CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

speckle

bennyl10 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-can-expect-400-deaths-by-august-1.4223043


Ireland has passed its peak of Covid-19 infections but can expected more than 400 deaths by August, according to new international modelling data published today

Come on Ireland we can do it keep social distancing or isolation. It can be bloody hard and tedious. We can do it! Do it for all those in hospital, nursing homes, the vunerable, your family and friends, essential workers . And yourself, so you can look back on yourself with honor that you rose to the occasion in whatever ever way you could.

Not in Kansas

So 400 only if our current restrictions last till August? Surely that's not feasable and so the projections are meaningless.

SuperTortoise

frillyleaf wrote: »

Wow this is fantastic news! Does this mean we have handled this really well and are over the worst of it? That is absolutely brilliant!

It's a computer based prediction, nobody has jumped through a time portal and back again to report their findings...


I will be amazed if those predictions for Ireland turn out to be correct.

MrMusician18

Deleted User wrote: »

If true, this is an outstanding result for the country

I always question the results of broad studies - as they often have to make sweeping generalisations to account for variability in data quality as well as for for cross comparison.often these simplifications introduce huge error.

I'll hold off on the champagne until Irish modeling has determined that we've passed the peak. One can't help but feel positive though.

Maybe it's the sunshine.

kilkenny31

bennyl10 wrote: »

“Peak resource use of hospital and ICU beds passed on April 4th, while peak deaths passed on April 6th, according to the data published by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in the US.

The research looks at the predicted spread and impact of coronavirus in 29 European countries and assumes social distancing measures will remain in place until August.

It predicts there will be more than 150,000 deaths in Europe during the “first wave” of the pandemic.

In relation to Ireland, it says there was “no overall bed shortage” on the peak date, with a shortage of 88 ICU beds.

This calculation was based on the pre-pandemic availability of about 250 ICU beds in Ireland; this capacity has since been at least doubled, indicated an ever greater surplus of capacity under these modelling assumptions.

A total of 401 deaths are forecast in Ireland by August 4th.

The study predicts 66,300 deaths in the UK, the highest in Europe. The UK’s use of bed resources is predicted to peak on April 17th and its deaths on April 20th.

It says the peak of the pandemic has passed in many European countries, including Spain, Italy and France, where 19,209, 20,300 and 15,058 deaths are predicted, respectively.

“It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates,” said IHME director Dr Christopher Murray.

“Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”

Careful, this wont sit well with a lot of people on here. Remember people were out in parks two weeks ago so we are supposed to be like Italy now. Also some guys neighbours were walking THREE abreast and he had to squeeze past them so that means there will have to be further restrictions because NOBODY is adhering to the measures and things are going to get out of control.

elvis83

Do you think the airline and air industry in general will ever recover? Can't see it ever going back to how it was, even if things settle on a national level

Wibbs

Deleted User wrote: »

If true, this is an outstanding result for the country

It is, though given our population density not unexpected from early on. It was fairly obvious how that would give us more protection. The predictions of tens of thousands Irish dead from this were sky is falling down hysterics. A case of panic merchants/people in love with graphs/not taking into account the wider local picture/quasi political reasons[delete as applicable].

Though if this is true and I hope/suspect it is, we're not outa the woods yet. What's working now is well, working it seems, now we have to hammer more nails into this bug's coffin. Ride out the next few weeks, while getting masks into public use, while looking at business and industry's individual risk factors and opening the least risky up for trade. Also introduce health temp scans at all ports into the country.

fr336

threeball wrote: »

This sounds so mad it couldnt be true. 66000 deaths predicted in UK by july

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/uk-set-66000-coronavirus-deaths-becoming-worst-hit-europe-12521377/?ico=pushly-notifcation-small&utm_source=pushly

That's based on the current curve. The curve breaks down when the country is under lockdown as how does the virus spread? It can't be infecting people in March and them dying in May, June and July.

wakka12

bennyl10 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-can-expect-400-deaths-by-august-1.4223043


Ireland has passed its peak of Covid-19 infections but can expected more than 400 deaths by August, according to new international modelling data published today.

Based on social distancing measures being held in place until August, important to note..

Pretty grim that deaths in Europe predicted to reach 150,000 even if social distancing measures are held up until almost next Autumn. Wonder what it would have been like if actions like this has not been taken when they were, likely many millions would have died

BLIZZARD7

bennyl10 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-can-expect-400-deaths-by-august-1.4223043


Ireland has passed its peak of Covid-19 infections but can expected more than 400 deaths by August, according to new international modelling data published today.

As much as I want to believe that, with 99+ clusters in Nursing homes currently I find that extremely unlikely on the deaths front unfortunately.

circadian

Bushmaster64 wrote: »

Nikki Haley, former US ambassador to the UN who knows a thing or two about China.

Turns out the Chinese regime are liars, who'd have thought.

Ben Shapiro. Sweet jesus.

fr336

Oh man how I wish my loved ones (well the ones here) and I were in Ireland...you can't be complacent otherwise the worse will happen, but it must be a relief to feel some more control again.

frillyleaf

SuperTortoise wrote: »

It's a computer based prediction, nobody has jumped through a time portal and back again to report their findings...


I will be amazed if those predictions for Ireland turn out to be correct.

I’m just trying to be positive so it’s nice to see some reassuring news! Does that mean when we have our current restrictions in place or can we look forward to them being gradually lifted over the next few weeks if we’ve passed peak deaths ?

threeball

elvis83 wrote: »

Do you think the airline and air industry in general will ever recover? Can't see it ever going back to how it was, even if things settle on a national level

I hope not. Far too much air travel. Its not sustainable in any way.

Not in Kansas

I feel its irresponsible of the Irish Times to print this unless they are full sure of its validity and accuracy as people will seize on any bit of good news that they can.

