CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Hobgoblin11

rm212 wrote: »

Anyone else think Denmark and Austria are a bit mad to be planning to exit lockdown in the next few days? Looking at their numbers today and last few days... they don’t look anywhere near safe yet. I imagine lifting their measures will cause a huge surge in the next couple of weeks, given the amount of new and active cases currently happening with lockdown measures

The Great Danes and Austrians had better keep their borders shut or their neighbours will be complaining

rm212

wakka12 wrote: »

By looking at worldometers it does certainly look like they are still reporting a lot of new cases, but maybe we dont know the whole story, maybe it is mostly healthcare workers or people in nurshing homes or other quarantined environments that are making up most of the new cases and so they are not a risk of creating continued community spread? Who knows, Im sure they are not just going to relax restrictions willy nilly after shutting down their ecnomies for a month

Yeah I hope it’s a case of not knowing the full story, because their worldmeters numbers don’t look great. Denmark are currently in their highest range of new cases over the last few days; their peak so far.

jesus_thats_gre

rm212 wrote: »

Anyone else think Denmark and Austria are a bit mad to be planning to exit lockdown in the next few days? Looking at their numbers today and last few days... they don’t look anywhere near safe yet. I imagine lifting their measures will cause a huge surge in the next couple of weeks, given the amount of new and active cases currently happening with lockdown measures

They will reverse course very quickly I suspect.

bekker

JPCN1

RobertKK wrote: »

Are FG that stuck that only Simon Harris can be their health minister?

You might want to read a wee bit about Simon.

Frank Bullitt

bekker wrote: »

The name of that image file is very worrying.

owlbethere

fr336 wrote: »

Remember the days of this thread where most people could see what was going to happen even if we hoped it never would? Would it have been far less damaging socially and economically to have closed the borders when things were getting out of hand in Italy? Just think - now the travel industry would be on its knees but on the plus side the rest of the economy would be business as usual and no lockdowns.

This went through my mind. Its sad and ironic. The government put open borders ahead of the health of the nation. Now we have over 700000 people unemployed, an economy on its knees, probably very little flying in and out for holiday and pleasure reasons.

We would be doing better now if the borders were shut.

Vivienne23

All restrictions will have to be lifted at some point , even Ireland ,

The basic need for a lockdown is so our hospitals can cope , once we do this and numbers stagnate in our hospitals , restrictions will be lifted , with increased testing capacity we try to catch those cases quick , if we can’t do that we lockdown again until the hospitals can cope again ,rinse and repeat until we get a vaccine , this is it for the foreseeable!

igCorcaigh

tails_naf wrote: »

Genuine question, and sorry if its been asked before, i have not been keeping up with the threads so closely.

I've been locked down since the day the schools were closed. I've left the house to shop only 2 times and the other 2 times had it delivered. Wiped food packages down with soapy water, etc. Yet right now, in the last 3 days I have developed a cough and runny nose. Even if this is not coronavirus, how the hell did I catch anything being so isolated ?

It can take up to two weeks for symptoms to appear. Although I don't think a runny nose is very common with Covid. 4% of cases I think.

Do you live alone?

Jinglejangle69

owlbethere wrote: »

This went through my mind. Its sad and ironic. The government put open borders ahead of the health of the nation. Now we have over 700000 people unemployed, an economy on its knees, probably very little flying in and out for holiday and pleasure reasons.

We would be doing better now if the borders were shut.

Right so no cargo planes coming in with equipment and essentials the country needs to live?

Or Irish people trying to get home form countries who won't help them or health workers?

Cop on.

Oh and what's your solution to the NI border?

You seem to have all the answers.

Hego Damask

https://youtu.be/xY_oO31Gfuo

Jinglejangle69

If we closed our borders and done a lockdown 8 weeks ago people would have said its too early as we had practically no cases.

Then people would venture out saying it was a waste of time.

And the chance to contain the virus would have passed.

Quantum Erasure

walshb wrote: »

France’s death toll almost 1400 today....

macmahon wrote: »

What are the death stats on any average day?

about 1,590 in 2015 and 2016,
1,625 in 2017,
1,645 in 2018

Quantum Erasure

Hego Damask wrote: »

https://youtu.be/xY_oO31Gfuo

give us a clue what that is, would you?

tails_naf

tails_naf wrote: »

Genuine question, and sorry if its been asked before, i have not been keeping up with the threads so closely.

