CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Arghus

nocoverart wrote: »

Really dumb question, but when people talk about a Second or Third Wave, is that more to do with less restrictions and therefore it will spread again or an actual mutation of the Virus?

I'm not a virologist, but I assume it's down to the predicted second wave of spread once you lift restrictions and people start to move around again. Unless you've basically eradicated the virus - which is pretty impossible without an extended period of even harsher lock-down measures - a second wave of new infections is to be expected once restrictions are eased. Anything I've heard hasn't put this down to a mutation of the virus.

And, once again, from what I've read. It appears that a mutation in the virus may not be the worst outcome. It could be more likely to mutate into a less deadly strain. For the virus successs doesn't mean more bodies, it means more transmission and infection, but less overall leathality. But, once again, I'm not a virologist.

Xertz

This is all a bit bizarre:

“A Dublin-based company has claimed before the High Court that the Health Service Executive has failed to honour a contract for the provision of 350 medical ventilators to treat those who contract coronavirus.“

https://www.rte.ie/news/courts/2020/0407/1129147-courts-ventilators/

“It also seeks orders restraining the HSE from taking any steps to avoid its obligations under the contract, as well as an order preventing the defendant from purchasing similar types of ventilators until the sums allegedly due under the contract have been paid to Narooma.”

If I understand this correctly, they claim the HSE entered a contact on 27 March, with payment due on 31 March.

Also the company appears to be based at a residential address, going on what comes up on solocheck anyway, although that’s not unusual for a small niche business.

I’m just baffled that the HSE would have entered a contract on 27 March with payment due on 31st for millions of Euro. It all seems a quite strange. Are we at that level of panicked purchasing?

cameramonkey

fritzelly wrote: »

Cannot remember the exact wording in the briefing but IIRC all figures given so far (as in positives, infections vector etc) include the German testing but the German tests are not part of the total tests done within this country i.e. the 42k are purely Irish tests plus the 6k done in Germany

They really don't help themselves by giving very vague "answers" to some pointed questions - not sure what the big secret is for some of the data.

It would be a be advance if they had processed in total 18000 or so tests this week. 6000 more than last, 2500 per day average. They should keep using the German labs until they can get testing numbers up in Ireland.

As you say then are not exactly clear in their answers.

Switch Profile

Deleted User wrote: »

I'll say it.
I don't like that.
I was born in the 1960s, have always had an interest in history, and though I know we are in a relatively difficult period right now, I do not like the fact that I can be arrested tomorrow for walking more than 2km from my home.

Argue all you like but I feel very uncomfortable about that.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

Maestro85

fritzelly wrote: »

Google the Spanish Flu - the first wave wasn't bad, then it circulated around the globe and came back and was quite deadly after it mutated in that time

People are talking of the similar thing but in a very short space of time i.e. everything is looking good so you lift restrictions then infections balloon again and you are back at square one.

I was speaking to a nurse today and they, meaning her colleagues, expect this to make a come back this winter (if it ever truly goes away at all).

nocoverart

Well aware of the Spanish Flu and I hope I’m not coming across as a smart ass but you’re basically duplicating what I’m asking. Does it actually mutate into a more severe Virus or rise again because of softer Restrictions? Apples & Oranges with regards to both Viruses, totally different social environment for one.. they were going through a World War for one and then the actual Spanish Flu could of behaved in a completely different way to this.

Sorry I meant to reply this to Fritzelly

cameramonkey

Switch Profile wrote: »

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

https://www.npr.org/2015/03/02/390245038/ben-franklins-famous-liberty-safety-quote-lost-its-context-in-21st-century


The context of the quote is everything.

nocoverart

Arghus wrote: »

I'm not a virologist, but I assume it's down to the predicted second wave of spread once you lift restrictions and people start to move around again. Unless you've basically eradicated the virus - which is pretty impossible without an extended period of even harsher lock-down measures - a second wave of new infections is to be expected once restrictions are eased. Anything I've heard hasn't put this down to a mutation of the virus.

And, once again, from what I've read. It appears that a mutation in the virus may not be the worst outcome. It could be more likely to mutate into a less deadly strain. For the virus successs doesn't mean more bodies, it means more transmission and infection, but less overall leathality. But, once again, I'm not a virologist.

