CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Wibbs

wakka12 wrote: »

Wonder what it would have been like if actions like this has not been taken when they were, likely many millions would have died

I'll lay bets now, though I've said it before, I reckon when all is done and dusted this virus's final case fatality rate across the population will hover around 0.5-0.8%. Way higher than a bad seasonal flu, but not nearly as high as 10% and the like as many merchants of doom are predicting.

That said it's how those fatalities happen is what is and will continue to hurt, because they're coming in thick and fast, from already weakened and older people rather than being spread out over time and overwhelm the health services of nations and cause secondary unrelated deaths as well. The CFR as a naked number doesn't account for that. Hence the flattening of the curve as a vital weapon against it.

youreadthat

Mortelaro wrote: »

Same population, Scotlands deaths from covid 19 are over three times that of the Republic of Ireland

If that doesn't say something for Ireland's together effort,nothing does

How can you compare? Different geography, population spread, and only one is on an island of 65 million people..

bennyineire

hmmm wrote: »

These projections for the UK are terrifying - https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
Ireland by comparison - https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland
Italy - https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

Yep according to that model Ireland and Portugal have already hit the peak, UK is 9 days away form peak and Spain and Italy have turned the corner.

So if true then Ireland and Portugal are 2 countries with mandatory BCG vaccinations but their neighbouring bigger neighbours did not (U.K. and Spain).

Again if model plays out then great news for Ireland but very bad news for the U.K., they are projected to have 1/3rd of ALL deaths in Europe in a matter of months

Rvsmmnps

Christy42 wrote: »

Well we finally have a prediction that people are willing to not take as absolute fact. Turns out the key is to make not the apocalypse and people will doubt it. If only it predicted 10,000 dead in a week it would have been staunchly defended as guaranteed fact.

On the prediction itself. It seems like a reasonable prediction but comes with the heavy caveat of us continuing social distancing for some time. We have been doing a good job and are on the right curve. However we still have the power to switch to nasty curve if we let up.

The curves shown have a nice single peak because they assume one course of action. At any point we could get a second peak if we are not careful.

How on earth are you certain of a nasty curve? Nobody has a clue about this as testing has been done on but a handful of people

Wibbs

Mango Joe wrote: »

Can I just raise as a topic... I find it very aggravating that public health advice both here and internationally is so obtuse, ambivalent and rudderless on the topic of wearing masks.

So the virus is absolutely and categorically present in airborne droplets from ones mouth and/or nose, coughing, close contact breathing or sneezing etc.

Yet we've all these public figures from Healthcare and Government both waffling on about whether or not they think it could possibly help to wear a mask.

Surely its going to help to a very large degree? I cannot understand the reluctance to just advise people to wear masks if they can?

Shortages of masks for health care workers is the vast majority of it. Followed in Ireland by a slavish adherence to what the WHO say, followed by an incompetence of local "experts", followed by a reluctance to backtrack now and admit it was about shortages not efficacy in a community setting.

Stheno

I didn't see anywhere in the irish Times article where it said the projections were based on all social distancing measures being maintained until August?

Have I missed something?

facehugger99

Ghost Dog 4 wrote: »

I have 2 weeks booked in Lanzarote that I expect will be happening.

As long as it's June or later, you will be fine.

Tourism is a massive part of the economy for the Canaries and the Sth. of Spain and there will be a big push to get the season back up and running quickly.

I think in Ireland we can expect a partial relaxation of restriction on Sunday. My previous estimates on this may have been over-pessimistic.

kilkenny31

fr336 wrote: »

I don't understand how people would still be infected in such numbers with lockdowns in place? Essential workplaces, supermarkets etc? If so time for supermarkets and the like to close to the public and operate as click and collects with people picking up groceries. Supermarkets full of people still makes a mockery of shutting down the rest of the country.

I've said it many times. The main issue here is large densely populated urban areas. That is why Ireland has been doing OK out of this and Spain and Italy are doing terribly. If you think about it living in an apartment block is a lot like living together or being on a large cruise ship when it comes to an airborne virus. You use the same front door, stairway, elevator etc. There was also the case with SARS early on where somebody with the virus used the toilet and flushed it. Some of the liquid made its way into the ventilation shaft and the virus spread through the entire apartment block. We for the most part don't live like that so don't have the same issues. But that is probably why places like Italy struggled to get it under control even with a "Lock-down" of sorts.