The bit about restrictions till August should be in the headline as that's all many will see or read.

kilkenny31

elvis83 wrote: »

Do you think the airline and air industry in general will ever recover? Can't see it ever going back to how it was, even if things settle on a national level

No doubt many will recover and I don't support the government stepping in to bail them out. International tourism is dead for the rest of this year.. Depending on if your concerned about climate change or not this will either be a good thing or a bad thing. I think a lot of the world will be changed by this.

Christy42

Well we finally have a prediction that people are willing to not take as absolute fact. Turns out the key is to make not the apocalypse and people will doubt it. If only it predicted 10,000 dead in a week it would have been staunchly defended as guaranteed fact.

On the prediction itself. It seems like a reasonable prediction but comes with the heavy caveat of us continuing social distancing for some time. We have been doing a good job and are on the right curve. However we still have the power to switch to nasty curve if we let up.

The curves shown have a nice single peak because they assume one course of action. At any point we could get a second peak if we are not careful.

quokula

otnomart wrote: »

Many thanks.


Here is the video posted by JK Rowling on the breathing technique that could prevent patients contracting secondary pneumonia

There's no harm in trying this, but just like hydroxychloroquine and other supposed cures it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

The large majority of people who get this disease survive, even amongst the elderly. If someone tries a certain breathing technique and survives, there's a pretty good chance that they would have survived anyway.

Mortelaro

Same population, Scotlands deaths from covid 19 are over three times that of the Republic of Ireland

If that doesn't say something for Ireland's together effort,nothing does

Fr_Dougal

bennyl10 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-can-expect-400-deaths-by-august-1.4223043


Ireland has passed its peak of Covid-19 infections but can expected more than 400 deaths by August, according to new international modelling data published today.

Lovely. I’m off to the beach now so.

DevilsHaircut

bennyl10 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-can-expect-400-deaths-by-august-1.4223043


Ireland has passed its peak of Covid-19 infections but can expected more than 400 deaths by August, according to new international modelling data published today.

Source is https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland

Depends on all current measures being maintained, and seems to project 0 deaths from 5 May.

fr336

wakka12 wrote: »

Based on social distancing measures being held in place until August, important to note..

Pretty grim that deaths in Europe predicted to reach 150,000 even if social distancing measures are held up until almost next Autumn. Wonder what it would have been like if actions like this has not been taken when they were, likely many millions would have died

I don't understand how people would still be infected in such numbers with lockdowns in place? Essential workplaces, supermarkets etc? If so time for supermarkets and the like to close to the public and operate as click and collects with people picking up groceries. Supermarkets full of people still makes a mockery of shutting down the rest of the country.

Not in Kansas

quokula wrote: »

There's no harm in trying this, but just like hydroxychloroquine and other supposed cures it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

The large majority of people who get this disease survive, even amongst the elderly. If someone tries a certain breathing technique and survives, there's a pretty good chance that they would have survived anyway.

It doesn't say it's a cure! It's a technique that can help you to deal with it.

threeball

fr336 wrote: »

That's based on the current curve. The curve breaks down when the country is under lockdown as how does the virus spread? It can't be infecting people in March and them dying in May, June and July.

Useless info so. Thats like saying there'd be 250000 deaths if they had a national mud wrestling competition in the morning. The measures have changed. I think they'll end up around 12 to 15k and we'll end up with 500.

frillyleaf

Not in Kansas wrote: »

I feel its irresponsible of the Irish Times to print this unless they are full sure of its validity and accuracy as people will seize on any bit of good news that they can.

The bit about restrictions till August should be in the headline as that's all many will see or read.

I can’t see that as I haven’t got paid Irish Times. So is this prediction based on current restrictions?

hmmm

These projections for the UK are terrifying - https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
Ireland by comparison - https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland
Italy - https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

SeaBreezes

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Friends mum was called back to be a nurse after 25 or so years, tested positive today after about 2/3 weeks of being back. Not around covid patients much either, just occassionaly. Must be rampant in the hospitals (this is CUH).

Ah god I'm sorry. Must be a worry for your friend.

threeball

Mortelaro wrote: »

Same population, Scotlands deaths from covid 19 are over three times that of the Republic of Ireland

If that doesn't say something for Ireland's together effort,nothing does

Some here would like to have you believe we were in free fall. The government action and the response of the people in general must be applauded if this holds true.

wakka12

fr336 wrote: »

I don't understand how people would still be infected in such numbers with lockdowns in place? Essential workplaces, supermarkets etc? If so time for supermarkets and the like to close to the public and operate as click and collects with people picking up groceries. Supermarkets full of people still makes a mockery of shutting down the rest of the country.

I've wondered about this too Id say its mostly just the odd case of somebody picking it up at a supermarket or some 'low risk' place from time to time and most of the new infectiosn will then come from that person going home and infecting 3-5 other family members

Mango Joe

Can I just raise as a topic... I find it very aggravating that public health advice both here and internationally is so obtuse, ambivalent and rudderless on the topic of wearing masks.

So the virus is absolutely and categorically present in airborne droplets from ones mouth and/or nose, coughing, close contact breathing or sneezing etc.

Yet we've all these public figures from Healthcare and Government both waffling on about whether or not they think it could possibly help to wear a mask for weeks now - Citing studies and pointing vaguely at paragraphs in textbooks.

Surely its going to help to a very large degree? I cannot understand the reluctance to just advise people to wear masks if they can?

What are your thoughts please?

I can only think of 2 caveats here:

1. An introduction of complacency among mask-wearers, where they suddenly assume they're invincible and don't maintain the social distancing that would still be required.

2. Shortages of masks is obviously a concern - Perhaps they don't want to recommend a measure that is unobtainable - But this should be very easily remedied.