Relaxation of restrictions

housemouse

Tell me how wrote: »

Are you suggesting that the professor believes that China has achieved herd immunity?

With a population of 1.38B people?
With 80% having been infected?
At 1.5% mortality rate, that would be over 16M deaths.

If this has not happened, where do you think is the discrepancy in the professors viewpoint?

1.5% mortality is not a thing. Icelandic data suggests that 50% of infected people are asymptomatic, i.e. they don't even know they have it. The true numbers of infected people are vastly higher than the official data.

Tell me how

housemouse wrote: »

1.5% mortality is not a thing. Icelandic data suggests that 50% of infected people are asymptomatic, i.e. they don't even know they have it. The true numbers of infected people are vastly higher than the official data.

Any link to this icelandic data?

housemouse

terrydel wrote: »

I'd buy and sell you pal, thats a fact even you can rely on.

Almost missed this insult.

As a reward, I will remind everyone reading this thread that in Iceland, 50% of those infected are asymptomatic:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

The official mortality rate is less than 0.4%:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iceland

They have done a better job at testing than other countries (due to their small size). If everybody was tested, we would know the true mortality rate. Maybe 0.1% or 0.2%.

Stheno

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Here you go

housemouse

Tell me how wrote: »

Any link to this icelandic data?

Read all about it:

https://www.businessinsider.com/iceland-coronavirus-pandemic-approach-could-help-other-countries-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

Plumbthedepths

housemouse wrote: »

Almost missed this insult.

As a reward, I will remind everyone reading this thread that in Iceland, 50% of those infected are asymptomatic:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

The official mortality rate is less than 0.4%:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iceland

They have done a better job at testing than other countries (due to their small size). If everybody was tested, we would know the true mortality rate. Maybe 0.1% of 0.2%.

Anonymous internet keyboard warrior announces he can buy and sell you, and to emphasise he says that's FACT. lol

You are being stalked by an idiot.

terrydel

housemouse wrote: »

Oh no! I'll be devastated if you don't speak to me any more

Since you're back, enjoy this reminder that herd immunity is already happening or has already happened in the UK (and no thanks to lockdown):

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-half-uk-population-oxford-university-study-finds-a4396721.html

936 dead there today. Hows that herd immunity working out for you?

Plumbthedepths

housemouse wrote: »

Read all about it:

https://www.businessinsider.com/iceland-coronavirus-pandemic-approach-could-help-other-countries-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

The lack of testing here is the biggest problem and the refusal to acknowledge people have recovered. We still have the first positive for the virus from February still being counted in today's figures which makes a nonsense of our stats.

terrydel

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Anonymous internet keyboard warrior announces he can buy and sell you, and to emphasise he says that's FACT. lol

You are being stalked by an idiot.

Anonymous?! At least I post under my actual name, whereas you post under an accurate description of your level of intelligence.

Plumbthedepths

terrydel wrote: »

Anonymous?! At least I post under my actual name, whereas you post under an accurate description of your level of intelligence.

Ah yes 'terrydel' sounds like a real name, seriously lad do you believe your behaviour makes your commentary more valid than any other comment here. I make no pretence that my username is made up, making a personal attack on another anonymous poster does you no favour.

terrydel

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Anonymous internet keyboard warrior announces he can buy and sell you, and to emphasise he says that's FACT. lol

You are being stalked by an idiot.

Whats your name? Oh I forgot, Im the one posting under my real name, not you.
Calling people idiots now, another one resorting abuse, the definition of a keyboard warrior.

Plumbthedepths

terrydel wrote: »

Anonymous?! At least I post under my actual name, whereas you post under an accurate description of your level of intelligence.

Ah yes 'terrydel' sounds like a real name, seriously lad do you believe your behaviour makes your commentary more valid than any other comment here. I make no pretence that my username is made up, making a personal attack on another anonymous poster does you no favour. Also I suggest you refrain from threats on PM.

