Eradication

CtevenSrowder

Mateo Nice Tooth wrote: »

So do you see 100+ new cases in Ireland until next summer?

In 6 months time it won't be Summer, it'll be Autumn/beginning of Winter.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

I'm not closing my mind. Can you find any reputable source that suggests it's possible to "eradicate" coronavirus in 6 months max?

Well given its already been done in New Zealand in less time, that's proof first of all.

ek motor

Mateo Nice Tooth wrote: »

So do you see 100+ new cases in Ireland until next summer?

I see the cases decreasing until restrictions are lifted. Cases will then increase after restrictions are lifted. I think lifting some restrictions when it is safe to do so is necessary to allow for economic activity, therefore an increase in new cases is unavoidable. Restrictions to our lives will be the norm until a vaccine or effective drug treatment is available. We will have to adjust to this new reality.

CtevenSrowder

Mateo Nice Tooth wrote: »

Well given its already been done in New Zealand in less time, that's proof first of all.

It's not been eradicated in New Zealand. You're talking out of you arse. No sources because there are none.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

It's not been eradicated in New Zealand. You're talking out of you arse. No sources because there are none.

It has. Have a read of a newspaper chap.

CtevenSrowder

Mateo Nice Tooth wrote: »

It has. Have a read of a newspaper chap.

I have. Look here for instance, nowhere does it say that the virus has been "eradicated":

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/new-zealand-wins-battle-against-transmission-of-coronavirus-1.4238884

What it says is:

Director general of health Ashley Bloomfield said the transmission of the virus had been “eliminated”. This did not mean zero cases, but that health officials knew where all new cases were coming from.

Now I await your sources to back up your claim, which you won't give ofcourse, as they don't exist. Have a read of this thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058073866

for the reasons why comparing Ireland, or indeed anywhere in Europe, with New Zealand is pointless. Finally, I suggest you read whatever papers you are reading more carefully going forward.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

I have. Look here for instance, nowhere does it say that the virus has been "eradicated":

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/new-zealand-wins-battle-against-transmission-of-coronavirus-1.4238884

What it says is:



Now I await your sources to back up your claim, which you won't give ofcourse, as they don't exist. Have a read of this thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058073866

for the reasons why comparing Ireland, or indeed anywhere in Europe, with New Zealand is pointless. Finally, I suggest you read whatever papers you are reading more carefully going forward.

The end of the article literally says they are hunting down the last few cases. They will succeed in this in the next few months at the latest. Then what? Eradication.

drunkmonkey

Deleted User wrote: »

Can it be eradicated? What would it take and can we put the effort in required?

Yes, it requires very strict border controls. We'll be close to it in 4 weeks if we don't continue to import it.
It needs to transfer from host to host, distancing prevents that.

timmy_mallet

SuperRabbit wrote: »

1. people refuse to get the flu vaccine and they happily got the smallpox vaccine, so the flu always has loads of hosts available to live and mutate in
2. smallpox doesn't seem to mutate much and the flu does

1. You dont understand the flu vaccine.

ShineOn7

So if the posts on here and other threads are correct:

• No Immunity is coming
• No vaccine is coming. If it does, it wont work
• It has about a 1% mortality rate
• 50/60% of the world's population will get it

Meaning 1% of 4 Billion will die

And to think, I nicknamed Sky News "Gloom Porn"

This place is Sky News in forum form

CtevenSrowder

Mateo Nice Tooth wrote: »

The end of the article literally says they are hunting down the last few cases. They will succeed in this in the next few months at the latest. Then what? Eradication.

Can you read? It says:

"To succeed we must hunt down the last few cases of the virus,” said Ardern. “This is like looking for a needle in a haystack.”

To that end, a contact tracing app for Covid-19 would also be available in the next fortnight. However, Ms Ardern said that had limitations."

It gives no time line for eradication, and as stated, cases are most likely to increase after a lifting of restrictions.

Regardless, this is all besides the point as Ireland, and Europe, are not compatible to NZ with regards this outbreak. You're plan is a non-runner. Just accept it and move on.

yosemitesam1

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Can you read? It says:

"To succeed we must hunt down the last few cases of the virus,” said Ardern. “This is like looking for a needle in a haystack.”

