CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Wolf359f

gabeeg wrote: »

I agree with you, they're failing all of us with their lack of transparency

they should make the data public

great point, mate

what a bunch of clowns they are

I don't think they can make all the data available, breaking down each test and when it was taken etc....
I would like to see a weekly curve with accurate cases, either the day the test was taken or the day symptoms started, so we can see a change. Adding in 100 positive cases from 2 weeks ago into today etc... Would just skew the numbers/curve.
Maybe if it looked like it was flattening, the public would be likely to let their guard down.

DelaneyIn

All EU Member States except Ireland "have since taken national decisions to implement the travel restriction."

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_616

Why is this?

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1248350431392096256?s=19

We could use something like that for greyhounds here.

DevilsHaircut

fr336 wrote: »

Remember the days of this thread where most people could see what was going to happen even if we hoped it never would? Would it have been far less damaging socially and economically to have closed the borders when things were getting out of hand in Italy? Just think - now the travel industry would be on its knees but on the plus side the rest of the economy would be business as usual and no lockdowns.

Closing the borders would not have meant business as usual for the rest of the economy.

Loafing Oaf

KerryConnor wrote: »

1% would be horrific. That is 4 people in relatively small company of 400 I work in.

Yeah even if the 'vulnerable' could be effectively quarantined (which I don't believe for a second), 1% of those remaining would be tens of thousands dying...

stephenjmcd

DelaneyIn wrote: »

All EU Member States except Ireland "have since taken national decisions to implement the travel restriction."

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_616

Why is this?

Pretty simple we aren't in the Schengen agreement

gabeeg

political analyst wrote: »

You might as well be trying to eradicate hay fever!

If the elderly and those with underlying health problems (e.g. cystic fibrosis) remain in isolation while all other people go back to normal then herd immunity will form among all other people and then the pandemic will be over in a relatively short period of time.

Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said many people who have the virus are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and recover without even knowing they had it - and so the mortality rate could be even less than 1%!

Tegnell has been criticized for his role in the mass vaccination scheme of 5 million Swedes against Swine Flu which caused about 500 patients to suffer from narcolepsy. Tegnell has been reported as saying of Pandemrix, the vaccine that had been known to cause neurological issues, that:[19][better source needed]

“ It would have been deeply unethical not to vaccinate people because hundreds of Swedes risked dying. ”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anders_Tegnell

I'm not sure we should listen to that guy

blackcard

Excluding the current crisis, the mean life expectancy of an Irish person is 82 years, males at 80 years and females at 84. I found it difficult to get any data on the median age that an Irish person does but in other countries it is about 3 years higher than the mean age so around 85 years which is what one would expect. (The mode is usually a year or two older again)

Based on the data that has been given, there does not appear to be a huge difference between the above statistics and the ages at which people have died from the coronavirus. Statistically it will probably have a relatively small effect. However, the life expectancy of an 80 year old is 8 years and this is where the most effect will be

Wolf359f

Wombatman wrote: »

No statistics on this should be hidden from the public.

ICU admissions will flatten when capacity is reached.

Over the last 7 days the death rate has grown faster than new case growth.

Our deaths per million is now 53. Denmark is 41. A week ago we were tracking Denmark nicely, a country with similar demographics to us.

The % needing hospitalization and ICU are updated every day. You can track a trend, day after day less and less % increase, which means a flattening of the curve, regardless of new cases.
Are Denmark listing all deaths regardless of the cause of death, as long as they were infected? Because there is a massive difference in how countries are counting it.
People critise China for the death figures and you look at the UK only counting deaths in hospital etc...

bodhrandude

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

best case scenario for a vaccine now anyone? it was 12-18 months a month ago, is that sill the case?

Correction 10 - 16 months they've been saying that for the last 2 months now so give it 6 months.

Wolf359f

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Pretty simple we aren't in the Schengen agreement

You read at least the first sentence and not just the headline!

speckle

pollen count Ireland
https://www.met.ie/forecasts/pollen

Tea Shock

Wombatman wrote: »

100,000 new cases per day. LO Fooking L wat?

We can't even do 100,000 tests a week.

Never going to happen.


Whip out a baseless model that looks awful lads.

Try to change the mindset from we could be doing a lot better to a mindset of "100,000 a day :eek:. Sure we are not doing too bad so"

The number of people we can test has no bearing on the number of cases we have. The number of tests that have tested positive are 6,574 but the number of cases we have is, conservatively, probably at least double that.

gabeeg

Wolf359f wrote: »

The % needing hospitalization and ICU are updated every day. You can track a trend, day after day less and less % increase, which means a flattening of the curve, regardless of new cases.
Are Denmark listing all deaths regardless of the cause of death, as long as they were infected? Because there is a massive difference in how countries are counting it.
People critise China for the death figures and you look at the UK only counting deaths in hospital etc...

The percentage being hospitalised does not indicate a flattening of the curve at all. Not in any sense.

It simply means they're being more careful with who gets a bed. It means the opposite of what you think it means.

Otherwise, great point

Hobgoblin11

In 260 days to Christmas

delly

delly wrote: »

I consider myself to be a very rational and passive person, but with having a young member of my household with a long term illness, I'll happily go savage for the muppets who don't give a toss about restrictions.

I admire that you are not ashamed to say it, and the people who thank your post are not ashamed to agree.
I assume you all are actually meaning it and not just being keyboard warriors.

NIMAN

KerryConnor wrote: »

1% would be horrific. That is 4 people in relatively small company of 400 I work in.

