CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

1641

GM228 wrote: »

Average is 3, mean is 2.

Statisticians usually use mean to dictate the midrange in statiatics.

In statistics the mean and the median are two different ways that are frequently used to calculate the average. In a normal distribution the mean is usually preferred. However, the median is often preferred in a skewed distribution, particularly if heavily skewed.



You have a serious case of confusion.Have a little read here:


https://www.purplemath.com/modules/meanmode.htm

rm212

patnor1011 wrote: »

Do you think we are not in for second wave?

If we loosen the restrictions I certainly think we are, if we don’t, I’m not entirely sure what will happen but it will certainly be worse if everything goes back to normal already.

rm212

Bob24 wrote: »

You are probably right. Unless at the same time as loosening the in-country restrictions they have plenty of masks, tests, isolation facilities, ICU beds / ventilators, and have tight sanitary border checks in place.

I would doubt they have all of that, but I could be wrong.

Funnily enough, Finland probably does have all of that. Their healthcare is regarded among the best in the world. Yet at 27 deaths they have among the tightest and furthest CONFIRMED restrictions (ie. confirmed current scheduled end date) in Europe.

Inquitus

rm212 wrote: »

If we loosen the restrictions I certainly think we are, if we don’t, I’m not entirely sure what will happen but it will certainly be worse if everything goes back to normal already.

The only way to be sure is widespread antibody testing, without some sort of statistical clarity from that there is no way of knowing what might happen!

speckle

GM228 wrote: »

It was confirmed by the Hong Kong Government's Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department.

Here's the official press release:-

https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202002/28/P2020022800013.htm

A domestic cat in Belgium also tested positive
late March.

The media reporting of the Tiger in NY being the first confirmed animal is simply incorrect.

True however, some people have been pointing to potential flaws in the Belgium paper already. how they choose the cats the way they were kept in cages nearer to factory farming then domestic pets. and the virus wss only found in poo so a question if it was active.
I particularly note they had problems and had to give up on nasal swaps as ' the cats were too agressive.' you go cat!
Cats should not be victimised because 1 or 2 test positive because us humans gave the virus to them.
ps we can thanks our lucky stars for cats because of them we have the remdesivir trials for humans ongoing.
It wss cat charitys who fianced the extra research into that drug after scientists gave up on it for its original potentional usage.

SeaBreezes

patnor1011 wrote: »

Nobody is saying everyone who died is older than 70.
Nobody can also claim that by simply being "medical staff" means you are in perfect health.
Perhaps it is the same as that unfortunate nurse from UK which was being plastered all over media scaring people that even young "healthy" people can die.
Poor girl was seriously overweight which reduced her chance of survival.
Do you claim that none of those 100 you mention had any underlying medical conditions?

Perhaps we should get volunteers to get infected and roll the dice after signing a form they won't take space in ICU.

You first.

ZX7R

I see China has reported no new deaths

caveat emptor

What's the rule for returning to work if you did have it? A friend is just over it and told to return to work by Doc this morning despite still not having test result. Was sick for full two weeks and two people tested positive in the house and were ill also.

Friend is worried as they need money but don't want to infect other people. It's a medical / legal question. Not sure what to tell them.

EDIT: they still have head cold symptoms. blocked nose sinuses ect.

Anita Blow

Discodog wrote: »

The iron lung argument makes sense to me. If the lungs are damaged it must be tricky to push enough air in without causing more damage - think of a balloon with some weak points.

It's been constantly stressed that these devices need very skilled operators.

This typically isn't an issue for modern ventilators! Ventilators tell us the peak pressures in the lung (IE- how much resistance is being offered). We can adjust the inspiratory/expiratory flow rates to maximise oxygenation while staying within a safe peak pressure that won't damage the lung.

YFlyer

patnor1011 wrote: »

Not to mention that latest research found that this virus is attacking ability of red blood cells to carry oxygen. No matter how much you pump in person when their body cant use it anyway.

Wonder would injecting erythropoietin to help the body produce extra red blood cells be of some benefit?

Gooey Looey

caveat emptor wrote: »

What's the rule for returning to work if you did have it? A friend is just over it and told to return to work by Doc this morning despite still not having test result. Was sick for full two weeks and two people tested positive in the house and were ill also.