To that end, a contact tracing app for Covid-19 would also be available in the next fortnight. However, Ms Ardern said that had limitations."

It gives no time line for eradication, and as stated, cases are most likely to increase after a lifting of restrictions.

Regardless, this is all besides the point as Ireland, and Europe, are not compatible to NZ with regards this outbreak. You're plan is a non-runner. Just accept it and move on.

It should also be taken into account that covid 19 hit Europe in the main coronavirus season and it's three months from the main coronavirus season in nz

drunkmonkey

There calling for everyone to get the flu vaccine including children,
Preparations for next winter’s flu season need to begin immediately, and should include the provision of that vaccine to children, according to a former president of the Irish Medical Organisation (IM0).

The health service is facing a possible “double whammy” from Covid-19 and flu next winter, and needs to minimise this by ensuring the widest possible uptake of the flu vaccine, according to Dublin GP Ray Walley.
(From the Irish Times today)Call for preparations for next winter’s flu season to begin immediately (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/call-for-preparations-for-next-winter-s-flu-season-to-begin-immediately-1.4240243

Am I missing something, is the FLU not imported as it too is a coronavirus.
If were not importing Covid we should also not be importing the Flu if restrictions are in place. Distancing will probably still be with us, where will this so called double whammy come from.

hmmm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Am I missing something, is the FLU not imported as it too is a coronavirus.
If were not importing Covid we should also not be importing the Flu if restrictions are in place. Distancing will probably still be with us, where will this so called double whammy come from.

Just get the vaccine and don't give people more excuses to avoid it.

Flu fills our hospitals every Winter, and we're probably going to have Covid on top now. Do your bit.

EDit

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There calling for everyone to get the flu vaccine including children,
Preparations for next winter’s flu season need to begin immediately, and should include the provision of that vaccine to children, according to a former president of the Irish Medical Organisation (IM0).

The health service is facing a possible “double whammy” from Covid-19 and flu next winter, and needs to minimise this by ensuring the widest possible uptake of the flu vaccine, according to Dublin GP Ray Walley.
(From the Irish Times today)Call for preparations for next winter’s flu season to begin immediately (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/call-for-preparations-for-next-winter-s-flu-season-to-begin-immediately-1.4240243

Am I missing something, is the FLU not imported as it too is a coronavirus.
If were not importing Covid we should also not be importing the Flu if restrictions are in place. Distancing will probably still be with us, where will this so called double whammy come from.

Flu is caused by the inFLUenza virus, it is not a coronavirus. It’s pretty likely that mild cases throughout the summer will keep it here. That said restrictions on movement, socialisation, and international travel would almost certainly have an impact on its spread (if those restrictions stay in place all summer, of course, which is unlikely)

ek motor

ShineOn7 wrote: »

[*]No vaccine is coming. If it does, it wont work

Where did you read this ?

yosemitesam1

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There calling for everyone to get the flu vaccine including children,
Preparations for next winter’s flu season need to begin immediately, and should include the provision of that vaccine to children, according to a former president of the Irish Medical Organisation (IM0).

The health service is facing a possible “double whammy” from Covid-19 and flu next winter, and needs to minimise this by ensuring the widest possible uptake of the flu vaccine, according to Dublin GP Ray Walley.
(From the Irish Times today)Call for preparations for next winter’s flu season to begin immediately (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/call-for-preparations-for-next-winter-s-flu-season-to-begin-immediately-1.4240243

Am I missing something, is the FLU not imported as it too is a coronavirus.
If were not importing Covid we should also not be importing the Flu if restrictions are in place. Distancing will probably still be with us, where will this so called double whammy come from.

Hopefully it will be properly investigated whether or not the flu vaccine makes one more likely to suffer from covid 19 as there's a limited amount of data that it could increase the likelihood of suffering from other coronavirus strains.
Upping flu vaccination rates might not give the desired outcome if so.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Can you read? It says:

"To succeed we must hunt down the last few cases of the virus,” said Ardern. “This is like looking for a needle in a haystack.”

To that end, a contact tracing app for Covid-19 would also be available in the next fortnight. However, Ms Ardern said that had limitations."

It gives no time line for eradication, and as stated, cases are most likely to increase after a lifting of restrictions.

