CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

polesheep

glasso wrote: »

the actual infection rate in the community in Italy is likely quite high. if it's 15% in a little German town, what do you think it is in Bergamo?

it doesn't mean that measures are abandoned but can certainly mean a change in them and particularly allows for flexibility moving towards an economy that produces income.

you do realise that the measures are all about projections on the health-service over-run.

I think you'd be amazed just how many people aren't aware of that.

DevilsHaircut

In terms of 'stage II'/an exit strategy, I think effective treatments (potentially including convalescent plasma/antibody therapy) are likely to come sooner than a vaccine or 'herd immunity' (60%+? infected).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/plasma-from-coronavirus-survivors-found-to-help-severely-ill-patients

The One Doctor

Gynoid wrote: »

Perhaps you can provide the policy makers with your suitably researched and backed up claims on divorce rates, suicide rates and mental health issues that counterpose the pandemic research rates and proper medical extrapolations.
There is so much hype and hyperbole from people who are supposedly in the sane "please let us think of the economic consequences" brigade. Spouting shyte more like.
You know next to feck all about this disease, like the rest of us, and yet you speak of growing psychological problems as if from your armchair you can magically divine them.

The people who divorce because of this did not really like each other all that much anyway. Tis better they part. The people who cannot observe a period of social and economic restriction in a pandemic without falling into a mental health chasm cannot guide our requirements - they should instead look to better management of their own psychology. In the past 100 years our forefathers and mothers had to endure so much worse. The people who cannot help their children aught to grow up faster, there are a multitude of ways to educate and entertain your children nowadays. How about simply be with them. I educated mine for more than a decade at home and they all excelled in University. None of these tasks are even difficult. All this whimpering of think of the economy is bread head bluster. The economy and money will be waiting patiently for your endless desires on the other side of this.

I was going to write a blistering riposte to your post, but I admit that you're right. Thank you for putting the situation in a way that makes it clearer for us all.

Just to be clear, this is a genuine reply and not sarcasm.

AtomicHorror

Gynoid wrote: »

A health system can only collapse if the numbers requiring significant treatment are bad. We do not know what percentage that would be in the end. This is the thing - it may not be bad. It may be that only a tiny number need hospital and an even tinier number die. We do not know now. We do not know if those recovered are okay longer term. We do not know if there are subtler effects even in asymptomatic people.

We know a bit. We know that we're probably missing 30-50% of total cases, but that these don't ultimately contribute as much to the serious and fatal case counts. We know the % of serious case counts and deaths per detected case. We know our population and the % coverage we need to get to minimum herd immunity.

That's where I got my numbers from, and with those assumptions, you'd be talking about increasing our serious and fatal case count to at least 5x what it is right now, and you'd have to manage that volume every month.

Gynoid wrote: »

Because it is a novel virus to our immune systems and apparently quite contagious, this is why even if it is a very tiny number who need help it might be bad for the overall system.

THAT is why we just gotta wait a bit and get more data. That is all - more knowledge! We need it. More science. Not rush about like silly lemmings making wittering frantic noises about the great god economy.

I agree, which means no major changes to the current controls for some time to come, particularly travel and quarantine. I don't think natural herd immunity is going to be realistic, unless the numbers are 1 -2 orders of magnitude off where we think they are based on the numbers from Iceland and Germany.

petes

Nermal wrote: »

I keep hearing this mantra repeated, without any thought or detail. When we have more patients than we can treat, we treat the ones most likely to survive. That’s not collapse, it’s triage. It’s unpleasant. So what? Economic collapse is unpleasant too.

If you have to triage between someone who gets treatment and someone who doesn't it's not manageable and therefore overrun.

Nermal

Nermal wrote: »

I keep hearing this mantra repeated, without any thought or detail. When we have more patients than we can treat, we treat the ones most likely to survive. That’s not collapse, it’s triage. It’s unpleasant. So what? Economic collapse is unpleasant too.

The virus itself is the cause of economic collapse, lockdown or no lockdown. Let's say we didn't lockdown, do you really believe that the economy could just tick along as normal while health services are being overrun, thousands are dying and the population is living in fear? Also while many of our global trading partners are in lockdown.

