Eradication

Can it be eradicated? What would it take and can we put the effort in required?

biko

Yes

A lot

Yes

touts

No

A miracle

No

We just have to cope until a combination of herd immunity and vaccines make this a constant background killer like the flu.

Cuddlesworth

Could it be, sure.

Will it, probably not.

It's in the world now. There are infections everywhere, in practically every country. And in poor undeveloped countries, they are not going to be able to keep it contained.

At this point, we either mitigate it or normalise it.

SuperRabbit

Yes

Two or three years assuming it doesn't mutate

Yes, though we could have eradicated it in months if every country had taken it seriously. It got to the rich countries, who could afford to do everything they could to eradicate it, first. And they squandered the chance. Now it's in poor countries where they have fewer resources to fight it.

Beasty

Even if "eradicated" (which seems unlikely to me, but none of us can know for sure at this stage), anything that has been "created" in the first place can be "re-created". The particular danger then is any future mutation could be even more dangerous

biko

If smallpox could be eradicated in 1979, COVID can too.
Currently, there is no evidence of naturally occurring smallpox transmission anywhere in the world.

ITman88

biko wrote: »

If smallpox could be eradicated in 1979, COVID can too.
Currently, there is no evidence of naturally occurring smallpox transmission anywhere in the world.

Why haven’t we eradicated influenza then?
It was responsible for 54k deaths in Italy in 2015?

This is here to stay, and we will adapt to it

SuperRabbit

ITman88 wrote: »

Why haven’t we eradicated influenza then?
It was responsible for 54k deaths in Italy in 2015?

This is here to stay, and we will adapt to it

1. people refuse to get the flu vaccine and they happily got the smallpox vaccine, so the flu always has loads of hosts available to live and mutate in
2. smallpox doesn't seem to mutate much and the flu does

Beasty

We have not "eradicated" measles. Vaccination has been generally effective, but we've seen an upsurge in the west because of the anti-vaxxer movement.

What we cannot determine at this stage is if it will be flu-like and mutating every year, but we need annual vaccinations for that. We only need a childhood vaccine for Measles

However Covid-19 is only one strain of Coronavirus, and as I understand it certain forms of the common cold are also Coronaviruses. I think that suggests whatever we can do with Covid-19, there could well be a Covid-20, 21, 22, 23 etc which does not conform to the characteristics of Covid-19.

At this stage it can only be speculation either way. We are only starting to work through this virus, what it can do, and how we can control it. It's a case of years rather than months to getting to a stage where (hopefully) we can feel comfortable we're on top of Covid-19, but who knows what new variants may appear in the same way this did.

The one thing that seems quite clear is that some of these newer viruses are more far-reaching than anything we've experienced - whether that's due to the viruses mutating, or the "globalisation" of everything, particularly travel, I don't know. Whichever it is, we're unlikely to be able to put this type of genie back in the bottle. It may be another decade, it may be another century, but it's clear that we can be caught out by this sort of thing

Beasty

biko wrote: »

If smallpox could be eradicated in 1979, COVID can too.
Currently, there is no evidence of naturally occurring smallpox transmission anywhere in the world.

Smallpox was around for probably 10s of thousands of years before it was "eradicated". There is no certainty that it, or a variation of it, could re-appear at some stage. As I said previously anything that was created in the first place can be re-created (and I understand this has happened with smallpox in a lab environment)

Having identifiable coronavirus antibodies in your bloodstream means you've probably built up immunity. But roughly 8% of the patients studied didn't develop any detectable antibodies at all.

"What this will mean to herd immunity will require more data from other parts of the world," Huang Jinghe, the leader of the research team behind the report, said, according to the South China Morning Post.

Interestingly, the levels of antibodies patients produced seemed to correlate with their ages: Middle-aged and elderly recovered patients had higher levels of antibodies. Nine of the 10 of the patients who did not develop detectable levels of coronavirus antibodies were 40 years old or younger.

patients in the study who did not develop detectable antibodies, "other immune responses, including T cells or cytokines, may contribute to the recovery," the researchers wrote.

