CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Inquitus

Beasty wrote: »

You missed out the millennium bug....



:pac:

Given your age, are you referring to the 1900 or 2000 millennium? :pac:

Beasty

is_that_so wrote: »

From RTE feed

Formerly active in the SS I believe...


(Super Spreaders)

Beasty

Inquitus wrote: »

Given your age, are you referring to the 1900 or 2000 millennium? :pac:

Last time i checked they were 1,000 years apart:P

NDWC

NDWC wrote: »

Source?

Havnt exact date,but it is an ongoing issue,hence why you still TB outbreaks there


Mad to think,the differences in regions before hse (i have relatives on cork/waterford border,who registered under SE health board for this and few other reasons)

https://conoroneill.com/2007/04/30/my-proposed-questions-to-the-hse-under-freedom-of-information/


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/doctor-warns-that-vaccination-may-make-tb-detection-harder-1.284243?mode=amp

Wombatman

Anyone got numbers for Covid related ICU admissions?

Are the actual numbers falling or just the growth rate?

jill_valentine

jill_valentine wrote: »

I randomly developed severe abdominal pains last night, like I've never felt before. Today some gastro stuff and I feel nauseous and fatigued. Called in sick to work, but I'm really unsure what to do about self isolating (I'm in a shared house). I've read these are common first symptoms in mild cases, but I can't tell if I've Dr. Googled myself.

Jesus,ring the helpline

Drumpot

Somebody mentioned RIP.ie earlier. Somebody also mentioned in Italy the deaths in Lombardy in march dont match up with deaths in that same region last year, if you include Covid deaths.

The implication appears to be that alot of Covid related deaths are not being reported. Does anybody have any information on this or an explanation for same ?

I think in the Italy example it was suggested up to 25000 deaths in Lombardy region were unnacounted for in March this year versus March last year.

walshb

854 deaths in UK last 24 hours?

DevilsHaircut

'One dose of [convalescent plasma] with a high concentration of neutralizing antibodies can rapidly reduce the viral load and tends to improve clinical outcomes'

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/02/2004168117

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/plasma-from-coronavirus-survivors-found-to-help-severely-ill-patients

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Wibbs wrote: »

Well O me as a layperson here's a post I made on the 8th of February. When the question was raised about asymptomatic spread.



So me as a completely unqualified layperson as you very much rightly and correctly point out O was right, yet the HSE was effectively saying the opposite a full month later, which was wrong. No spark of genius on my part either. I can read and that was public knowledge at that stage. The British doctor chap who's popular on youtube who has been following this from very early on was saying it well before I was.

And I wasn't too far off the mark re the government and HSE either.

You dismissed a study that listed a litany of symptoms. That's fine. But literally any journal article and study published as of today on this topic is a rush job. The timescale ensures that. I saw one with the patient name still visible on an included CT scan. My friend who is a virologist told me about a paper from China with a very egregious error. So again, my question is why would you dismiss the UK study done but not other scientific papers published on the subject when every last one of them should be viewed with caution? Why pick and choose?

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

Nope, just seems to be a correlation, but a lot more research needed.

There doesn't appear to be any correlation. The Irish Times article refers to Ireland still having a BCG program when we don't!

As for other countries with on going programs, they are doing well because they have far more advanced approaches to infectious diseases than us in the west.

Many Asian countries have significant experience when it comes to diseases like Sars and they have plans ready to go as soon as a similar disease is identified.

In Europe we had no plans, nothing, zilch. We had to start from scratch.

Its dangerous for scientists to write off the benefit of lockdowns in favour of unproven correlations with BCG vaccines.

Wolf359f

Wombatman wrote: »

Anyone got numbers for Covid related ICU admissions?

Are the actual numbers falling or just the growth rate?

The actual numbers currently in ICU aren't released daily, but the % of people requiring ICU are dropping daily:
1/4: 10.45%
2/4: 6.76%
3/4: 4.43%
4/4: 2.42%

Both ICU and hospitalization % are a much lower % than the daily case number increase %.
So it's a welcomed trend.

Amirani

Wombatman wrote: »

Anyone got numbers for Covid related ICU admissions?

Are the actual numbers falling or just the growth rate?