This is not a simple trade off where you can exchange the lives of the vulnerable for economic stability (a choice most reasonable people would never support anyway). You either risk lives in a vain attempt to protect an economy that's already screwed, or you take measures to save as many lives as possible.

People talk about the trauma of lockdown, mental health issues, etc. I'd argue that the collective trauma is far worse in a situation where thousands of people are dying, thousands more may be left with long term lung damage, and those left behind are dealing with the after effects of losing their loved ones in such a distressing manner, unable to be with them when they're dying and not even being able to give them a decent funeral. Not to mention the fear that a high death rate would trigger in the general public.

There's a reason why most of the world has chosen to lockdown.

voluntary

lord quackinton wrote: »

Ireland getting hit hard by Covid one of the highest death rates even above America

The official death rate figures are rubbish. There's so many ill not being tested. And I'm not talking people queuing to be tested, I'm talking people told by GPs to stay home and take paracetamol and never offered to be tested. I know 2 families with COVID like symptoms who wanted to be tested but were told NO by their GPs as the body temperature was below 39 Celsius. We have many, many more infected than official figures, so the death rates are skewed.

Even WHO advices against looking at these numbers and death rates and comparing across countries. These numbers are simply uncomparable.
Add to this that different countries count different deaths into statistics. Some countries report all infected who died, many countries only report these whose main reason of death was covid. With other underlying conditions many countries massively underreport covid deaths.

gabeeg

glasso wrote: »

Hugely significant finding from Germany - 0.4% infection fatality rate

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

Tested a whole town in Germany. Fatality rate lower than thought at .4% .

Infection fatality rate far more accurate than case fatality rate

So if deaths and hospitalised rate far lower than assumed then hospitals not overrun so relax lockdown earlier as whole basis is health service over-run

Also 15% was the infection rate in the town there. Long way to go to herd immunity

This virus does not have a static fatality rate.

It might have a fatality rate of 0.4% in one small town in Germany, but that will not be the same in a small town in say Italy, where the health system was completely overwhelmed.
The death rate will be significantly higher there.

Your article also completely neglects to mention the stat that is just as important - how many people in that German town got infected?

petes

The One Doctor wrote: »

I was going to write a blistering riposte to your post, but I admit that you're right. Thank you for putting the situation in a way that makes it clearer for us all.

Just to be clear, this is a genuine reply and not sarcasm.

Glad to see someone replying like this, most people argue until they are blue in the face :pac:

take everything

weldoninhio wrote: »

For us to have hit 15k, just under half of people tested would have had to be positive for Covid. Has any country got a 50% infection rate?? We’d only done 42k tests up to Tuesday.

So you're putting the projected 15k figure over 42k. But the 42k is the denominator for our situation now. So you're describing a scenario where no mitigation measures were done and 15k happened and we did not ramp up testing. Then yes the reported infection rate would be that high. No country seems to have run that experiment so we have not seen this.

polesheep

polesheep wrote: »

I think you'd be amazed just how many people aren't aware of that.

you're probably right about that I suppose.

that's why I pointed it out....

old_aussie

I fear that getting rid of Covid-19 will take as much or more, time and effort that Polio took.

There is no cure for polio, it can only be prevented. You need to have a vaccine

And currently there is no cure for Covid-19 and as yet cannot be prevented. We need a vaccine (if that's even possible)

Q: Polio is a disease you read about in history books. Does it still exist? Is it curable?

A: Polio does still exist, although polio cases have decreased by over 99% since 1988, from an estimated more than 350 000 cases to 22 reported cases in 2017. This reduction is the result of the global effort to eradicate the disease. Today, only 3 countries in the world have never stopped transmission of polio (Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria).

Despite the progress achieved since 1988, as long as a single child remains infected with poliovirus, children in all countries are at risk of contracting the disease. The poliovirus can easily be imported into a polio-free country and can spread rapidly amongst unimmunized populations. Failure to eradicate polio could result in as many as 200 000 new cases every year, within 10 years, all over the world.

