CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Mervyn Skidmore

Be right back wrote: »

Fair play to your sister. She's a great age!

Survived the Spanish Flu and now this.

Vivienne23

easypazz wrote: »

Tuesday May 5th.

I have this pinned as normality as we now know it too , businesses to reopen but social distancing will remain for the foreseeable , it will be up to the businesses to enforce and police it

Corkgirl20

Be right back wrote: »

Fair play to your sister. She's a great age!

She’s doing well to have reached 132 to be fair.

mick987

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

100% wrong. Immune people can carry and spread it

100% wrong, if you are Immune you cant catch it. How can you spread something you don't have.

MipMap

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

According to the latest report on RTE Radio News at One Johnson is in good spirits and spent a comfortable night in hospital. No mention at all of him being on oxygen although it is expected that he will be staying there for all of today for further tests.

Yes but What TEST?

For weeks now they are telling us "This is a new virus" "We know very little about it". "There are no treatments for it".


AFAIK all they can do it treat severe cases with oxygen and respirators.


There are no TESTS that they can do!

Naggdefy

Wolf359f wrote: »

At least we are testing non hospitalized cases. If 25% of infected people need to be hospitalized and the UK are only testing those hospitalized, then that 5000 figure should really be 20000 (for the UK at least)

I hate to break it to you all our testing is mid rank. Lower than Spain and Italy for example..

If ranging from 370 to 440 over the last 6 days that's the equivalent of 5-6,000 cases for a 65m population country.

We're 10th or so in the list of highest Covid deaths.

Thankfully ICU is doing well. Kudos to the HSE and government. And also the general public for the most part. But this has a long way to run.

speckle

BCG some vacination trial links from march. some have been updated since. followed by some TB links re HSE and Hspc.

https://blogs.plos.org/absolutely-maybe/2020/03/16/first-in-human-covid-19-vaccines-tales-of-phase-1-clinical-trials-past/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-vaccine-health-care-workers-bcg/
https://www.mpg.de/14610776/immune-boost-corona-virus

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/australia-bcg-vaccine-trial-covid-19/

https://mobile.twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1239902181253353472

http://www.bcgatlas.org/

https://www.imt.ie/news/not-give-bcg-vaccine-routinely-03-10-2018/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/vaccinepreventable/tuberculosistb/links/

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/vaccinepreventable/tuberculosistb/
Apologies if links duplicated elsewhere. please add too if you have more links.

MipMap

mick987 wrote: »

100% wrong, if you are Immune you cant catch it. How can you spread something you don't have.

How do you think you Know that?
Scientists have consistently said they don't know if you even develop immunity at all never mind for how long. How could they? This virus has not been around long enough to definitively determine the extent of any immunity?

spookwoman

Gonna get dinner and put in the rest of the population numbers after and see whats the story

Nonoperational

It's not that simple though to standardise this to per million based on geographical land borders.


The feeling on the ground is that the hospitals are busy but still have a lot more capacity if needed. It's certainly not tracking the disaster scenario. But the issue will be what to do in a few weeks.

Naggdefy

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Of course they are, That has been made perfectly clear many times and is in line with the patient's, or their family's, wishes. This is nothing unique to Ireland either. It still doesn't take away from the ICU figures or the success in keeping pressure at a manageable level.

Why do so many look for the negatives constantly and for any reason to criticise?

Realism Jim. See my last post praising everyone. But there's a strange complacency here about smashing things this evening. It needs to be called out.

Cork Boy 53

MipMap wrote: »

Yes but What TEST?

For weeks now they are telling us "This is a new virus" "We know very little about it". "There are no treatments for it".


AFAIK all they can do it treat severe cases with oxygen and respirators.


There are no TESTS that they can do!

Chest X rays, blood tests etc.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Naggdefy wrote: »

I hate to break it to you all our testing is mid rank. Lower than Spain and Italy for example..

