CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

the.red.baron

patnor1011 wrote: »

That solely depends on what you perceive as "normal".

If you think that we are going back what it was before lockdown then sorry but that is not going to happen.
If you think 2008 was bad then you will see that that was just a walk in the park compared to what awaits all of us.

Boris is that you, the UK tried what you suggest and hows that going

Alf Veedersane

citysights wrote: »

Could you hear what loudspeaker was saying?

"DROP THE PHONE, GEMMA!"

Achasanai

patnor1011 wrote: »

Give it a week or two.
For your information - there is not much of a testing done these days anyway.
Just last week I had to call for ambulance 2 times as I simply could not explain to the people who demanded it that they do not need ambulance. Off they went only to come back couple hours later.

Give it a week or two? You said that it 'is a fact reported by many doctors' that hospitals were overloaded. The CMO and others have said otherwise. Is this overloading happening now (as per your original post) or in a week?

the.red.baron

Beasty wrote: »

OK, I'll put my maths hat on here, as there is a lot of confusion

"average" is a generic term covering a number of different bases for trying to find some kind of "central point" of a data set

However there are several different measures that are all considered different forms of "average"

The 3 main ones are:

"mean" - this is the one most commonly referred to in this thread. It's the aggregate of the data set divided by the number of items in that data set
The mean of 1, 2, 2, 3, 4 = (1+2+2+3+4)/5 = 2.4

"median" is the "middle" number - in the above example it's the 3rd digit of five - 2

"mode" is the most common number - in this case there are 2 x 2s with every other number being there once. hence the mode is also 2

What this all means is "average" is not a defined term. It can be any of the above. The terms mean and median, which have been used often in these threads, are defined mathematical terms

can we add in a rule that no one can mention the words, mean, average or median in this thread again

Hector Savage

Beasty wrote: »

OK, I'll put my maths hat on here, as there is a lot of confusion

"average" is a generic term covering a number of different bases for trying to find some kind of "central point" of a data set

However there are several different measures that are all considered different forms of "average"

The 3 main ones are:

"mean" - this is the one most commonly referred to in this thread. It's the aggregate of the data set divided by the number of items in that data set
The mean of 1, 2, 2, 3, 4 = (1+2+2+3+4)/5 = 2.4

"median" is the "middle" number - in the above example it's the 3rd digit of five - 2

"mode" is the most common number - in this case there are 2 x 2s with every other number being there once. hence the mode is also 2

What this all means is "average" is not a defined term. It can be any of the above. The terms mean and median, which have been used often in these threads, are defined mathematical terms

Whats the point in using median , it's utter crap and tells nothing ...

example the median of 1, 2, 2, 3, 4,78,4589 is 3 .... i mean f*ck off!!

nj27

Are there any numbers available for the total recoveries in Ireland? Worldometer has it at 25 currently which seems way too low.

JDD

How is the Japanese infection and death rate so low? 4k infections, 97 deaths, from a population of 126m?? And they haven't even done a complete lockdown?

Widdensushi

Hector Savage wrote: »

Whats the point in using median , it's utter crap and tells nothing ...

example the median of 1, 2, 2, 3, 4,78,4589 is 3 .... i mean f*ck off!!

we need a covid math thread

Alf Veedersane

Hector Savage wrote: »

Whats the point in using median , it's utter crap and tells nothing ...

example the median of 1, 2, 2, 3, 4,78,4589 is 3 .... i mean f*ck off!!

The mean would be 668 and that would be even more meaningless.

the.red.baron

JDD wrote: »

How is the Japanese infection and death rate so low? 4k infections, 97 deaths, from a population of 126m?? And they haven't even done a complete lockdown?

its so low why have they declared an emergency, weird wah?

citysights

Alf Veedersane wrote: »

"DROP THE PHONE, GEMMA!"

Gosh I only asked a question because it is a strange story if indeed true. No need for sarcasm in capital letters, utterly childish.

jackboy

JDD wrote: »

How is the Japanese infection and death rate so low? 4k infections, 97 deaths, from a population of 126m?? And they haven't even done a complete lockdown?

They are not touchy-feely and social distancing is a part of their culture.

Alf Veedersane

citysights wrote: »

Gosh I only asked a question because it is a strange story if indeed true. No need for sarcasm in capital letters, utterly childish.

I think you might have misinterpreted my post.

the.red.baron

Hector Savage wrote: »

Whats the point in using median , it's utter crap and tells nothing ...

example the median of 1, 2, 2, 3, 4,78,4589 is 3 .... i mean f*ck off!!

what does telling you the average is 500 tell you

Wombatman

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Ah quit being mean folks, the average punter hasn't the foggiest about medians

What do you mean by this?

wakka12

Record 406 deaths in Belgium this morning..far more deaths per capita in one day than even any of the worst hit countries so far such as Italy and Spain..equivalent to countries that size recording over 2000 deaths in a day

RugbyLad11

JDD wrote: »

How is the Japanese infection and death rate so low? 4k infections, 97 deaths, from a population of 126m?? And they haven't even done a complete lockdown?

Everyone wears a mask.

JDD

jackboy wrote: »

They are not touchy-feely and social distancing is a part of their culture.

