CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

is_that_so

Bobtheman wrote: »

How long will the lockdown last????

Quite likely another two weeks and then a slow gradual easing through May would be about the best guess. We can probably expect some restrictions even at the end of June.

iguana

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There doesn't appear to be any correlation. The Irish Times article refers to Ireland still having a BCG program when we don't!

I think considering the fact that we had a BCG programme up to 5 years ago and children of 5 and under are notorious for having such mild symptoms of Covid 19 that they tend to be unnoticeable. That for the intents of a study looking at the correlation between BCG and serious cases of/mortalities from Covid 19, our historic programme counts. That doesn't mean the supposed correlation is indicative of anything meaningful.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

Stopped clock ad all that...plus our reaction has been so much worse that the rest of the western world

Nope.

Bob24

Deleted User wrote: »

Interesting piece in the Irish Times. The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US is saying Ireland’s peak may have been on 4th April. Predicts 400 deaths by August.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-s-infection-peak-may-have-passed-toll-could-hit-400-by-august-report-forecasts-1.4223043?mode=amp

Any model will be based on assumptions, so the raw figures given by the IT without explaining any assumptions are a bit meaningless I think.

Specifically, is the model based on the fact that full confinement measures remain in place? (and if not which ones would be lifted or other ones introduced?)

We *might* have peaked with the assumption that we stay in confinement mode. But at present I don't think we have the capability to lower restrictions without see a large increase again (that would require masks for everyone, more testing, better tracking and isolation of cases, etc).

normanoffside

Bobtheman wrote: »

You seem to know what you are talking about.
So how long more will work/school restictions go on for???

There'll be social distancing restrictions for a long time I'd imagine.
That'll impact work/shopping etc.

I know they are determined to get the leaving certificate done in June as planned- perhaps the primaries will go back for the last few weeks?

Secondary schools will resume next academic year I'd imagine.

Wibbs

jobeenfitz wrote: »

Maybe the early threads could be used educationally to show how stupid (some/most of) us humans can be?

Actually apart from the occasional "t'is only a flu" most people on the first thread were taking the information as it came and were concerned about what it might do when it got into the rest of the world outside China. A few were talking about methods to slow the spread, others didn't trust the Chinese figures, others were talking about how it seemed to be killing manly older people. The first thread was fairly balanced overall.

eddie73

is_that_so wrote: »

Quite likely another two weeks and then a slow gradual easing through May would be about the best guess. We can probably expect some restrictions even at the end of June.

No one knows for sure but this would be a best case.

Indefinite lockdown = economic crash = no money, not even dole

Bobtheman

normanoffside wrote: »

There'll be social distancing restrictions for a long time I'd imagine.
That'll impact work/shopping etc.

I know they are determined to get the leaving certificate done in June as planned- perhaps the primaries will go back for the last few weeks?

Secondary schools will resume next academic year I'd imagine.

I cant see the LC going ahead in June. How exactly? You have a couple of thousand kids involved.

bekker

New Home wrote: »

None of those had ICUs and modern hospitals, machines and techniques, though.

But has far greater impacts on population %.

Approx global population
1AD ~0.2B
500AD ~0.2B
1000AD ~0.3B
1500AD ~0.5B
1900AD ~1.6B
2000AD ~7.5B

With all medical improvements, economic impact COVID-19 will be far greater proportionally, as international trade in previous centuries much smaller component of economies.

youandme13

Just wondering if schools don't open back up until September, when do you think the creches would be opening back up??

Strazdas

jill_valentine wrote: »

I randomly developed severe abdominal pains last night, like I've never felt before. Today some gastro stuff and I feel nauseous and fatigued. Called in sick to work, but I'm really unsure what to do about self isolating (I'm in a shared house). I've read these are common first symptoms in mild cases, but I can't tell if I've Dr. Googled myself.

According to the HSE, fever, a dry cough and shortness of breath are the main symptoms of Covid.