Tell me how

housemouse wrote: »

Read all about it:

https://www.businessinsider.com/iceland-coronavirus-pandemic-approach-could-help-other-countries-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

So, leaving aside the comparatively small levels of testing (circa 20K)
by their reckoning, 50% of people with it are asymptomatic, that would imply only 8M or so would have died in China, or, if you use the mortality rate which Iceland has 0.38%, China's death toll would have been in the region of 4M.

Do you think this happened?

terrydel

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Ah yes 'terrydel' sounds like a real name, seriously lad do you believe your behaviour makes your commentary more valid than any other comment here. I make no pretence that my username is made up, making a personal attack on another anonymous poster does you no favour.

But Im not anonymous, you have my name, you are hiding behind anonymity, not me.
So projecting your own defects onto someone else.
Youve made personal attacks on me. Calling me an idiot.
You are an irony free zone.

maninasia

Sincere Whispering Seaside wrote: »

If mortality is at most 0.02% then that would mean everyone in Italy has already been infected. They already have 0.028% of their total population dead. Your figures seem completely unlikely.

The mortality rate from countries such as Germany, Israel and Korea that are doing a lot of testing looks to be 0.3% to 1.5%. When it gets out of hand it can get to 5%.

terrydel

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Ah yes 'terrydel' sounds like a real name, seriously lad do you believe your behaviour makes your commentary more valid than any other comment here. I make no pretence that my username is made up, making a personal attack on another anonymous poster does you no favour. Also I suggest you refrain from threats on PM.

Once was enough, you must be frothing at the mouth now banging the keyboard and duplicating your chaotic utterances.

Tokyo

terrydel wrote: »

Whats your name? Oh I forgot, Im the one posting under my real name, not you.
Calling people idiots now, another one resorting abuse, the definition of a keyboard warrior.

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Ah yes 'terrydel' sounds like a real name, seriously lad do you believe your behaviour makes your commentary more valid than any other comment here. I make no pretence that my username is made up, making a personal attack on another anonymous poster does you no favour. Also I suggest you refrain from threats on PM.

Mod: Jesus, end it, both of you. Any further squabbling and I'll threadban both of you.

housemouse

Tell me how wrote: »

So, leaving aside the comparatively small levels of testing (circa 20K)
by their reckoning, 50% of people with it are asymptomatic, that would imply only 8M or so would have died in China, or, if you use the mortality rate which Iceland has 0.38%, China's death toll would have been in the region of 4M.

Do you think this happened?

The 0.38% is still an overestimate, since Iceland hasn't caught every case. If it caught half of the cases, which would be far better than every large European country, the mortality rate would be 0.2%. A mortality rate of 0.1% would also make sense, in line with similar viruses.

The virus has run its course in Wuhan and other heavily infected parts of China. I can't say if it has run its course entirely.

housemouse

terrydel wrote: »

936 dead there today. Hows that herd immunity working out for you?

a) Many of them were infected weeks ago, when the UK was building its immunity (a process that is stunted by social distancing).

b) 1,600 people die in the UK every day. What matters is excess deaths over a period of e.g. 12 months, not daily deaths with the virus.

c) (Prepare to be triggered.) Whatever the death toll of the virus, the costs of any plan to reduce that toll need to be analysed.

terrydel

housemouse wrote: »

a) Many of them were infected weeks ago, when the UK was building its immunity (a process that is stunted by social distancing).

b) 1,600 people die in the UK every day. What matters is excess deaths over a period of e.g. 12 months, not daily deaths with the virus.

c) (Prepare to be triggered.) Whatever the death toll of the virus, the costs of any plan to reduce that toll need to be analysed.

Prepare to be triggered? What does that mean? More abuse from you. Youre a real brave man behind your keyboard with your 30 odd posts of trolling.

So something comes along and the approach to it results in an increase in the daily death rate of over 50% and you think thats a good thing and the way forward?

housemouse

terrydel wrote: »

Prepare to be triggered? What does that mean? More abuse from you. Youre a real brave man behind your keyboard with your 30 odd posts of trolling.

