American response

Carfacemandog

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

I used Italy and Ireland as an example of how the virus infection surge times differently in different areas.


New york had its surge long ago and is dropping off ever since. Arizona is 2300 miles from New York. The timeline isn't going to be the same.

If you look at the daily cases for Arizona you will see this is their surge period. Not a second wave

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/arizona/

That surge could and should have been avoided with better governance at a state and federal level though, which is the obvious problem and failing from almost all of the US.

Italy's surge started around March 1st, and NY's around March 17th. We could have responded better in some ways, but by and large did quite well in responding and getting it under control quickly. The UK took it less seriously, and have paid as a result. Results vary throughout Europe around this, which the US had months to take in and digest. They also had options like trying measures taken in Korea and Taiwan who have done arguably better than just about anyone, which if I recall revolved less around lockdowns but much more sternly around the consistent use of masks, sanitisers, etc.

Instead, they chose neither. Those that did attempt proper lockdowns were often intimidated at gunpoint at the encouragement of the president, and the end result is exactly what has been predicted for months - the entire US is basically f*cked, despite having more time than almost any other nation on earth to prepare.

Across the US, the response has been so piss poor across the board that it beggars belief, with almost no exceptions - don't forget Arizona has been adding 100-500 cases a since early/mid April yet decided to continue to reopen anyway. Imagine if Ireland was reopening bars in late April/early May when we still were on 150-200+ cases on most days?

As a result of this, the US has a higher per capita caseload than any country in Europe, despite as you pointed out, the fact that it has not yet even hit the peak of it's initial surge. As I type this, it is 3.15pm in Florida and they are already above 10,000 cases today while Arizona (where it is now just after midday) is at 3,300 and counting. Texas and California will surely be adding another 6-8,000 each by the end of the day, Louisiana another 2,000, Georgia another 3,000, and on and on the list goes.

And as you say, the worst is yet to come as we are only getting into their surge period. It's terrifying, perhaps most of all from how utterly expected it was and preventable it has been.

hetuzozaho

Yes the plan produced by the task force with Fauci and Brix that night was not followed IMO and Trump was standing on the same stage telling the country to open up.

This is Trump only the other day, reads more like a quote from February.

When asked if he really believes the virus will simply disappear, Trump said:

"I do. I do. Yeah sure, at some point. And I think we're going to have a vaccine very soon too.

"We're headed back in a very strong fashion, and I think we're going to be very good with the coronavirus.

"I think that at some point that's going to sort of just disappear, I hope."

Kermit.de.frog

Big reversal by Texas governor.

Masks now mandatory in public in all counties with greater than 20 cases. Underlines the serious of the situation.

Good move none the less. The usual rabble wont comply of course.

Kermit.de.frog

Hermain Cain attended the Trump rally in Oklahoma.

Now hospitalized with coronavirus.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/02/herman-cain-hospitalized-with-covid-19.html

extra gravy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Hermain Cain attended the Trump rally in Oklahoma.

Now hospitalized with coronavirus.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/02/herman-cain-hospitalized-with-covid-19.html

https://twitter.com/THEHermanCain/status/1278444266881273856?s=19

Zero sympathy.

Itssoeasy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Hermain Cain attended the Trump rally in Oklahoma.

Now hospitalized with coronavirus.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/02/herman-cain-hospitalized-with-covid-19.html

Well that's a shock Kermit. Is is any wonder the US is where it is with coronavirus when this is the attitude of politicians.

ChikiChiki

ceadaoin. wrote: »

We did take it seriously in my state. We did flatten the curve. And now all that is going out the window. So all the lockdown did was delay the inevitible and cause financial hardship for so many people. If it had gone on longer the state would be bankrupt. Going back into lockdown would be catastrophic. We are trapped between a rock and a hard place.

The only places going well now are the places where it already ripped through the population, such as new york. So what was the point? If states didn't use the lockdown to prepare healthcare services for the surge that was sure to happen on reopening then what was it for?

If this is the case the American Dream is a big steaming pile of ****

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at Herman Cain being hospitalised. The USA seems to be a cesspit of stupid at the moment. The Trump rally was obviously a brain dead idea in a Pandemic. It still went ahead.

ChikiChiki

ChikiChiki wrote: »

If this is the case the American Dream is a big steaming pile of ****

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at Herman Cain being hospitalised. The USA seems to be a cesspit of stupid at the moment. The Trump rally was obviously a brain dead idea in a Pandemic. It still went ahead.

The US never fully took the need for a lockdown seriously enough ultimately. It became a question of exiting as quickly as possible. Plus the president managed to make masks into a "culture war". The complete contrast between Europe and the US exiting lockdown tells a story.

