Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

lawrencesummers

C14N wrote: »

Probably wouldn't want to. This would just encourage politicians to drive inflation up, which isn't really a good thing.

Most of them couldn’t drive a car.

They wouldn’t know where to start with inflation.

L1011

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Pity we can’t link politicians pay to inflation.

Politicians pay is linked to public sector pay, with their unions being quite strong on insuring gets inflationary increases (at least!). They haven't been able to set their own salaries for quite some time.

Claw Hammer

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Yes, I recall it being about 350 for a shared room near UCD and 500 for a room in a house. On campus was 4500 to 6000 IIRC.

UCD won't be issuing guidance for their on campus attendance until the end of July so we won't see any take up of student accommodation before then. It does leave it quite tight though to inform potential students as to when they can attend on campus next year.

I find the sharing market is a good guide to the overall market. When the market is weak there is little demand for sharing and when it is strong there is massive demand. I met a girl who has just taken a room near UCD. She is moving in now because she expects it to be manic in September. Most rooms near UCD where she looked were asking North of €800. When she got a room for a good bit less she took it. When she moved in the house mates told her that the landlord has already taken deposits on two rooms which will be vacated over the next month and the new occupants will be paying from the day each room goes empty.
That is a radical change from even 6 months ago.

Amadan Dubh

Interesting on the September point again. Is college really that big of a deal to the rental market usually? There is arguably significantly more accommodation available this year as we now have purpose built student accommodation sitting vacant as well as hotel flexibility options. But then again, maybe the rent-a-room scheme is dry for fears of pesky young people bringing in covid to the house.

But just on that September point as it is mentioned around as some time for a big wave of workers and students looking for accommodation - I think there is slim to no change that a mass swarming of public transport can happen at the rate the easing of restrictions is going. To fully reopen colleges and also drop the "WFH unless you need to be in the office" guidance would also mean fully dropping masks and social distancing in society within the next 8 weeks. However, the IT has published in the last hour or so that NPHET will not be recommending reopening indoor dining for all of July and August. I don't like where this is going but it looks like we are being braced for autumn and winter restrictions in some form.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/accelerated-vaccine-rollout-will-not-alter-outlook-for-july-august-glynn-1.4609811

When asked about the possible return of indoor dining, Dr Glynn said that given what European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and World Health Organisation were saying “we could not see indoor dining reopening in July or August; there was no point in us pretending that we could come back in three or four weeks time and that all would be well.

“We can see from our figures that the incidence is going to be higher in three or four weeks’ time. Much of Europe will be in a fourth wave of this disease in three or four weeks’ time,” Dr Glynn said.

Claw Hammer

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Interesting on the September point again. Is college really that big of a deal to the rental market usually? There is arguably significantly more accommodation available this year as we now have purpose built student accommodation sitting vacant as well as hotel flexibility options. But then again, maybe the rent-a-room scheme is dry for fears of pesky young people bringing in covid to the house.

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Student accommodation is highly significant in Dublin. Purpose-built units can only accommodate a small fraction of the student market. Hotel schemes may suit some students but this will entail travelling every weekend with everything that cannot be fitted in a locker on-campus brought home. The hotels will also not guarantee availability and will serve the students out as soon as better paying customers appear. There could well be around exam time. Most students want self catering with the least possible amount of time spent travelling. The student population in Dublin will be greater in the next academic year with new places announced in most colleges. There are also large numbers of foreign students coming to Dublin in preference to the UK because of Brexit.

Amadan Dubh

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Student accommodation is highly significant in Dublin. Purpose-built units can only accommodate a small fraction of the student market. Hotel schemes may suit some students but this will entail travelling every weekend with everything that cannot be fitted in a locker on-campus brought home. The hotels will also not guarantee availability and will serve the students out as soon as better paying customers appear. There could well be around exam time. Most students want self catering with the least possible amount of time spent travelling. The student population in Dublin will be greater in the next academic year with new places announced in most colleges. There are also large numbers of foreign students coming to Dublin in preference to the UK because of Brexit.