So something comes along and the approach to it results in an increase in the daily death rate of over 50% and you think thats a good thing and the way forward?

It must be weird, trying to debate people but without making any points. Isn't there something more productive you could be doing?

CrowdedHouse

As an aside folks you might consider taking this survey (apologies if it's elsewhere)

https://twitter.com/astaines/status/1247853928261312517?s=20

terrydel

housemouse wrote: »

It must be weird, trying to debate people but without making any points. Isn't there something more productive you could be doing?

Its not a debate when the other person refuses repeatedly to answers questions, you've done it again. Its actually impressive to witness in a strange kind of way.

road_high

never_mind wrote: »

Are we expecting further restrictions and an announcement on Friday or a continuing of current scenario for 2 weeks? Being relaxed isn't an option, obviously.

I think we’ve hit rock bottom- the rules already implemented are extremely draconian. If they’re not working or being implemented there is the problem rather than more new ones

Tell me how

road_high wrote: »

I think we’ve hit rock bottom- the rules already implemented are extremely draconian. If they’re not working or being implemented there is the problem rather than more new ones

The rules are there because there is a need for them.

Just because some people (a relatively small number all told I suspect) are not following them does not mean they should be removed.

It's quite incredible to see these rules described as extremely draconian. The only way that makes sense is if you haven't actually heard of the virus or the impact it has had.

Bandana boy

housemouse wrote: »

Almost missed this insult.

As a reward, I will remind everyone reading this thread that in Iceland, 50% of those infected are asymptomatic:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

The official mortality rate is less than 0.4%:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iceland

They have done a better job at testing than other countries (due to their small size). If everybody was tested, we would know the true mortality rate. Maybe 0.1% or 0.2%.

So use 0.4%
Do you think 5.7 million people have died in China

Or 0.2% 2.85 Million people

even 0.1%
1.4 million people

Plumbthedepths

Tell me how wrote: »

It's quite incredible to see these rules described as extremely draconian. The only way that makes sense is if you haven't actually heard of the virus or the impact it has had.

I'm not looking for a row but how can you describe these rules as not Draconian when you are not subject to them?
Again I must say it you are resident in America so what is your personal experience of the rules up today other than secondhand information.

Plumbthedepths

Bandana boy wrote: »

So use 0.4%
Do you think 5.7 million people have died in China

Or 0.2% 2.85 Million people

even 0.1%
1.4 million people

Do you believe anything coming out of official Chinese channels?

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

terrydel wrote: »

936 dead there today. Hows that herd immunity working out for you?

Again: it's not the death rate that portrays the spread of the virus, it's the number of new cases. And it's the number of active cases that will portray whether a country's policies are or are not working.

Herd immunity - and I'm not saying whether or not it's a good approach - has even less to do with the death rate; unless you can tell when these people got infected.

lainey_d_123

road_high wrote: »

I think we’ve hit rock bottom- the rules already implemented are extremely draconian. If they’re not working or being implemented there is the problem rather than more new ones

Indeed. A lockdown like the one in Wuhan only works in a police state like China. The ones we have in the UK and Ireland are relying on people's goodwill because there is not the manpower to police it the way they have in China. As most people are decent and law abiding, compliance has generally been very good, but people simply cannot keep up this level of lockdown for much longer.

I can already see people getting more lax in London, streets are getting busier, people touching their faces and getting complacent. This is always the risk with a situation like this, especially when we know most of us are going to get the virus eventually anyway. The mental strain of having to wash your hands constantly, make sure not to touch your face, worry about every single thing you've touched, sanitise all your groceries is exhausting. A lot of people are just going to feel like they'd rather risk getting sick than keep up this level of precautions. I suffer from OCD and it's life ruining, and now everyone is living like they have OCD. People are playing it down on here but it's a massively stressful situation. Not only being isolated and stuck at home but all the mental strain that comes with venturing out for groceries, or accepting a delivery. There are hundreds of thousands of cases here. Every trip outside the flat is a real risk, as is every delivery. It's neverending and all consuming in a way very few things are.