CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

ACitizenErased

Amirani wrote: »

By far the highest case numbers of any country and will be the highest number of deaths soon. Great job Donald.

We may laugh and joke about Trump but he's not wrong. The WHO have made a balls of this. Telling people it was no big deal at the start and believing every thing China fed it.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Just found this report from week 12 2020. Week starting 16th of march.

HSE say transmission is airborne but masks not effective. ? huh. WTF.

• this shows airborne outbreaks in hospitals
• may explain some of the HCW transmission
• shows what's reported publicly is not necessarily accurate

https://www.hpsc.ie/notifiablediseases/weeklyoutbreakreport/2020Wk12_Weekly_Outbreak_Report_WEB.pdf

Also everyone on here arguing that it is not airborne and to follow guidelines.

I take it nobody wants to argue that it is not airborne?
No spin?
No insulting.
Glad that's over.
Wear a mask if you have one.

Professor Moriarty

eagle eye wrote: »

Varadkar hasn't done a great job either, or Conte, or Macron or Sanchez but I don't see any post from you about any of them.

Varadkar has done an infinitely superior job than Trump as a leader of a country in crisis. As a human being too.

Mango Joe

josip wrote: »

Swap 20 bags of plain for 20 bags of self raiser?
We need the plain for pancakes but we have a few self raising spare.

Who has 20+ bags of flour in their house?

I thought hoarding foodstuffs was frowned upon as it impacts others unnecessarily.....

2016

peasant wrote: »

Until we have enough testing capacity for the following scenario:

When we get to the point where R0 is < 1 (where one infected person infects less than one healthy one statistically) we can then start to slightly ease restrictions.

More correct to talk about R (effective reproduction number) not R0 (basic reproduction).

jill_valentine

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We may laugh and joke about Trump but he's not wrong. The WHO have made a balls of this. Telling people it was no big deal at the start and believing every thing China fed it.

Here's a list of every time Trump tried to play this down as no big deal. Note that it's only marked as "mostly true" because it's not exhaustive.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/timeline-trump-covid19-responses/#

Amirani

eagle eye wrote: »

Varadkar hasn't done a great job either, or Conte, or Macron or Sanchez but I don't see any post from you about any of them.

Trump is the one who is criticisng the WHO and celebrating his approach for being better than others.

I'm merely stating the fact that they have far worse case numbers and will have worse deaths than any other country. He needs to own his monumental failure.

quokula

Bob24 wrote: »

Yep but there were a few posts already looking pretty silly :-)

Not from the very first thread, but let me dig-up a nice one from early March which at the time I though was worth bookmarking for further reference: the guy saying that having a lockdown would be the same overreaction as taking all cars of the roads because car crashs kill more in Ireland than the coronavirus :-/ (at the time it was starting to become big in Italy and the exponential growth aspect was perfectly understood)



For further reference the post currently has three thanks - will it still have any if the people who thanked it see this now? :-D

As people have said, a lot of people have cried wolf in the past, and a stopped clock is inevitably correct twice a day. Or in this case the misery junkies and scare mongers were correct once in a century.

For every post comparing to road deaths, there were other posts predicting tens of thousands of deaths in Ireland. Fortunately the best estimate we have from the data right now is suggesting about 400 deaths in total which is way, way closer to annual road deaths than some of those early predictions, which is something to be thankful for.

It was not unreasonable at all to be cautious of those wild predictions in the early days as every other similar outbreak in modern times has been contained and it was in line with so many other scare mongering stories that have amounted to nothing over the years. It was a new virus and there was not enough evidence to suggest it would grow the way it eventually did.

There's nothing dumb about basing opinions on the prevailing facts at the time, and modifying those opinions as more evidence emerges, which is precisely what the experts around the world were also doing and what the authorities in Ireland have done with proportionate action to keep our curve well within our health care capacity.

stephenjmcd

3,039 new cases of coronavirus and 604 new deaths in Italy.

Total reaches to 135,586 confirmed cases and 17,127 confirmed deaths

Ficheall

Amirani wrote: »

Trump is the one who is criticisng the WHO

Can't fault him for that bit, tbh..