Tchaikovsky

Politicizing the wearing of masks to suppress a deadly disease is the result of 5 decades of anti-intellectualism in that country.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1278747263439794178

Pinch Flat

Just heard 52,000 diagnoses in the US in a single day. Highest in this pandemic. America winning again!

hetuzozaho

I see California's figures quite bad. Just reading:

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/505706-california-goes-from-covid-19-success-story-to-cautionary-tale

and sounds again like reopening without checking all the boxes for reopening. Newsom allowing counties(58) to make their own decisions on reopening.

The president allowing Governors make their own decisions. Governors allowing counties make their own reopening decisions. Makes things complicated.

Leroy42

Pinch Flat wrote: »

Just heard 52,000 diagnoses in the US in a single day. Highest in this pandemic. America winning again!

Is the numbers of deaths increasing? It seems, from the graphs I am looking at they they are running somewhere around 650+, which is significantly down on the 2700 seen in May.


So is there something to be said for the increased testing increasing the apparent numbers? ie that by actively testing as many as possible they are finding lots of asymptomatic cases, particularly in younger people that will not end up in deaths.

This could be the same in other countries, except that the cases are never tested and found. In many countries, including Ireland AFAIK, a person was only tested if they had symptoms for the type of cases the US are finding are simply not being reported in other countries?

hetuzozaho

Leroy42 wrote: »

So is there something to be said for the increased testing increasing the apparent numbers? ie that by actively testing as many as possible they are finding lots of asymptomatic cases, particularly in younger people that will not end up in deaths.

Are they testing asymptomatic people in texas/florida/california yet?

I've heard talk of universal testing, do you know where they have started?

Christy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is the numbers of deaths increasing? It seems, from the graphs I am looking at they they are running somewhere around 650+, which is significantly down on the 2700 seen in May.


So is there something to be said for the increased testing increasing the apparent numbers? ie that by actively testing as many as possible they are finding lots of asymptomatic cases, particularly in younger people that will not end up in deaths.

This could be the same in other countries, except that the cases are never tested and found. In many countries, including Ireland AFAIK, a person was only tested if they had symptoms for the type of cases the US are finding are simply not being reported in other countries?

If someone was going over the top with testing you would expect a very low positivity rate as they are testing anyone and everyone. This seems like they just have a lot of obvious cases that are not presenting in a lot of other places.

Leroy42

But couldn't they be doing targeted, but still very high amounts, of testing? So 1 person in a bar shows symptoms, they test everyone that they can from the bar and find everyone has it. But very few have symptoms.

In Ireland, I think but could be wrong, that they ask people to isolate and only test them if they develop symptoms. So in that example in Ireland only one case would be the result, while the US may have 30.

Harry Palmr

hetuzozaho wrote: »

I see California's figures quite bad. Just reading:

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/505706-california-goes-from-covid-19-success-story-to-cautionary-tale

and sounds again like reopening without checking all the boxes for reopening. Newsom allowing counties(58) to make their own decisions on reopening.

The president allowing Governors make their own decisions. Governors allowing counties make their own reopening decisions. Makes things complicated.

Which suits Trump no end. As he can throw a few GOP governors overboard without it doing him any real harm re the election.

ceadaoin.

hetuzozaho wrote: »

Are they testing asymptomatic people in texas/florida/california yet?

I've heard talk of universal testing, do you know where they have started?

Pretty sure in most places you can get a test, symptoms or not and definitely if you've been in contact with a confirmed case. you just make an appointment or go to an urgent care. As I said on the other thread, I got one on Wednesday with the mildest of mild symptoms (probably allergies tbh but id rather be sure) Still waiting for results. Mine was free with insurance, but there are sites here that are free without it. And there is a big demand. Over 10000 were done on Wednesday, almost 12,000 yesterday. I'm sure its the same everywhere.

Some of the rise is due to more testing and some is an increase. But youd have to wonder, if they are finding so many with so much testing, with 27% of people testing positive in the likes of Arizona at times, what is the true number? CDC are saying 10 times more. Could be even higher than that. Seems like its still been spreading this whole time, lockdown or not to get to that point.

Edit: re florida, just saw Dr Birx calling for anyone who has been to a gathering in the past 4 weeks and doesn't have symptoms to go get tested, so yes florida is testing asymptomatic people.

Jim_Hodge

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Pretty sure in most places you can get a test, symptoms or not and definitely if you've been in contact with a confirmed case. you just make an appointment or go to an urgent care. As I said on the other thread, I got one on Wednesday with the mildest of mild symptoms (probably allergies tbh but id rather be sure) Still waiting for results. Mine was free with insurance, but there are sites here that are free without it. And there is a big demand. Over 10000 were done on Wednesday, almost 12,000 yesterday. I'm sure its the same everywhere.

Some of the rise is due to more testing and some is an increase. But youd have to wonder, if they are finding so many with so much testing, with 27% of people testing positive in the likes of Arizona at times, what is the true number? CDC are saying 10 times more. Could be even higher than that. Seems like its still been spreading this whole time, lockdown or not to get to that point.

