CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

wakka12

Stheno wrote: »

I didn't see anywhere in the irish Times article where it said the projections were based on all social distancing measures being maintained until August?

Have I missed something?

Yes you missed it

The research looks at the predicted spread and impact of coronavirus in 29 European countries and assumes social distancing measures will remain in place until August.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-s-infection-peak-may-have-passed-toll-could-hit-400-by-august-report-forecasts-1.4223043

facehugger99

fr336 wrote: »

After all this hell there's talk of lifting lockdown after a week or two? No. Be grateful and keep it in place for another month. The human and economic costs will be far lower in the medium to long term. We can't go back to short termism.

Nothing good on Netflix?

bmcc10

frillyleaf wrote: »

Very different culture to us. They will all have to wear masks and are very hygienic. For example in Japan it’s bad manners to wear shoes into someone’s house. They also would have better hand hygiene and social distancing due to SARS. I suspect the issues of accessibility to masks for everyone is not an issue. Healthcare staff would likely be already trained how to use PPE properly with more access to it than we have. They likely won’t have waited as long as us to order these.

I feel masks massively reduces the spread of this and is likely as important as washing hands

Living here and that is not one bit accurate.

wakka12

ek motor wrote: »

The projections for Italy seem way off, officially they've seen 16,523 deaths so far.

Surely they'll pass 20,000 deaths within the next week or so.

Yeh I'm a little wary of these models seeing as it is estimated that deaths in for example Italy are underrepresented by a factor of 4, because of nursing home and home deaths. How would this affect the moels then? Italy apparently already has far more deaths than is being predicted by August

rm212

hmmm wrote: »

It helps with contact tracing. I wonder also whether our public health people are thinking of potential geographic restrictions as a possible exit route - e.g. if there is a cluster in a particular area, close schools & restaurants in that particular area.

That’s a good point, but I think perhaps there should be no limit once it’s solitary physical exercise and you are asked to make no stops to engage with someone unless it’s 2m away?

bmcc10

frillyleaf wrote: »

Very different culture to us. They will all have to wear masks and are very hygienic. For example in Japan it’s bad manners to wear shoes into someone’s house. They also would have better hand hygiene and social distancing due to SARS. I suspect the issues of accessibility to masks for everyone is not an issue. Healthcare staff would likely be already trained how to use PPE properly with more access to it than we have. They likely won’t have waited as long as us to order these.

I feel masks massively reduces the spread of this and is likely as important as washing hands

Living here and that is not one bit accurate.

the.red.baron

fr336 wrote: »

After all this hell there's talk of lifting lockdown after a week or two? No. Be grateful and keep it in place for another month. The human and economic costs will be far lower in the medium to long term. We can't go back to short termism.

that fook Facehugger wont be setting any policy :pac:

Wibbs

the.red.baron wrote: »

the local experts are doing a much better job than internet experts think they are



given the results

Bollocks. They got lucky in many ways, mostly down to our population densities and were handing out daft advice only last month.

Exhibit A.

HSE press conference with HSE expert. Under two minutes long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmKfS2TkrSo

Now forget about what we know now and how unbelievably bad advice this is and consider what we already knew then, at least anybody with a working search engine and two braincells to rub together did. This is an example of our leadership. You could not make it up.

ArchXStanton

BanditLuke wrote: »

She's an absolute hero. People like her and her ilk should have statues built for them when this is said and done. They are literally putting their lives on the line to save others.

I think a poster on another forum summed it up best for me recently when they said the similarities between what they are doing now and what the firefighters did on 9/11 walking into those buildings is laid bare for all to see.

Or the Chernobyl liquidators, I remember seeing an interview with one were they asked him if he was afraid/wanted to refuse, he simply replied in that grim soviet way "someone had to do it"

wakka12

bennyl10 wrote: »

That model is very assuring for what we’re doing here

Social distancing isn’t lockdown

Social distancing is very doable. We just need to keep distance

It means no school, no creches, probably no visiting to elderly or ill still, no socialising or large gathering,no festivals or events, no cafes shopping restaurants bars, normal life will still be very much on hold by August in order to reach the predicted numbers

threeball

I think the restrictions should stay as is for another 2 weeks but after that slowly reverse the measures we have implemented. If we do that we should have dampened it down to next to nothing. Then continue testing and contact tracing.

