CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

caveat emptor

PCros wrote: »

The "mass burial" grave is something they do daily for the homeless who have died.

Nothing to do with the virus - but you have some idiot epidemiologist who should know better tweeting that. :rolleyes:

Few things. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52241221

• I suppose the BBC are idiots also.
• So US normally buries people in mass graves and that's grand
• epidemiologist is an Idiot

I know it's hard at the moment with the all the uncertainty. Especially regarding jobs, family etc. The fact is that if the administration had listened to him and people like him we would have a lot less bodies to find a hole for.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1221542425056940034?s=20

Phoebas

I presume that the 'plan' is to maintain the spread of the virus to manageable levels until either we get a vaccine or achieve herd Immunity.

That being the case, aren't tracking apps and immunity certificates and the like going to be inevitable, along with a steady stream of deaths every day over the next year or so.

I hear people talking about gradually lifting restrictions and getting back to normal towards the end of the summer, but I just don't see how that works.

The One Doctor

Realistically speaking the lockdown is not sustainable for more than another month. After that... we'll, let's just say that the Guards might be more challenged than challenging.

I don't want anyone more to die of this virus, but economic and psychological problems are appearing day by day. Divorces rates, suicide rates, mental health issues, money problems, unemployment, businesses shut permanently, tax takes way down, education problems... lockdown is unsustainable for much longer in multiple ways.

There are some positives. Hand washing and social distancing will remain as habits now, reducing virus spread. Working from home will help too.

BanditLuke

DellyBelly wrote: »

If the restrictions as laid out by the government are lifted on Sunday what's the first thing people will do. Me I think I'll get out into nature. Visit a beach or glendalough.

They won't be lifted this Sunday and not for many Sunday's to come.

It's time now for people to start acting like adults and realize this is long term for our own good.

PCros

caveat emptor wrote: »

Few things. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52241221

• I suppose the BBC are idiots also.
• So US normally buries people in mass graves and that's grand
• epidemiologist is an Idiot

Well the BBC backs up my point...its a burial ground for for New Yorkers with no next of kin or who could not afford a funeral. This happens regardless.

Of course this is going to increase with the current situation but they are making it out to be everyone who dies from the virus is getting thrown in the ground.

https://www.hartisland.net/

Gynoid

PCros wrote: »

The "mass burial" grave is something they do daily for the homeless who have died.

Nothing to do with the virus - but you have some idiot epidemiologist who should know better tweeting that. :rolleyes:

It is done all the time, you are correct. But the numbers now are very much different. Why don't you read around a bit about it, like at Reuters, BBC, other reputable outlets. Numbers have increased in storage facilities from a normal ongoing 900 to ongoing 3600 bodies and the municipal authorities had to reduce normal unclaimed time periods from 30 to 14 days. Originally they wanted to reduce to 6 days before mass burial ordered but as that is quite brutal, they relented. Undertakers are saying they are overwhelmed.
It is easy enough to check out a story before a casual dismissal.

Hugely significant finding from Germany - 0.4% infection fatality rate

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

Tested a whole town in Germany. Fatality rate lower than thought at .4% .

Infection fatality rate far more accurate than case fatality rate

So if deaths and hospitalised rate far lower than assumed then hospitals not overrun so relax lockdown earlier as whole basis is health service over-run

Also 15% was the infection rate in the town there. Long way to go to herd immunity

AtomicHorror

Phoebas wrote: »

I presume that the 'plan' is to maintain the spread of the virus to manageable levels until either we get a vaccine or achieve herd Immunity.

Herd immunity can't be achieved safely before a vaccine would likely be approved. The numbers just don't allow for it.

Duke of Url

Hi All

Does anyone know if Dumps are open?

eddie73

Phoebas wrote: »

I presume that the 'plan' is to maintain the spread of the virus to manageable levels until either we get a vaccine or achieve herd Immunity.

That being the case, aren't tracking apps and immunity certificates and the like going to be inevitable, along with a steady stream of deaths every day over the next year or so.

I hear people talking about gradually lifting restrictions and getting back to normal towards the end of the summer, but I just don't see how that works.

This is a fair guess.