The level of testing per capita is about 27th in the world.

As for the "lockdown or not", it's the NOT that's the problem. Places reopened ludicrously early instead of giving it a bit more time to suppress the spread.

ceadaoin.

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

The level of testing per capita is about 27th in the world.

As for the "lockdown or not", it's the NOT that's the problem. Places reopened ludicrously early instead of giving it a bit more time to suppress the spread.

Yes, they did and the people just went back to normal. Even in places where they met the WHO recommended positive rate before reopening, they are seeing a rise because people are idiots. This 4th July weekend is going to be a ****show. People are done with social distancing it seems.

Christy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

But couldn't they be doing targeted, but still very high amounts, of testing? So 1 person in a bar shows symptoms, they test everyone that they can from the bar and find everyone has it. But very few have symptoms.

In Ireland, I think but could be wrong, that they ask people to isolate and only test them if they develop symptoms. So in that example in Ireland only one case would be the result, while the US may have 30.

Unless they are far far far better at identifying potential cases than pretty much everyone else no.

hetuzozaho

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Edit: re florida, just saw Dr Birx calling for anyone who has been to a gathering in the past 4 weeks and doesn't have symptoms to go get tested, so yes florida is testing asymptomatic people.

Ah nice. Just seen it there now too.

We only do it as part of contact tracing here I believe.
https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing/contact-tracing.html

"If you are a close contact...arrange a coronavirus test for you, even if you do not have symptoms"

Nice and proactive advice from Dr Brix!

hetuzozaho

Leroy42 wrote: »

But couldn't they be doing targeted, but still very high amounts, of testing? So 1 person in a bar shows symptoms, they test everyone that they can from the bar and find everyone has it. But very few have symptoms.

In Ireland, I think but could be wrong, that they ask people to isolate and only test them if they develop symptoms. So in that example in Ireland only one case would be the result, while the US may have 30.

We ask asymptomatic people to get tested as part of contract testing.

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing/contact-tracing.html

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/NicoleSGrigg/status/1279073152924975105

ceadaoin.

hetuzozaho wrote: »

Ah nice. Just seen it there now too.

We only do it as part of contact tracing here I believe.
https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing/contact-tracing.html

"If you are a close contact...arrange a coronavirus test for you, even if you do not have symptoms"

Nice and proactive advice from Dr Brix!

I actually think the big increase in testing this week here is people wanting to check that they're ok before going to 4th july gatherings. Thats what some were saying who were interviewed at testing sites. Unfortunately the amount of tests has led to a delay in results so they won't know. This is what the nevada governor had to say about this weekend

“Please, please, I beg of you. Don’t get into large groups. Do not get into an area where you can’t be socially distanced. You have to be six feet away from the person next to you and most of all please wear a mask. Wearing a mask works. It’s not partisan, it’s not political. It’s the right thing to do. It saves lives.”

Gov. Sisolak says wearing a mask and stay socially distant is key to keeping businesses open after the Fourth of July.

So basically if we **** it up, its back into closures. I hope people listen. I actually saw several people wearing MAGA masks last week so maybe the message is getting through. I mean, they are cringeworthy but at least its a mask lol.

ceadaoin.

Donald Trump Jrs girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, has tested positive for the virus. A few days ago they both were seen at a packed party in the Hamptons without masks. Wonder how many at that gathering have been infected

hetuzozaho

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Donald Trump Jrs girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, has tested positive for the virus. A few days ago they both were seen at a packed party in the Hamptons without masks. Wonder how many at that gathering have been infected

"If only they’d stop the testing this could’ve been prevented." - top reddit comment.

alchemist33

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243985782.html

This used to be a joke but now it's happened. Mexico has closed the border with Arizona, although Mexico isn't doing great either.

ceadaoin.

alchemist33 wrote: »

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243985782.html

This used to be a joke but now it's happened. Mexico has closed the border with Arizona, although Mexico isn't doing great either.

Pity we can't do the same here. They'll be flooding in for the weekend after their bars closed, even more so with the day thats in it.

We, as in the state, are in a bind, we need the money but we don't want the virus spreading either. The state budget is in a 800$ million deficit after the shutdowns, if it has to happen again Vegas is done for a few years at least. I hope people can follow the mandatory mask rule for everyone's sake.

We don't have to be here but it's our home now, we'll stick it out as long as we can.

hetuzozaho

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Pity we can't do the same here. They'll be flooding in for the weekend after their bars closed, even more so with the day thats in it. We, as in the state, are in a bind, we need the money but we don't want the virus spreading either. The state budget is in a 800$ million deficit after the shutdowns, if it has to happen again Vegas is done for a few years at least. We don't have to be here but it's our home now, we'll stick it out as long as we can.

800million sounds like peanuts to some of the companies involved in the strip! They'd probably be interested in getting things up and running anyway?