Very slight falls, but mainly quite steady.

bekker

Christy42 wrote: »

Where did the bcg stuff come from? More snake oil?

Suggest you do a bit of researching for yourself before the facetious comment.

Wombatman

Amirani wrote: »

Very slight falls, but mainly quite steady.

Very positive sign. Let's hope this trend continues.

A week longer in lock down, as a precaution, would be so much better than coming out a week early and ruining all we seem to have achieved.

Wibbs

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

You dismissed a study that listed a litany of symptoms. That's fine. But literally any journal article published on this topic is a rush job. The timescale ensures that. I saw one with the patient name still visible on an included CT scan. My friend who is a virologist told me about a paper from China with a very egregious error. So again, my question is why would you dismiss the UK study done but not other scientific papers published on the subject when every last one of them should be viewed with caution?

I don't dismiss the UK study into symptoms. Save for the omission of the smell/taste loss which has come along since it came out. As you say this is a hectic time for research and things change very quickly. And that's fine

My point, and it still stands, is that a full month before the HSE advice it was widely known, even by gobsh1tes on the interwebs laymen like myself, that asymptomatic spread was a thing with the spread of this virus and a very real risk, yet a month later this is being stated as a very low risk and even if you shared a house with a known covid contact individual you should live your life as normal unless they're symptomatic with runny noses.

EDIT and never mind that contact tracing and quarantining of asymptomatic contacts was already in place in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea at that stage, precisely because they knew it was a risk.

marilynrr

Drumpot wrote: »

Somebody mentioned RIP.ie earlier. Somebody also mentioned in Italy the deaths in Lombardy in march dont match up with deaths in that same region last year, if you include Covid deaths.

The implication appears to be that alot of Covid related deaths are not being reported. Does anybody have any information on this or an explanation for same ?

I think in the Italy example it was suggested up to 25000 deaths in Lombardy region were unnacounted for in March this year versus March last year.

I read that In Italy that the last flu season was milder than most because of warmer weather and that it killed fewer elderly people than average years.

It sounds awful to put it this way because it's human life we're talking about but the article says "Those with chronic diseases who were spared death from November through January would have been at greater risk when the new virus began spreading in February and March".....and that "It’s possible that the lower mortality earlier in the winter “led to an increase in the pool of the most vulnerable” who were then exposed to Covid-19,".

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/italy-s-mild-flu-season-may-solve-mystery-of-coronavirus-deaths

So when this is all over I suppose there will be a lot to compare, and not just the month on month comparisons, but also the yearly comparison, and perhaps a 12 month period going back from last November. Many might have died during this outbreak that could have died later in the year from something else, so March figures are not really going to tell us a whole lot right now.

I would imagine that if all deaths where a person died 'with' covid-19 were reported as being covid-19 deaths then that would skew the real figure of deaths related to other illnesses when this is all studied and examined when it's over, so reporting all deaths as covid-19 because they had the virus isn't necessarily the right thing to do either.

Rob A. Bank

For those feeling a bit down about the current pandemic....

Humans survived all these nasties.



The Covid-19 numbers have grown since this graphic was made, but I hope it helps to put it in perspective.

bekker

Pretzill wrote: »

I actually thought the opposite, the BCG programme didn't kick in here until 1953 so I was assuming most people over 75 wouldn't have had it. If anything it might show some agent within that vaccine is key, I'll take any positive news at this stage

Started in 1949 by Dr Price, incorporated into a state program later.

Bobtheman

Im totally confused. We are seeing a surge in Nursing home cases-despite them being locked down as well? Thus are we beyond a surge?
Or Not
Plus how long more will this lock down go on for??

New Home

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

For those feeling a bit down about the current pandemic....

Humans survived all these nasties.

https://darylcagle.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2020/03/Pandemic750.jpg

The Covid-19 numbers have grown since this graphic was made, but I hope it helps to put it in perspective.

None of those had ICUs and modern hospitals, machines and techniques, though.

normanoffside

Wombatman wrote: »

A week longer in lock down, as a precaution, would be so much better than coming out a week early and ruining all we seem to have achieved.

Coming out of it won't meaning going back to the way it was in January.
We will go back to the restrictions we had for the 10-14 days before 'lock-down'.

