CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

michellie

facehugger99 wrote: »

There should be no issue with people going to second homes and taking reasonable precautions.

This is a lot of envy on display. Most of us have worked hard for a holiday home and are entitled to enjoy it.

You're missing the point. It's not about envy.

It's about being asked to stay in your god damn house for a while.

Are you one of those who has drove to another part of the country this weekend?

D.Q

michellie wrote: »

You're missing the point. It's not about envy.

It's about being asked to stay in your god damn house for a while.

Are you one of those who has drove to another part of the country this weekend?

Don't feed it.

auspicious

Martina1991 wrote: »

Companies will be churning out home tests to beat the band. They promise instant accurate results. They're sales people.

They will never be as accurate or reliable as tests that are carried out in a diagnostic laboratory.

I hear you. We have a ways to go but I'm sure there'll be one.

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Croatia is the country we and every other country in Europe should have copied. 19 deaths, which averages out at 1 every 2 days since their first confirmed case.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Croatia

They have land borders with 5 other countries which made it far more complicated than us with a single border. But they managed to slow it down remarkably.

Our comparison should always be with the countries of western europe. Apples and Oranges. Had this started in summer Croatia would have been much worse

Theboinkmaster

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Yes I agree - we should be following the New Zealand model.

Move the country 3.5hours from the nearest landmass?

Seamai

caveat emptor wrote: »

Oh yeah Eastern Europe , more commies. The latent xenophobia is hilarious given that every country has fudged/ fiddled numbers.

• we did more tests -> just didn't process them = fiddle
• do we even do post mortem tests on people who die from ARD
• from what I've read nursing home testing is not a priority yet the number of deaths much higher from these clusters

That makes us better?

What are you on about? Latent xenophobia? would you ever go take a walk for yourself and chillax. My partner is half eastern European.

Strazdas

wakka12 wrote: »

Goes to show how hard it is to contain, Singapore had it's highest daily total today of almost 300 new cases. Previous highest daily total was only around 50 cases

I'm not entirely sure I would read much into the Singapore situation. Yes, they relaxed restrictions and the virus rebounded immediately but there is no guarantee this would be replicated elsewhere.

For starters, Singapore is just about the most densely populated country in the world. 5m people packed into a tiny living space.

auspicious

polesheep wrote: »

But they may be sufficiently accurate for the intended purpose. Pregnancy tests come to mind as well as blood sugar tests for diabetics.

My line of thinking.

cameramonkey

Wales getting hit hard, their population is about 3 million I think.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/apr/09/uk-coronavirus-live-lockdown-extended-boris-johnson-in-hospital-covid-19-latest-updates

"Further 41 deaths in Wales, bringing total to 286

A further 41 patients have died after testing positive for coronavirus in
Wales, bringing the total number of deaths there to 286, health officials said.

Public Health Wales also said that due to a change in the reporting process, it is today reporting a lower than usual number of new cases of Covid-19 in Wales. It said 16 new cases have tested positive for Covid-19 in Wales."

caveat emptor

Alf Veedersane wrote: »

I expect a good, well-reasoned discussion will happen because Bridie from Ballybrack is a strong moderator.

Yeah lots of "ah that's terrible" There are always good nuggets of information for those who are willing to endure the "oh jaysus, please god" repeats.
You have to filter out the noise much like this thread.

Here's a summary for you.

• Woman lost her father who was in a nursing home.
• He is still waiting for the test result over 2 weeks later.
• There were many other residents in same boat regarding waiting for results.

Very sad. Not sure if the cause of death recorded as COVID19. I wouldn't think so. How many more people have stories like her. How would this affect our statistics on the impact of this.

AtomicHorror

facehugger99 wrote: »

There should be no issue with people going to second homes and taking reasonable precautions.

This is a lot of envy on display. Most of us have worked hard for a holiday home and are entitled to enjoy it.

"Entitled" is the only bit you got right here.

If you get sick or have an accident, you'll have to go get treatment locally and that will mean lots of unplanned contacts and possibly you'll have started a new cluster.

"Reasonable precautions" are different based on context. If you're driving a car, a seat belt is a reasonable precaution. If your living through a global viral pandemic that has infected at least 1.5 million people within 3 months, staying in your damn home is a reasonable precaution.

cameramonkey

Also from the Guardian
"Researchers who mapped some of the original spread of coronavirus in humans have discovered there are variants of the virus throughout the world.

They reconstructed the early evolutionary paths of Covid-19 as infection spread from Wuhan, China, out to Europe and North America.

By analysing the first 160 complete virus genomes to be sequenced from human patients, scientists found the variant closest to that discovered in bats was largely found in patients from the US and Australia, not Wuhan.