Amirani

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We may laugh and joke about Trump but he's not wrong. The WHO have made a balls of this. Telling people it was no big deal at the start and believing every thing China fed it.

When did the WHO say it was no big deal? They've been taking it seriously for far longer than Western leaders. Trump was still saying the flu was worse in late February.

Nermal

peasant wrote: »

Until we have enough testing capacity for the following scenario:

When we get to the point where R0 is < 1 (where one infected person infects less than one healthy one statistically) we can then start to slightly ease restrictions.
There still won't be mass events, travel may be restricted, max numbers of customers in shops and/or workplaces will have to be adhered to...but mostly we will have to go back to work to prevent an economic meltdown.

But even work will have to be managed to allow for as much social distancing as possible. Companies that have never worked shifts before may have to do shiftwork to spread the work and amount of people doing it. Other companies may have to have limited outputs...etc ...all to keep the social distancing going.

And then we will have to test, test, and test again.
Any new infection will have to be contact traced and all those contacts will have to go into a selective lockdown until they are clear again.

This is the only way we will be able to keep the curve flat and not kill the economy completely.

It will be a tough few months (years?)

I do fear that this appears to be the emerging strategy.

It’s not being articulated, because it will not gain public acceptance.

I wonder how poor we will be when we realise it’s a mistake.

kilkenny31

Nermal wrote: »

I do fear that this appears to be the emerging strategy.

It’s not being articulated, because it will not gain public acceptance.

I wonder how poor we will be when we realise it’s a mistake.

There is also the possibility that all this will just go away over the summer and never return. There is a lot we don't know.

stephenjmcd

caveat emptor wrote: »

I take it nobody wants to argue that it is not airborne?
No spin?
No insulting.
Glad that's over.
Wear a mask if you have one.

No point in anyone coming in with a point that doesn't agree with your narrative as has been proven through this all.

The setting says hosptial, healthcare staff have been told to wear masks since the start thats not changed.

Nobody also argued that ot wasn't airborne. Airborne covers someone coughing and you pick it up that way.

What an attention seeking post to repost cause nobody is bothered to bite on your first post

Glenomra

Sweden remains an enigma. Limited restrictions and virus under as much control as most countries with tight lockdown. Looks like they got it right.

caveat emptor

quokula wrote: »

As people have said, a lot of people have cried wolf in the past, and a stopped clock is inevitably correct twice a day. Or in this case the misery junkies and scare mongers were correct once in a century.

For every post comparing to road deaths, there were other posts predicting tens of thousands of deaths in Ireland. Fortunately the best estimate we have from the data right now is suggesting about 400 deaths in total which is way, way closer to annual road deaths than some of those early predictions, which is something to be thankful for.

It was not unreasonable at all to be cautious of those wild predictions in the early days as every other similar outbreak in modern times has been contained and it was in line with so many other scare mongering stories that have amounted to nothing over the years. It was a new virus and there was not enough evidence to suggest it would grow the way it eventually did.

There's nothing dumb about basing opinions on the prevailing facts at the time, and modifying those opinions as more evidence emerges, which is precisely what the experts around the world were also doing and what the authorities in Ireland have done with proportionate action to keep our curve well within our health care capacity.

That’s a long post to explain how you got it completely wrong.

Ficheall

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden remains an enigma. Limited restrictions and virus under as much control as most countries with tight lockdown. Looks like they got it right.

Where on earth are you getting your info from?

Cork Boy 53

stephenjmcd wrote: »

3,039 new cases of coronavirus and 604 new deaths in Italy.

Total reaches to 135,586 confirmed cases and 17,127 confirmed deaths

That is a drop in new cases there I think. Sadly the deaths seem to be on the rise again.

fritzelly

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden remains an enigma. Limited restrictions and virus under as much control as most countries with tight lockdown. Looks like they got it right.

Don't see 114 deaths today as having it under control

caveat emptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No point in anyone coming in with a point that doesn't agree with your narrative as has been proven through this all.

