European leaders warn coronavirus breakup of union

BonnieSituation

Danzy wrote: »

Look at the fuss made over the 500bn. While there are cheap loans on top from ECB etc, more debt on countries is not going to grow them out of this.

Mechanisms will be put in place, solutions found you say.

They're needed now.

2 trillion is the estimate needed for the Eurozone in the next 12 months.

The danger for the EU is that the markets might call their bluff.

The markets aren't really in a position to dictate though.

The EU is the richest part of the planet. It makes no sense for the "markets" to start getting edgy and threatening it

Where else will they ship their cash via bond purchases? America's Trumpian pyramid scheme? Increasingly volatile China which seems to have peaked economically and is gonna slide a bit.

Russia?

Cmon.

The thing is, we're just at the end of the usefulness of infinite growth. Covid has brought it to an end sooner than hoped. But we were on the cusp of a massive recession anyhow. It's time to step back now and look at what we got!

ArchXStanton

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I'm sorry but I just can't take that kind of talk seriously. I mean maybe if we get Ursula von der Leyen going on about enemies of the people but otherwise this just sounds like 'everyone who disagrees with me is a Nazi/Commie'.

y'know years ago I was scoffed at on this very website for saying the EU was heading for a federal superstate...look how that worked out...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM2Ql3wOGcU

Eerily similar..

LeinsterDub

ArchXStanton wrote: »

y'know years ago I was scoffed at on this very website for saying the EU was heading for a federal superstate...look how that worked out...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM2Ql3wOGcU

Eerily similar..

What's that some crank has posted a video on YouTube. Well that's me convinced!

And this federal superstate how is it going to achieved when all the member states have a veto?

Have you decided to accept time is linear again?

Danzy

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The markets aren't really in a position to dictate though.

The EU is the richest part of the planet. It makes no sense for the "markets" to start getting edgy and threatening it

Where else will they ship their cash via bond purchases? America's Trumpian pyramid scheme? Increasingly volatile China which seems to have peaked economically and is gonna slide a bit.

Russia?

Cmon.

The thing is, we're just at the end of the usefulness of infinite growth. Covid has brought it to an end sooner than hoped. But we were on the cusp of a massive recession anyhow. It's time to step back now and look at what we got!

The markets will be rational, well as rational as they get, which isn't much. It's not being edgy, they'll prefer to sit on it than invest in instability or a block without a clear and unified plan.

Italy's industrial heartland, a significant economic region in Europe and the world is battered senseless, In many ways wiped out, that is driving an increase in Italian bonds, that is a serious issue for the Eurozone.

The markets will just sit it out, which in itself is a crisis.

Russia and China for their massive faults are willing to stand behind their block and currency , the EU patently does not, given the friction in the last few weeks, what happens when the numbers run in to the trillions. 2 trillion is the estimated cost to stabilize this.

Where do we go politically, we've a centre that is now discredited, a left that is in a upper middle class activist bubble and a right that is as split as the entire spectrum.

The entire depth of the great depression, which built over 4 years has been matched in 4 weeks.

The EU commission gave a heartfelt apology on the behavious of the last few weeks by itself and many key finance Ministers, too late though, that coldness will not be forgotten and has done longterm damage to the EU among many of its supporters, sceptical colleagues now. They can see the damage now but...

I'd be very concerned that democracy itself may have to be suspended in parts of western Europe in years to come or Democratic controlled martial law to confuse the terms.

This will remake the world, same as WW1 did.

Danzy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

What's that some crank has posted a video on YouTube. Well that's me convinced!

And this federal superstate how is it going to achieved when all the member states have a veto?

Have you decided to accept time is linear again?

Many in the EU do seem to want a federal Europe, Guy Verhofstadt being one of the most prominent and vocal.

That's over though, the challenge now is to stop the euro from collapsing.

It will take Germany and Holland etc throwing out all domestic political decision, throwing away the misplaced German phobia of monetary intervention by central banks.

The challenge may be too big though, the nature of the times.

I don't want that to happen but lesser crises toppled firmer and well established Societies in the past.

A mitigation strategy might be applied and work and hold it at a low level for years to come.

Hopefully but it certainly means many rough years ahead, rougher than we've ever seen it.

McGiver

ArchXStanton wrote:

To busy fawning over Greta.... and you want to hand this lot more power

Yeah I want. You mean to lot like Mairead McGuinness, the vice-president of the European Parliament, or Phil Hogan, the European Commissioner for Trade.

