American response

ceadaoin.

Christy42 wrote: »

The point being made is that asymptomatic people are not being tested anymore which may lead to them infecting more people going forward.

Asymptomatic people would not be affecting the admission rate which may well be going down. So less admissions is not really a counter point.

If they know they have been in contact with an infected person and want to get tested there's nothing stopping them. Just book a test. Its covered by insurance, symptoms or not. Or just say they have symptoms if they cant get a free one without it (doubtful). Its just guidance, not policy.

I thought I read in the past week or so that actually asymptomatic transmission isn't that common? A Chinese study? It flip flops every week it seems.

And less admissions is a counter point to the claim that the government is lying about cases decreasing. I mean, they could be covering it up but if the truth is that they are stable at a high rate or increasing then hospital admissions would be steady or increasing. And they arent. Its the opposite, which suggests that cases are in fact declining.

milli milli

ceadaoin. wrote: »

And less admissions is a counter point to the claim that the government is lying about cases decreasing. I mean, they could be covering it up but if the truth is that they are stable at a high rate or increasing then hospital admissions would be steady or increasing. And they arent. Its the opposite, which suggests that cases are in fact declining.

The COVID numbers are bypassing CDC and going straight to the White House since July, so a decrease in numbers were predicted once this happened. I would take any numbers now with a dose of salt.

ceadaoin.

milli milli wrote: »

The COVID numbers are bypassing CDC and going straight to the White House since July, so a decrease in numbers were predicted once this happened. I would take any numbers now with a dose of salt.

The white house has no input into the hospital numbers. Same with the individual state reporting which is done daily for each state by their own Departments of health. If someone was convinced the numbers were being fudged then they could always go state by state and compare those totals against what the white house puts out I guess to see if there is a discrepancy. Tbh I would always look at my own states website to see the numbers. It wouldn't even occur to me to see what the white house are saying lol

The point stands that if cases were still increasing, then hospital admissions would also be. And they arent. Despite all the reports last month about how arizona/texas hospitals were going to be overwhelmed any day now, they never were.

ExMachina1000

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The white house has no input into the hospital numbers. Same with the individual state reporting which is done daily for each state by their own Departments of health. If someone was convinced the numbers were being fudged then they could always go state by state and compare those totals against what the white house puts out I guess to see if there is a discrepancy.

The point stands that if cases were still increasing, then hospital admissions would also be. And they arent.

The pandemic has moved through the country and daily cases are dropping quickly from peak levels just like every other country.

When will new York governor Andrew Cuomo face scrutiny. 25% of total deaths were in his state. He sent people back to nursing homes. His uselessness and poor decisions helped spread the virus to spread from new York and throughout the country

ceadaoin.

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

The pandemic has moved through the country and daily cases are dropping quickly from peak levels just like every other country.

When will new York governor Andrew Cuomo face scrutiny. 25% of total deaths were in his state. He sent people back to nursing homes. His uselessness and poor decisions helped spread the virus to spread from new York and throughout the country

It hasn't been through the whole country yet, there are still places where it has to hit. But yeah, cases don't just keep rising and rising. They hit a peak and then they subside, lockdowns or not.

Re cuomo, him and deblasio are ruining NYC completely with their refusal to reopen things like indoor dining. If anywhere is safe, its there. Theyve been below 1% positivity for months now

Christy42

ceadaoin. wrote: »

If they know they have been in contact with an infected person and want to get tested there's nothing stopping them. Just book a test. Its covered by insurance, symptoms or not. Or just say they have symptoms if they cant get a free one without it (doubtful). Its just guidance, not policy.

I thought I read in the past week or so that actually asymptomatic transmission isn't that common? A Chinese study? It flip flops every week it seems.

And less admissions is a counter point to the claim that the government is lying about cases decreasing. I mean, they could be covering it up but if the truth is that they are stable at a high rate or increasing then hospital admissions would be steady or increasing. And they arent. Its the opposite, which suggests that cases are in fact declining.

Except the disease is getting less deadly /infecting less vulnerable people. So it might not follow that admissions wouldn't be falling.

This is why you keep track of this stuff when you can.

ceadaoin.

Interesting article from the new york times. In a sample of all the positive tests from 3 states, up to 90% of people who had the virus did not have enough of a viral load to actually be contagious. Isnt this just another way of saying that asymptomatic people are not spreading this virus, just like they said previously and what the recent Chinese study found? Kind of explains the recent CDC position re asymptomatic people not needing to be tested.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/your-coronavirus-test-is-positive-maybe-it-shouldnt-be/ar-BB18uyA7?li=BBnb7Kz

“We’ve been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus or minus — that’s all,” Dr. Mina said. “We’re using that for clinical diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making.”