Discodog

rm212 wrote: »

“ Finland’s government has extended and tightened border controls restricting travel to and from the country until 13 May in order to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Finland had recorded 2,176 confirmed Covid-19 cases and 27 deaths by Tuesday“ (The Guardian)

I hope we can stay proactive like Finland. I think Austria and Denmark are loosening too early and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a wave 2 begin there. Finland are way, way lower than us in deaths but you see them tightening restrictions and extending them further. I’m glad they have more concern for lives than money.

I am talking with a friend from Finland right now. They haven't imposed severe restrictions. Some schools & daycares remain open. There is no restrictions on local travel. She's just back from a 10km walk.

DevilsHaircut

Stheno wrote: »

I didn't see anywhere in the irish Times article where it said the projections were based on all social distancing measures being maintained until August?

Have I missed something?

Source https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland

fr336

Wibbs wrote: »

I'll lay bets now, though I've said it before, I reckon when all is done and dusted this virus's final case fatality rate across the population will hover around 0.5-0.8%. Way higher than a bad seasonal flu, but not nearly as high as 10% and the like as many merchants of doom are predicting.

it.

I know of 4 people with some kind of bug at the moment, sounds milder than covid but I don't remember so many people getting ill in March or April even older people. There is usually an exception to norm but you never usually here about "something going around" this late on. I'm comforting myself by thinking it is covid and even in vunberable people you can get a mild dose and that is far more prevalent than we think.

the.red.baron

Wibbs wrote: »

I'll lay bets now, though I've said it before, I reckon when all is done and dusted this virus's final case fatality rate across the population will hover around 0.5-0.8%. Way higher than a bad seasonal flu, but not nearly as high as 10% and the like as many merchants of doom are predicting.

That said it's how those fatalities happen is what is and will continue to hurt, because they're coming in thick and fast, from already weakened and older people rather than being spread out over time and overwhelm the health services of nations and cause secondary unrelated deaths as well. The CFR as a naked number doesn't account for that. Hence the flattening of the curve as a vital weapon against it.

who was saying it would be 10%, i saw predictions of 1-3% with that being the high end, many predicted 10 times worse than flu at around the 1% mark



this was worse case scenario

kingshankly

Scotland with 74 deaths in 24 hours Christ that is high

Tony EH

Wibbs wrote: »

If I had a magic wand, or access to a top level genetics bioweapon lab, I'd rejig this virus to target the stupid.

That would end up killing more people than the WWI, WWII and the Spanish flu put together.

Fr Tod Umptious

facehugger99 wrote: »

As long as it's June or later, you will be fine.

Tourism is a massive part of the economy for the Canaries and the Sth. of Spain and there will be a big push to get the season back up and running quickly.

I think in Ireland we can expect a partial relaxation of restriction on Sunday. My previous estimates on this may have been over-pessimistic.

If the numbers look good by Sunday I think the current restrictions will remain in place for another two weeks.

Just to make sure that the trend is downwards, and if it is after that two weeks then we will go back to the March 12th to March 29th restrictions for at least a month just to make sure they are working.

Once the assumed peak is reached we have to move very slowly back down.

Mango Joe

Wibbs wrote: »

Shortages of masks for health care workers is the vast majority of it. Followed in Ireland by a slavish adherence to what the WHO say, followed by an incompetence of local "experts", followed by a reluctance to backtrack now and admit it was about shortages not efficacy in a community setting.

Great answer - thanks Wibbs.

Well I think its dangerous to go and address the public and tell them masks are most likely to be of negligible value for ones own strategic and political reasons when these same people are in many cases, for example, visiting elderly relatives to care for them.

gabeeg

facehugger99 wrote: »

As long as it's June or later, you will be fine.

Tourism is a massive part of the economy for the Canaries and the Sth. of Spain and there will be a big push to get the season back up and running quickly.

I think in Ireland we can expect a partial relaxation of restriction on Sunday. My previous estimates on this may have been over-pessimistic.

This is wildly optimistic.

Based on absolutely nothing.