The setting says hosptial, healthcare staff have been told to wear masks since the start thats not changed.

Nobody also argued that ot wasn't airborne. Airborne covers someone coughing and you pick it up that way.

What an attention seeking post to repost cause nobody is bothered to bite on your first post

That’s hilarious. The thread says not to use term airborne. HSE said not airborne yet this report says it is. I don’t know but if I was following the guidelines I’d be pretty peeved to know HSE telling me not to worry , not airborne and then state in a report it is.

You clearly didn’t read the report. There are outbreaks reported on offices and homes with transmission recorded as AIRBORNE.

Spin, spin spin

bodhrandude

What time is the update for Ireland today.

Ace2007

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden remains an enigma. Limited restrictions and virus under as much control as most countries with tight lockdown. Looks like they got it right.

They have nearly 600 deaths - or roughtly 59 per million population, whereas Ireland is at 35 per million. Not sure how Sweden has got it right...

stephenjmcd

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

That is a drop in new cases there I think. Sadly the deaths seem to be on the rise again.

Yeah it's a drop in new cases, over 1k I think.
Sadly but not surprising regarding the deaths, most would have contracted the virus a few weeks ago. Unfortunately deaths will remain high even if they get the case numbers low for the next while

Amirani

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden remains an enigma. Limited restrictions and virus under as much control as most countries with tight lockdown. Looks like they got it right.

They have 3 and a half times the death rate as their nearest neighbour Norway - 59/m v 16/m. Doing considerably worse than Finland and Denmark too, who are also adjacent. They're not doing great at all and there's lots of indication they're going to introduce lockdown measures shortly.

Christy42

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden remains an enigma. Limited restrictions and virus under as much control as most countries with tight lockdown. Looks like they got it right.

Ehhh they have had a lot of deaths in recent days. I think they have a unique situation in Scandinavian culture but they are the worst out of their neighbours. Unfortunately their curve might not have peaked.

stephenjmcd

caveat emptor wrote: »

That’s hilarious. The thread says not to use term airborne. HSE said not airborne yet this report says it is. I don’t know but if I was following the guidelines I’d be pretty peeved to know HSE telling me not to worry , not airborne and then state in a report it is.

You clearly didn’t read the report. There are outbreaks reported on offices and homes with transmission recorded as AIRBORNE.

Spin, spin spin

Here we go, spin spin spin. Presume I'm going to be called a bot next. Yawn.

Expected that reply.

It's not airborne in the sense that if your out walking on your own with nobody else around you then you womt get it. Airborne in a hospital setting is different, but sure what would I know, spin spin spin

growleaves

For every post comparing to road deaths, there were other posts predicting tens of thousands of deaths in Ireland.

Yep. The most foolish posts are in the middle threads with a sudden influx of folk epidemologists floating absurdly high death rate estimates, taking Lombardy as representative of the whole world (how's the air pollution around Clare these days?) and not including silent recoveries and asymptomatic cases in their computations.

Its these people who are smart enough to parse statistics but don't understand that statistics must be interpreted by someone with knowledge of the subject (medicine, in this case). Otherwise the statistics become worse-than-useless. If you're one of these people, please stick to IT in the future.

Cork Boy 53

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

That is a drop in new cases there I think. Sadly the deaths seem to be on the rise again.

Deaths will follow cases by about 2 weeks and you can see from the Italian data that they had initial peak follow by a second about a week later, so I would not read too much into the death increase and would expect to see it start to fall considerably from next week. Both due to the fall in cases itself, but all due to the easing of pressure on the system as the case load falls

yourdeadwright

I wonder how many more people died in March this year than died last year in March here in Ireland ,

Strazdas

Amirani wrote: »

They have 3 and a half times the death rate as their nearest neighbour Norway - 59/m v 16/m. Doing considerably worse than Finland and Denmark too, who are also adjacent. They're not doing great at all and there's lots of indication they're going to introduce lockdown measures shortly.

Also, are they even reporting nursing home or community deaths? I know that the Danes are.....if the Swedes are not, it would distort the gap even further.