But yes-no isn’t good enough, he added. It’s the amount of virus that should dictate the infected patient’s next steps. “It’s really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue,” Dr. Mina said.

The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious.

This number of amplification cycles needed to find the virus, called the cycle threshold, is never included in the results sent to doctors and coronavirus patients, although it could tell them how infectious the patients are.


In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found.

On Thursday, the United States recorded 45,604 new coronavirus cases, according to a database maintained by The Times. If the rates of contagiousness in Massachusetts and New York were to apply nationwide, then perhaps only 4,500 of those people may actually need to isolate and submit to contact tracing.

One solution would be to adjust the cycle threshold used now to decide that a patient is infected. Most tests set the limit at 40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect the virus.

Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk — akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left, Dr. Mina said.

Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California, Riverside. “I’m shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive,” she said.

A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she added. Dr. Mina said he would set the figure at 30, or even less. Those changes would mean the amount of genetic material in a patient’s sample would have to be 100-fold to 1,000-fold that of the current standard for the test to return a positive result — at least, one worth acting on.

Officials at the Wadsworth Center, New York’s state lab, have access to C.T. values from tests they have processed, and analyzed their numbers at The Times’s request. In July, the lab identified 794 positive tests, based on a threshold of 40 cycles.

With a cutoff of 35, about half of those tests would no longer qualify as positive. About 70 percent would no longer be judged positive if the cycles were limited to 30.

In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said.

Other experts informed of these numbers were stunned.

“I’m really shocked that it could be that high — the proportion of people with high C.T. value results,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “Boy, does it really change the way we need to be thinking about testing.”

Harry Palmr

Relentless. 1100 dead every day give or take a few hundred, Trump suggesting that if you take New York out of the tally the number is quite good! :pac: 581 deaths per million which is 10th and moving quickly up the charts so that they'll be 6th/7th in the near future.

The most recent suggestion is 400k dead come January. As a large part of the nation moves indoors during the months ending in letter r it's pretty much certain they'll be big jump in community transmission and the civil war regarding masks will really take off.

ExMachina1000

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Relentless. 1100 dead every day give or take a few hundred, Trump suggesting that if you take New York out of the tally the number is quite good! :pac: 581 deaths per million which is 10th and moving quickly up the charts so that they'll be 6th/7th in the near future.

The most recent suggestion is 400k dead come January. As a large part of the nation moves indoors during the months ending in letter r it's pretty much certain they'll be big jump in community transmission and the civil war regarding masks will really take off.

Trump was on tv last night telling people to was their hands, practice social distancing and wear masks.
He said it numerous times. Has been saying it for quite a while now

Carfacemandog

They'll be ahead of Italy also in the next few days most likely, who despite getting hit so badly right at the start are at 588/mn to the US' 581.

NY & NJ still lead deaths in the US but others are cat hung up quickly as those two are registering single digit death most days by the looks of it. Perhaps most damningly they are also only 7th and 12th in cases per capita these days, despite seemingly making up the vast majority of cases in the first few months. The top 6 are Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, Arizona, Alabama and Georgia.

dinorebel

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Trump was on tv last night telling people to was their hands, practice social distancing and wear masks.
He said it numerous times. Has been saying it for quite a while now

And he followed that by insulting Biden for wearing a mask.

ExMachina1000

dinorebel wrote: »

And he followed that by insulting Biden for wearing a mask.

No foul. Il allow it

ExMachina1000

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Trump was on tv last night telling people to was their hands, practice social distancing and wear masks.
He said it numerous times. Has been saying it for quite a while now

His acceptance speech last week had no social distancing...

Harry Palmr

So then Trump was aware Covid 19 was spread airborne with x5 fatality rate of seasonal flu in early February and then he lied to the world.

Leroy42

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Trump was on tv last night telling people to was their hands, practice social distancing and wear masks.
He said it numerous times. Has been saying it for quite a while now

Yes because he was forced. Do you remember the first time he wore a mask in public? 12 July. 6 months it took him to stop calling out mask wearing for even a brief second. He is back at that now since he got his PR opportunity.

Reality has a habit of forcing people to adopt certain positions. With the deaths over 120k or so, he can no longer pretend it is all nothing, going to go away soon.