Unlikely 4 would die in your work, unless you work with a lot of old people or those with serious underlying health issues.

Sober Crappy Chemis

political analyst wrote: »

You might as well be trying to eradicate hay fever!

If the elderly and those with underlying health problems (e.g. cystic fibrosis) remain in isolation while all other people go back to normal then herd immunity will form among all other people and then the pandemic will be over in a relatively short period of time.

Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said many people who have the virus are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and recover without even knowing they had it - and so the mortality rate could be even less than 1%!

Damn, you have it all solved!

Who would have thought the solution was so simple?
If only those in power thought of this!

You are a pioneer, a maverick, a Nobel candidate for sure.
Take a bow.

speckle

gmisk wrote: »

A lot more than one person lives in Phoenix park...

I mean one residency oh the embassy. who else?

Wolf359f

gabeeg wrote: »

The percentage being hospitalised does not indicate a flattening of the curve at all. Not in any sense.

It simply means they're being more careful with who gets a bed. It means the opposite of what you think it means.

Otherwise, great point

So the hospitals have empty beds dedicated to covid19 patients and they are sending them away after being delivered in an ambulance?
The ICU % following the hospitalisation % closely, are they not allowing people into ICU either?

Quantum Erasure

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

In 260 days to Christmas

it's 625 days to Christmas

Just Saying

Wolf359f wrote: »

Any chance you can share the underlying data? I'd be really interested in how you're coming to that assumption.
We get new case figures each day, we don't know when those tests were done, when the symptoms first occured, if that test was a result of contract tracing etc...

For all we know of the 500 cases today, some could be from someone with symptoms a week ago and infected a week before that, some may be health care workers, nursing homes etc... And as such the number of the public out there spreading it could be alot less than we (us so called specialists) are aware of

Point is, there's so much more details/data those making the decisions see that we are privy to.
The fact hospitalization and ICU admissions are growing at a much smaller % than new case numbers shows the spread out in the public is a lot less than new cases shows.

I have been trying to make sense of the daily new case numbers especially in light of the fact that hospitalization and ICU figures have not been growing at the same pace.
You would imagine that the hospitalization and ICU figure are more accurate in real time.

My theory is that the new cases figure started to increase out of line with the hospitalization and ICU figures last Friday.There was a lack of reagent available in Irish labs last week so in theory the numbers should not have been increasing.

However the Head of the HSE said last Sunday that German test results were being included in the figures since last Friday.We know that these were older tests but if as I think they have been drip fed into the new cases figures at a rate of over 100 per day the figures would make more sense. Additionally I read on twitter that the latest batch of German results showed a positive percentage of 13% which would indicate that they are moving on to the newer case backlog.If this is the case then this is the possible reason for todays spike.

George Lee on twitter today was surmising that there could be 1000 German new cases not in the figures but all the evidence would point to the fact that they are.Put quite simply Irish labs do not have the capacity on their own to return 500 positives in a day.

gabeeg

Wolf359f wrote: »

So the hospitals have empty beds dedicated to covid19 patients and they are sending them away after being delivered in an ambulance?
The ICU % following the hospitalisation % closely, are they not allowing people into ICU either?

The ambulance crew are triaging patients themselves. I've a little personal experience of this myself. They're doing a bloody good job, and keeping the hospitalisation rate to a minimum while still making sure people left home are monitored regularly and ok.

Same goes for ICU. In the first week of this crisis they would have admitted people to ICU that would have no chance of being admitted today.
And probably rightly so. They'll be getting better and better at identifying serious cases as each day passes.

Basically the only number worth looking at is the death rate, and for a variety of reasons that's not all that reliable either.

gmisk

speckle wrote: »

well meant one residency oh the embassy. who else?

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/park-people-1.1005940
Keepers, foremen and many more including retired former workers.
There are plenty of other people now this is an old story.

Wombatman

Wolf359f wrote: »

The % needing hospitalization and ICU are updated every day. You can track a trend, day after day less and less % increase, which means a flattening of the curve, regardless of new cases.
Are Denmark listing all deaths regardless of the cause of death, as long as they were infected? Because there is a massive difference in how countries are counting it.
People critise China for the death figures and you look at the UK only counting deaths in hospital etc...

Yes the growth rate is falling but the actual numbers are still going up.

We are flattening when the growth rate stays around 0.



The growth rate tends to fall as your numbers grow larger.

100 to 110 deaths is a growth rate of 10% and a growth in number of 10.

200 to 220 deaths is a growth rate of 10% and a growth in number of 20.

10 more deaths.

road_high

What’s the Garda overtime bill going to be by the time all ends I wonder?

macmahon

Come on guys! Its not rocket science the numbers are just not adding up! Empty testing facilities!

joe_99

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/covid-19-hundreds-of-uk-care-home-deaths-not-added-to-official-toll

UK deaths under reported

stephenjmcd

Wolf359f wrote: »

You read at least the first sentence and not just the headline!

No I've read it when this was initially agreed a few weeks ago, we cant have both the cta and the schengen. Cta is around longer

Just Saying

gabeeg wrote: »

The percentage being hospitalised does not indicate a flattening of the curve at all. Not in any sense.

It simply means they're being more careful with who gets a bed. It means the opposite of what you think it means.

Otherwise, great point

I dont think so.I do not think we are near the point where we are near being careful who gets a bed and who doesn't.Yesterdays press briefing stated that there were over 100 ICU beds still available...