Makes total sense, thank you.

bekker

cameramonkey wrote: »

It would be a be advance if they had processed in total 18000 or so tests this week. 6000 more than last, 2500 per day average. They should keep using the German labs until they can get testing numbers up in Ireland.

As you say then are not exactly clear in their answers.

Given up on test and 'Confirmed' figures.

Still can't quite decide whether the reason for the obfuscation in relaying the figures is a deliberate strategy of concealment, or a bye-product of dysfunctional information flows.

Added to that the HSE is a very much a siloed system, if the're not charged with responsible for managing it they don't know it, even if it directly impacts their operations. c.f. Nursing Homes

fritzelly

nocoverart wrote: »

Well aware of the Spanish Flu and I hope I’m not coming across as a smart ass but you’re basically duplicating what I’m asking. Does it actually mutate into a more severe Virus or rise again because of softer Restrictions? Apples & Oranges with regards to both Viruses, totally different social environment for one.. they were going through a World War for one and then the actual Spanish Flu could of behaved in a completely different way to this.

Sorry I meant to reply this to Fritzelly

Yes you are - I answered your question, the Spanish Flu is an example of waves, this is the same but it may not be a case of it circumnavigating the world first.

As for mutations no one knows - RNA viruses mutate quickly (IIRC something like 1000 times more than a DNA virus) but those mutations are at a different level to how a DNA virus mutates which can go either way (less or worse)
But...as we're seeing this is transferring to other animals and this is a cause for concern because it could then wildly mutate and reinfect humans again and be a lot worse

Strazdas

Arghus wrote: »

I'm not a virologist, but I assume it's down to the predicted second wave of spread once you lift restrictions and people start to move around again. Unless you've basically eradicated the virus - which is pretty impossible without an extended period of even harsher lock-down measures - a second wave of new infections is to be expected once restrictions are eased. Anything I've heard hasn't put this down to a mutation of the virus.

And, once again, from what I've read. It appears that a mutation in the virus may not be the worst outcome. It could be more likely to mutate into a less deadly strain. For the virus successs doesn't mean more bodies, it means more transmission and infection, but less overall leathality. But, once again, I'm not a virologist.

You would think though that a second wave would have far less impact than the first. All of the info on how to fight the virus is now out there and public awareness and knowledge of the virus is through the roof.

Arghus

Strazdas wrote: »

You would think though that a second wave would have far less impact than the first. All of the info on how to fight the virus is now out there and public awareness and knowledge of the virus is through the roof.

I think that's the assumption too, that there would already be some sort of infrastructure in place and a greater understanding about how to deal with it, whereas now everything is essentially being implemented from scratch. But the severity and the duration of the first wave would also take a toll on the capacity to fight the second wave.

speckle

fritzelly wrote: »

Thats old laws at this stage

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/bills/bill/2020/3/
Apologies this is the one that gives the guards extra power and also fines penalties for not self isolating etc

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1947/act/28/section/29/enacted/en/html

nocoverart

fritzelly wrote: »

Yes you are - I answered your question, the Spanish Flu is an example of waves, this is the same but it may not be a case of it circumnavigating the world first.

As for mutations no one knows - RNA viruses mutate quickly (IIRC something like 1000 times more than a DNA virus) but those mutations are at a different level to how a DNA virus mutates which can go either way (less or worse)
But...as we're seeing this is transferring to other animals and this is a cause for concern because it could then wildly mutate and reinfect humans again and be a lot worse

I’m really not coming across as a smart ass, I’m very naive when it comes to this, so from your post I was referring too, if we lessen restrictions it will mutate? because I’m trying to define a difference between mutation and complacency.

fritzelly

speckle wrote: »

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/bills/bill/2020/3/
Apologies this is the one that gives the guards extra power and also fines penalties for not self isolating etc. re covid

Nothing in there about fines or jail or gardai being allowed to stop citizens from leaving their area

MipMap

nocoverart wrote: »

I’m really not coming across as a smart ass, I’m very naive when it comes to this, so from your post I was referring too, if we lessen restrictions it will mutate? because I’m trying to define a difference between mutation and complacency.

