CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Cork Boy 53

NDWC wrote: »

The 51,000 figure has to be BS surely

It seems to be accurate.

Beasty

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That 51000 number cannot be true based on what Colm Henry just said.

Even if they ever did get up to 5,000 a day most of that backlog will be over it by the time they get tested, although at this rate it could be 100,000 in another week or so (given they scrapped the last list early last week and started afresh)

helimachoptor

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

So 15,000 tests a day and the contact tracing app is never going to materialise

It's so Irish, ffs can they not stick to what they said they'd do

wakka12

Ireland has overtaken both Iran and the US in number of deaths per capita, it is one of the highest in the world

Harry Palmr

marno21 wrote: »

If the measured basic reproduction rate is 1 or below as they said today that's excellent news. There will be a lag before we see the good news become a trend in the case figures but it's a good place to start given the dearth of positive news we've been experiencing over the last number of days.

We're not - the reproduction rate is just above 1. As long as it's not below one the rise will continue unabated - the rate of rise would be the only variable.

Mental Mickey

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Michael Martin better be right with they tweet or he can feck off triyng to score political points with fake news.

What tweet

EDit

Nonoperational wrote: »

From an ICU and hospital capacity point of view it is busy but not disastrous. The standard ICUs are filling up but it’s still at the point of using HDU as extra capacity. That is essentially the first phase of the icu expansion plan. Moving to converted wards etc adds lots of capacity but we don’t need to do that yet.

Of note we extubated 3 people in the past few days and they left ICU. Some positivity at least.

Are the numbers announced for ICUs the total for all diseases or just those with COVID-19?

ACitizenErased

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

It seems to be accurate.

They just said testing centres are empty because there’s no backlog.

Martina1991

bekker wrote:

Why say it's a sham, it used to be know as the Alere before bought out by Abbott and rebranded in'19 as ID Now. Abbott Labs is not exactly a fly-by-night operation. The Alere i was in uses for 'flu testing in '17.

My comment was more to do with the process they're setting up rather than the little analyser itself. Although i have read reports that that particular model has a sensitivity rate of only 60%.

Pharmacists performing diagnostic testing in a car park in the 40 degree heat of an Arizona summer is ridiculous.

Ace2007

wakka12 wrote: »

Ireland has overtaken both Iran and the US in number of deaths per capita

Yes but unlike other countries, Ireland is counting those who die outside of a hospital setting in their numbers.

Arghus

Lads, they all have lovely medians.

Sober Crappy Chemis

flazio wrote: »

To explain median.
25 people died in a day, the median was 81.
12 people who died were under 81 years of age and 12 people were above 81 years of age. That could be any age between a newborn and the oldest living person in Ireland.

Which is why they should be publishing mean, mode, median and standard deviation !

stephenjmcd

Beasty wrote: »

Even if they ever did get up to 5,000 a day most of that backlog will be over it by the time they get tested, although at this rate it could be 100,000 in another week or so (given they scrapped the last list early last week and started afresh)

Its not the number of tests being processed, martin said 51k waiting and what's been said here is there isn't an issue with waiting times, they are able to accommodate the current average of 2k per day. So I don't see where the 51k is coming from.

They literally just said test centres are empty because they dont have the demand

Jinglejangle69

wakka12 wrote: »

Ireland has overtaken both Iran and the US in number of deaths per capita, it is one of the highest in the world

Yeah I wouldn't trust death numbers coming out from either of those countries.

Nermal

wakka12 wrote: »

Personally I think 1 is alarmingly high considering the level of restrictions to normal life right now

Indeed. As soon as the lockdown is lifted it will just go back up again. What are people celebrating? Temporarily halting infection at a gargantuan cost?

Harry Palmr

Some of us regard plant nurseries as essential! Certainly more so than an offie

marno21

Harry Palmr wrote: »

We're not - the reproduction rate is just above 1. As long as it's not below one the rise will continue unabated - the rate of rise would be the only variable.

My apologies - I misread that post.

We are going in the right direction at least.

Wibbs

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Yeah I wouldn't trust death numbers coming out from either of those countries.

Neither would I JJ, but we are still too damned high.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

facehugger99 wrote: »

The death figures are the biggest con-job.

The vast majority of these people have just reached the end of their very long natural lifespans.