This virus doesn't disappear because of quarantine. The numbers reduce right back but it never goes away, best case scenario.

With this in mind, we either continue a quarantine that effectively means the economic collapse of global economics, or we go back out and all get infected.

The later is the only option, but in a way that staggers as much as possible the spread of the virus. Try and get as many young people infected over a 6 month period without overrunning the hospitals as this is being done, would be the most likely strategy.

Unfortunately, this would mean severe restrictions to continue for the over 70s.

There are people that dont fully understand the rules of engagement of this virus. Our choices are written above, there are no others. Stay quarantined and watch the country collapse in about 2 months, or go back out and get infected, on our terms as much as we can rather than random and recklessly.

Drumpot

Phoebas wrote: »

I presume that the 'plan' is to maintain the spread of the virus to manageable levels until either we get a vaccine or achieve herd Immunity.

That being the case, aren't tracking apps and immunity certificates and the like going to be inevitable, along with a steady stream of deaths every day over the next year or so.

I hear people talking about gradually lifting restrictions and getting back to normal towards the end of the summer, but I just don't see how that works.

I think you may be right on all accounts.

If this is going to go on for 12—18 months , if an app is needed to help defeat it then it will happen. I was thinking about contact tracing and an app is far easier then asking everybody to keep a diary of where they were and who they met over the previous weeks.

People can’t have their cake and eat it, until this passes unless a better way is found some of our democratic rights may need to be suspended like they are currently. If it’s an app on our phones that we can delete when this is over then so be it.

Doctors room ghost

The One Doctor wrote: »

Realistically speaking the lockdown is not sustainable for more than another month. After that... we'll, let's just say that the Guards might be more challenged than challenging.

I don't want anyone more to die of this virus, but economic and psychological problems are appearing day by day. Divorces rates, suicide rates, mental health issues, money problems, unemployment, businesses shut permanently, tax takes way down, education problems... lockdown is unsustainable for much longer in multiple ways.

There are some positives. Hand washing and social distancing will remain as habits now, reducing virus spread. Working from home will help too.

If the pubs and nightclubs were opened this minute they would be packed to the rafters and not a single fcuk would be given for social distancing unless it was brought up as a joke.lets not be kidding ourselves.
The second coppers or the likes open there will be people packed into them and it will be the same as it ever was.
Casualty will be back to babysitting gombeens that can’t hold their Porter or who fancy themselves as a bit of a mikeen Tyson after a few sherries.
An hour and things will be as they always were.

cameramonkey

Duke of Url wrote: »

Hi All

Does anyone know if Dumps are open?

Ballyogan in Dublin was open all week so far.
https://www.dlrcoco.ie/en/recycling-waste/recycling-centres/ballyogan-recycling-park

Gynoid

The One Doctor wrote: »

Realistically speaking the lockdown is not sustainable for more than another month. After that... we'll, let's just say that the Guards might be more challenged than challenging.

I don't want anyone more to die of this virus, but economic and psychological problems are appearing day by day. Divorces rates, suicide rates, mental health issues, money problems, unemployment, businesses shut permanently, tax takes way down, education problems... lockdown is unsustainable for much longer in multiple ways.

There are some positives. Hand washing and social distancing will remain as habits now, reducing virus spread. Working from home will help too.

Perhaps you can provide the policy makers with your suitably researched and backed up claims on divorce rates, suicide rates and mental health issues that counterpose the pandemic research rates and proper medical extrapolations.
There is so much hype and hyperbole from people who are supposedly in the sane "please let us think of the economic consequences" brigade. Spouting shyte more like.
You know next to feck all about this disease, like the rest of us, and yet you speak of growing psychological problems as if from your armchair you can magically divine them.

The people who divorce because of this did not really like each other all that much anyway. Tis better they part. The people who cannot observe a period of social and economic restriction in a pandemic without falling into a mental health chasm cannot guide our requirements - they should instead look to better management of their own psychology. In the past 100 years our forefathers and mothers had to endure so much worse. The people who cannot help their children aught to grow up faster, there are a multitude of ways to educate and entertain your children nowadays. How about simply be with them. I educated mine for more than a decade at home and they all excelled in University. None of these tasks are even difficult. All this whimpering of think of the economy is bread head bluster. The economy and money will be waiting patiently for your endless desires on the other side of this.

