CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

fritzelly

Cody montana wrote: »

Cases in France seem to have gone way up again.

Yeah - the new Spain

Wolf359f

The % increase on hospital admissions is reducing day on day.
1 April: 11.48%
2 April: 7.60%
3 April: 7.60%
4 April: 5.15%

And looking good on the ICU:
1 April: 24.18%
2 April: 15.93%
3 April: 15.27%
4 April: 10.60%

On the testing, I would assume even though the figures today are 370, when they are doing the modeling, they would use the date the symptoms appeared instead of the date the result came back positive. I would assume they have more detailed info, so although the curve is slowing (new cases) they would have a far more accurate curve that maybe follows the hospital admission curve.

Fr_Dougal

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's 6.5k on the island.

She said the Republic. I double checked.

Sierra Oscar

Funsterdelux wrote: »

RTE news piece about how important the leaving cert is for getting into 3rd level, whose to say there will be 3rd level starting in September

Many universities have done surprisingly well to get their courses up and running online during all of this. I’d imagine those efforts will only continue the longer this goes on.

Just Saying

Tony said the German lab had tested older cases and had returned a % rate of 7.79 % of positive cases.

The original % rate of cases testing positive was 6% which rose to 15% when the more stringent testing criteria were implemented.It would therefore appear that all the oldest cases were sent to Germany as the positive case rate of their results mirrors more closely the rate from our older testing regime.

Paul Reid said yesterday that these results had been coming back since Friday so I would be fairly sure that they have been included in our figures at a rate of approximately 120 per day since Friday. A glance at our daily new case rate would indicate that this is plausible.

This would mean that there will be no massive surge in new cases.Combined with the death rate stabilizing rather than showing large growth I would be very hopeful that our strategy is working.The clusters in Nursing Homes and Residential Care settings being the biggest worry.

is_that_so

pc7 wrote: »

Is a surge going to come, could we have moved quick enough March 12th to stop it?

What they described as a surge back at the beginning is probably not going to happen. Now it seems that it will be a lot lower and spread over a longer period, that curve flattening, and should be a lot more manageable.

Arghus

AdrianG08 wrote: »

What was said about top tier exactly? and why is it bull?

There was a question about the rate of testing compared to other countries and basically can we trust the figures and the idea that we are doing better in terms of testing and tracing than other countries.

Ronan Glynn and started talking about how Ireland ranked in the "top tier" amongst countries per capita for testing numbers, but he never got into specifics or even what was meant by saying "top tier" - as in who are we comparing ourselves too?

Another reporter asked a question, but then the prior inquisitor followed with what is actually meant by saying Ireland's testing numbers are in the "top tier"

Dr. Glynn sounded a lot less sure when actually probed about what it meant. Two minutes previously he'd sounded very sure, now he was claiming that Ireland was definitely "up there".

When the reporter continued with how do we judge and compare figures, Dr. Glynn said he didn't have accurate figures and accurate figures from other jurisdictions weren't really at hand either. So basically the claim is unverifible and he essentially admitted it. It reeks of a PR line.

ACitizenErased

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

She said the Republic. I double checked.

I know, I was watching it. She should have said the island.

Amirani

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Per Worldometers, we are 38th in the world in testing numbers. When you take out the smaller countries with populations of < 1,000,000 we are roughly in the early 20s.

Worldometers are using the testing number from 31st March for Ireland. We've completed another 10k or so tests since then.

is_that_so

Funsterdelux wrote: »

RTE news piece about how important the leaving cert is for getting into 3rd level, whose to say there will be 3rd level starting in September

It will, in some form, fully by October/November.

ACitizenErased

Amirani wrote: »

Worldometers are using the testing number from 31st March for Ireland. We've completed another 10k or so tests since then.

Exactly yeah, people on here denying the fact we're doing well is ridiculous.

Naggdefy

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Number 1 is the Faeroe Islands. We're roughly early 20s late 10s without all the countries with less than a million population.

Regardless of whether we're 20th in the world at testing, with small countries taken out, it's average for a first world country.

We have a high case rate per population. The peak seems to be here. But hovering around 320-420 cases for a fortnight is a high rate per head of pop and will bring pressure on the health system and higher death rates. We need to go lower into the 200s in a week. Maybe, hopefully, we will.

spookwoman

Amirani wrote: »

The worldometers number for tests done for Ireland is way out of date.

about a week, but we cant be the only countries reporting once a week on test numbers. Will know tomorrow what the number are

ACitizenErased

Naggdefy wrote: »

Regardless of whether we're 20th in the world at testing, with small countries taken out, it's average for a first world country.

We have a high case rate per population. The peak seems to be here. But hovering around 320-420 cases for a fortnight is a high rate per head of pop and will bring pressure on the health system and higher death rates. We need to go lower into the 200s in a week. Maybe, hopefully, we will.

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1247215931232784384?s=20

harr

Anyone get the feeling they are expecting the numbers to ramp up big time the next week or so ? .. they are not coming across quiet as positive as they should be with the relatively small numbers.

is_that_so

Arghus wrote: »

There was a question about the rate of testing compared to other countries and basically can we trust the figures and the idea that we are doing better in terms of testing and tracing than other countries.

Ronan Glynn and started talking about how Ireland ranked in the "top tier" amongst countries per capita for testing numbers, but he never got into specifics or even what was meant by saying "top tier" - as in who are we comparing ourselves too?