What information are you privy to that says those people were near the end? Just because somebody is 84 doesn’t mean they were ready to croak.

Strazdas

marno21 wrote: »

Some posters need to be more specific when talking about "peaks".

Which peak is it?

1. Peak daily infections
2. Peak daily confirmed cases
3. Peak daily ICU admissions
4. Peak daily deaths

These all happen at different stages. We would hope we are roughly at Peak 1 now. Peak 3 and 4 are several weeks after Peak 1.

Professor Nolan at the briefing seemed to indicate that a peak would be new daily cases, that would be his definition.

easypazz

Longing wrote: »

Some posters here should be ashamed of themselves. Saying death figures are not bad. One death is bad.

Get over yourself.

Of course we would rather no virus at all, but the death figures are not bad compared to other countries, we are not getting hammered in the hospitals, so overall the numbers are not bad.

The object of the exercise is not to have ICU over run and doctors having to decide who to save or not. On that front we are doing well.

FLOOPER

thebaz wrote: »

The anti body test was supposed to be ready now (early April) - but ther was obviously a problem with quality as it has been rolled forward at least a month until early May - the test needs to be accurate for obvious reasons , particularly if you tell medical staff they can integrate with all patients -

Hopefully when the test is rolled out to general population, after medics, we will get a proper indication of real mortality rate of virus, and how many of us may have actually had virus , but were assymptomatic - this rate was around 50% in large Iceland tests.

f

That’s crazy re Iceland. Can you link the original article.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Arghus wrote: »

Yeah, but it's still moving in the wrong direction again after a few days of relatively stable numbers. How can you spin that as positive?

Because things won’t be linear. I don’t know why anyone would expect that. The overall trend is the important thing.

Wombatman

100,000 new cases per day. LO Fooking L wat?

We can't even do 100,000 tests a week.

Never going to happen.


Whip out a baseless model that looks awful lads.

Try to change the mindset from we could be doing a lot better to a mindset of "100,000 a day :eek:. Sure we are not doing too bad so"

ZX7R

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its not the number of tests being processed, martin said 51k waiting and what's been said here is there isn't an issue with waiting times, they are able to accommodate the current average of 2k per day. So I don't see where the 51k is coming from.

They literally just said test centres are empty because they dont have the demand

Is it not 51k from the old criteria of testing still waiting to be swabed.
And current figures represent the current criteria for testing

boardise

ACitizenErased wrote: »

George Lee is ridiculously depressing

Was this one of his good days then ?

thebaz

Tea Shock wrote: »

Some interesting stats based on reported Covid19 attributed deaths so far:

Rep. Ireland: 1 death per 18.6k citizens
N. Ireland: 1 death per 22.9k citizens
All of UK: 1 death per 9.4k citizens
USA: 1 death per 20.7k citizens
Italy: 1 death per 3.3k citizens
Spain: 1 death per 3k citizens
France: 1 death per 6.2k citizens
Germany: 1 death per 35.3k citizens
Sweden: 1 death per 12.9k citizens
Netherlands: 1 death per 7.2k citizens
China: 1 death per 415.6k citizens

and for all those wanting more extereme lockdowns - look at Sweden - where they are just asking its citizens to behave like adults, and social distance , and keep some form of normality and economy running - just saying, as ther are going to be a lot more secondary casualities from this crisis - the economic casualties and ensuing mental health avalanche and people with other illnesses that are not getting treated, forgotten casualities.

Just Saying

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its not the number of tests being processed, martin said 51k waiting and what's been said here is there isn't an issue with waiting times, they are able to accommodate the current average of 2k per day. So I don't see where the 51k is coming from

Is the 51k coming from people who were referred for tests under the old criteria but who are not qualified for a test under the new.
If that is the case then most of these people will either have had it and recovered or not had it at all.Anyone who was ill and went to hospital would have been tested then.

autumnbelle

What did he answer to garden centres and hardware essential or non essential

normanoffside

Strazdas wrote: »

Professor Nolan at the briefing seemed to indicate that a peak would be new daily cases, that would be his definition.

But
a) If they test more they will get more positives.
b) if they relax rules for testing they will get more positives
b) if the results coming in day by day are a mixture of people tested a week ago and others coming back after a month from Germany.

Then the statistics really mean nothing and we won't know when the peak was.