Our testing is updated weekly. We will have a better idea where our testing is tomorrow.

bekker

MipMap wrote: »

Yes but What TEST?

For weeks now they are telling us "This is a new virus" "We know very little about it". "There are no treatments for it".


AFAIK all they can do it treat severe cases with oxygen and respirators.


There are no TESTS that they can do!

How does 'further tests' morph into 'further test for COVID-19'?

RugbyLad11

Be right back wrote: »

Fair play to your sister. She's a great age!

Jesus she must be in the high risk category for the virus

Rob A. Bank

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Of course they are, That has been made perfectly clear many times and is in line with the patient's, or their family's, wishes. This is nothing unique to Ireland either. It still doesn't take away from the ICU figures or the success in keeping pressure at a manageable level.

Why do so many look for the negatives constantly and for any reason to criticise?

Maybe because all is not rosy in the garden because of the number of cases we have and the number of deaths so far.

The lack of elderly in the ICU is worrying to many, and to suggest that they all signed DNR forms, or their families did, is pushing credibility.

Corkgirl20

speckle wrote: »

do you know if they stopped giving during the emergency/ww2. thanks

Apparently it was introduced to Ireland in 1937 but don’t think it was widely given until the 1950s after the TB outbreak.

MipMap

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

1950s it was introduced to school going kids in Ireland.
My dad born in 1951 remembers getting it in primary school.

I was born in 1955 and got it in primary school when I was 12 - 1968
They were giving it to all the kids then. Surely we can google it

easypazz

Nonoperational wrote: »

It's not that simple though to standardise this to per million based on geographical land borders.


The feeling on the ground is that the hospitals are busy but still have a lot more capacity if needed. It's certainly not tracking the disaster scenario. But the issue will be what to do in a few weeks.

That is correct, no 2 countries report the same way.

Icu beds and deaths are our ones to watch.

It appears a lot of our deaths are in nursing homes,
We also appear to be doing a lot of contact tracing, so people with very few or even no symptoms are getting flagged.

I am good with where we are.

New Home

Beasty wrote: »

Now there clearly have been significant changes in those tested on a daily basis, which could very easily explain the variations above. Equally the overall percentages are higher because they have not been testing 2,000 a day. If it was nearer 1,500 a day on average you then move the percentage of those testing positive to around 25%

This all gives the appearance we are plateauing. But is that really the case? I am not convinced because everything is being limited by the number of tests done, and not everyone with this virus will be tested. It could be that new infections are still growing exponentially, but we simply are not identifying this because we are simply not doing enough tests

Once we see this increased testing delivering results (but bear in mind they were telling us weeks ago that testing was being ramped up to 4,500 to 5,000 a day, which never actually happened) things will be a little clearer. But again if we could do the 15,000 a day they were also "promising" it would give us much better intelligence

My overriding concern is the lack of transparency in the HSE briefings about how many tests are delivering these "results". It must be a deliberate strategy, as they must know the numbers tested. Why would they try and mask all of this? Well we can all speculate I guess.

Agreed 100%.

Naggdefy wrote: »

People are dying outside ICU.

And unless I'm gravely mistaken, those people aren't being put in an induced coma, either.

mick987 wrote: »

100% wrong, if you are Immune you cant catch it. How can you spread something you don't have.

No, you're 100% wrong. Why do you think they've been telling us to wash our hands so much? You might be immune to the disease, you might not spread it through your bodily fluids, but you can still spread it.

Gael23

easypazz wrote: »

Tuesday May 5th.

Did they quote that?

easypazz

Gael23 wrote: »

Did they quote that?

No.

That is my current prediction.

Day after bank holiday.

plodder

I found this link about the history of BCG in Ireland and posted on another thread.

https://dh.tcd.ie/pricediary/about-dorothy-price-her-family/dorothy-stopford-price-and-the-irish-tuberculosis-epidemic/

It was available earlier to some but it wasn't widely distributed before the national scheme instigated by Noel Browne (God bless 'im) in the 50s after a campaign by the pioneering doctor Dorothy Stopford Price.