I've been locked down since the day the schools were closed. I've left the house to shop only 2 times and the other 2 times had it delivered. Wiped food packages down with soapy water, etc. Yet right now, in the last 3 days I have developed a cough and runny nose. Even if this is not coronavirus, how the hell did I catch anything being so isolated ?

runny nose is not a common symptom of CV19

Wombatman

Lee on about a nightmare scenario of 100,000 cases a day on the 9pm news. We could never have 100,000 cases a day because we don't have the testing infrastructure for. How can he be allowed to spout such rubbish.

Gael23 wrote: »

Is it conceivably possible to get the R below 1?

A better question is how is the R value calculated?

We are being told that our transmission rate is close to 1. What data feeds into the formula to calculated this? The main driver is new infections each day. For us right now this is pretty linear. Not much growth or falloff. Today was a bit of a spike but again probably down to more testing.

But why is it linear? It's only linear because of testing limitations, not because of transmission rate. We can only have a set number of new infections confirmed per day because we can only perform a set number of tests.

If results of the supposed 51K were worked up magically overnight there would be a massive jump in new infections tomorrow and hence a readjustment in the transmission rate.

Your man Nolan went on at length, about our admirable infection rate of 1, in the news conference today. Why bother when the underlying data is crap?

political analyst

OscarMIlde wrote: »

I think so. Honestly it needs to be pretty much eradicated before lockdowns can be relaxed in my opinion, or you just reverse what you worked so hard to achieve. And even then you would need to have robust quarantines for people entering the country and suspected cases to maintain the hard achieved drop in infections.

You might as well be trying to eradicate hay fever!

If the elderly and those with underlying health problems (e.g. cystic fibrosis) remain in isolation while all other people go back to normal then herd immunity will form among all other people and then the pandemic will be over in a relatively short period of time.

Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said many people who have the virus are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and recover without even knowing they had it - and so the mortality rate could be even less than 1%!

macmahon

tails_naf wrote: »

Genuine question, and sorry if its been asked before, i have not been keeping up with the threads so closely.

I've been locked down since the day the schools were closed. I've left the house to shop only 2 times and the other 2 times had it delivered. Wiped food packages down with soapy water, etc. Yet right now, in the last 3 days I have developed a cough and runny nose. Even if this is not coronavirus, how the hell did I catch anything being so isolated ?

Hayfever season babe...please don't worry so much but just check with your doc if your symptoms persist!...Im in similar circumstances so much love to ya...

beolight

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I wouldn't say that.

Everyone who comes in on a flight has to go somewhere by car or public transport such as a bus. This means they are in the community.

Lets say a relative picks them up in a car and brings them home. That relative is exposed. That relative could be an essential worker who goes on to infect work colleagues. All those work colleagues will have to isolate and give up on work for up to a month. Or that relative could work in a nursing home.

We saw in Cork in the early stages how 60 medical staff had to isolate because of exposure to 1 colleague.

It just takes a single case to cause chaos. 1 single case. The fact is we are 6 months into this and still Harris and Varadkar don't fully understand covid 19 and how it spreads, the ease of how it spreads, the exponential way it spreads and how 1 case can cause chaos.

It would be laughable if it wasn't so serious. How can we have a minister for health leading the fight who doesn't appear to understand the basics of the disease he is fighting?

It’s pure madness not to be addressing this now get the process in place now whilst numbers are low and before restrictions are eased

Jinglejangle69

Wombatman wrote: »

Lee on about a nightmare scenario of 100,000 cases a day on the 9pm news. We could never have 100,000 cases a day because we don't have the testing infrastructure for. How can he be allowed to spout such rubbish.




A better question is how is the R value calculated?

We are being told that our transmission rate is close to 1. What data feeds into the formula to calculated this? The main driver is new infections each day. For us right now this is pretty linear. Not much growth or falloff. Today was a bit of a spike but again probably down to more testing.

But why is it linear? It's only linear because of testing limitations, not because of transmission rate. We can only have a set number of new infections confirmed per day because we can only perform a set number of tests.

If results of the supposed 51K were worked up magically overnight there would be a massive jump in new infections tomorrow and hence a readjustment in the transmission rate.

Your man Nolan went on at length, about our admirable infection rate of 1, in the news conference today. Why bother when the underlying data is crap?

100,000 possible cases worst case scenario without knowing the actual number like every other country.

Seems pretty straightforward.

That's not going to happen though.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1248350431392096256?s=19

igCorcaigh

political analyst wrote: »

You might as well be trying to eradicate hay fever!