Friend is worried as they need money but don't want to infect other people. It's a medical / legal question. Not sure what to tell them.

Tell them to heed the doctor, they know best

AlmightyCushion

caveat emptor wrote: »

What's the rule for returning to work if you did have it? A friend is just over it and told to return to work by Doc this morning despite still not having test result. Was sick for full two weeks and two people tested positive in the house and were ill also.

Friend is worried as they need money but don't want to infect other people. It's a medical / legal question. Not sure what to tell them.

EDIT: they still have head cold symptoms. blocked nose sinuses ect.

According to Tony Holohan, 14 days from first noticing symptoms and at least 5 days symptoms free.

is_that_so

patnor1011 wrote: »

Do you think we are not in for second wave?

We might be, but we've gained a lot more knowledge in these two months as to what to do. That means we should be in a much better position to manage it on testing, isolating and aggressive contact tracing. In addition, the public is now ready for it and likely to respond a whole lot better if we need to implement new restrictions. There may well still be some cases out there in September but measures will have to ease well before then.

caveat emptor

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

According to Tony Holohan, 14 days from first noticing symptoms and at least 5 days symptoms free.

That makes more sense thanks. Doctor doesn't want to write a sick note for the person but they still have head cold symptoms. Seems mad to tell someone to return to work no matter how mild. This person was in the horrors and is recovered but infection could still be spread. Testing took too long.

laurah591

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

According to Tony Holohan, 14 days from first noticing symptoms and at least 5 days symptoms free.

Either way, employee should discuss with his boss and investigate taking additional sick leave , annual leave or turning up for work given that his doctor said ok to work

alt. get a new doctor for an alternative opinion

Fallschirmjager

ZX7R wrote: »

I see China has reported no new deaths

honestly, i dont believe China on anything now. Those figures are right up there with only a few died in Tiananmen Square. One thing that is clear from this, China has lied at the start, middle and end of this and is no longer trustworthy. The medical gear failure rate (both locally here and internationally) and how they behaved buying up worldwide stocks in January when they knew this transmitted person to person is nothing short of appalling. The other org that will get a total revamp is the WHO. They need mass firing at the WHO, in fact the only person who didnt come across as a puppet and a complete moron was the irish dude (he sometimes is on the main panel). The payback on the tail of this for china will be epic (and not in a good way). the CCP is toast, wont happen overnight but does anyone believe they only had 3k deaths? i mean really...

on a good note, Ireland has done awesome managing this...and we should also take a bow. its not over but it looks like we are now at the peak or near peak and it should drop from this week forward (fingers crossed). No time to relax but it looks like we avoided what is still unfolding in Spain/Italy.

the next step is to copy South Korea/Taiwan/Hong Kong. Massive fast testing and local lockdown when a breakout happens. Then we can get our economy back up at least in some form. Also seems there is multiple vaccines on the way and should be here by the Autumn.

woohoo!!!

Ah quit being mean folks, the average punter hasn't the foggiest about medians

syngindub

Jees Belgium reporting a lot of deaths today.
400+

smelly sock

I think we need to guard against being complacent and lifting restrictions to early or leaving them in place to long.

The Chinese data is BS but if you take it as fact then they have take 6 Months or so to really get this thing under control. I doubt they are telling the truth though.

I'll be slaughtered for this but people just want certainty. About events they have planned or holidays etc. For me all of these things should be cancelled at govt level for the next 4 months. Lets see where we are at then.

Ha Long Bay

syngindub wrote: »

Jees Belgium reporting a lot of deaths today.
400+

It's explained in the notes.

https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/Meest%20recente%20update.pdf

"162 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours and 241 additional deaths in residential care centers in Flanders were reported between April 1 and April 4. This gives a total of 403 deaths"

Seamai

syngindub wrote: »

Jees Belgium reporting a lot of deaths today.
400+

Just spotted that, and 1380 new cases, very worrying given the size of it's population.

Widdensushi

smelly sock wrote: »

I think we need to guard against being complacent and lifting restrictions to early or leaving them in place to long.

The Chinese data is BS but if you take it as fact then they have take 6 Months or so to really get this thing under control. I doubt they are telling the truth though.

