CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Cork Boy 53

ACitizenErased wrote: »

They just said testing centres are empty because there’s no backlog.

So why did Micheal Martin tweet that there are 51000 waiting for tests? Someone is telling porkies.

gazump123

Regarding the mean and median, I imagine the data for the age of people dying is somewhat bell-shaped and negatively skewed. If this is the case the median is the right measure to use.

autumnbelle

autumnbelle wrote: »

What did he answer to garden centres and hardware essential or non essential

Non essential in his opinion.

I would imagine that applies to wodies and the like, builders providers can provide plummeting/electrical fixtures for emergencies if they want

speckle

Nonoperational wrote: »

From an ICU and hospital capacity point of view it is busy but not disastrous. The standard ICUs are filling up but it’s still at the point of using HDU as extra capacity. That is essentially the first phase of the icu expansion plan. Moving to converted wards etc adds lots of capacity but we don’t need to do that yet.

Of note we extubated 3 people in the past few days and they left ICU. Some positivity at least.

Thats great news for them and their familys. and for you and the staff also. well done. big hugs to you all from a distance.

owlbethere

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Michael Martin better be right with they tweet or he can feck off triyng to score political points with fake news.

What is he saying?

Achasanai

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Because things won’t be linear. I don’t know why anyone would expect that. The overall trend is the important thing.

Yeah, we've had spikes before. Hopefully this is one of them.

Strazdas

Wombatman wrote: »

100,000 new cases per day. LO Fooking L wat?

We can't even do 100,000 tests a week.

Never going to happen.


Whip out a baseless model that looks awful lads.

Try to change the mindset from we could be doing a lot better to a mindset of "100,000 a day :eek:. Sure we are not doing too bad so"

It's definitely plausible : around 800k were infected in Ireland with the Spanish Flu from a population of only 3m.

That would translate to something like 1.25m cases in 2020.

stephenjmcd

ZX7R wrote: »

Is it not 51k from the old criteria of testing still waiting to be swabed.
And current figures represent the current criteria for testing

The old criteria all had their tests cancelled and had to speak to the GP again. They're saying it's about 2k a day being sent for testing

take everything

keynes wrote: »

A complete joke statistic given we have no idea how many are infected. Another useless "expert", this Nolan, who has already embarrassed himself with his 15000 March stat

Are you saying that we have no way of knowing if the hospital system here would have been overwhelmed if we took no mitigation measures since we don't know the true number of people infected (asymptomatic and symptomatic).

Have you seen Italy and New York.

I think what you're saying is that we have no way of knowing if the growth is exponential or not because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how many people are infected.

But up to now at least there has been growth in terms of confirmed cases and in terms of ICU admissions. That alone suggests it's greater than 1.

So still on an exponential trajectory.
Irrespective of whether we have complete knowledge or not (since I'm assuming the proportion of symptomatic to total cases wouldn't change; or total ICU admissions to total cases wouldn't change).

Your reasoning makes no sense.

More bluntly, have you seen New York and Italy.

Wibbs

Interesting findings about the unusually high viral loads in the throats of covid infected people, including asymptomatic ones. Link here to the Irish Times.

Prof Luke O’Neill of Trinity College Dublin.

“It means it is very transmissible just by talking. You don’t need to cough,” he said. Also, people without symptoms, “are very infectious,” he added.

Which kinda answers the notions earlier about the small risk of just talking near someone with this is. All I can say is I'm glad I've been wearing masks for the last fortnight and glad to see others doing so when I have. I've also been wiping down my shopping, which I thought "ah hang on, you're losing it here Ted". Now I might well catch this vile dose and I'l,l be happy to take the "na na I told you so" , but it won't be from want of trying not to, or being concerned about passing it to someone else.

JP Liz V1

kilkenny31 wrote: »

We most certainly are. A steep curve would have went 10 20 40 80 160 people dying per day we have maxed out in aroudn the 30 mark. Now there will be days that that's up or down but we have most defiantly flattened the curve.

But we have tests and results huge delays but still high positive cases even though lockdown restrictions

fritzelly

51k figure is wrong doc confirms

ACitizenErased

51,000 figure is wrong they’ve confirmed

frillyleaf

thebaz wrote: »

and for all those wanting more extereme lockdowns - look at Sweden - where they are just asking its citizens to behave like adults, and social distance , and keep some form of normality and economy running - just saying, as ther are going to be a lot more secondary casualities from this crisis - the economic casualties and ensuing mental health avalanche and people with other illnesses that are not getting treated, forgotten casualities.

I wonder do Swedish conform to what is being asked more than here? Plenty of people breaking guidelines here and not your typical person you’d expect. Sweden’s healthcare system may have the capacity to handle this much better than ours. From what I’ve seen being reported ours seems to be very stretched on a normal day never mind which a highly contagious disease. We didn’t even have sufficient PPE gear until recently, I doubt this was the case in Sweden

tobefrank321

At some stage Holohan talked about the German tests. He said somethong like 2300 tests were processed with 400 positives. Is that in total? Or just for today.