Gastro pain and nausea don't necessarily sound like they would tie in with those. You would probably need to wait and see if they were to appear before suspecting you might have Covid.

caveat emptor

Posting if people unaware. UK government banning "parallel export" of medicines related to COVID 19. If HSE sources any of these drugs via UK wholesales the orders won't be fulfilled. Could be another limiting factor in. ICU capacity down the line.

Given a lot of stuff comes via UK, might be in trouble. Hopefully not the case.

Keen also highlighted export controls the UK government has introduced in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

"In a further attempt to ensure the availability of supplies to battle Covid-19, the UK has announced that more than 80 medicines used to treat patients in intensive care units have been banned from parallel export from the UK," Keen said.

Parallel exporting is when companies buy medicines meant for UK patients and sell on for a higher price in another country. Paracetamol of all strengths and form is included on the UK list.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8134851/UK-bans-parallel-exports-key-drugs-protect-supplies.html
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877739/Medicines_that_cannot_be_parallel_exported_from_the_UK.csv/preview

marilynrr

jobeenfitz wrote: »

Maybe the early threads could be used educationally to show how stupid (some/most of) us humans can be?

I don't think it's stupidity.
It's the way humans are made. We generally prepare based on past experiences and what we know.
Most of us have mental schemas about things like this, I know for me I remembered Sars being a thing and always hearing about it, I remember seeing Chinese people in Ireland wearing masks. That was it.
I remember Swine flu being a biggish deal, but life went on as normal. I was considered at risk at the time but only due to being pregnant, I do recall hand sanitiser being put up in hospitals etc. and don't think it was a thing before that...but really it wasn't that big of a deal and as I said life generally went on as normal.

I think most people unless they were living in Asia or something when SARS was going around or perhaps lost loved ones to Swine flu would have had a very muted reaction to this new virus and would have assumed it wasn't going to be a big deal.

It would actually be more unusual for us as humans to freak out and instantly prepare for chaos in Ireland based on the news about this in China, because we don't have the schema in our brains to associate viruses with chaos.

After covid-19 we will for sure!! because now we've experienced it!

Bob24

Bob24 wrote: »

Any model will be based on assumptions, so the raw figures given by the IT without explaining any assumptions are a bit meaningless I think.

Specifically, is the model based on the fact that full confinement measures remain in place? (and if not which ones would be lifted or other ones introduced?)

We *might* have peaked with the assumption that we stay in confinement mode. But at present I don't think we have the capability to lower restrictions without see a large increase again (that would require masks for everyone, more testing, better tracking and isolation of cases, etc).

The piece mentions that ‘each nation’s trajectory will change dramatically for the worse if people ease up on distancing and other measures are relaxed.’

Doctors room ghost

Inquitus wrote: »

If you add baking soda to plain flour it becomes self raising.

Yeah but I don’t know the difference between baking soda and baking powder and it’s caused problems in the past.

I also don’t know what a tracker mortgage is

iguana

Wibbs wrote: »

Actually apart from the occasional "t'is only a flu" most people on the first thread were taking the information as it came and were concerned about what it might do when it got into the rest of the world outside China. A few were talking about methods to slow the spread, others didn't trust the Chinese figures, others were talking about how it seemed to be killing manly older people. The first thread was fairly balanced overall.

I started reading the first thread as a friend who is a nurse said to me, "I know people think I'm mad but I'm really concerned about what's going to happen with this virus." And, tbh, I did think she was a bit mad but it nagged at me and I opened the thread one night to reassure myself that people worrying were a bit mad and learned very quickly that her worries were actually completely rational. (She works with people in the most vulnerable groups health wise, so it's something that has the potential to be utterly devastating in her particular line of work.)

Alf Veedersane

Bobtheman wrote: »

How long will the lockdown last????

Ten

speckle

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not the case in Castlebar. Lidl, Aldi and Tesco. Maybe supply issues.

loads of eggs down here maybe we could get the army to deliever ye some!.! in return for lemon drizzle cake

hmmm

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

So the idea that asymptomatic spread was possible was probably only coalescing as a notion. Is it even confirmed as of today since we know that quality research takes a long time? Should health bodies advise based on hunches or what they know for sure?