There is no cure for polio, it can only be prevented. Polio vaccine, given multiple times, can protect a child for life.

speckle

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Goodfellas was on t.v. last night. In the prison scene they have access to the best of steaks ,garlic,veg and pasta!

Me-self and the household are doing our bit. One weekly shop , by one person in the house.

I'm contemplating breaking this rule. I feel like going out on Saturday to get the papers,get the papers.

repeat in your mind ...do not get the papers save a life could be mine ....do not get the papers save a life it could be mine.....

Kermit.de.frog

Belgium reports 496 new deaths and 1684 new cases in 24 hours.

That's Belgium's highest death toll in a 24 hour period so far. Brings total to 3,019.

gabeeg

gabeeg wrote: »

This virus does not have a static fatality rate.

It might have a fatality rate of 0.4% in one small town in Germany, but that will not be the same in a small town in say Italy, where the health system was completely overwhelmed.
The death rate will be significantly higher there.

Your article also completely neglects to mention the stat that is just as important - how many people in that German town got infected?

so you are saying that more people are dying in Italy due to the care that they are receiving - what proof is there for that?

domrush

Had no idea there was so many epidemiologists on boards

KiKi III

Nermal wrote: »

I keep hearing this mantra repeated, without any thought or detail. When we have more patients than we can treat, we treat the ones most likely to survive. That’s not collapse, it’s triage. It’s unpleasant. So what? Economic collapse is unpleasant too.

Given that our health system is under a lot of pressure as it stands even with the lockdown, the level of triage would likely be devastating.

You’d have a similar situation as Italy where the over 80s are an automatic DNR and you’d see many more people in their 50s and 60s dying because they can’t get beds in ICU with ventilators.

AtomicHorror

iguana wrote: »

Not full herd immunity no. But allowing a degree of spread during this wave, say 20-30%, means that a second, winter wave would be less deadly.

If the HIT for COVID happens to be right at the very lowest level in the estimated range of 29% - 70%, then it is possible, but very unlikely, that 20-30% herd immunity would be helpful.

Far more likely that it would do more harm than good.

To get to 30% by October would mean allowing about 200,000 infections per month.

Nermal wrote: »

I keep hearing this mantra repeated, without any thought or detail. When we have more patients than we can treat, we treat the ones most likely to survive. That’s not collapse, it’s triage. It’s unpleasant. So what? Economic collapse is unpleasant too.

Triage still requires resource itself, and if the patient volumes are large enough, it'll drive fatigue and increasing error rates. Even without increased error, triage means more people dying who otherwise would not have. With error, that's compounded. That's what I mean when I refer to "collapse".

Describing it in more detailed terms doesn't make it any less alarming to me.

Alf Veedersane

voluntary wrote: »

The official death rate figures are rubbish. There's so many ill not being tested. And I'm not talking people queuing to be tested, I'm talking people told by GPs to stay home and take paracetamol and never offered to be tested. I know 2 families with COVID like symptoms who wanted to be tested but were told NO by their GPs as the body temperature was below 39 Celsius. We have many, many more infected than official figures, so the death rates are skewed.

Even WHO advices against looking at these numbers and death rates and comparing across countries. These numbers are simply uncomparable.
Add to this that different countries count different deaths into statistics. Some countries report all infected who died, many countries only report these whose main reason of death was covid. With other underlying conditions many countries massively underreport covid deaths.

The death rate the other poster referenced is the deaths per million population. Not the deaths as a % of cases.

Acosta

The government appear to have returned to pre virus mode of leaking most of the details of their plans to the media instead of just announcing themselves

domrush

domrush wrote: »

Had no idea there was so many epidemiologists on boards

always had plenty of these types of nothing comments tho!

Gynoid

The One Doctor wrote: »

I was going to write a blistering riposte to your post, but I admit that you're right. Thank you for putting the situation in a way that makes it clearer for us all.

Just to be clear, this is a genuine reply and not sarcasm.

Awww thank you, appreciated Don't go making me cry with blistering ripostes! I am quite soft and small sized in spite of all me big stern talk.