Another reporter asked a question, but then the prior inquisitor followed with what is actually meant by saying Ireland's testing numbers are in the "top tier"

Dr. Glynn sounded a lot less sure when actually probed about what it meant. Two minutes previously he'd sounded very sure, now he was claiming that Ireland was definitely "up there".

When the reporter continued with how do we judge and compare figures, Dr. Glynn said he didn't have accurate figures and accurate figures from other jurisdictions weren't really at hand either. So basically the claim is unverifible and he essentially admitted it. It reeks of a PR line.

So is the gist of this that they are "spoofing" on everything?

Naggdefy

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Exactly yeah, people on here denying the fact we're doing well is ridiculous.

It's just reasoning things out, not ridiculous. 370 cases for a population of 4.7 million is beaten easily by a lot of countries. Just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't make their point ridiculous.

Vivienne23

I see tb being mentioned a lot can someone bring me up to speed please what’s the relevance ?

ACitizenErased

Naggdefy wrote: »

It's just reasoning things out, not ridiculous. 370 cases for a population of 4.7 million is beaten easily by a lot of countries. Just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't make their point ridiculous.

If you looked at the conversation you'd realise it's related to testing numbers.

BorneTobyWilde

fiveleavesleft wrote: »

Interesting wee video on the wet markets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whbyuy2nHBg

What an idiot, he goes down the local green grocer and thinks it's a wet market of the type that we know exists.

is_that_so

harr wrote: »

Anyone get the feeling they are expecting the numbers to ramp up big time the next week or so ? .. they are not coming across quiet as positive as they should be with the relatively small numbers.

They are the most cautious bunch of people I've ever seen. If the CMO is "encouraged" that's good! So far things seem to be "working".

Widdensushi

He was never going to say that he thought measures would be relaxed, if he did there would be alot of people making plans for the weekend. He didn't rule it out either .

AdrianG08

Absolutely killing some people in here to see the surge not coming.

pc7

Funsterdelux wrote: »

RTE news piece about how important the leaving cert is for getting into 3rd level, whose to say there will be 3rd level starting in September

Most Uni’s now doing it online so could start doing it this way if needed

Beasty

The 476 figure from Germany must be in addition to the 5,364 "total" being reported, unless they have been feeding German figures into the daily figures. If they had I am sure we would have been informed though

The issue for me remains they have not said how many tests resulted in the additional 370 "reported" cases today. If this is from 1500-2000 tests taken on whatever day these figures relate to, is it really good news? Let's say they have consistently tested 2,000 a day throughout (which is definitely more on aggregate than they have, but it's to illustrate this point

Today's new cases would then be 18.5% of those tested
Yesterday's 390 cases would be 19.5%
Saturday's 331 cases would be 16.5%
Friday's 424 cases would be 21.2%
Thursday's 212 would be 10.6%

It would appear to me though that the figure is "settling" at something in the high teens in terms of percentages of those tested

Now there clearly have been significant changes in those tested on a daily basis, which could very easily explain the variations above. Equally the overall percentages are higher because they have not been testing 2,000 a day. If it was nearer 1,500 a day on average you then move the percentage of those testing positive to around 25%

This all gives the appearance we are plateauing. But is that really the case? I am not convinced because everything is being limited by the number of tests done, and not everyone with this virus will be tested. It could be that new infections are still growing exponentially, but we simply are not identifying this because we are simply not doing enough tests

Once we see this increased testing delivering results (but bear in mind they were telling us weeks ago that testing was being ramped up to 4,500 to 5,000 a day, which never actually happened) things will be a little clearer. But again if we could do the 15,000 a day they were also "promising" it would give us much better intelligence

My overriding concern is the lack of transparency in the HSE briefings about how many tests are delivering these "results". It must be a deliberate strategy, as they must know the numbers tested. Why would they try and mask all of this? Well we can all speculate I guess.

Corkgirl20

zinfandel wrote: »

What year were you born .? my son was born in cork in 1993 and I am thinking he did not have it done.

I was born in 1992, my sister 1888 and my brother 1986 none of us were offered the vaccine.

I believe nobody in Cork who was born between 1972 right up until 2008 got the vaccine unless you went a sought it privately elsewhere.

Your son would probably still have a scar on his upper arm if he received the vaccine, it leaves quite a mark both my parents born in the 50’s had the vaccine as a child and they still have noticeable marks.

Arghus

is_that_so wrote: »

So is the gist of this that they are "spoofing" on everything?

No, I don't think they are. I think they are doing okay in difficult circumstances to be honest, but making claims about where Ireland ranks internationally for testing without really having hard facts to back it up shows that they aren't perfect and maybe prefer in some instances to bat difficult questions aside with a set response.

JRant

poppers wrote: »

SmTony just confirmed if you die and have covid 19 it reported as the cause even if you die of something else

Well that's just daft really.

Jim_Hodge

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

She said the Republic. I double checked.

So she make a mistake or misspoke. Well done anybody who's never done likewise.

Tomrota

pc7 wrote: »

Most Uni’s now doing it online so could start doing it this way if needed

Yeah and it’s not effective. People have so many different problematic situations at home which hinders learning. It’s not an even playing field at all. For the upper class, it’ll be better though.

Online is no way to start a college course. You might as well just be reading a book instead of paying 3000€ per year for it.