CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

fr336

It's been posted here before but it's said that on average during normal times one infected person infects two others which after a while leads to 400 infections which can be attributed to the original person. During a lockdown this average goes down to 15 people. Quite incredible. I do wonder how low it could go if we were more innovative around essential work and travel e.g. in supermarkets why can't they set up click (or phone) and collect so that people aren't walking around a store but simply order beforehand and pick up their groceries at an allotted time? As a society we seem to do as little as possible in these situations rather than embracing the challenge and preventing rather than curing (I'm not including the amazing people in healthcare, science and the like in this analysis)

easypazz

kippy wrote: »

I don't disagree, am only trying to point out that we are not near peak/plateau in deaths per day and people really need to maintain a level of cop on with regards to their behaviour.

You keep saying we are not near peak but you never offer anything by way of evidence to back that up.

Maestro85

DubInMeath wrote: »

Yep know what you mean, plenty of reassignment going on in the cc where my missus works.

Well I was holding out for Cork civil service this year, holding hope, but no movement on panel and even though I am being a whinger about things I do realise how lucky I am to still have a job in tourism.

beolight

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Then don’t.

You are doubting that air traffic into Ireland has greatly reduced. It has greatly reduced. Pretty much every plane I’ve looked closer at on Flightradar is a cargo plane. Though apparently pointing that out means one is an FG supporter.

I don’t know, do you think there should be NO flights into Ireland? Is there no reason good enough to be allowed back into the country?

Yeah air traffic has fallen significantly but daily non cargo flghts are still coming in from UK,France etcetc

Lets not forget it only takes one person coming off a flight/ fishing ship/ ferry or crossing/ cross border train/ cross border bus/ cross border car/ cross border truck to restart this whole ball game and what draconian laws have been introduced to combat this threat? Smebody handing you a leaflet in the airport.
Compar and contrast how our borders were patrolled during foot and mouth crisis

Its hard to rationalse the public witch hunt that is gong on about people flouting the rules( now the law) by taking non essential travel to holiday homes etc. Break these rules( laws now ) and fines , jail time and public humliation can be the result. Yet same person can book a flight to wherever head over pick up the virus arrive home 2 weeks later and be handed( maybe) a leaflet! Or say a UK citizen can fly over here for essential business (repair a machine) and travel anywhere in the country at his leisure.

Maybe instead of immediately defending Fine Gael and questioning the posters motive you should read the post again ...... unless we tackle/ protect our borders/ points of entry with proper checks/quarantine or insist all travellers to our country have a medical pre clearance stating they have tested negative we are only chasing our tails here..

Its time people realise n the absence of a vaccine that all the social distancing, lockdowns, handwashing, coconing is pointless if our Politicans don't have the backbone to stand up to the EU and protect our own borders.

polesheep

kippy wrote: »

I don't disagree, am only trying to point out that we are not near peak/plateau in deaths per day and people really need to maintain a level of cop on with regards to their behaviour.

I disagree, I believe we are in and around peak infections. Deaths cannot be used as a guideline due to the terrible nursing home issue. I agree with the latter part of your post; let's keep it going and gradually reduce restrictions as indicated.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

polesheep wrote: »

I disagree, I believe we are in and around peak infections. Deaths cannot be used as a guideline due to the terrible nursing home issue. I agree with the latter part of your post; let's keep it going and gradually reduce restrictions as indicated.

Agree here. I think we at worst currently on an extended peak.

What has caused all of the clusters in nursing homes!?

dalyboy

Celia Sweet Snowmobile wrote: »

Agree here. I think we at worst currently on an extended peak.

What has caused all of the clusters in nursing homes!?

Old age and seasonal pneumonia ,,, maybe !

AlmightyCushion

wakka12 wrote: »

Turkey and Brazil reporting numbers comparable to many of the large European countries now

Turkey today 4.1k new cases and almost 90 deaths
Brazil 2.1k cases and 133 deaths

I remember talking to one of the Brazillian guys at work about a month ago and both Ireland and Brazil had similar amount of cases. I think they actually had less than us. Crazy to see how much it has grown in that time there.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

dalyboy wrote: »

Old age and seasonal pneumonia ,,, maybe !

Yes but how is the virus being spread into nursing homes...

MipMap

dalyboy wrote: »

Old age and seasonal pneumonia ,,, maybe !