Our own NVRL have said they can now only process about 1/3rd of their capacity due to reagent shortage.

I wish the figures were presented in a more clearcut way.

This is all over the place. How can they model based on this?

Wolf359f

keynes wrote: »

A complete joke statistic given we have no idea how many are infected. Another useless "expert", this Nolan, who has already embarrassed himself with his 15000 March stat

If our rate of f growth during March was the same as Spain, we would have had 18,000 cases, the 15,000 is standard exponential growth in a pandemic. So they didn't just pluck that number out of thin air.

easypazz

Ace2007 wrote: »

We do if people see Median age is 80 and then automatically assume that everyone that has died was on the way out as the average is 80, when i reality you could have ten people in their 20's in the median age figure.

But we know we won't though. Over 70's are being told to cocoon for a reason.

Maybe give us all the ages of the dead each day.

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1248300245676679169?s=21

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1248301209255129103?s=21

Cops need to crack down hard on people travelling this weekend

Selfish

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

51,000 figure is wrong they’ve confirmed

Who confirmed it ? Sorry I had turned off the press conference just before the end

RobertKK

froog wrote: »

ireland are now 13th in the world for deaths per capita. taking out the micro countries we are 10th.

Given we are an island and could have done far more early on with this virus before it became a problem and then a crisis, I think we did really badly early on, the politicians had their eye off the ball as they were concentrated on the general election and fall out, then when things could have been done, it was all left too late.
It is unfortunate the election was called when it was but it was no excuse for what followed as it most definitely has cost lives, and that is the only thing that matters, we could have saved so many lives if the eye on being on the virus rather than government formation.

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

At some stage Holohan talked about the German tests. He said somethong like 2300 tests were processed with 400 positives. Is that in total? Or just for today.

Our own NVRL have said they can now only process about 1/3rd of their capacity due to reagent shortage.

I wish the figures were presented in a more clearcut way.

If the 51,000 waiting list is true its clear we are notgoing the right way.

This is all over the place. How can they model based on this?

They just said the 51,000 figure was incorrect and they don't know where it came from

owlbethere

Wibbs wrote: »

Interesting findings about the unusually high viral loads in the throats of covid infected people, including asymptomatic ones. Link here to the Irish Times.

Prof Luke O’Neill of Trinity College Dublin.

“It means it is very transmissible just by talking. You don’t need to cough,” he said. Also, people without symptoms, “are very infectious,” he added.

Which kinda answers the notions earlier about the small risk of just talking near someone with this is. All I can say is I'm glad I've been wearing masks for the last fortnight and glad to see others doing so when I have. I've also been wiping down my shopping, which I thought "ah hang on, you're losing it here Ted". Now I might well catch this vile dose and I'l,l be happy to take the "na na I told you so" , but it won't be from want of trying not to, or being concerned about passing it to someone else.

Fcuking hell.

I was hoping for some good news today but this.

omerin

Afraid to say i dont trust them on the testing, extremely shifty. Also its human nature to be inconsistant, so if you havent been tested or are waiting 10 days for results you will be less diligent then if you received a positive test, so not buying that testing isnt the priority, and to self isolate, testing needs to be improved. They have some credit in the bank but it is quickly running out

smelly sock

Ffs 500 more cases. Not flattening at all.

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Who confirmed it ? Sorry I had turned off the press conference just before the end

Colm Henry said he has no idea where that number came from

Ace2007

thebaz wrote: »

and for all those wanting more extereme lockdowns - look at Sweden - where they are just asking its citizens to behave like adults, and social distance , and keep some form of normality and economy running - just saying, as ther are going to be a lot more secondary casualities from this crisis - the economic casualties and ensuing mental health avalanche and people with other illnesses that are not getting treated, forgotten casualities.

Is Sweden counting nursing home deaths in their numbers?

ShineOn7

A Dublin politician has posted online that ICUs in the Mater, Beaumont and Connolly are full. Can anyone confirm? (I don't wish to read all the posts in The Daily Blur thread)

If they are full, what now? Consultants start deciding that anyone over 60 doesn't get one when available?

I thought extra ICU capacity was being built?

UrbanFret

Unnecessary waffling about mean ages .How hard would it be for example to say there were 12 people in their 80s 8 people in their 70,s 5 in their 50 and 3 in their 40s. It cant be that difficult to be more specific.

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

51,000 figure is wrong they’ve confirmed

51,000 waiting, would mean even at the 6.5% positive rate, would be 800 already hospitalized, 120 in ICU on top of what we have. I'm sure they would have noticed that increase.