Regardless, this is all besides the point as Ireland, and Europe, are not compatible to NZ with regards this outbreak. You're plan is a non-runner. Just accept it and move on.

Obviously the trade off is not lifting restrictions for a few more weeks or months to eliminate it. Anyway I'm not going back and forth with you. Waste of time. Cheerio.

CtevenSrowder

Mateo Nice Tooth wrote: »

Obviously the trade off is not lifting restrictions for a few more weeks or months to eliminate it. Anyway I'm not going back and forth with you. Waste of time. Cheerio.

Yes and the problems with not lifting restrictions for months on end have been done to death on these fora. Silly idea. Glad you are moving on. Goodluck.

ShineOn7

ek motor wrote: »

Where did you read this ?

I was citing the many posts on here that seem to say that, basically, we're fúcked and that no vaccine or herd immunity is coming

tobefrank321

It makes more sense to impose restrictions on those who are most likely to suffer seriously, such as those over 80 and those with the underlying conditions likely to cause death or ICU admission, than to impose them on everyone.

You wouldn't stop everyone driving just because of a relatively small number of fatalities. You'd target drivers and driving behaviour most at risk of causing fatal accidents.

ek motor

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I was citing the many posts on here that seem to say that, basically, we're fúcked and that no vaccine or herd immunity is coming

Yes Ive read similar on here regarding the vaccine but have yet to read from a credible source saying there is 'no chance' of a vaccine, or giving a detailed explanation of why they think this is the case.

Can it be eradicated with a global vaccination program? Possibly.

Can it be eradicated through New Zealand or Taiwan style isolation, testing and tracing? Very, very unlikely.

They are really two different questions and muddying the water doesn't help.

About 300 years or more since the first smallpox vaccines we managed to eradicate it. There is currently no C19 vaccine. So I wouldn't hold your breathe on that one.

In terms of isolation, testing and tracing you are always in danger of reinfection at any time. You have to close borders, including to most trade (anything landing is a risk). You have to permanently ban activities that make contact tracing impossible or impractical (pubs, clubs, mass events).

I'm not knocking the fantastic success of places like South Korea or NZ but I question if it can really lead to eradication.

yosemitesam1

Deleted User wrote: »

Can it be eradicated with a global vaccination program? Possibly.

Can it be eradicated through New Zealand or Taiwan style isolation, testing and tracing? Very, very unlikely.

They are really two different questions and muddying the water doesn't help.

About 300 years or more since the first smallpox vaccines we managed to eradicate it. There is currently no C19 vaccine. So I wouldn't hold your breathe on that one.

In terms of isolation, testing and tracing you are always in danger of reinfection at any time. You have to close borders, including to most trade (anything landing is a risk). You have to permanently ban activities that make contact tracing impossible or impractical (pubs, clubs, mass events).

I'm not knocking the fantastic success of places like South Korea or NZ but I question if it can really lead to eradication.

It's normal for post recovery shedding to occur with other coronavirus strains. There's no reason to think covid 19 will be any different. Eradication with or without a vaccine will most likely be impossible because of this.

hmmm

tobefrank321 wrote: »

It makes more sense to impose restrictions on those who are most likely to suffer seriously, such as those over 80 and those with the underlying conditions likely to cause death or ICU admission, than to impose them on everyone.

The modelling shows that simply cocooning the elderly still causes a huge spike in ICU admissions. Cocooning needs to be combined with social-distancing to get the spike down under ICU capacities.

I think people are forgetting that while the mortality for younger age groups is a lot less, this disease still causes lots of people to need hospitalisation. If our hospitals are over-run, the fatality rate for all ages will be significantly higher. This is what happened in Wuhan when the overall fatality rate hit 5.8%, while it was less than 1% in the rest of China.

drunkmonkey

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

It's normal for post recovery shedding to occur with other coronavirus strains. There's no reason to think covid 19 will be any different. Eradication with or without a vaccine will most likely be impossible because of this.

How long does shedding last? I assume you mean people can still transmit it when you say shedding. Leads me to ask is 14 days isolation not enough.

yosemitesam1

drunkmonkey wrote: »

How long does shedding last? I assume you mean people can still transmit it when you say shedding. Leads me to ask is 14 days isolation not enough.