Phoebas

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Herd immunity can't be achieved safely before a vaccine would likely be approved. The numbers just don't allow for it.

I suspect that's right, but there's a hope in some of the numbers coming out of Iceland and elsewhere that the number of asymptomatic infections is much higher than expected.

That might just be wishful thinking.

FishOnABike

DelaneyIn wrote: »

All EU Member States except Ireland "have since taken national decisions to implement the travel restriction."

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_616

Why is this?

It's an combined action coordinating the response of Schengen and Schengen-associated states to travel from outside the Schengen area . Ireland is not a Schengen or Schengen-associated state so is outside the scope of the press release.

AtomicHorror

Phoebas wrote: »

I suspect that's right, but there's a hope in some of the numbers coming out of Iceland and elsewhere that the number of asymptomatic infections is much higher than expected.

That might just be wishful thinking.

Assuming the numbers from Iceland will apply to Ireland, that would mean we have double the cases we think we have, and that we can allow infections at 2x whatever rate we would have accepted previously.

But to get to herd immunity in 12 - 18 months, we'd still need 150,000 - 250,000 new infections per month. Right now, assuming 50% of cases are asymptomatic and undetected, we have about 13,000 - 14,000 cases total.

Our health system would collapse within weeks.

Brianmwalker

glasso wrote: »

Hugely significant finding from Germany - 0.4% infection fatality rate

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

Tested a whole town in Germany. Fatality rate lower than thought at .4% .

Infection fatality rate far more accurate than case fatality rate

So if deaths and hospitalised rate far lower than assumed then hospitals not overrun so relax lockdown earlier as whole basis is health service over-run

Also 15% was the infection rate in the town there. Long way to go to herd immunity

No worries so. Back to normal life for everyone. Italian health service must be always over run...

AtomicHorror

glasso wrote: »

if what is coming out of Germany is correct and the infection fatality rate is 0.4% that may not be the case...

The numbers from Germany don't really help us, we'd still need to get to 60% population coverage minimum in too short a time. To do it safely would take years and would still cost many lives.

Brianmwalker

Brianmwalker wrote: »

No worries so. Back to normal life for everyone. Italian health service must be always over run...

the actual infection rate in the community in Italy is likely quite high. if it's 15% in a little German town, what do you think it is in Bergamo?

it doesn't mean that measures are abandoned but can certainly mean a change in them and particularly allows for flexibility moving towards an economy that produces income.

you do realise that the measures are all about projections on the health-service over-run.

AtomicHorror

AtomicHorror wrote: »

The numbers from Germany don't really help us, we'd still need to get to 60% population coverage minimum in too short a time. To do it safely would take years and would still cost many lives.

does affect lockdown measures as all measures based on hospital capacity.

if true hospitalisation and icu admission rates (of total infected) are a fraction of what was assumed then that obviously changes things.

does not mean that you abandon measures but would certainly influence stage II

Gynoid

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Assuming the numbers from Iceland will apply to Ireland, that would mean we have double the cases we think we have, and that we can allow infections at 2x whatever rate we would have accepted previously.

But to get to herd immunity in 12 - 18 months, we'd still need 150,000 - 250,000 new infections per month. Right now, assuming 50% of cases are asymptomatic and undetected, we have about 13,000 - 14,000 cases total.

Our health system would collapse within weeks.

A health system can only collapse if the numbers requiring significant treatment are bad. We do not know what percentage that would be in the end. This is the thing - it may not be bad. It may be that only a tiny number need hospital and an even tinier number die. We do not know now. We do not know if those recovered are okay longer term. We do not know if there are subtler effects even in asymptomatic people.

Because it is a novel virus to our immune systems and apparently quite contagious, this is why even if it is a very tiny number who need help it might be bad for the overall system.

THAT is why we just gotta wait a bit and get more data. That is all - more knowledge! We need it. More science. Not rush about like silly lemmings making wittering frantic noises about the great god economy.

iguana

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Herd immunity can't be achieved safely before a vaccine would likely be approved. The numbers just don't allow for it.