Dr Peter Forster, geneticist and lead author from the University of Cambridge, said: “There are too many rapid mutations to neatly trace a Covid-19 family tree. We used a mathematical network algorithm to visualise all the plausible trees simultaneously."

“These techniques are mostly known for mapping the movements of prehistoric human populations through DNA.”

cameramonkey

Scotland also bad.

"Nicola Sturgeon has announced that 81 further Covid-19 deaths have been reported overnight in Scotland, taking the total number of deaths involving laboratory-confirmed victims of the virus to 447. "

Pseudonym121

facehugger99 wrote: »

There should be no issue with people going to second homes and taking reasonable precautions.

This is a lot of envy on display. Most of us have worked hard for a holiday home and are entitled to enjoy it.

You’re entitled to enjoy a second home when doing so won’t kill others. You’re not entitled to do so when doing so en masse will, inevitably, result in more infections and more deaths.

I’d put my work rate and need to recharge when not working up against yours any day of the week and I will be staying at hone over the weekend. Not because I enjoy it or don’t feel I deserve a break ( In the last month I’ve averaged over 80 hrs per week of work each week in what I’m certain are far more stressful environs than you ) but because to do otherwise might kill citizens of the state. I’ll stay home because it is h e right thing to do and I’m not a selfish, entitled a**hole.

Honestly I hope you’re trolling because to think you’d be so selfish as to risk killing people over something so transitory is heart-breaking.

As to reasonable precautions: I very carefully observe what people are doing in public and seem to assume are reasonable precautions. They’re not. I’m absolutely certain your reasonable precautions would not prevent you catching and/or spreading SARS-CoV2 if exposed.

cameramonkey

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0409/1129563-national-laboratory-testing/

Testing still a huge problem,"We are down to about a third of what our original capacity was."
so down 67%.

tobefrank321

caveat emptor wrote: »

Oh yeah Eastern Europe , more commies. The latent xenophobia is hilarious given that every country has fudged/ fiddled numbers.

• we did more tests -> just didn't process them = fiddle
• do we even do post mortem tests on people who die from ARD
• from what I've read nursing home testing is not a priority yet the number of deaths much higher from these clusters

That makes us better?

Most alarming of all is our German processed tests. 6% positive rate for the results from those yesterday. 99 positives out of 1650 tests. Indicates these were old tests of people infected up to a month or more ago.

So we had 99 positive people who didn't know it for a whole month. We also had possibly 1550 other people who weren't sure but may have decided to isolate anyways.

I'm open to comparisons with countries with proper testing regimes, but that's not us.

Pseudonym121

As to nursing homes etc. It seems that a good rule of thumb is that at least 25% of deaths are occurring in nursing homes and being missed from the figures internationally for various reasons.

Personally I just take the daily Irish figure and multiple by 1.33 to get what I assume is the actual figure. This isn’t obfuscation on the HSE’s part just the nature of people dying in a nursing home or at home before a test result comes back confirming a diagnosis.

AtomicHorror

polesheep wrote: »

But they may be sufficiently accurate for the intended purpose. Pregnancy tests come to mind as well as blood sugar tests for diabetics.

Important differences though.

Diabetics take blood sugar tests every day and are well-practiced at them, so the error rate is reduced. Diabetics are a relative minority in UK and Ireland. Consequence of a false negative or a false positive is not that significant for the wider population

Pregnancy tests have a high error rate based on user error, as well as the usual false negative and false positive error. The consequence of a false negative is that you'll realize you're pregnant when your symptoms persist and you re-test. False positive, disappointment down the line.

The risk of a false negative from a home SARS-CoV-2 antibody test is nothing much- continue isolation. The risk of a false positive is that a person who is vulnerable or possibly has contagious infection goes out into the world thinking they're bulletproof.

Multiply by 10s of millions of tests and I would be extremely worried about mass screening, even if it were administered by professionals.

marno21

A lot of the growth in Singapore is down to a cluster in a dormitory housing migrant workers in confined spaces. Unfortunately, it's going to be the same as similar outbreaks in confined spaces that are hard to control.

seamus

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

You’re entitled to enjoy a second home when doing so won’t kill others. You’re not entitled to do so when doing so en masse will, inevitably, result in more infections and more deaths.

The main issue here is not really infection spread, presuming those who go down will isolate like they have been doing at home.

It's the pressure that will be put on local services. These services would typically gear up at holiday times for increased usage, but not this year, and not for the different type of usage that a lockdown brings.

I do think the panic about this is a little overblown. Some people will chance their arms. The vast, vast majority won't. It's worth having the conversation to remind people not to go, but the hysteria about it is getting very tiresome.

The pictures posted yesterday of a choked N11 were mostly essential workers and others travelling, all held up by the single lane and a Garda checkpoint at the end of it, not a sudden rush of people going to Wexford for the weekend.