If the elderly and those with underlying health problems (e.g. cystic fibrosis) remain in isolation while all other people go back to normal then herd immunity will form among all other people and then the pandemic will be over in a relatively short period of time.

Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said many people who have the virus are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and recover without even knowing they had it - and so the mortality rate could be even less than 1%!

The ratio of cases requiring hospital care is still too high to allow the virus sweep through the population.

Doctors room ghost

Madisyn Modern Spaniel wrote: »

I felt guilty this evening. A lady in her 60s came right up beside me in the queue to enter Tesco (even in the pre-era of social restrictions, she was in my personal space). I then asked her for some space. As I queued for the till, she was ahead of me. She noticed a (very cute) baby in a pram (child no more than 5 months). She said “you are such a cute child” and tickled the child under its chin. The dad looked down awkwardly at the floor. I told her that social distancing is not just some theoretical concept, that people throughout this country are getting sick. As I was walking to my car, her and her daughter were giving me dirty looks. I feel terrible now

Nice one op.that granny is at home right now knitting a voodoo doll just like you and all them grannys can knit.dont be foolin yourself.
STAY SAFE.

macmahon

JPCN1 wrote: »

You might want to read a wee bit about Simon.

I think my children could be related to him! Long line of bankers...do ya research!
Fascinating stuff!

Hobgoblin11

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

If we closed our borders and done a lockdown 8 weeks ago people would have said its too early as we had practically no cases.

Then people would venture out saying it was a waste of time.

And the chance to contain the virus would have passed.

the term collateral damage comes to mind

JP Liz V1

Madisyn Modern Spaniel wrote: »

I felt guilty this evening. A lady in her 60s came right up beside me in the queue to enter Tesco (even in the pre-era of social restrictions, she was in my personal space). I then asked her for some space. As I queued for the till, she was ahead of me. She noticed a (very cute) baby in a pram (child no more than 5 months). She said “you are such a cute child” and tickled the child under its chin. The dad looked down awkwardly at the floor. I told her that social distancing is not just some theoretical concept, that people throughout this country are getting sick. As I was walking to my car, her and her daughter were giving me dirty looks. I feel terrible now

It is not just the young not taking any notice, do not feel guilty, law of the land now

Xertz

Madisyn Modern Spaniel wrote: »

I felt guilty this evening. A lady in her 60s came right up beside me in the queue to enter Tesco (even in the pre-era of social restrictions, she was in my personal space). I then asked her for some space. As I queued for the till, she was ahead of me. She noticed a (very cute) baby in a pram (child no more than 5 months). She said “you are such a cute child” and tickled the child under its chin. The dad looked down awkwardly at the floor. I told her that social distancing is not just some theoretical concept, that people throughout this country are getting sick. As I was walking to my car, her and her daughter were giving me dirty looks. I feel terrible now

Why would you feel terrible? If she'd tickled any 5 year old I was looking after under the chin, I'd have been livid.

Being in your 60s does not give you some god-given right to go around flouting common sense and putting people's lives in danger.

Frankly, I'm surprised people were so polite and tolerant. She just sounds like some entitled, self-righteous ignoramus to me.

statesaver

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

give us a clue what that is, would you?

Gad Saad ( Evolutionary psychologist ) talking to Paul Offit (specialising in infectious diseases, vaccines, immunology, and virology )

My Chat with Infectious Diseases Specialist Paul Offit (THE SAAD TRUTH_ 1030)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xY_oO31Gfuo&feature=youtu.be


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gad_Saad

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Offit

Paul thinks that the US are beginning to flatten the curve and Angela Merkel is the leader of the free world,

Loafing Oaf

political analyst wrote: »

If the elderly and those with underlying health problems (e.g. cystic fibrosis) remain in isolation while all other people go back to normal

Depending on how you classify 'underlying health problems' (and indeed elderly) that could be in excess of 30% of the population, probably the majority living with 'healthy' family. How are they supposed to isolate in a watertight way?

frillyleaf

derossi wrote: »

Not trying to say one thing either way but I have a family member that runs a national supermarket. This crisis has been going on for a few weeks so obviously anecdotal. Much talk about masks etc. Supermarkets have been doing social distancing etc for the last while. Talk about risks in supermarkets and I think it is again anecdotal but a good idea of how or when we as a general population can move out of this gradually.

There has been no staff off sick since the start of this. None showing symptoms currently even though they get paid while off. In a scenario where we all feel we are at risk while in there for a short time, these staff are not coming down with sickness while in there all day.

Just a thought about what is ahead.

I was saying that this earlier. It’s good news that shop staff aren’t getting it