T cells are a type of white blood cells that aid in immune response, and cytokines are a type of molecule that cells release to fight infections. However, when too many cytokines are released, they cause inflammation — which has reportedly contributed to fatal outcomes in some COVID-19 patients.

Even in patients who do develop coronavirus antibodies, scientists still aren't sure how long they'll last; the virus has not been around long enough to study long-term effects.


https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recovered-coronavirus-patients-antibodies-2020-4?amp=&r=AU&IR=T

A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies. In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all. “Whether these patients were at high risk of rebound or reinfection should be explored in further studies,” the team wrote in preliminary research released on Monday on Medrxiv.org, an online platform for preprint papers.
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about

Best case scenario based on the lack of antibodies.....
First line of defence immune response is beating covoid19 before antibodies are made while no permanent lung damage incurred.

Worst case scenario is you get this low level infection repeatedly incurring permanent lung damage until you get a bad dose when perhaps you are older.

Either way if you don't make antibodies you can catch it again.

Until we know more we should take the ultra cautious route and try eradication. If not the worst scenario here is a huge drop in life expectancy for us all.

ILoveYourVibes

Not in our lifetime.

But I wouldn't worry about it.

We haven't eradicated polio but you have been immunized against it.

PaybackPayroll

Beasty wrote: »

However Covid-19 is only one strain of Coronavirus, and as I understand it certain forms of the common cold are also Coronaviruses. I think that suggests whatever we can do with Covid-19, there could well be a Covid-20, 21, 22, 23 etc which does not conform to the characteristics of Covid-19.

This is what terrifies me. What if this is like the common cold. There is no vaccine for it, and there will be no vaccine (because of that cytokine storm thing) and you can keep catching it. If it doesn't kill you the first time, it might the 3rd or 4th time you catch it. There will also be no herd immunity.

Like a cold, but it can kill you.

FloatingVoter

Off the topic slightly, but the woman who is possibly my best friend in the real world is a dedicated anti-vaxxer - she knows my own views but I'm on the verge of blocking her on FB over some of the dumb **** she's been posting regarding vaccine conspiracies etc.



This crap is causing real world rifts.....not just drunken arguments on Boards.

owlbethere

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Off the topic slightly, but the woman who is possibly my best friend in the real world is a dedicated anti-vaxxer - she knows my own views but I'm on the verge of blocking her on FB over some of the dumb **** she's been posting regarding vaccine conspiracies etc.



This crap is causing real world rifts.....not just drunken arguments on Boards.

Tempting as it is to block her, maybe hold back for now and try and educate her when she posts.

con___manx1

SuperRabbit wrote: »

1. people refuse to get the flu vaccine and they happily got the smallpox vaccine, so the flu always has loads of hosts available to live and mutate in
2. smallpox doesn't seem to mutate much and the flu does

The flu vaccine is only 60 percent effective. You can still get the flu and the vaccine makes some people sick.

never_mind

owlbethere wrote: »

Tempting as it is to block her, maybe hold back for now and try and educate her when she posts.

Good advice above!

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Beasty wrote: »

Smallpox was around for probably 10s of thousands of years before it was "eradicated". There is no certainty that it, or a variation of it, could re-appear at some stage. As I said previously anything that was created in the first place can be re-created (and I understand this has happened with smallpox in a lab environment)

What do you mean by “recreated”? If there are any smallpox samples in existence somewhere (who knows, there may be a lab somewhere with them) or animal reservoirs anywhere, it could reemerge but if neither of those things exist, are you suggesting that somebody could synthesise the virus from scratch? Can’t recreation only happen if samples of smallpox exist?

FloatingVoter

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

What do you mean by “recreated”? If there are any smallpox samples in existence somewhere (who knows, there may be a lab somewhere with them) or animal reservoirs anywhere, it could reemerge but if neither of those things exist, are you suggesting that somebody could synthesise the virus from scratch? Can’t recreation only happen if samples of smallpox exist?