Excellent website covers this and other stuff.


https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

Nothing in there about fines or jail or gardai being allowed to stop citizens from leaving their area

in certain circumstances, the detention of persons who are suspected to be potential sources of infection with the disease known as Covid-19 and to provide for enforcement measures in that regard; and to confer on the Minister for Health the power to designate areas as areas of infection of Covid-19

Seems broad enough to allow arrest of anyone leaving an area

fritzelly

nocoverart wrote: »

I’m really not coming across as a smart ass, I’m very naive when it comes to this, so from your post I was referring too, if we lessen restrictions it will mutate? because I’m trying to define a difference between mutation and complacency.

Second wave in this instance is there is not enough herd immunity to stop a mass infection happening
Major mutations in RNA viruses are rare (not foregoing the human to animal transmission and back again which could shake things up)
Flu is an RNA virus the same as coronavirus - barely changes each year

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

Seems broad enough to allow arrest of anyone leaving an area

Pretty sure that was only to deal with known positive cases to stop them moving around, not Joe Public moving around

fritzelly

MipMap wrote: »

Excellent website covers this and other stuff.


https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19

Thanks - was looking for something like that and kept getting very technical papers

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

Pretty sure that was only to deal with known positive cases to stop them moving around, not Joe Public moving around

Says suspected cases

All gaurds have to do is claim you as a suspected case,

which unless your one of the 50 or so people who are listed as recovered,you could potentially have it and not have sythoms???

speckle

fritzelly wrote: »

Nothing in there about fines or jail or gardai being allowed to stop citizens from leaving their area

It refers to the 1947 act which was updated a couple of years ago. its the other link I added that wont come up as a link on screen.
If anyone can post it as a link that links . thankyou

BorneTobyWilde

Nobody on the road
Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air
The summer's out of reach


Empty lake, empty streets
The sun goes down alone
I'm driving by your house
And can't go in though you're home


But I can see you
Your brown skin shining in the sun
You got your hair combed back and your
Sunglasses on baby
I can tell you my love for you will still be strong
After the Covid of summer, is gone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWT90HzLF3U

fritzelly

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Nobody on the road
Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air
The summer's out of reach

Perfect song!

techdiver

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Are the HSE still testing if you have two or more symptoms?

Are they actually happy that there's asymptomatic people out there spreading it?

I don't understand.

There not even testing you if you have symptoms anymore. That is not enough to meet the testing criteria. You must also be in a high risk group or have come into contact with a confirmed case. Basically means our daily case figures are not in any way accurate and should not be a measure of where we are. The important figures are deaths and the amount of people in ICU.

old_aussie

Sittingpretty wrote: »

My God Trump is an insufferable moron.

Waffle waffle waffle.

The irony, you're hanging off every word Trump says.

BorneTobyWilde

fritzelly wrote: »

Perfect song!

Yea it is, just thought of it and now am listening to it over and over .

fritzelly

If anyone has free time and wants to help older people out Alone are looking for help (don't remember this being posted before and not trawling all the other threads)
Even if it's just for a few hours or to pick up a prescription

https://alone.ie/
https://www.tfaforms.com/4715929

Strumms

bekker wrote: »

FG selected a media poster-boy as leader in '17.

He delivered on that.

He's that still, great for the one liner, and the photo op.

Lousy at being decisive, lousy at taking responsibility, but then they knew that from his previous track record when they elected him.

As a pr friendly guy he ticked all of the boxes...

He had everything

Dukes

Bruton

Noonan

Enda

All big fûcking gruff personality voides, trust would be an issue too. For whatever strengths there were a good number of weaknesses, in fact I wouldn’t even want to have a pint or a cup of tea with a single one of them...

Leo seems on the face of it a nice enough fella, he’s far better talented at talking PR and at damage limitation. But when you scratch away the varnish he’s cut very much of the same cloth. Covid has exposed his weaknesses and that of his colleagues.

wakka12

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200406125507.htm

94% of cases worldwide likely going undetected. Thought that Germany is catching about 15% of infections, while the Uk and Spain are finding only about 1-2% of infections