McGiver

ArchXStanton wrote:

It's a wannabe USSR... Just in the colour blue

You have feck no clue about the USSR. If you say something like this in a discussion about the EU then you're automatically disqualified for stupidity.

My parents lived in a USSR satellite, you've absolutely no idea what you talking about. And frankly, it's deeply insulting to compare the EU with USSR to people who had experience both with the EU and with the USSR or USSR puppet regimes.

There's absolutely no comparison between the EU and USSR. Exactly zero.

McGiver

ArchXStanton wrote: »

y'know years ago I was scoffed at on this very website for saying the EU was heading for a federal superstate...look how that worked out...

Federal EU is on the table since Schuman's declaration in 1951. It's on the table since the Treaty of Rome 1957. Every single EU treaty has gone into that direction. Slowly and gradually, with the approval of all the member states. So "the EU is heading for a federation" isn't exactly a great revelation. It's been the case for 70 years.
It's a matter of when and how not if, since day one.
Now, in terms of time frame - who knows? Once all member states agree to it and no one vetoes it. You may need to wait another 50 years.

Note: I don't know what superstate is... Are all federations superstates? Australia, India, Canada, Brazil, US.

McGiver

Danzy wrote: »

Many in the EU do seem to want a federal Europe, Guy Verhofstadt being one of the most prominent and vocal.
That's over though, the challenge now is to stop the euro from collapsing.

On the contrary. Fixing the Euro requires more political integration and more transfer of the competencies to the EU.

Monetary policy is controlled by the EU whilst fiscal policy is not. This divergence is the core issue Euro is facing. Some fiscal policy instruments will have to be moved to the EU to fix this systemic fault.

Danzy

McGiver wrote: »

On the contrary. Fixing the Euro requires more political integration and more transfer of the competencies to the EU.

Monetary policy is controlled by the EU whilst fiscal policy is not. This divergence is the core issue Euro is facing. Some fiscal policy instruments will have to be moved to the EU to fix those systemic fault.

It will come from the ECB going on a QE binge, directly supporting spending or it won't matter what divergence there is.

The 2nd part has treaty problems.

The measures to date have bought time, transferring competencies will not float when there is a several trillion shortfall besides bo country will agree to it now, not Germany,not the Dutch and certainly not the Italian.

Yet if they did, so what, without write downs, in all but name or massive stimulus it will only be what if.

I'd say you would be genuinely surprised if the EU ended over this, many of its key architects would not though.

McGiver

Danzy wrote: »

It will come from the ECB going on a QE binge, directly supporting spending or it won't matter what divergence there is.

The 2nd part has treaty problems.

It will happen this time. Last time they managed to get away with it, also UK would sabotage it. This time UK is gone and there situation in Italy and Spain will be much worse. Treaty change will happen if need be.

BonnieSituation

McGiver wrote: »

Federal EU is on the table since Schuman's declaration in 1951. It's on the table since the Treaty of Rome 1957. Every single EU treaty has gone into that direction. Slowly and gradually, with the approval of all the member states. So "the EU is heading for a federation" isn't exactly a great revelation. It's been the case for 70 years.
It's a matter of when and how not if, since day one.
Now, in terms of time frame - who knows? Once all member states agree to it and no one vetoes it. You may need to wait another 50 years.

Note: I don't know what superstate is... Are all federations superstates? Australia, India, Canada, Brazil, US.

I think it's fascinating that right wingers constantly parrot the "Federal Europe" is bad but "Federal USA " is good.

It's mind numbing.

On a personal level, why would you not want to move to another country and have enhanced rights?

Why would you not want the opportunities that come with the EU?

Federation will happen when all States want it to happen. So long after we're gone.

I just don't see what has to be gained from regressing to the insular shítehole that we were.

Danzy

McGiver wrote: »

It will happen this time. Last time they managed to get away with it, also UK would sabotage it. This time UK is gone and there situation in Italy and Spain will be much worse. Treaty change will happen if need be.

The UK were years ahead of the EU in QE and at a much more significant level.

That delay probably helped deliver Brexit as it destroyed the idea for enough that the EU was stable and always prosperous.

The situation in Germany and France is much worse as well.

The package agreed buys 12 months, will a new treaty which turns European politics on its head arrive in that time?

Merkel's government would have to fall to achieve it and be replaced by one with such a margin it could survive the reaction at home. Hard to see that happening.