Central Disease Contrpl in Atlanta has a sample. They also have Ebola on file. That's in the public domain. I'm sure other similar labs have taken the same measures.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

What do you mean by “recreated”? If there are any smallpox samples in existence somewhere (who knows, there may be a lab somewhere with them) or animal reservoirs anywhere, it could reemerge but if neither of those things exist, are you suggesting that somebody could synthesise the virus from scratch? Can’t recreation only happen if samples of smallpox exist?

There's two labs with live samples of smallpox, one in a CDC lab in the US and another in Russia. Main reason is the possibility it re-emerges and vaccines need to be created. Most likely thing outside of a lab accident is that there's unknown animal carriers of it.

I've mentioned before but most important thing to be gained from this is increasing investment in monitoring viruses globally so the red flags show earlier.

daheff

owlbethere wrote: »

Tempting as it is to block her, maybe hold back for now and try and educate her when she posts.

Or maybe just ignore her.

People can hold different views to you....no matter how dumb they are.

lawrencesummers

owlbethere wrote: »

Tempting as it is to block her, maybe hold back for now and try and educate her when she posts.

People on Facebook, by definition are un-educatable.

zerosugarbuzz

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Off the topic slightly, but the woman who is possibly my best friend in the real world is a dedicated anti-vaxxer - she knows my own views but I'm on the verge of blocking her on FB over some of the dumb **** she's been posting regarding vaccine conspiracies etc.



This crap is causing real world rifts.....not just drunken arguments on Boards.

Just unfollow her on Facebook. I had to do that with one of my best friends as she kept posting labour party ****e, how great Moan burton is etc... we are still good friends once I don’t have to see this stuff.

Beasty

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

What do you mean by “recreated”?

Well this was "created" in the first place, perhaps through an unusual sequence of events, possibly not. It may linger in the animal/bat population. We cannot exterminate all such creatures.

It may therefore remain there in the background, or that sequence of events can recur. It's not as if these viruses appeared in the first place by some kind of miraculous event (and even if they did, it it can happen "miraculously" once, what is there to stop something like it happening "miraculously" again?)

Same with smallpox. It was not created in a lab in the first place (my understanding is it has actually been recreated in one though). Just needs the original sequence of events that created it in the first place to recur. Equally there can be a different sequence of events that produce the same or a similar result, possibly something worse next time though

yosemitesam1

Other coronavirus strains aren't fully cleared from at least a proportion of infected individuals (including animals) and can result in asymptomatic shedding of the virus or re-emergence of the infection.
Don't see any reason to believe that covid 19 will be different in this regard

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Central Disease Contrpl in Atlanta has a sample. They also have Ebola on file. That's in the public domain. I'm sure other similar labs have taken the same measures.

Deleted User wrote: »

There's two labs with live samples of smallpox, one in a CDC lab in the US and another in Russia. Main reason is the possibility it re-emerges and vaccines need to be created. Most likely thing outside of a lab accident is that there's unknown animal carriers of it.

I've mentioned before but most important thing to be gained from this is increasing investment in monitoring viruses globally so the red flags show earlier.

I didn’t say there weren’t any lab samples anywhere! I just didn’t have the information at hand. I was questioning recreation in the absence of any.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

I didn’t say there weren’t any lab samples anywhere! I just didn’t have the information at hand. I was questioning recreation in the absence of any.

Oh I know, I just have useless facts that I like to lob out there at appropriatish times.

ILoveYourVibes

I don't know if we can. But at least lets try!

tobefrank321

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Can it be eradicated? What would it take and can we put the effort in required?

Yes.

Depends on how low we can get the R0. If its 0.7, it would take about 4 months to erradicate it. If its 0.5 about 2 months.

Assuming daily new cases today are about 400 including confirmed and suspected and also assuming we don't import new cases. Traveller funerals won't help though and will in all probability lengthen the lockdown.