Wolf359f

Naggdefy wrote: »

I hate to break it to you all our testing is mid rank. Lower than Spain and Italy for example..

If ranging from 370 to 440 over the last 6 days that's the equivalent of 5-6,000 cases for a 65m population country.

We're 10th or so in the list of highest Covid deaths.

Thankfully ICU is doing well. Kudos to the HSE and government. And also the general public for the most part. But this has a long way to run.

Our testing figures will be updated tomorrow, so I would take another look at where we rank then.

So we do more testing, we will find more cases, meaning we're going to be doing worse per mil population than most countries..... can't win, not enough tests, do more tests and find more cases, we're doing bad.

The deaths have been explained, any death certificate which has Covid-19 on it is included in the stats.

Nonoperational

MipMap wrote: »

Yes but What TEST?

For weeks now they are telling us "This is a new virus" "We know very little about it". "There are no treatments for it".


AFAIK all they can do it treat severe cases with oxygen and respirators.


There are no TESTS that they can do!

Assess clinical status.
Bloods looking for markers of severity of infection such as WCC, CRP and bloods shown to track COVID severity such as LDH and Ferritin.
ECG, Troponin and NTBNP to look for signs of evolving myocarditis +/- echocardiograph.
Arterial blood gas to assess pO2 and signs of impending respiratory failure and the need for intubation or NIPPV.
Chest x-ray / CT Thorax to look for evidence of pneumonia.


There are loads and loads of things you can do to risk stratify and if there are any borderline readings at all then the PM of the UK is going to be staying.

declanflynn

Naggdefy wrote: »

Just to put some context on todays figures.

370 new cases is 78.07 per million Irish pop.
16 deaths is 3.38 deaths per million Irish pop.

The UK population is 66.44 million. If we apply our rates to them it's.

5,187 new cases and 225 deaths at their population. So in terms of new cases we have far from 'smashed it'.

and compared to the moon where there are zero reported cases we are doing very badly indeed

Corkgirl20

MipMap wrote: »

I was born in 1955 and got it in primary school when I was 12 - 1968
They were giving it to all the kids then. Surely we can google it

Can’t find an exact year but I found this on hiqa.ie

“The BCG vaccine provides protection against TB. Universal BCG vaccination of newborns was first introduced in Ireland in the 1950s.”

harr

So more than likely we are looking at another 2 weeks of this current lockdown.. then if numbers are favourable restrictions will be eased back to the previous Measures ? After that god knows when we will see things returning to full normality.
Still possible the full lockdown could be restored if numbers start to rise again in the future.

MipMap

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

1950s it was introduced to school going kids in Ireland.
My dad born in 1951 remembers getting it in primary school.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine#Europe


Best I can find UK were doing it from the 1950s and Spain from 1968.
My sister is 5 years older than me and she swears she never got it.
Sounds like your dad and I would have been in primary at around the same time.

Panrich

speckle wrote: »

BCG some vacination trial links from march. some have been updated since. followed by some TB links re HSE and Hspc.

https://blogs.plos.org/absolutely-maybe/2020/03/16/first-in-human-covid-19-vaccines-tales-of-phase-1-clinical-trials-past/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-vaccine-health-care-workers-bcg/
https://www.mpg.de/14610776/immune-boost-corona-virus

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/australia-bcg-vaccine-trial-covid-19/

https://mobile.twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1239902181253353472

http://www.bcgatlas.org/

https://www.imt.ie/news/not-give-bcg-vaccine-routinely-03-10-2018/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/vaccinepreventable/tuberculosistb/links/

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/vaccinepreventable/tuberculosistb/
Apologies if links duplicated elsewhere. please add too if you have more links.

Well don't I feel like an idiot now for weaseling my way out of getting the BCG in school