CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

wakka12

I cant believe the amount of deaths in Scotland the last few days. 70-80 deaths every day the last few days, that is surely one of the highest number of deaths per capita in the world considering the country only has a size of 5 million? If it was the same size as Italy and France it would be the equivalent of it reporting almost 1,000 deaths daily the last 4 days in a row

Ireland has gotten off so lightly, every single one of our neighbouring countries are being absolutely devastated

polesheep

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Important differences though.

Diabetics take blood sugar tests every day and are well-practiced at them, so the error rate is reduced. Diabetics are a relative minority in UK and Ireland. Consequence of a false negative or a false positive is not that significant for the wider population

Pregnancy tests have a high error rate based on user error, as well as the usual false negative and false positive error. The consequence of a false negative is that you'll realize you're pregnant when your symptoms persist and you re-test. False positive, disappointment down the line.

The risk of a false negative from a home SARS-CoV-2 antibody test is nothing much- continue isolation. The risk of a false positive is that a person who is vulnerable or possibly has contagious infection goes out into the world thinking they're bulletproof.

Multiply by 10s of millions of tests and I would be extremely worried about mass screening, even if it were administered by professionals.

The thinking behind your post could be applied to just about anything in life. For example, I could worry that a percentage of the cars belting along the motorway might have faulty brakes. If a home test for antibodies is produced that gives reliable results within an acceptable margin of error, then there is no reason not to use it. It can always be backed up by high quality lab tests on random samples to confirm accuracy.

polesheep

marno21 wrote: »

Impressive recovery from a 107 year old in the Netherlands

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1248225575166193664

She refused to pop her clogs. Fair dues to her.

auspicious

marno21 wrote: »

Impressive recovery from a 107 year old in the Netherlands

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1248225575166193664

That's great news.
But do we know why she found it easier to overcome? Was it down to low blood pressure, no heart disease, something special included or excluded from the diet?
It's still early day's yet I know to have a detailed breakdown of varying survivors and I hope plenty will waive their anonymity to their confidential medical history.

threeball

wakka12 wrote: »

I cant believe the amount of deaths in Scotland the last few days. 70-80 deaths every day the last few days, that is surely one of the highest number of deaths per capita in the world considering the country only has a size of 5 million? If it was the same size as Italy and France it would be the equivalent of it reporting almost 1,000 deaths daily the last 4 days in a row

It followed the UK model religiously so if, as some people want to argue, that was a correct course of action and the rest can be explained away by population density etc. then you only need to look to scotland for the counter argument.

cameramonkey

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Survived WW1, great Depression, WW2 when famine was common in Netherlands and now Covid19 as well as numerous other flus and the like.

Hugely impressive.

Superwoman.

AtomicHorror

polesheep wrote: »

The thinking behind your post could be applied to just about anything in life. For example, I could worry that a percentage of the cars belting along the motorway might have faulty brakes. If a home test for antibodies is produced that gives reliable results within an acceptable margin of error, then there is no reason not to use it. It can always be backed up by high quality lab tests on random samples to confirm accuracy.

My point is that the margin of error on most diagnostic tests is relatively large, and certainly larger than the rate of brake failure. This is because most tests are designed for use in smaller numbers and in contexts where the false negative and positives will be managed to reduce risk. The problem is not the tests, the problem is rolling the tests out to a larger population than they were designed for and then allowing people to make risky decisions based on them.

This is a well known issue in mass screenings, which is why screening programs are usually managed in close consultation with healthcare professionals, or are sometimes simply not rolled out due to the error rate doing more harm than good. For the classic example, see PSA screening for prostate cancer, a disease that happens to be in my family and which I am at particular risk from.

https://www.mariekeating.ie/cancer-information/prostate-cancer/screening-for-prostate-cancer/

speckle

AtomicHorror wrote: »

It would never have left bats in the first place, it's in both species. It may do better in one or other host, but it doesn't leave one to go to another.

thanks, maybe I should have phrased it using humans. Bat infects a different type of animal say a poor pagolin. then jumps to a human which infects another and so on.
along the way we have some small mutations first in the animals then humans, then maybe it diverges into definite strains in humans. Say a north and south pole strain. North pole nastier strain dies out no susceptable humans left for many different reasons. South pole strain not so nasty continues on it way but still mutates slowly. We learn to accept it as part of life. but could that Southpole strain still mutate yet again into the future to either an even milder strain or up a level nastier? Or dissapear into the permafrost to reappear centurys later.
by the way thanks all for your answers

threeball

polesheep wrote: »

She refused to pop her clogs. Fair dues to her.

They are a tough generation. You won't see anything like them again. No one will have the longevitity that they have going foward unless they're held together by the medical system. Our new lifestyles are just too poor. Delighted to see people like this pull through.