FGS
Do you ever remember in recent years The Italians or the Spanish storing dead bodies in ice rinks as a result of "Old age and seasonal pneumonia"


934 people died in the UK today - did that happen last year?

polesheep

dalyboy wrote: »

Old age and seasonal pneumonia ,,, maybe !

We likely won't know for a while but, they should be excepting the nursing home statistics when evaluating the effects of restrictions on the general population. There is no point keeping everyone at home when most deaths are occurring in a controllable environment such as a nursing home.

AlmightyCushion

Celia Sweet Snowmobile wrote: »

Yes but how is the virus being spread into nursing homes...

In the daily briefings it was said that staff are bringing it in. Some staff will work in multiple nursing homes so if one of those staff members had it they spread it to multiple nursing homes.

dalyboy

MipMap wrote: »

FGS
Do you ever remember in recent years The Italians or the Spanish storing dead bodies in ice rinks as a result of "Old age and seasonal pneumonia"


934 people died in the UK today - did that happen last year?

Why? Have you stats for non accident related deaths for Italy and Spain in March for the last 10 years for comparison ?

0gac3yjefb5sv7

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

In the daily briefings it was said that staff are bringing it in. Some staff will work in multiple nursing homes so if one of those staff members had it they spread it to multiple nursing homes.

Woah...is that not something they should immediately address or have doneso back in mid March? Seems very foolish to be so lax when it comes to the most affected population of this virus.

MipMap

dalyboy wrote: »

Why? Have you stats for non accident related deaths for Italy and Spain ?

OK You are right.
There is nothing unusual happening. Let's get the pubs open again.

dalyboy

MipMap wrote: »

OK You are right.
There is nothing unusual happening. Let's get the pubs open again.

Jumping to conclusion fallacy on what I wrote , thanks

AlmightyCushion

Celia Sweet Snowmobile wrote: »

Woah...is that not something they should immediately address or have doneso back in mid March? Seems very foolish to be so lax when it comes to the most affected population of this virus.

It may be addressed now, may have been addressed long ago. I don't recall them mentioning if it had been addressed. However, once it's in a nursing home it's gonna spread that's just the reality is the situation so by the time it was realised it was an issue, it was already too late to address it.

Maestro85

Maestro85 wrote: »

Well I was holding out for Cork civil service this year, holding hope, but no movement on panel and even though I am being a whinger about things I do realise how lucky I am to still have a job in tourism.

Depends on the area of the cs your going for, but hold out hope for it, still recruiting at the moment. Mate of mine in the same boat, ended up reaching the top 10 of a panel just before this sh1te hit and no movement since.

beolight

Celia Sweet Snowmobile wrote: »

Agree here. I think we at worst currently on an extended peak.

What has caused all of the clusters in nursing homes!?

Put simply once the Nursing Homes stood their ground and restricted visitors despite the CMO and Leo admonishng them we had a situation were the residents are essentially cocooned in the Nursing Home but the staff are not. With the virus in the community with a R of 2.2 you can say that at least 10% of the community have the virus , so 10% give or take of the Nursing Home staff will most likely have been infected

The impossibility of cocooning nursing home staff meant that infection control and vigilance was paramount. Lack of PPE and clear guidance left Nursing Homes to muddle through with staff numbers falling sick daily .

The sudden urgency displayed by Minister Harris last week is PR he was well aware of the rate of infection in Nursing Homes weeks before we got to hear about it

mandrake04

JRant wrote: »

I'm not saying it was definitely here as we have no real idea when it arrived into the country. I remember reading that Australia had a first wave that passed without a huge problem but when it reappeared a few weeks later it seemed to much more aggressive. Could be all mumbo jumbo for all I know but it's fascinating how it seems to hit certain areas harder than others. Just goes to show how little we know about this virus to date.

When the dust settles there will be a new playbook on how not to deal with a pandemic, which can only be a good though.

Thats true, there believed to be several strains there were a small proportion of original Wuhan Chinese cases that passed with out much problem, the European strain that was behind the cruise ship cases was far more aggressive. I think Australia fairly lucky 2/3 of the cases were from overseas, and were picked up quickly by quick turnaround in testing. Then enforced army guarded isolation in hotels. The was one cluster at an aged care home early on, couple of deaths but lucky it could been worse.