Strazdas

kingshankly wrote: »

Scotland with 74 deaths in 24 hours Christ that is high

It's looking certain now that the island of Britain has been hit much harder by Covid than our one (both ROI and NI)

kilkenny31

ifElseThen wrote: »

Rudimentary look at rip.ie using incremental id

01 Mar - 30 March 2019 - 2636 deaths
01 Mar - 07 March 2020 - 767 deaths

Using that daily average for Mar 2020, we'd see around 3287 deaths so an approx 25% increase in deaths compared to last year.

7 out of 46 residents in my old man's nursing home have died in the last month, 6 in the last 11 days.

Nice work. It would be interesting to go back a few more years to get a full picture.

the.red.baron

bmcc10 wrote: »

Living here and that is not one bit accurate.

also lived there, they feel pressured to go to work sick in the first place, much better to stay home


being crammed into public transport is great for efficiency but bad for disease


great bunch of lads though

fr336

facehugger99 wrote: »

Nothing good on Netflix?

Only good stuff is made by other people like the BBC. Seen all the decent stuff.

the.red.baron

Wibbs wrote: »

Bollocks. They got lucky in many ways, mostly down to our population densities and were handing out daft advice only last month.

Exhibit A.

HSE press conference with HSE expert. Under two minutes long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmKfS2TkrSo

Now forget about what we know now and how unbelievably bad advice this is and consider what we already knew then, at least anybody with a working search engine and two braincells to rub together did. This is an example of our leadership. You could not make it up.

sure we'd have been grand so with no restrictions needed the country fields would have isolated us


who needs a mask with all the feckin fresh air

Strazdas

threeball wrote: »

I think the restrictions should stay as is for another 2 weeks but after that slowly reverse the measures we have implemented. If we do that we should have dampened it down to next to nothing. Then continue testing and contact tracing.

The fact that Denmark and Austria are already planning this is very helpful. They will be a couple of weeks ahead of us and we will be able to watch what is happening there very closely i.e. how well this is working.

Funsterdelux

Wibbs wrote: »

Bollocks. They got lucky in many ways, mostly down to our population densities and were handing out daft advice only last month.

Exhibit A.

HSE press conference with HSE expert. Under two minutes long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmKfS2TkrSo

Now forget about what we know now and how unbelievably bad advice this is and consider what we already knew then, at least anybody with a working search engine and two braincells to rub together did. This is an example of our leadership. You could not make it up.

The chance is low, probably... a lot of unsure terminology there, so much for erring on the side of caution

gabeeg

Wibbs wrote: »

Bollocks. They got lucky in many ways, mostly down to our population densities and were handing out daft advice only last month.

Exhibit A.

HSE press conference with HSE expert. Under two minutes long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmKfS2TkrSo

Now forget about what we know now and how unbelievably bad advice this is and consider what we already knew then, at least anybody with a working search engine and two braincells to rub together did. This is an example of our leadership. You could not make it up.

I think they were basing everything on what they knew about the flu.

It's like it took them completely by surprise. Asleep at the wheel.

Wibbs

Wibbs wrote: »

It is, though given our population density not unexpected from early on. It was fairly obvious how that would give us more protection. The predictions of tens of thousands Irish dead from this were sky is falling down hysterics. A case of panic merchants/people in love with graphs/not taking into account the wider local picture/quasi political reasons[delete as applicable].

Though if this is true and I hope/suspect it is, we're not outa the woods yet. What's working now is well, working it seems, now we have to hammer more nails into this bug's coffin. Ride out the next few weeks, while getting masks into public use, while looking at business and industry's individual risk factors and opening the least risky up for trade. Also introduce health temp scans at all ports into the country.

