CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Beasty

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Median is not average.

Have a look at this post I made earlier in the thread

"average" covers a number of different measures, including mean and median

is_that_so

Longing wrote: »

And whats your point. Your 1 millions deaths are bad. Has is 28 today and there familys.

Yes there are, but there is the equally important public health aim to ensure the fewest number die.

Assetbacked

This weekend we will finally start to have data on the impact of the measures. It has felt like forever but we are getting there. So far the numbers give cause for much optimism given all deaths would've been as a result of transmission prior to measures being brought in so the next few days we will hopefully see how effective the measures have been.

Mental Mickey

ACitizenErased wrote: »

George Lee is ridiculously depressing

He's a headline-grabber.

stephenjmcd

They're distancing themselves from referencing a surge, if the curve is flattened they dont expect a surge and thats the goal

KindOfIrish

Longing wrote: »

And whats your point. Your 1 millions deaths are bad. Has is 28 today and there familys.

No question that on a personal level every death is a tragedy. But from statistic point of view nothing extraordinary is happening.

wakka12

I assume the 'transmission rate of 1' figure is calculated by tracing a number of close contacts of an infected individual and generally theyve found that usually one of their close contacts also caught it from them

Ace2007

EDit wrote: »

Do we really need a daily argument over the definition of median?

We do if people see Median age is 80 and then automatically assume that everyone that has died was on the way out as the average is 80, when i reality you could have ten people in their 20's in the median age figure.

Nonoperational

From an ICU and hospital capacity point of view it is busy but not disastrous. The standard ICUs are filling up but it’s still at the point of using HDU as extra capacity. That is essentially the first phase of the icu expansion plan. Moving to converted wards etc adds lots of capacity but we don’t need to do that yet.

Of note we extubated 3 people in the past few days and they left ICU. Some positivity at least.

owlbethere

I missed today's briefing. I got the number of cases and the death numbers - them numbers - fcuking hell.

What did I miss with the briefing? Was there anything important?

marno21

If the measured basic reproduction rate is 1 or below as they said today that's excellent news. There will be a lag before we see the good news become a trend in the case figures but it's a good place to start given the dearth of positive news we've been experiencing over the last number of days.

Pitch n Putt

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

?? We are expecting peak in next 5 days. Cases positive are irrelevant at present due to testing mg issues. We look at deaths. Hope peak arrives within 5 days abs will see downward trend. Lockdown impact on death rate is about 3 to 4 weeks.

This is turning into a bit of a mess now.
Peak always seems to be two weeks away.

It’s obvious now that the government and advisory committee made a bad call with the current lockdown.

There’s too many people working and on the move.

This needed the hard lockdown two weeks ago. Medical ,carers and food distribution and supermarkets only.
Everything else should have been stopped two weeks ago.

We’re going to be messing around with a half arsed lockdown for 6 months at the way things are going now.

What they are trying to do by keeping non essential so called essential businesses open is like trying to shove water up a hill in regards suppressing the virus.

I reckon another 3-4 weeks and people will just have enough of this soft route with no end in sight

keynes

EDit wrote: »

Do we really need a daily argument over the definition of median?

It would be great if the gov came clean with the death stats rather than deliberating obfuscating and biasing the age stats upwards

normanoffside

Ace2007 wrote: »

We do if people see Median age is 80 and then automatically assume that everyone that has died was on the way out as the average is 80, when i reality you could have ten people in their 20's in the median age figure.

Just talk about the mean age then rather than the 'average'.

r93kaey5p2izun

I think we just have to accept that there are different meanings for the word average, whether scientific or colloquial. Some sources refer to average as interchangeable with measures of central tendency, and therefore use it to encompass mean, median and mode. Others pin average as just being the mean. People just need to stick with more precise language as much as possible and accept there's a lot of variation in how the word average is interpreted and used. By all means seek clarity on whether it is mean or median being quoted, but it's not helpful to keep having the same debate over whether the word average is being used correctly or not.