We are seeing the results of those initial restrictions now (2-3 weeks later), not those of the 'lockdown' which started just over a week ago.

Going back to the initial restrictions seems sensible because we are seeing the positive results of that today.

Bobtheman

normanoffside wrote: »

Coming out of it won't meaning going back to the way it was in January.
We will go back to the restrictions we had for the 10-14 days before 'lock-down'.

We are seeing the results of those initial restrictions now (2 weeks later), not those of the 'lockdown' which started just over a wee ago.

Going back to the initial restrictions seems sensible because we are seeing the positive results of that today.

You seem to know what you are talking about.
So how long more will work/school restictions go on for???

Interesting piece in the Irish Times. The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US is saying Ireland’s peak may have been on 4th April. Predicts 400 deaths by August.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-s-infection-peak-may-have-passed-toll-could-hit-400-by-august-report-forecasts-1.4223043?mode=amp

jobeenfitz

Arghus wrote: »

If you want a blast from the past I recommend going back and having a read through the first Coronavirus mega-thread.

It's hillarious and also depressing watching most of our blase attitudes. Just goes to show that the majority of people posting on here - myself included - don't really have a clue what we are spouting on about.

Maybe the early threads could be used educationally to show how stupid (some/most of) us humans can be?

Gynoid

Arghus wrote: »

If you want a blast from the past I recommend going back and having a read through the first Coronavirus mega-thread.

It's hillarious and also depressing watching most of our blase attitudes. Just goes to show that the majority of people posting on here - myself included - don't really have a clue what we are spouting on about.

In my first post on Corona Virus I said it was a horrible illness for sure - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112619599&postcount=8545

Now I ain't suggesting anything but....



My second post was to call some of ye gobshytes for being so mean to Grace. For which I got a yellow card warning.

Stayed away then for a while and came back to give valuable instruction on how to clean yourselves in the absence of bog roll with a jug of water, Indian style, and air dry yer arses.

I have done some public service and regret nothing. :pac:

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Wibbs wrote: »

I don't dismiss the UK study into symptoms. Save for the omission of the smell/taste loss which has come along since it came out. As you say this is a hectic time for research and things change very quickly. And that's fine

My point, and it still stands, is that a full month before the HSE advice it was widely known, even by gobsh1tes on the interwebs laymen like myself, that asymptomatic spread was a thing with the spread of this virus and a very real risk, yet a month later this is being stated as a very low risk and even if you shared a house with a known covid contact individual you should live your life as normal unless they're symptomatic with runny noses.

EDIT and never mind that contact tracing and quarantining of asymptomatic contacts was already in place in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea at that stage, precisely because they knew it was a risk.

But here is my point. In early February for sure, the data would have been pretty patchy. Even by early March. We were and likely still are in an 'correlation does not imply causation' phase. So the idea that asymptomatic spread was possible was probably only coalescing as a notion. Is it even confirmed as of today since we know that quality research takes a long time? Should health bodies advise based on hunches or what they know for sure? That has to be weighed up on a disease-by-disease basis. Acting on a hunch is risky when you consider the effect this has had on society. The restrictions are necessary but there will be indirect casualties of them. An impossible position for the HSE to be in and very easy to criticise when your head won't roll.

Bobtheman

jobeenfitz wrote: »

Maybe the early threads could be used educationally to show how stupid (some/most of) us humans can be?

I dont need a thread to tell me that. I do say to kids Im not a total idiot-parts missing. Lets just accept that none of us are experts. Even the Experts dont have all the answers-its new territory

Bobtheman

How long will the lockdown last????

Wibbs

Wibbs wrote: »

Well O me as a layperson here's a post I made on the 8th of February. When the question was raised about asymptomatic spread.



So me as a completely unqualified layperson as you very much rightly and correctly point out O was right, yet the HSE was effectively saying the opposite a full month later, which was wrong. No spark of genius on my part either. I can read and that was public knowledge at that stage. The British doctor chap who's popular on youtube who has been following this from very early on was saying it well before I was.

And I wasn't too far off the mark re the government and HSE either.

Stopped clock ad all that...plus our reaction has been so much worse that the rest of the western world