Nermal

Flying Fox wrote: »

The virus itself is the cause of economic collapse, lockdown or no lockdown. Let's say we didn't lockdown, do you really believe that the economy could just tick along as normal while health services are being overrun, thousands are dying and the population is living in fear? Also while many of our global trading partners are in lockdown.

As normal? No. But if you think the streets, bars and restaurants would be deserted, you’re flat wrong. Otherwise - why would we need a lockdown at all? Despite the best efforts of our media, plenty of us have not succumbed to irrational panic.

glasso

glasso wrote: »

so you are saying that more people are dying in Italy due to the care that they are receiving - what proof is there for that?

It's well documented at this point that the health service in many regions of Italy, particularly in the north, was stretched far beyond capacity due to the sheer numbers of very ill patients with covid-19. It doesn't take a genius to work out that once that happens, people who may have otherwise been saved will die. Don't take my word for it, listen to the accounts of Italian doctors working on the front line.

munsterlegend

Acosta wrote: »

The government appear to have returned to pre virus mode of leaking most of the details of their plans to the media instead of just announcing themselves

Seems to be completely different messages in Irish times and independent headlines.

iguana

iguana wrote: »

Not full herd immunity no. But allowing a degree of spread during this wave, say 20-30%, means that a second, winter wave would be less deadly. We might also have decent antibody testing in the next few months. A number of countries have plans to issue immunity certificates allowing those immune people to work. Imagine if by late autumn nursing home and care home staff and home care assistants were all people with immunity. The majority of our fatalities right now seem to be from nursing homes. Just think of the enormous difference it would make if it wasn't possible for someone working in a nursing home to infect the residents. Imagine how much easier and safer it would be for frontline workers to find childcare if childcare workers with immunity were organised, etc.

We lost whatever chance we had of containing Covid 19 in February. A number of decisions were made early on that made that blatantly impossible. I suspect that the decision was made to allow a degree of slow spread in the spring/summer so that we wouldn't be completely overwhelmed in the winter. The DoH just had a bit more nous than the British government and didn't come out and say that's what they were doing while also planning for a slower spread.

I'd imagine immunity certificates would actually cause some trouble. Imagine you are a healthy, 30 something with family and mortgage. Government supports have been paired back, because we can only afford them for so long, you are now on statutory sick pay. Your colleague who headed of to Cheltenham, came back and worked as normal until the lockdown, went to beaches etc. and ended up with a mild version would with a cert be allowed back to work and is essentially free to move around. You on the other hand complied with all the social distancing guidelines, remained home, and never caught the virus. You would still be expected to remain at home, be unable to work and possibly struggling to keep up mortgage payments. And to top it all off, you are not even allowed out to catch the virus and become eligible for a certificate. How do you think that might play out in the long term?

Funsterdelux

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Belgium reports 496 new deaths and 1684 new cases in 24 hours.

That's Belgium's highest death toll in a 24 hour period so far. Brings total to 3,019.

Welcome back

Kermit.de.frog

First case reported in war-torn Yemen

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1248475237429080064

speckle

caveat emptor wrote: »

The care home situation is dreadful globally. In Lombardy Russian chemical, biological and radiological experts from Russian Defence ministry disinfecting retirement/ care / nursing homes.

We would never ask for help from them I guess? Why not though? We clearly have a disaster on going in nursing homes and need all the help we can get. Clearly know what they are doing. AKAIK we do knot have this capability.

https://www.rt.com/news/484343-italy-russia-covid19-response/

they are missing loads of bits. under the table top and ends of matressses etc.

caveat emptor

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Assuming the numbers from Iceland will apply to Ireland, that would mean we have double the cases we think we have, and that we can allow infections at 2x whatever rate we would have accepted previously.

But to get to herd immunity in 12 - 18 months, we'd still need 150,000 - 250,000 new infections per month. Right now, assuming 50% of cases are asymptomatic and undetected, we have about 13,000 - 14,000 cases total.

Our health system would collapse within weeks.

Worrying story from Korean CDC. Wouldn't dismiss outright considering their track record of being ahead ahead of this. Would literally make lockdown pointless and even trying to find a vaccine pointless.

The coronavirus may be “reactivating” in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-may-reactivate-in-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says