Mental Mickey

owlbethere wrote: »

I missed today's briefing. I got the number of cases and the death numbers - them numbers - fcuking hell.

What did I miss with the briefing? Was there anything important?

It's on RTE news now

tobefrank321

Philip Nolan said for every 5 cases we detect there are 5 we don't detect.

So the real number of new cases today is 1000.

Not my stats, theirs.

ACitizenErased

That 51000 number cannot be true based on what Colm Henry just said.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

*Clicks into main Covid thread for the first time in weeks*

*Sees trolls still thriving*

*Sees Beasty's latest post*

Beasty is doing a sterling job, I applaud him. Those petty cranks will have to divert their impotent rage elsewhere.

Sober Crappy Chemis

EDit wrote: »

Do we really need a daily argument over the definition of median?

Speaking as a pedantic mathematician, yes - absolutely.

froog

ireland are now 13th in the world for deaths per capita. taking out the micro countries we are 10th.

bekker

Ace2007 wrote: »

For those who don't understand the median number - below examples might help

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 90 86 85 84 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 40 38 35 33 32 31

The medium in the above list of numbers is 84, the average is 69.

The medium in the below list of numbers is 84, the average is 86.

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 90 86 85 84 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83

In the 'above' set of values the median is 84.5.

You have an even number of values so median is the average of the two middle values.

Strazdas

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They're distancing themselves from referencing a surge, if the curve is flattened they dont expect a surge and thats the goal

Yes, if you have a very flat curve, you can't actually have a 'peak' or 'surge'.

igCorcaigh

NH2013 wrote: »

No, median is not an average.

Median is the middle value when all numbers are organised and sorted according to size. Median of 5,9,16 is 9.

Mean/Average is all the values added together and then divided by the total number of values counted. Mean/Average of 5,9,16 is 10.

This is primary school stuff.

They're both different averages.
An average is a way of measuring a set.
Eg mean, mode, median.
All averages.

But people tend to use the word average in everyday language to describe the mean.

stephenjmcd

Nonoperational wrote: »

From an ICU and hospital capacity point of view it is busy but not disastrous. The standard ICUs are filling up but it’s still at the point of using HDU as extra capacity. That is essentially the first phase of the icu expansion plan. Moving to converted wards etc adds lots of capacity but we don’t need to do that yet.

Of note we extubated 3 people in the past few days and they left ICU. Some positivity at least.

Great to hear, thank you for all the work you and your colleagues do

Tea Shock

Some interesting stats based on reported Covid19 attributed deaths so far:

Rep. Ireland: 1 death per 18.6k citizens
N. Ireland: 1 death per 22.9k citizens
All of UK: 1 death per 9.4k citizens
USA: 1 death per 20.7k citizens
Italy: 1 death per 3.3k citizens
Spain: 1 death per 3k citizens
France: 1 death per 6.2k citizens
Germany: 1 death per 35.3k citizens
Sweden: 1 death per 12.9k citizens
Netherlands: 1 death per 7.2k citizens
China: 1 death per 415.6k citizens

marno21

Some posters need to be more specific when talking about "peaks".

Which peak is it?

1. Peak daily infections
2. Peak daily confirmed cases
3. Peak daily ICU admissions
4. Peak daily deaths

These all happen at different stages. We would hope we are roughly at Peak 1 now. Peak 3 and 4 are several weeks after Peak 1.

Jinglejangle69

Michael Martin better be right with they tweet or he can feck off triyng to score political points with fake news.

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That 51000 number cannot be true based on what Colm Henry just said.

Yeah not a chance. About 2k he said being referred for testing each day and they have enough centres and swabs to do the tests

flazio

To explain median.
25 people died in a day, the median was 81.
12 people who died were under 81 years of age and 12 people were above 81 years of age. That could be any age between a newborn and the oldest living person in Ireland.