Not full herd immunity no. But allowing a degree of spread during this wave, say 20-30%, means that a second, winter wave would be less deadly. We might also have decent antibody testing in the next few months. A number of countries have plans to issue immunity certificates allowing those immune people to work. Imagine if by late autumn nursing home and care home staff and home care assistants were all people with immunity. The majority of our fatalities right now seem to be from nursing homes. Just think of the enormous difference it would make if it wasn't possible for someone working in a nursing home to infect the residents. Imagine how much easier and safer it would be for frontline workers to find childcare if childcare workers with immunity were organised, etc.

We lost whatever chance we had of containing Covid 19 in February. A number of decisions were made early on that made that blatantly impossible. I suspect that the decision was made to allow a degree of slow spread in the spring/summer so that we wouldn't be completely overwhelmed in the winter. The DoH just had a bit more nous than the British government and didn't come out and say that's what they were doing while also planning for a slower spread.

lord quackinton

Ireland getting hit hard by Covid one of the highest death rates even above America

I firmly believe this Is down to the very poor state of our nursing homes
I worked in some before building work but all the same I found the general cleanness of the homes was very poor.

I think when this is over we will have to review how as a society we treat the elderly

DevilsHaircut

glasso wrote: »

the actual infection rate in the community in Italy is likely quite high. if it's 15% in a little German town, what do you think it is in Bergamo?

it doesn't mean that measures are abandoned but can certainly mean a change in them and particularly allows for flexibility moving towards an economy that produces income.

you do realise that the measures are all about projections on the health-service over-run.

Tony Holohan has said many times at the briefings that the measures/NPHET recommendations are firstly to reduce transmission and the number of people infected.

Nermal

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Our health system would collapse within weeks.

I keep hearing this mantra repeated, without any thought or detail. When we have more patients than we can treat, we treat the ones most likely to survive. That’s not collapse, it’s triage. It’s unpleasant. So what? Economic collapse is unpleasant too.

DevilsHaircut

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Tony Holohan has said many times at the briefings that the measures/NPHET recommendations are firstly to reduce transmission and the number of people infected.

this is more about stage II and the influence on that eventual plan

lord quackinton

lord quackinton wrote: »

Ireland getting hit hard by Covid one of the highest death rates even above America

I firmly believe this Is down to the very poor state of our nursing homes
I worked in some before building work but all the same I found the general cleanness of the homes was very poor.

I think when this is over we will have to review how as a society we treat the elderly

the case fatality rate doesn't mean much given the state of the testing and testing that cannot really be effectively compared between countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

the death rate per million population (assuming deaths are actually correctly classified and reported in both countries which is a big assumption especially given size of US) of 50 vs 53 is hardly significantly different.

Doctors room ghost

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

If the pubs and nightclubs were opened this minute they would be packed to the rafters and not a single fcuk would be given for social distancing unless it was brought up as a joke.lets not be kidding ourselves.
The second coppers or the likes open there will be people packed into them and it will be the same as it ever was.
Casualty will be back to babysitting gombeens that can’t hold their Porter or who fancy themselves as a bit of a mikeen Tyson after a few sherries.
An hour and things will be as they always were.

You can never underestimate mass stupidity, "what about me jar I just want a taste" under the guise of economic progress. The lockdown isn't sustainable long-term but a gradual lifting of restrictions is the only feasible solution. Consider the fine weather this weekend. If the "lockdown will be gone by Sunday lads" crackpot had his way a stampede would overrun the beaches and parks. An oversized petri dish for rampant spread of Covid-19. Locals in west Clare are absolutely right to offer holiday home crowd the shotgun treatment, take your non-essential journey and shove it up your entitled hole. There were 500 new cases yesterday, the highest tally yet and this will only increase in immediate future. People need to cop on to themselves, we're all in this together. Let's slow the rate of infection and not needlessly endanger lives.

speckle

Ardent wrote: »

Supposedly footage of mass graves being filled in NYC:
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321?s=19

Unbelievable times.

we need to make sure this doesnt happen in Ireland. Is their some fund or charity so people can be buried in single graves. Maybe familys with alot of room in their grave plot could donate a place.Down the country most locals band together so this doesnt happen. maybe the vdp?