be automatic.

Shhh, you're ruining his fantasy.

lainey_d_123

Ace2007 wrote: »

Are you really asking that question? It Wuhan no one left their house unless they had to/given permission - some were chained into the houses - that's why they got over it so quickly

What we're doing here really isn't that much less, in terms of the virus spreading.

Ireland has the advantage over cities like Wuhan of low population density as well. It's far, far easier for most people in Ireland to completely avoid contact with others than it is for people in urban China. Even getting into a lift in your own apartment block to go downstairs and accept a food delivery is far more risk than most people in Ireland currently have to tolerate.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Witcher wrote: »

Probably because you've been in your house as you should.

Lads having a BBQ like it's a holiday ffs:pac:

When I saw your discription, I was expecting at least 8-10 people in a park, not two people possibly who live toegether totally respecting social distancing rules.

It's not going outside that spreads the virus, it's being in onctact with different people.

terrydel wrote: »

1800 deaths in last 24 in the US, average deaths per day in 2017 approx 7700.
I wonder if mr 16 likes still thinks our decisions were 'panicked and poor'?

This isn't the US.

Also, deaths aren't really an indicator of the virus' progression.

Cork Boy 53

Blueshoe wrote: »

I'm working tomorrow. Essential services list. I will be traveling from Dublin city to west Sligo and back. How many checkpoints will I meet? I doubt il meet any at all

I think there is a high chance that you will. Anyway let us know one way or the other.

BanditLuke

Cyrus wrote: »

the restrictions will start to be lifted, if not on Sunday, then the following weekend,

itll be a gradual thing and we may end up taking one step forward and two back at points but rest assured thats what will happen,

as others have said dozens of people die every day, by not giving us any information of how many extra deaths over the norm we are seeing people are being panicked, thats the tactic to be fair.

the new powers are only in force until sunday night.

the reality is that many that have died would probably have died this year one way or another, and that is in no way to detract from the sadness that will be felt by their families and the cruelty of not being able to be there with them or have a proper funeral if they wish.

I'll be amazed if the restrictions are lifted Sunday week. I can't for the life of me see how anyone would think that or argue for it.

Cork Boy 53

ThewhiteJesus wrote: »

sounds like more restrictions now the smurfs have powers to detain/fine ect.

The smurfs have been granted extra powers due to muppets not obeying the restrictions.

lainey_d_123

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

When I saw your discription, I was expecting at least 8-10 people in a park, not two people possibly who live toegether totally respecting social distancing rules.

It's not going outside that spreads the virus, it's being in onctact with different people.



This isn't the US.

Also, deaths aren't really an indicator of the virus' progression.

Two people who may well share a sh1tty room in a flatshare who are just trying to get out and enjoy a bit of fresh air and sun. The amount of shaming was unreal. I understand that the point is that if they can go and have a bbq, then everyone can, and the beach would be packed, but it's becoming really problematic that it's no longer acceptable to sit or linger anywhere in public, even on your own.

I wonder how many people who called this pair idiots have their own nice back garden with a barbecue and a nice comfy chair to sit and relax in and enjoy the sun. This crisis is really highlighting the class divide here.

Cork Boy 53

BanditLuke wrote: »

I'll be amazed if the restrictions are lifted Sunday week. I can't for the life of me see how anyone would think that or argue for it.

Because too many people still have their heads in the sand or are in denial. Of course a certain amount of them on these forums may be trolling as well.

ITman88

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Ireland has the advantage over cities like Wuhan of low population density as well. It's far, far easier for most people in Ireland to completely avoid contact with others than it is for people in urban China. Even getting into a lift in your own apartment block to go downstairs and accept a food delivery is far more risk than most people in Ireland currently have to tolerate.

The lockdown fairies are completely ignoring those facts.

Wuhan, Lombardy, Madrid and Paris ain’t anything like Ireland.

Even our most densely populated cities never built up, they built out.

We have so much working in our favour, including population density and age profile.

34 European cities have a greater population than Dublin.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

BanditLuke wrote: »

I'll be amazed if the restrictions are lifted Sunday week. I can't for the life of me see how anyone would think that or argue for it.

Noone is arguing - or should be arguing - lifting. Easing of restrictions.

lainey_d_123

ITman88 wrote: »

The lockdown fairies are completely ignoring those facts.

Wuhan, Lombardy, Madrid and Paris ain’t anything like Ireland.

Even our most densely populated cities never built up, they built out.

We have so much working in our favour, including population density and age profile.

34 European cities have a greater population than Dublin.

Massive advantages. I would so much rather be in Ireland than most other places in Europe right now.

Most of my friends in Ireland haven't even changed their habits that much, especially those in rural areas. They would have easily gone a whole week without leaving the house/land even when there was nothing stopping them. Maybe that's why so many on here seem to be finding this so easy. People in built up cities live their lives outside.

Cork Boy 53

Logan Roy wrote: »

Shhh, you're ruining his fantasy.

Brilliant contribution from you there.:rolleyes: Well done.