AtomicHorror

speckle wrote: »

thanks, maybe I should have phrased it using humans. Bat infects a different type of animal say a poor pagolin. then jumps to a human which infects another and so on.
along the way we have some small mutations first in the animals then humans, then maybe it diverges into definite strains in humans. Say a north and south pole strain. North pole nastier strain dies out no susceptable humans left for many different reasons. South pole strain not so nasty continues on it way but still mutates slowly. We learn to accept it as part of life. but could that Southpole strain still mutate yet again into the future to either an even milder strain or up a level nastier? Or dissapear into the permafrost to reappear centurys later.

Maybe, yes. But critically, unlike bacteria, viruses cannot mutate if they're not actively infecting a host. So if they have no hosts, they are inert. Viruses in permafrost, assuming they can remain viable, will not mutate at all.

New Home

auspicious wrote: »

That's great news.
But do we know why she found it easier to overcome? Was it down to low blood pressure, no heart disease, something special included or excluded from the diet?
It's still early day's yet I know to have a detailed breakdown of varying survivors and I hope plenty will waive their anonymity to their confidential medical history.

Based on the stats available, it appears that people >90 are less at risk of dying for this than people in their 70s and 80s.

threeball

speckle wrote: »

thanks, maybe I should have phrased it using humans. Bat infects a different type of animal say a poor pagolin. then jumps to a human which infects another and so on.
along the way we have some small mutations first in the animals then humans, then maybe it diverges into definite strains in humans. Say a north and south pole strain. North pole nastier strain dies out no susceptable humans left for many different reasons. South pole strain not so nasty continues on it way but still mutates slowly. We learn to accept it as part of life. but could that Southpole strain still mutate yet again into the future to either an even milder strain or up a level nastier? Or dissapear into the permafrost to reappear centurys later.

All of the above. It can mutate to a more agressive form or a less agressive. Normally less aggressive as killing the host isn't productive for the virus. It can also disappear into the permafrost and its recently become a big worry due to global warming. Viruses from centuries or millenia ago getting released back to the atmosphere after being buried in Ice. We don't know whats down there but its more likely not good.

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170504-there-are-diseases-hidden-in-ice-and-they-are-waking-up

Tony EH

splinter65 wrote: »

I never said it was a left wing country. It’s not. If they had just accepted that Trump was elected fair and square and that Clinton had been rejected then they had 4 years to find amongst themselves some candidates that the people who voted for a trump could’ve possibly vote for. None of those people were ever going to vote for Elizabeth Warren or Beto O’Rourke etc and telling them that they were racist/homophobic/bigoted etc was not going to change their minds.
There has to have been some less left more middle of the road candidates then that. What a mess.

Neither Warren or O'Rourke are left wing in any real sense. In fact, Warren was a Republican voter for most of her life. There is no real left wing in America. It's a mulch of middle grounder neo-liberals in the Democratic Party and mixture right wing neo-liberals in the Republican Party.

Both parties are beholden to "markets" and only pay lip service to actual left wing policy. Each of them are essentially flavours of modern nouveaux conservative, free market, thinking that's about the redistribution of national and international wealth upwards.

The DNC have now twice gone out of their way to scupper a presidential campaign by Sanders, who is their only real (mildly) leftish ticket, which says everything about that party's supposed "left wing" credentials.

polesheep

AtomicHorror wrote: »

My point is that the margin of error on most diagnostic tests is relatively large, and certainly larger than the rate of brake failure. This is because most tests are designed for use in smaller numbers and in contexts where the false negative and positives will be managed to reduce risk. The problem is not the tests, the problem is rolling the tests out to a larger population than they were designed for and then allowing people to make risky decisions based on them.

This is a well known issue in mass screenings, which is why screening programs are usually managed in close consultation with healthcare professionals, or are sometimes simply not rolled out due to the error rate doing more harm than good. For the classic example, see PSA screening for prostate cancer, a disease that happens to be in my family and which I am at particular risk from.

https://www.mariekeating.ie/cancer-information/prostate-cancer/screening-for-prostate-cancer/

I take your point, but sometimes it is better to do something rather than nothing. If a test allows us to send people back into society in the knowledge that even 'some' of them have antibodies then we can a degree of confidence that we are at least looking at a reduced risk, because we will soon be sending people back into society one way or the other.

Hobgoblin11

threeball wrote: »

All of the above. It can mutate to a more agressive form or a less agressive. Normally less aggressive as killing the host isn't productive for the virus. It can also disappear into the permafrost and its recently become a big worry due to global warming. Viruses from centuries or millenia ago getting released back to the atmosphere after being buried in Ice. We don't know whats down there but its more likely not good.

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170504-there-are-diseases-hidden-in-ice-and-they-are-waking-up

bring it on! We'll have all the hand sanitizer and masks in the future for these viruses

threeball

New Home wrote: »

Based on the stats available, it appears that people >90 are less at risk of dying for this than people in their 70s and 80s.

I assume thats because you can get to your 70s held together with sticky tape but to make it to 90+ you have to be fairly healthy.