I know they don't hug each other, but they're all packed in on those trains every morning and the streets always look like Croke Park has just emptied. And their first infections started weeks before ours.

You can't say that they carried out the same process as South Korea, as Japans testing rate is really low. That might explain the low number of positive tests, but it can't explain the really low death rate. Similar to Italy, they have an older population.

And I know they declared a state of emergency for some provinces today, which prompted me to look up their numbers. I just can't get my head around it.

wakka12

JDD wrote: »

How is the Japanese infection and death rate so low? 4k infections, 97 deaths, from a population of 126m?? And they haven't even done a complete lockdown?

Extremely low testing rate of 365 per million according to worldometres. Ireland tests 6119 per million, Germany tested 11,000 per million

Hector Savage

Alf Veedersane wrote: »

The mean would be 668 and that would be even more meaningless.

Well at least that makes sense in as the 4,000 pulls the value up ... an ordered list with the number in the centre is pointless ...

rm212

Hector Savage wrote: »

Whats the point in using median , it's utter crap and tells nothing ...

example the median of 1, 2, 2, 3, 4,78,4589 is 3 .... i mean f*ck off!!

It’s less sensitive to outliers than the mean. In your sample set there (it’s a bit too small really to make a proper claim), you could consider 78 and 4589 as outliers because they are so far from the 1,2,2,3,4 and so 3 is a more accurate description of the general set perhaps, than the mean, which is mean-ingless here, excuse the pun.

froog

Isnt mean, mode median taught in school? Its not rocket science.

JDD

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Everyone wears a mask.

Is that it? Is the answer simply that? Because if it is, whoever in WHO said masks were useless to the general population, should be jailed.

Achasanai

jackboy wrote: »

They are not touchy-feely and social distancing is a part of their culture.

I doubt there's a huge amount of social-distancing going on in Tokyo.



There is some suggestions that a major lockdown is pending as figures may have been 'massaged' to give a better impression of how things were going for the now-cancelled Olympics.

Padraig Mor

Hector Savage wrote: »

Whats the point in using median , it's utter crap and tells nothing ...

example the median of 1, 2, 2, 3, 4,78,4589 is 3 .... i mean f*ck off!!

That's precisely why it's used - it filters 'outliers' from the data set and gives a better representation of the 'average'.

e.g. if 11 people die of the virus with the ages 36, 41, 75, 78, 81, 82, 83, 83, 87, 91, 93. The mean of these is ~75.5, giving the impression that the 'average' age was 75.5 - yet 8 of the 11 ages are actually higher than than the mean - i.e. in this case the mean significantly underrepresents what most people would regard as the average age of those who died. The median however is 82, which gives a much better representation of the 'average' age of those who died.

RugbyLad11

I just woke up with a head cold today and I've no idea how I got it because I haven't been outside in over 1 week...

Interested Observer

Hector Savage wrote: »

Well at least that makes sense in as the 4,000 pulls the value up ... an ordered list with the number in the centre is pointless ...

Another expert, we better let statisticians all over the world know.

iguana

smelly sock wrote: »

About events they have planned or holidays etc. For me all of these things should be cancelled at govt level for the next 4 months. Lets see where we are at then.

The British Foreign Office yesterday advised it's citizens to cancel all foreign travel indefinitely. Germany has announced that from April 10th a 14 day quarantine for almost anyone entering from abroad will be mandatory. Denmark has extended it's closure of it's borders. The Czech Republic is planning to look at ways to reopen it's borders but will only do so in a limited way (maybe introducing a quarantine for entrants). And that's just Europe, many countries all over the world have introduced very tight border restrictions.

I suspect that restrictions on day to day life will be lifted bit by bit over the coming weeks and months but the very last thing to go back to any sort of normal will be leisure travel to other countries. The only way countries can have a semblance of normal life at home will be to exercise extreme caution with regard to infection rates spiking due to foreign travel. And even when international travel restrictions can be lifted, airlines and tourist reliant businesses will almost certainly not be in a position to return to what was normal for a very, very long time, if ever. In the mid-term the only holidays I'd be considering might go ahead are domestic ones. (Or possibly trips to the UK, as the NI border means it's probably necessary for us to stay in step with them.)

wakka12

00benski wrote: »

A really good friend of mine well his mother passed away in a nursing home on Saturday. She has been extremely sick for a couple of months, had stopped eating etc. He was told a few weeks ago that she could pass away at any stage and prepare for the worst. Unfortunately during this time 2 people in the home tested positive for covid-19.

He or his family never got to say his goodbyes and her death had been put down as a Covid-19 death which he himself finds a bit strange considering she wasn't tested or had symptoms for it at all. He hasn't the energy to question this with authoritys yet but finds it hard to believe she died from that considering how sick she was, and not tested.

I am not for a minute saying this virus is not bad or anything like that but it does make me wonder about the death rate they are putting out daily, is it inflated for whatever reason? His mother was obviously one of them. Really sad times for him and his family.

If she did not test positive for COVID she was not counted in the official death toll.

JDD

wakka12 wrote: »

Extremely low testing rate of 365 per million according to worldometres. Ireland tests 6119 per million, Germany tested 11,000 per million

That would explain the low number of positive tests, but not the extremely low death rate.