Mwengwe

gabeeg wrote: »

**** that

Everyone entering Ireland's airports should have to have a minimum of two weeks worth of sandwiches on their person

Probably shouldn't engage with this seriously but what would the sandwich fillings be made of? Perhaps they should bring a mini-fridge on the plane too

wakka12

https://www.wionews.com/world/at-least-51-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-south-korea-291389
51 recovered patients in South Korea test positive again. But itsthought that reinfecion is unlikely, and probably a case of the virus lying dormant or else a false positive test

MipMap

beolight wrote: »

Put simply once the Nursing Homes stood their ground and restricted visitors despite the CMO and Leo admonishng them we had a situation were the residents are essentially cocooned in the Nursing Home but the staff are not. With the virus in the community with a R of 2.2 you can say that at least 10% of the community have the virus , so 10% give or take of the Nursing Home staff will most likely have been infected

The impossibility of cocooning nursing home staff meant that infection control and vigilance was paramount. Lack of PPE and clear guidance left Nursing Homes to muddle through with staff numbers falling sick daily .

The sudden urgency displayed by Minister Harris last week is PR he was well aware of the rate of infection in Nursing Homes weeks before we got to hear about it

Earlier today a Nursing Home Worker made an excellent post explaining the
situation. I'm trying to find it.
Basically He/She said that lockdowns in a nursing home is impossible as you
have people coming in and out all the time and, unlike a hospital, you don't have the precautions, PPE or security systems in place because the presence of the infection is assumed in a hospital but not in a care home.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

MipMap wrote: »

Earlier today a Nursing Home Worker made an excellent post explaining the
situation. I'm trying to find it.
Basically He/She said that lockdowns in a nursing home is impossible as you
have people coming in and out all the time and, unlike a hospital, you don't have the precautions, PPE or security systems in place because the presence of the infection is assumed in a hospital but not in a care home.

Thanks but would nursing homes not be the first port of call for locking down the disease seen as it's fatal to many elderly people...

wakka12

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1654676/middle-east
A member of the Iranian coronavirus task force claims over 500,000 cases in Iran are being covered up

Honestly I'm just surprised it's not in the millions tbh

MipMap

Celia Sweet Snowmobile wrote: »

Thanks but would nursing homes not be the first port of call for locking down the disease seen as it's fatal to many elderly people...

Well, I would think so but I reckon they dropped the ball a bit on this one.
Not just here. There was a horror story of a care home being abandoned in Spain last week.

forgodssake

Lockdown in a nursing home is impossible. Unless....you have sufficient PPE .. which a lot dont. You still have staff coming in and out every day, not knowing where they are coming from or what with. It's a tragedy unfolding.

Mwengwe

fr336 wrote: »

It's been posted here before but it's said that on average during normal times one infected person infects two others which after a while leads to 400 infections which can be attributed to the original person. During a lockdown this average goes down to 15 people. Quite incredible. I do wonder how low it could go if we were more innovative around essential work and travel e.g. in supermarkets why can't they set up click (or phone) and collect so that people aren't walking around a store but simply order beforehand and pick up their groceries at an allotted time? As a society we seem to do as little as possible in these situations rather than embracing the challenge and preventing rather than curing (I'm not including the amazing people in healthcare, science and the like in this analysis)

I understand why they say that and how they're trying to influence behaviour but personally I hate that '400 infections attributed to the orginal person' stuff...patient 400 is attributable to patient 390/91 etc imo. Viruses spread, that's what they do. Not a big fan of trying to pin mass deaths on someone who might not even know they're sick.

Sorry, just read a super-spreader article earlier and it made me really sad.

MipMap

forgodssake wrote: »

Lockdown in a nursing home is impossible. Unless....you have sufficient PPE .. which a lot dont. You still have staff coming in and out every day, not knowing where they are coming from or what with. It's a tragedy unfolding.

And how could you get someone with Dementia or Alzheimer's to follow the rules for social distancing, hand washing etc.,

Lwaker.

forgodssake wrote: »

Lockdown in a nursing home is impossible. Unless....you have sufficient PPE .. which a lot dont. You still have staff coming in and out every day, not knowing where they are coming from or what with. It's a tragedy unfolding.

What's happening with all the carers that do all the home visits all over the place