Wolf359f

wakka12 wrote: »

I cant believe the amount of deaths in Scotland the last few days. 70-80 deaths every day the last few days, that is surely one of the highest number of deaths per capita in the world considering the country only has a size of 5 million? If it was the same size as Italy and France it would be the equivalent of it reporting almost 1,000 deaths daily the last 4 days in a row

Ireland has gotten off so lightly, every single one of our neighbouring countries are being absolutely devastated

Scotland have started including figures of anyone who dies and tests/tested positive for Covid19, the same as Ireland. I'm hoping the big increases recently for Scotland, is just a backlog of deaths being added to the figures.

podgeandrodge

Cw85 wrote: »

I think the middle of May should see some restrictions. Fingers crossed anyway I've a holiday to Greece on the 4th of June and am holding on to any hope I can

I hope you get going, but I think you are being extremely optimistic. Extremely.

Sofiztikated

The spread of the virus depends on 2 things:

1. How dense the population is.

2. How dense the population is.

AtomicHorror

Tony EH wrote: »

Neither Warren or O'Rourke are left wing in any real sense. In fact, Warren was a Republican voter for most of her life. There is no real left wing in America. It's a mulch of middle grounder neo-liberals in the Democratic Party and mixture right wing neo-liberals in the Republican Party.

Both parties are beholden to "markets" and only pay lip service to actual left wing policy. Each of them are essentially flavours of modern nouveaux conservative, free market, thinking that's about the redistribution of national and international wealth upwards.

The DNC have now twice gone out of their way to scupper a presidential campaign by Sanders, who is their only real (mildly) leftish ticket, which says everything about that party supposed "left wing" credentials.

Not sure you're using the term "neo-liberal" correctly there. Neo-liberalism is on the right wing of economic policy- free market stuff.

AtomicHorror

polesheep wrote: »

I take your point, but sometimes it is better to do something rather than nothing. If a test allows us to send people back into society in the knowledge that even 'some' of them have antibodies then we can a degree of confidence that we are at least looking at a reduced risk, because we will soon be sending people back into society one way or the other.

Yeah, but also sometimes it is better to do nothing rather than the only wrong something available. That's certainly the case for PSA screening, and it may also be the case for SARS-CoV-2 IgG testing. They need to be hugely careful rolling that out, and right now there is enormous pressure from the public and political donors to "do something". That's a very dangerous mix that will increase the risk of irrational decision making.

is_that_so

Interesting how Americans have rediscovered phone calls in all of this.

The volume of phone calls has surged more than internet use as people want to hear each other’s voices in the pandemic.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/technology/phone-calls-voice-virus.html

Tony EH

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Not sure you're using the term "neo-liberal" correctly there. Neo-liberalism is on the right wing of economic policy- free market stuff.

I know what it is. The point is that there are neo-liberal thinkers in each of America's parties. Both of them are basically the same, despite the pretence of "left" and "right".

Just Saying

Wolf359f wrote: »

Scotland have started including figures of anyone who dies and tests/tested positive for Covid19, the same as Ireland. I'm hoping the big increases recently for Scotland, is just a backlog of deaths being added to the figures.

I would be hoping so also.

At least Scotland is trying to report nursing home deaths the daily figures for England are hospital only.I see todays figure shows 57 of them took place in March.Only 140 were yesterday with the balance from April 1st to 7th.

I know there is always a time lag between a death and reporting the cause of death but those figures indicate that many people dying today will not be reported in the death figures until next week.

Maybe I'm wrong but I would hope our figures are more current.

caveat emptor

Sofiztikated wrote: »

The spread of the virus depends on 2 things:

1. How dense the population is.

2. How dense the population is.

Drop the mic, post of the day!

auspicious

threeball wrote: »

I assume thats because you can get to your 70s held together with sticky tape but to make it to 90+ you have to be fairly healthy.

Seems to me some of the longest lived groups don't eat animal products.

wakka12

Took 8 weeks for global death toll to reach 10,000 and will reach 100,000 tomorrow just 3 weeks after reaching 10k

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If you are an island it doesn't matter if you are 10 hours or 30 minutes from the nearest landmass. Being an island means you have far more limited entry points to deal with. Enabling you to better control the ones you do have. You won't stop everyone, but you will reduce people coming in substantially with the right measures and those who do come in you can better isolate.

Its almost like many people don't want to do anything to stop the spread of covid19 at this stage. Can't do this, can't do that. No point stopping such and such.

No wonder we are totally screwed.

It does in that the are less weekend breaks, less working across different countries etc etc

PropJoe10

I've heard today that people are being allowed in on ferries to Rosslare from the UK and France without any checks being done. Is this true? And if so, why is this being allowed?

cameramonkey

Sofiztikated wrote: »

The spread of the virus depends on 2 things:

1. How dense the population is.

2. How dense the population is.

China and Singapore have done pretty well considering their population density. The spread depends on a lot of factors beyond population density.
I get it now, my answer is half dense.