Yep, fully agree. There have been cases of asymptomatic (or pre-symptomatic) spread in the medical literature, but there is little evidence that it is driving infection rates - symptomatic people appear to be the main source.

I wouldn't want any doctor or the HSE making major decisions based on Twitter or news reports - they need to be following WHO/ECDC advice, or advice in reputable journals. Sure that's going to be a bit slower than anecdotal reports, and it's going to appear to be behind social media, but the point is that it is based on facts and not speculation.

speckle

speckle wrote: »

loads of eggs down here maybe we could get the army to deliever ye some!.! in return for lemon drizzle cake

I thought everyone was talking about easter eggs, Life with the wife and kids would be a nightmare if they did not get their chocolate fix

Wibbs

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

But here is my point. In early February for sure, the data would have been pretty patchy. Even by early March. We were and likely still are in an 'correlation does not imply causation' phase. So the idea that asymptomatic spread was possible was probably only coalescing as a notion. Is it even confirmed as of today since we know that quality research takes a long time? Should health bodies advise based on hunches or what they know for sure? That has to be weighed up on a disease-by-disease basis. Acting on a hunch is risky when you consider the effect this has had on society. The restrictions are necessary but there will be indirect casualties of them. An impossible position for the HSE to be in and very easy to criticise when your head won't roll.

It was known from January that very mild or asymptomatic infection was a definite feature with the spread of this illness. This is a fact at this stage. Now if the HSE advice came out in early February I'd be well, to be fair... but by mid Feb there were even more examples and in Europe with it.

The Asian countries who have had experience with SARS and other viral outbreaks saw it as a risk and their health bodies went into action. Now if you are faced with a unknown do you A) make it up as you go along and be grand? Or follow the lead of those who have faced the unknown before and stopped it? You certainly don't come out and state it's a very minor risk many weeks after those qualified people on the ground are saying it's not.

And I'd personally rather have my head roll for doing too much, rather than doing too little. But we're not gonna agree on this point O and that's cool too.

Rvsmmnps

Kindergarten will reopen 20 April and the rest of things will gradually return to normal here in Norway from 27 April.

speckle

the.red.baron wrote: »

What was the flour situation?

think most of our flour imported from uk

bekker

Bob24 wrote: »

Any model will be based on assumptions, so the raw figures given by the IT without explaining any assumptions are a bit meaningless I think.

Specifically, is the model based on the fact that full confinement measures remain in place? (and if not which ones would be lifted or other ones introduced?)

We *might* have peaked with the assumption that we stay in confinement mode. But at present I don't think we have the capability to lower restrictions without see a large increase again (that would require masks for everyone, more testing, better tracking and isolation of cases, etc).

Here is the basis of IT, IE reports.
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

It specifically mentions based on restrictions continuing.

Achasanai

jill_valentine wrote: »

I randomly developed severe abdominal pains last night, like I've never felt before. Today some gastro stuff and I feel nauseous and fatigued. Called in sick to work, but I'm really unsure what to do about self isolating (I'm in a shared house). I've read these are common first symptoms in mild cases, but I can't tell if I've Dr. Googled myself.

Jesus, I never knew there was an abdominal/gastro element to the symptoms (I've heard severe headaches/respiratory issues/extreme fatigue/constant dry cough). I had a fairly severe stomach issue around the 14th of March, but just assumed that it was because of an underlying condition I have. Have had a mild bug on and off since, but none of the above listed symptoms.


Call your GP, though. I had spoken to nurses previously but didn't think to mention my stomach problems as I get them a fair bit, and they weren't as severe as I sometimes get them.

Drumpot

Arghus wrote: »

If you want a blast from the past I recommend going back and having a read through the first Coronavirus mega-thread.

It's hillarious and also depressing watching most of our blase attitudes. Just goes to show that the majority of people posting on here - myself included - don't really have a clue what we are spouting on about.

For me personally the early threads are a reminder to me that justifys the decisions I took and the anxiety I suffered for weeks leading up to The parade being cancelled.