BonnieSituation

Danzy wrote: »

The markets will be rational, well as rational as they get, which isn't much. It's not being edgy, they'll prefer to sit on it than invest in instability or a block without a clear and unified plan.

Italy's industrial heartland, a significant economic region in Europe and the world is battered senseless, In many ways wiped out, that is driving an increase in Italian bonds, that is a serious issue for the Eurozone.

The markets will just sit it out, which in itself is a crisis.

Russia and China for their massive faults are willing to stand behind their block and currency , the EU patently does not, given the friction in the last few weeks, what happens when the numbers run in to the trillions. 2 trillion is the estimated cost to stabilize this.

Where do we go politically, we've a centre that is now discredited, a left that is in a upper middle class activist bubble and a right that is as split as the entire spectrum.

The entire depth of the great depression, which built over 4 years has been matched in 4 weeks.

The EU commission gave a heartfelt apology on the behavious of the last few weeks by itself and many key finance Ministers, too late though, that coldness will not be forgotten and has done longterm damage to the EU among many of its supporters, sceptical colleagues now. They can see the damage now but...

I'd be very concerned that democracy itself may have to be suspended in parts of western Europe in years to come or Democratic controlled martial law to confuse the terms.

This will remake the world, same as WW1 did.

This is why I think things aren't going to be so bad.

Every were is unstable and that in a sense is stability. If we're all in the mire, then we will have to work to get out of it together.

There's no other option.

---

The suspension of democracy canard is a something that I wouldn't be overly worried about unless I was in a place I was already worried about, ie. Hungary or Poland. And tbh, they'll just end up as bereft backwaters if they keep going down the roads they are going.

BonnieSituation

Danzy wrote: »

The UK were years ahead of the EU in QE and at a much more significant level.

That delay probably helped deliver Brexit as it destroyed the idea for enough that the EU was stable and always prosperous.

The situation in Germany and France is much worse as well.

What exactly did the UK QE deliver though?

They've had a pretty stagnant economy and just had huge transfers of wealth from the middle classes to the uber-wealthy.

To use the UK as a positive example is bizarre. Especially now they have discovered the cash under the mattress all of a sudden.

Germany are right to be cautious. But they will always do what's right for Europe. WW2 weighs so heavily. They will never let it stray that way if they can help it.

Danzy

BonnieSituation wrote: »

This is why I think things aren't going to be so bad.

Every were is unstable and that in a sense is stability. If we're all in the mire, then we will have to work to get out of it together.

There's no other option.

---

The suspension of democracy canard is a something that I wouldn't be overly worried about unless I was in a place I was already worried about, ie. Hungary or Poland. And tbh, they'll just end up as bereft backwaters if they keep going down the roads they are going.

Not bad is still bad though, I'd look more to places like France, Italy, Spain, Belgium.

The Eastern States aren't that far removed from hard times and aren't in as much debt, they started so low the only way was up.

It can be averted, massive stimulus, restructuring etc, have unemployment not stay above 30% for too long, a year max, within 5 to 10 years things will stabilize out.
Hopefully.


Goodwill and concerted global effort may not be enough though. The impact to date ensures a global contraction, widely estimated at around -9%, -12% in the Eurozone.

They are figures that match the entire great depression but crammed into a few months.

I think we'll pull through but there will be very tough times ahead. Tougher than most of us have seen.

ArchXStanton

McGiver wrote: »

Yeah I want. You mean to lot like Mairead McGuinness, the vice-president of the European Parliament, or Phil Hogan, the European Commissioner for Trade.

Yep, the EU seems to be populated by failed politicians and complete maniacs Verhofstadt, Timmermans, Tusk, Juncker etc etc

A second shot on the gravy train, and what a gravy train it is... Choo choo

Danzy

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What exactly did the UK QE deliver though?

They've had a pretty stagnant economy and just had huge transfers of wealth from the middle classes to the uber-wealthy.

To use the UK as a positive example is bizarre. Especially now they have discovered the cash under the mattress all of a sudden.

Germany are right to be cautious. But they will always do what's right for Europe. WW2 weighs so heavily. They will never let it stray that way if they can help it.

I didn't say Britain was a positive example, it just came out of the last crisis than the euro zone did.

No glory in that.

It went for a milder austerity than seen in the euro zone, though austerity of any kind was counterproductive in such a crash for all.

It now has opened up a line where the option of Gov't spending being directly financed by the central bank is an option.

That's banned for the ECB.

Germany needs to forget WW2 and live in the now.