Carfacemandog

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes because he was forced. Do you remember the first time he wore a mask in public? 12 July. 6 months it took him to stop calling out mask wearing for even a brief second. He is back at that now since he got his PR opportunity.

Reality has a habit of forcing people to adopt certain positions. With the deaths over 120k or so, he can no longer pretend it is all nothing, going to go away soon.

195,259 and counting, though the actual figure is likely considerably above 245,000 if excess mortality is still 25%+ above the official number.

I remember when Trump supporters were scoffing at the idea of it ever reaching 100,000.

hetuzozaho

I didn't realise their deaths per day were still so high. Around a 1000 people dying a day from it?

A few days away from 200,000 deaths.

I'm not shocked that trump knew how dangerous it was. As it was clear he only cared about opening up and the impact on him getting elected again. Mad to be that interested in yourself.

Leroy42

Carfacemandog wrote: »

195,259 and counting, though the actual figure is likely considerably above 245,000 if excess mortality is still 25%+ above the official number.

I meant at the time. I didn't go back and check, the actual number is not the point. The point being that with so many dead Trump could no longer pretend and was forced to come out with the mask.

And yet posters on here are lauding him for repeating the message about washing hands, etc. As if he had always done that. Even now, at the recent RNC and even at the rally yesterday, he is refusing to abide by the rules and laughing at hose that do (Hiden).

Leroy42

hetuzozaho wrote: »

I didn't realise their deaths per day were still so high. Around a 1000 people dying a day from it?

A few days away from 200,000 deaths.

I'm not shocked that trump knew how dangerous it was. As it was clear he only cared about opening up and the impact on him getting elected again. Mad to be that interested in yourself.

I am shocked that anyone is shocked. Is it really news that he knew?

To think he didn't know, one has to admit that the US hadn't a clue what was going on. That is even scarier.

hetuzozaho

Leroy42 wrote: »

I meant at the time. I didn't go back and check, the actual number is not the point. The point being that with so many dead Trump could no longer pretend and was forced to come out with the mask.

And yet posters on here are lauding him for repeating the message about washing hands, etc. As if he had always done that. Even now, at the recent RNC and even at the rally yesterday, he is refusing to abide by the rules and laughing at hose that do (Hiden).

Some posters don't seem to like him being criticised.

Not sure how you end up with such an allegiance to the man myself.

Carfacemandog

hetuzozaho wrote: »

Some posters don't seem to like him being criticised.

Not sure how you end up with such an allegiance to the man myself.

Reading up on Jim Jones, David Koresh or David Miscagive might begin to give you an idea.

stockshares

This is really shocking. Reminds of a scene from the Wire.

It looks like a kid shot the Sheriff's.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1305009737386221568?s=19

Jim_Hodge

stockshares wrote: »

This is really shocking. Reminds of a scene from the Wire.

It looks like a kid shot the Sheriff's.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1305009737386221568?s=19

Shocking. But, what has all this to do with the response to Covid?

hetuzozaho

I don't think the wire even hit the heights of Trumps America we need David Simon to get on it. (although we do have the plot against America at least)

stockshares

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Shocking. But, what has all this to do with the response to Covid?

Sorry, wrong thread.

Danzy

hetuzozaho wrote: »

I don't think the wire even hit the heights of Trumps America we need David Simon to get on it. (although we do have the plot against America at least)

The Wire made Baltimore look better than it is.

I'm not being flippant in saying that.

Leroy42

So Teump held an indoor rally last night, against all the guidelines being put out by his own administration.

Are the restrictions completely worthless, and thus his administration is curbing freedoms and economic activity for n9 apparent reason, or Trump is activaley putting fellow citizens, those he is sworn to protect, in harms way?

Wanderer78

Leroy42 wrote:

Are the restrictions completely worthless, and thus his administration is curbing freedoms and economic activity for n9 apparent reason, or Trump is activaley putting fellow citizens, those he is sworn to protect, in harms way?

Nothing new there, shur he's been doing that since day one in the office

Danzy

Figures from America looking very positive at the moment.

Figures down to about half of peak, deaths trending down, hospitalizations trending down.

With the most profound falls being in population dense States like California and Texas.

Wanderer78

Danzy wrote: »

Figures from America looking very positive at the moment.

Figures down to about half of peak, deaths trending down, hospitalizations trending down.

With the most profound falls being in population dense States like California and Texas.

looks interesting alright!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/