Honestly, I couldn’t work out how the virus wouldn’t get here and really thought o was going mad. (Can trace back the start of my preparations to Feb 11th). But I was beginning to think that I was going mad. When everybody else is ignoring a threat , you do start to feel like you can see aliens among us and can’t discuss it with people who don’t see these aliens. I Am a cautious person when it comes to my health and address any issues or concerns immediately. I natural disasters and these sort of stories interesting so I can get quite absorbed in information and trying to get factual information. This more then anything probably explains why I might of been a bit ahead of the curve, my interest in the topic , as opposed to anything else.

The most frustrating part in the earlier threads were people who defaulted to ignorance and plain old fingers in the ears. It’s one thing disagreeing with others, it’s quite another to accuse them of scaremongering and over reacting without any meat to your own reasoning. In many regards people just didn’t want to consider what might happen and refused to even discuss the evidence that suggested otherwise.

It also exposed a real blind spot in society. Not to drag global warming or the damage we are doing to our own planet, but it shines a light on how we really don’t give any thought to the planet if it’s an inconvenience. As the only phrase goes “would you rather be right or would you rather be happy”, in many cases being happy is more important/preferable to being right. So burying the head in ignorance can have its rewards.

I certainly won’t pretend to be perfect or any less ignorant then the rest of us. If anything I feel a bit more guilty because I know how selfish , self absorbed and ignorant our species is and quite often I chose to ignore it so I can just get on with things myself. When you truly reflect on our behaviours it is truly awful how we treat the planet and each other.

Another tactic we use is deflection. China’s fault, Trumps fault, Religion fault, banks fault. All these things are facilitated, manipulated , corrupted and propped up by people and ideologies that are man made. By singling them out we do so to absolve ourselves of any responsibility or distance ourselves from those we don’t want to identify with on any capacity. The issue is and always is mankind, not necessarily individuals or countries. Everybody just looks out for themselves and only point fingers and find fallguy when it suits.

Only reason anybody cares about banks getting loans repayed to them is when banks are owned by state. Only reason anybody cares about wet markets in China now is because the virus is global. Didn’t matter when asian countries suffered an outbreak in the 00s. A significant reason Trump got in was because of political correctness gone mad And the rise of reality TV that’s made USA a parody of itself at this stage.

If you aren’t looking at your role in something , then you haven’t really done your due diligence to figure out the reason for the issue and thus a suitable solution. How many people advocated that Ireland put significant resources into emergency planning/management? It’s all good and well telling China not to eat dodgy animals but viruses will happen regardless. We had foot and mouth, so it’s not like we didn’t have any warnings. If we had put in place, as a country, better measures to deal with an outbreak maybe we could of handled this better. Our electorate determines what they want our government to do so nobody can blame governments.

Morpork

Alf Veedersane wrote: »

Ten

Just so you're not disappointed -- Ten what?

Shn99

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1247540701291638787?s=21

Bob24

Wibbs wrote: »

Actually apart from the occasional "t'is only a flu" most people on the first thread were taking the information as it came and were concerned about what it might do when it got into the rest of the world outside China. A few were talking about methods to slow the spread, others didn't trust the Chinese figures, others were talking about how it seemed to be killing manly older people. The first thread was fairly balanced overall.

Yep but there were a few posts already looking pretty silly :-)

Not from the very first thread, but let me dig-up a nice one from early March which at the time I though was worth bookmarking for further reference: the guy saying that having a lockdown would be the same overreaction as taking all cars of the roads because car crashs kill more in Ireland than the coronavirus :-/ (at the time it was starting to become big in Italy and the exponential growth aspect was perfectly understood)

simplyeric wrote: »

Seven the number of people who have died on Irish roads since Friday.Should cars be taken off roads?Just a thought.

For further reference the post currently has three thanks - will it still have any if the people who thanked it see this now? :-D

Sir Oxman

PUBLIC HEALTH MESSAGE
(They should change the ones on RTE for this)
https://twitter.com/uespiiiiii/status/1247449432301264898?s=20