I'll be slaughtered for this but people just want certainty. About events they have planned or holidays etc. For me all of these things should be cancelled at govt level for the next 4 months. Lets see where we are at then.

I don't think anyone thinks events will be going ahead in the next few months, it's important to let factories etc get back working soon to keep some industry going, if the health system is coping. It seems to be heading for near full ICU capacity at the moment but as we are 2 weeks behind seeing the results of the measures taken I think some measures could be relaxed next week

Bob24

smelly sock wrote: »

The Chinese data is BS but if you take it as fact then they have take 6 Months or so to really get this thing under control. I doubt they are telling the truth though.

I wouldn't take all the data at face value (the total death count in Wuhan is probably understated). But from a bird’s-eye view (as well as personal connections in China) it is clear to me that they have factually managed to mostly contain the outbreak to Hubei, and that currently it is under control.

Critical thinking is good but it shouldn't prevent us from seeing the big picture for what it is simply because some of the details don't look right.

Seamai

john4321 wrote: »

It's explained in the notes.

https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/Meest%20recente%20update.pdf

"162 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours and 241 additional deaths in residential care centers in Flanders were reported between April 1 and April 4. This gives a total of 403 deaths"

Even 162 is very high for their size.

woohoo!!!

Widdensushi wrote: »

I don't think anyone thinks events will be going ahead in the next few months, it's important to let factories etc get back working soon to keep some industry going, if the health system is coping. It seems to be heading for near full ICU capacity at the moment but as we are 2 weeks behind seeing the results of the measures taken I think some measures could be relaxed next week

When they get infection rate down to less than 1 and have a large enough random test samples to get a grasp on how prevalent it is in the general population, then things can't be relaxed.

Widdensushi

woohoo!!! wrote: »

When they get infection rate down to less than 1 and have a large enough random test samples to get a grasp on how prevalent it is in the general population, then things can't be relaxed.

yes sir

Beasty

GM228 wrote: »

Mean and average are not quite the same, this is a common mistake made, they produce different results.

OK, I'll put my maths hat on here, as there is a lot of confusion

"average" is a generic term covering a number of different bases for trying to find some kind of "central point" of a data set

However there are several different measures that are all considered different forms of "average"

The 3 main ones are:

"mean" - this is the one most commonly referred to in this thread. It's the aggregate of the data set divided by the number of items in that data set
The mean of 1, 2, 2, 3, 4 = (1+2+2+3+4)/5 = 2.4

"median" is the "middle" number - in the above example it's the 3rd digit of five - 2

"mode" is the most common number - in this case there are 2 x 2s with every other number being there once. hence the mode is also 2

What this all means is "average" is not a defined term. It can be any of the above. The terms mean and median, which have been used often in these threads, are defined mathematical terms

citysights

skimpydoo wrote: »

Something weird is happening on the Quays where I live. just across the river from the IFSC to be precise. A Gardai helicopter has been flying around for the last 15 minutes and a paddy wagon just drove by with someone using a loudspeaker. I could not hear what was said as it was a street down from me when used.

Could you hear what loudspeaker was saying?

mouldybiscuits

There seems to be so much anti-Chinese opinions here it's a bit worrying and I wonder how much of it has been caused by Western media bias. Propaganda is very real and it is used in the West just as much as in other parts of the world. China enforced an extreme lockdown to contain the virus, one which wouldn't be accepted in Western societies. They obviously angered a lot of people with it but they did it to save lives which is admirable. They immediately released the genome for the virus so the whole world can work together on a vaccine. They're supplying PPE worldwide even to their economic rivals.
Meanwhile USA is increasing sanctions on countries like Iran who are seriously suffering with the virus. They also intercepted an import of PPE destined for Germany in what was called an act of modern piracy. They tried to get EU companies to move to America to make medical equipment there instead. Russia and China are doing a lot more for Europe than America are and we really need to rethink who is our ally here. We must form our opinions based on actions not on hearsay and propaganda which we in the West seem to pretend doesn't exist in our lives.

the.red.baron

patnor1011 wrote: »

If you think that people in nursing homes are "cocooned" even now you are mistaken.

thats as cocooned as you are going to get