Tandey

Mortelaro wrote: »

Same population, Scotlands deaths from covid 19 are over three times that of the Republic of Ireland

If that doesn't say something for Ireland's together effort,nothing does

Are they an island?

greenfield21

hmmm wrote: »

These projections for the UK are terrifying - https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
Ireland by comparison - https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland
Italy - https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

That model is terrible I don't know why people still reference it, it's been way off on all projections for the US.

the.red.baron

Wibbs wrote: »

Shortages of masks for health care workers is the vast majority of it. Followed in Ireland by a slavish adherence to what the WHO say, followed by an incompetence of local "experts", followed by a reluctance to backtrack now and admit it was about shortages not efficacy in a community setting.

the local experts are doing a much better job than internet experts think they are



given the results

rm212

Discodog wrote: »

I am talking with a friend from Finland right now. They haven't imposed severe restrictions. Some schools & daycares remain open. There is no restrictions on local travel. She's just back from a 10km walk.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finland_extends_coronavirus_emergency_measures_to_mid-may/11283446

The measures are detailed here. Very close to ours in similarity, just they have the extra foreign entry restrictions which I like. This is what I mean by tight restrictions. I actually think the 2km limit is unnecessary as long as people keep social distancing in mind when going for exercise. They are being careful and going until 31 May, even though their deaths are among the lowest in Europe.

Hobgoblin11

bennyineire wrote: »

Yep according to that model Ireland and Portugal have already hit the peak, UK is 9 days away form peak and Spain and Italy have turned the corner.

So if true then Ireland and Portugal are 2 countries with mandatory BCG vaccinations but their neighbouring bigger neighbours did not (U.K. and Spain).

Again if model plays out then great news for Ireland but very bad news for the U.K., they are projected to have 1/3rd of ALL deaths in Europe in a matter of months

they were very lax! They pushed Cheltenham through like

fr336

After all this hell there's talk of lifting lockdown after a week or two? No. Be grateful and keep it in place for another month. The human and economic costs will be far lower in the medium to long term. We can't go back to short termism.

ifElseThen

Rudimentary look at rip.ie using incremental id

01 Apr - 30 Apr 2017 - 2518 deaths
01 Apr - 30 Apr 2018 - 2740 deaths
01 Apr - 30 Apr 2019 - 2636 deaths
01 Apr - 07 Apr 2020 - 767 deaths

Using that daily average for Apr 2020, we'd see around 3287 deaths so an approx 20 - 30% increase in deaths compared to last few years.

7 out of 46 residents in my old man's nursing home have died in the last month, 6 in the last 11 days.

threeball

kingshankly wrote: »

Scotland with 74 deaths in 24 hours Christ that is high

They undereported the weekend deaths due to new recording proceedures.

Assetbacked

Not in Kansas wrote: »

I feel its irresponsible of the Irish Times to print this unless they are full sure of its validity and accuracy as people will seize on any bit of good news that they can.

The bit about restrictions till August should be in the headline as that's all many will see or read.

Don't be so negative, putting down the possibility for people to celebrate some good news. It is from about now onwards that the measures we have implemented will start to show in the data. To date, reported cases and deaths came from transmission prior to Paddy's Day. It's only a temporary act to implement the stringent measures we have had to live with the past week and a bit.

hmmm

rm212 wrote: »

I actually think the 2km limit is unnecessary as long as people keep social distancing in mind when going for exercise.

It helps with contact tracing. I wonder also whether our public health people are thinking of potential geographic restrictions as a possible exit route - e.g. if there is a cluster in a particular area, close schools & restaurants in that particular area.

ek motor

hmmm wrote: »

These projections for the UK are terrifying - https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
Ireland by comparison - https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland
Italy - https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

The projections for Italy seem way off, officially they've seen 16,523 deaths so far.

Surely they'll pass 20,000 deaths within the next week or so.

bennyl10

That model is very assuring for what we’re doing here

Social distancing isn’t lockdown

Social distancing is very doable. We just need to keep distance

kilkenny31

the.red.baron wrote: »

the local experts are doing a much better job than internet experts think they are



given the results

Never a truer word spoken. We were doing a great job from March 12th but the facebook police and people on there that peak through the blinds trying to find fault with their neighbors weren't happy. Even now they are not happy, they see too many people out for a walk and they say that restrictions will have to get tighter and ignore any piece of evidence that suggests that things are working.