Merkel knows as well as amy economist that an event as deep as the great depression is here, silence is deafening. They are making the same mistakes they did after the Wall St. Crash.

ArchXStanton

McGiver wrote: »

Federal EU is on the table since Schuman's declaration in 1951. It's on the table since the Treaty of Rome 1957. Every single EU treaty has gone into that direction. Slowly and gradually, with the approval of all the member states. So "the EU is heading for a federation" isn't exactly a great revelation. It's been the case for 70 years.
It's a matter of when and how not if, since day one.
Now, in terms of time frame - who knows? Once all member states agree to it and no one vetoes it. You may need to wait another 50 years.

Note: I don't know what superstate is... Are all federations superstates? Australia, India, Canada, Brazil, US.

You would be very surprised at the amount of people that don't know that, even here... Makes you wonder why they had to remove mention of flags, anthems etc to hide its political ambitions in the Lisbon treaty or why Heath and other ministers lied to the public in the UK... Judging by the other thread on here about the EU federalising doesn't seem to be much appetite for it..

I wonder will the people get a vote on that or will the EU let the plebs have their silly little theatrics and then step in to tell them they voted the wrong way there of course they wanted more EU...

BonnieSituation

ArchXStanton wrote: »

You would be very surprised at the amount of people that don't know that

I don't think he would be. I mean you think the EU is a monolith set out to control us all.

What benefit has our soggy rock got for anyone? Shanwick ACC? Bodhrans? Think logically man.

even here... Makes you wonder why they had to remove mention of flags, anthems etc

What are ya talking about here?

The Treaty of Rome (2004) was rejected by the people when tested. So a new treaty was agreed (Lisbon). It would have been a bit stupid to merely send it for approval again in the same guise wouldn't it?

Big old monolith EU listened to its members. Imagine that.

to hide its political ambitions in the Lisbon treaty

What ambitions? Hidden where? You know these treaties can be read by anyone don't you?

or why Heath and other ministers lied to the public in the UK...

What lies?

The UK actually got a chance to leave the EEC and rejected it. So again, what are you on about?

Judging by the other thread on here about the EU federalising doesn't seem to be much appetite for it..

Exactly. So why do you and your ilk keep bringing it up?

ArchXStanton

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I don't think he would be. I mean you think the EU is a monolith set out to control us all.

What benefit has our soggy rock got for anyone? Shanwick ACC? Bodhrans? Think logically man.




What are ya talking about here?

The Treaty of Rome (2004) was rejected by the people when tested. So a new treaty was agreed (Lisbon). It would have been a bit stupid to merely send it for approval again in the same guise wouldn't it?

Big old monolith EU listened to its members. Imagine that.



What ambitions? Hidden where? You know these treaties can be read by anyone don't you?


What lies?

The UK actually got a chance to leave the EEC and rejected it. So again, what are you on about?



Exactly. So why do you and your ilk keep bringing it up?

I've covered most of this back in the thread numerous times, you and your ilk just seem to be deliberately obtuse...

BonnieSituation

ArchXStanton wrote: »

I've covered most of this back in the thread numerous times, you and your ilk just seem to be deliberately obtuse...

Did you now? Shouldn't be too hard for you to copy and paste your answers so?

Otherwise, well, I guess I'll have to take your word for it.

I mean, you clearly know what you're talking about.

:rolleyes:

ozmo

Brexit UK rags and US supporters seem intent on reporting eminent breakup of EU- but noone inside EU is seriously considering it.
End of the no borders though might not be a bad idea?- Doesnt affect us much being out of Schengen rules..

Danzy

ozmo wrote: »

Brexit UK rags and US supporters seem intent on reporting eminent breakup of EU- but noone inside EU is seriously considering it.
End of the no borders though might not be a bad idea?- Doesnt affect us much being out of Schengen rules..

Jacques Delors, as near a father to the EU as one can be, Conté and Costa leaders of Italy and Portugal, Norbert Röttgen, probably the person to replace Merkel.

All committed supporters of the EU, all warning of such.

A recent study by European economists, said 4tn would be the eventual cost to keep the system afloat.

LeinsterDub

ozmo wrote: »

Brexit UK rags and US supporters seem intent on reporting eminent breakup of EU- but noone inside EU is seriously considering it.
End of the no borders though might not be a bad idea?- Doesnt affect us much being out of Schengen rules..

The cost on trade would be massive and what would it achive? Illegal mirgration isn't using the offical channels anyway