Uncontrolled 10's of thousands was conceivable. We wont end with 400 either as current restrictions wont fly as cases and deaths drop to low numbers. Will see undulating peaks and troughs for 12 months with probably 3-4 thousand deaths in that time. We must remember that a not insignificant proportion of those would be very old and vulnerable people who would likely have died of the next respiratory infection they got anyway.

frillyleaf

Mango Joe wrote: »

Can I just raise as a topic... I find it very aggravating that public health advice both here and internationally is so obtuse, ambivalent and rudderless on the topic of wearing masks.

So the virus is absolutely and categorically present in airborne droplets from ones mouth and/or nose, coughing, close contact breathing or sneezing etc.

Yet we've all these public figures from Healthcare and Government both waffling on about whether or not they think it could possibly help to wear a mask for weeks now - Citing studies and pointing vaguely at paragraphs in textbooks.

Surely its going to help to a very large degree? I cannot understand the reluctance to just advise people to wear masks if they can?

What are your thoughts please?

I can only think of 2 caveats here:

1. An introduction of complacency among mask-wearers, where they suddenly assume they're invincible and don't maintain the social distancing that would still be required.

2. Shortages of masks is obviously a concern - Perhaps they don't want to recommend a measure that is unobtainable - But this should be very easily remedied.

Both . A family member of mine is calling to a vulnerable family member out of boredom and thinks it’s ok because he’s wearing a mask. Very selfish

cameramonkey

petes wrote: »

You won't believe any of the numbers anyway :pac:

Well what are the numbers? No one knows, the HSE are trowing out fantasy numbers about how many tests they hope to do and then totally under preforming. They need to be realistic and then people might believe them, at the moment even their most fervent supporter cant say or wont say how many they are testing.

is_that_so

Wibbs wrote: »

Bollocks. They got lucky in many ways, mostly down to our population densities and were handing out daft advice only last month.

Exhibit A.

HSE press conference with HSE expert. Under two minutes long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmKfS2TkrSo

Now forget about what we know now and how unbelievably bad advice this is and consider what we already knew then, at least anybody with a working search engine and two braincells to rub together did. This is an example of our leadership. You could not make it up.

The biggest mystery of all of this is why they haven't called on you to rescue them from their failings!

jill_valentine

If the BCG does turn out to have had an effect, what are the chances of bringing back a full scale vaccination program in this day and age? Seems like we could have a great deal to be grateful to it for, but the Facebook brigade would go mental.

Funsterdelux

Gardaí stopped a car in Fermoy this morning, which had travelled from Meath 'for the spin and to visit.'

Anyone fancy a spin?

wakka12

**** hitting the fan in Sweden, deaths increasing massively every day there, 115 deaths there this afternoon

75 deaths yesterday
50 deaths the day before

Netherlands has also reported it's highest number of deaths today at 235.
The Benelux region has had almost 650 deaths today

darem93

kingshankly wrote: »

Scotland with 74 deaths in 24 hours Christ that is high

I think there must be something off with their reporting. Didn't they have only 2 deaths one of the days over the weekend? I knew there was something very off with that when even NI had a much larger number the same day. This high figure today must be a backlog or a delay in reporting.

petes

cameramonkey wrote: »

Well what are the numbers? No one knows, the HSE are trowing out fantasy numbers about how many tests they hope to do and then totally under preforming. They need to be realistic and then people might believe them, at the moment even their most fervent supporter cant say or wont say how many they are testing.

You wouldn't believe them if you counted them yourself.

is_that_so

gabeeg wrote: »

I think they were basing everything on what they knew about the flu.

It's like it took them completely by surprise. Asleep at the wheel.

That applies to almost every country in the world with few exceptions. Once we get to eased restrictions those flu' season management skills will come in very handy.

Tacitus Kilgore

Ghost Dog 4 wrote: »

Sits fine with me as I hope to go on holidays abroad in August.

Wonder will the airline you are booked with still exist in August?