Other strains can cause infection that is recovered from but relapse or shedding can occur at a much later date. How exactly it happens isn't known

untitled no. 1

trapp wrote: »

If it was that simple someone would have thought of it already.

Can you imagine how many great ideas humankind is currently without because people assume "someone would have thought of it already". It's like the ad that says "If you smell gas on the street, call gas networks Ireland... don't assume someone else will"

There's no point in talking down to the OP. At least the he/she makes a good point in saying that everyone who travels should be tested.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

tobefrank321 wrote: »

It makes more sense to impose restrictions on those who are most likely to suffer seriously, such as those over 80 and those with the underlying conditions likely to cause death or ICU admission, than to impose them on everyone.

You wouldn't stop everyone driving just because of a relatively small number of fatalities. You'd target drivers and driving behaviour most at risk of causing fatal accidents.

To apply those restrictions, everyone in regular close contact with the at-risk person would also have to be subject to the restrictions. It's completely impractical not to mention unbearable for all the people involved. I'm one of the at-risk people. I have limited time left on this earth and I'm 36 years old. Being severely restricted for the comparatively small amount of time I have left on this planet? Fuck that shit. And asking all my loved ones to severely restrict their lives too? As if we aren't under enough strain as it is.

Whatever the solution, it needs to acknowledge that at-risk people are still people who deserve as normal a life as possible, like everyone else. We still have inner lives, we are as affected by mental health issues as anyone else. Asking us to hide away indefinitely is cruel and lacking in compassion. I'd frankly rather die than live some long-term crappy half life.

Australia and New Zealand have done an exceptional job controlling COVID-19.

As of May 7, there were 794 active cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Only 62 were in hospital.

The situation in New Zealand is similar, with 136 active cases, only two of whom are in hospital.

If we continue on this path, could we eliminate COVID-19 from Australia and New Zealand?

For disease elimination, there must be zero new cases of the disease in a defined geographic area. There is no defined time period this needs to be sustained for – it usually depends on the incubation period of the disease (the time between being exposed to the virus and the onset of symptoms).

For example, the South Australian government is looking for 28 days of no new coronavirus cases (twice the incubation period of COVID-19) before they will consider it eliminated

Finally, disease eradication is when there is zero incidence worldwide of a disease following deliberate efforts to get rid of it. In this scenario, we no longer need intervention measures.

Only two infectious diseases have been declared eradicated by the World Health Organisation – smallpox in 1980 and rinderpest (a disease in cattle caused by the paramyxovirus) in 2011.

Polio is close to eradication with only 539 cases reported worldwide in 2019.

Guinea worm disease is also close with a total of just 19 human cases from January to June 2019 across two African countries.

https://theconversation.com/we-may-well-be-able-to-eliminate-coronavirus-but-well-probably-never-eradicate-it-heres-the-difference-137991

Lessons learned: The eradication of smallpox 40 years ago

It took a flexible yet consistent vaccination campaign by the World Health Organization to systematically contain and eradicate smallpox. Could the success story be a model in the fight against the new coronavirus?

https://www.dw.com/en/lessons-learned-the-eradication-of-smallpox-40-years-ago/a-53362987

New Zealand wants coronavirus elimination, Australia wants COVID-19 'suppression' — but can we have both?

A gradual lifting of social-distancing restrictions would follow broader testing and better contact tracing over the next three weeks, he said, giving medical staff time to prepare for any potential second or third-wave outbreaks.

He stressed Australia was "not in eradication mode".

This differs from New Zealand's hard shutdown — which was wound back slightly this week — and elimination policy.

But with the latest statistics showing Australia in a better position than many predicted — and almost on-par with New Zealand's cases per head of population — some, like Victoria's Chief Health Officer, have put elimination back on the agenda.

University of Queensland virologist Kirsty Short told the ABC that Australia's case numbers over the past two weeks suggested eradication of coronavirus was feasible.

According to the World Health Organisation, "eradication" is defined as four weeks without a single case — the equivalent of two incubation periods.

Dr Short said the problem with the elimination strategy, if it was implemented, meant it would block off our borders "indefinitely" as the virus continued to spread outside of Australia.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-22/coronavirus-eradication-suppression-new-zealand-australia/12172100