An Ciarraioch

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

As to nursing homes etc. It seems that a good rule of thumb is that at least 25% of deaths are occurring in nursing homes and being missed from the figures internationally for various reasons.

Personally I just take the daily Irish figure and multiple by 1.33 to get what I assume is the actual figure. This isn’t obfuscation on the HSE’s part just the nature of people dying in a nursing home or at home before a test result comes back confirming a diagnosis.

Except the Irish figures do include nursing home deaths.

Tokyo

Naggdefy wrote: »

I heard your holiday home is in a halting site.

Mod: @Naggdefy - Don't post in this thread again.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Oh yeah Eastern Europe , more commies. The latent xenophobia is hilarious given that every country has fudged/ fiddled numbers.

• we did more tests -> just didn't process them = fiddle
• do we even do post mortem tests on people who die from ARD
• from what I've read nursing home testing is not a priority yet the number of deaths much higher from these clusters

That makes us better?

Seamai wrote: »

What are you on about? Latent xenophobia? would you ever go take a walk for yourself and chillax. My partner is half eastern European.

You may well be right so sorry if any offence caused. I just hear a lot of different countries are different so their numbers must be different and we are great.

Eastern Europe means different things to different people. It is rarely used in a positive context.
Now I know nothing about the testing in Croatia or otherwise but I don't Your original post assumed that they must be fudging the numbers if test rate is lower. They have a land border with Italy and closed it pretty early on.

We know we are underreporting cases because we are not able to process the samples fast enough. That I do know.

Martina1991

polesheep wrote:

But they may be sufficiently accurate for the intended purpose. Pregnancy tests come to mind as well as blood sugar tests for diabetics.

Both of those have been around for many years. Controlled, tried and tested. Glucometers in particular have to be tightly controlled for the diabetic population.
Both were being performed in laboratories long before being available to the public.

This virus wasn't known until a few months ago. It would be very dangerous to bypass accurate laboratory testing, straight to the consumer.


Imagine buying a make your own insulin kit or a DIY X-ray machine. That'd be incredibly dangerous.
But people have no problem spending money on kits to diagnose themselves with diseases.

JP Liz V1

cameramonkey wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0409/1129563-national-laboratory-testing/

Testing still a huge problem,"We are down to about a third of what our original capacity was."
so down 67%.

I thought researchers here was able to make the reagent

Stheno

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I thought researchers here was able to make the reagent

No it's something called a buffer they've made here

JP Liz V1

Is there both public and private testing in ROI as I thought as with the hospitals now being equal for all, same for tests

cj maxx

speckle wrote: »

question how are going to prevent yourself acidently picking up virus at the petrol station from eg. a formite or pass it on to others unwittingly? How do expect to be contact traced if you do so?

The same you do if you're going to the shop next door.
Gloves, social distancing and sanitiser/ wash hands.
In fact it's very easy to contact trace. I left X , arrived at Y and only stopped at Z.
I seen no one only the shop clerk from a safe distance.
Easy peasy

Pseudonym121

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Important differences though.

Diabetics take blood sugar tests every day and are well-practiced at them, so the error rate is reduced. Diabetics are a relative minority in UK and Ireland. Consequence of a false negative or a false positive is not that significant for the wider population

Pregnancy tests have a high error rate based on user error, as well as the usual false negative and false positive error. The consequence of a false negative is that you'll realize you're pregnant when your symptoms persist and you re-test. False positive, disappointment down the line.

The risk of a false negative from a home SARS-CoV-2 antibody test is nothing much- continue isolation. The risk of a false positive is that a person who is vulnerable or possibly has contagious infection goes out into the world thinking they're bulletproof.

Multiply by 10s of millions of tests and I would be extremely worried about mass screening, even if it were administered by professionals.

initial section of reply removed as it referred to pcr tests and not antibody tests. I had misread the initial post.

As to the risk of incorrect results. WelL they can be mitigated by good test design and administering the test severe times. An 80% accurate test will get 20% wrong the first time. Run it again and youll reduce that to maybe 4% where both test are wrong and 32% where the two tests disagree etc.

As a first line of testing even a relatively in accurate test has value of it is supported by government advice and integrated into a phased testing programme. And we would find an 80% accurate test to be very poor. We would aim for something at 90% or above for home testing - even in these circumstances.

Pseudonym121

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Except the Irish figures do include nursing home deaths.

Only where the person is confirmed to have had COVID-19 and then died.

If they died but COVID-19 test results are still awaited then they are not included in the HSE figures.

The devil, in statistics and epidemiology, is very much in the details. And I refer you to admitted delays in receiving test results and ask you to consider how many people who were in nursing homes were tested, haven’t had their tests processed and have died in the meantime.