I don't doubt the numbers to be enrolled for university in Dublin universities for the forthcoming semester, but I have significant doubts about that manifesting to a squeeze on rentals in the next 8 weeks. With bricks n mortar retail in a seemingly unstoppable downward spiral and hospitality suppressed, college students will be factoring in the likely prospect of little to no part time hours to fund their living away from home. This is extremely awful for them but it is a consequence of our government's pedestrian approach to relinquishing their stranglehold on the power they have.

I know universities won't put any guidance out until the end of the month but that IT article is getting at little to no indoor dining for the next 2 months, which means it is unlikely we'll be saying au revoir to masks and social distancing in 8 weeks, which of course is a prerequisite to allowing full capacity on public transport and in lecture halls, among other settings.

Claw Hammer

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I don't doubt the numbers to be enrolled for university in Dublin universities for the forthcoming semester, but I have significant doubts about that manifesting to a squeeze on rentals in the next 8 weeks. With bricks n mortar retail in a seemingly unstoppable downward spiral and hospitality suppressed, college students will be factoring in the likely prospect of little to no part time hours to fund their living away from home. This is extremely awful for them but it is a consequence of our government's pedestrian approach to relinquishing their stranglehold on the power they have.

The indoor dining ban will not result in college places not being taken up. The universities are desperate to end remote lecturing. Some final year students have only spent a few months on campus in their entire university careers to date. During the pandemic many homeless have been absorbed into existing accommodation, many landlords have sold, many more will sell, there has been no significant construction of accommodation over the past 18 months so thousands of students looking for accommodation in the next two months will have major implications up and down the market.

Blut2

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The universities are desperate to end remote lecturing. Some final year students have only spent a few months on campus in their entire university careers to date.

This is doubtlessly true. But its not up to the universities, or the students, unfortunately. When NPHET are now recommending no indoor dining (in socially distanced pods of 6 mind you, not even a free for all) until October, it seems very unlikely that we'll see students cramming into lecture halls 500 persons deep at the start of September in universities.

Amadan Dubh

There is a poster here who apparently helps source accommodation for foreign students I'd be curious what they are seeing with regards to demand at the moment / outlook. Can't remember the poster now unfortunately!

Claw Hammer

Blut2 wrote: »

This is doubtlessly true. But its not up to the universities, or the students, unfortunately. When NPHET are now recommending no indoor dining (in socially distanced pods of 6 mind you, not even a free for all) until October, it seems very unlikely that we'll see students cramming into lecture halls 500 persons deep at the start of September in universities.

Vaccinating students and or testing will be a priority. There may not be 500 in a lecture room but there will be more face time.

dotsman

Breakingnews.ie Article

See the last section "Confident colleges will return"

TBH, with the pharmacists rolling out the vaccines to Over-18's I can see pretty much every student being vaccinated in the next 2 months. I mean, what kind of student is going to want to miss fresher's week? Especially having been stuck at home for the previous 18 months?

C14N

dotsman wrote: »

Breakingnews.ie Article

See the last section "Confident colleges will return"

TBH, with the pharmacists rolling out the vaccines to Over-18's I can see pretty much every student being vaccinated in the next 2 months. I mean, what kind of student is going to want to miss fresher's week? Especially having been stuck at home for the previous 18 months?

You'd imagine Fresher's Week would even be for both first and second year students this time, given that people who started in 2020 missed out massively.

At the same time though, 3rd-5th year students will probably not be quite as pushed to get back in. I'm sure they'll still want to, but as years go on in college, less time is spent on socialising and more on study in my own experience.

Amadan Dubh

Word on the street is that the boots on the ground will be partying come September. Happy days all round. Now we monitor the rental market!

Phat Cat

Lots of places seem to be getting snapped up recently, regardless of the price. I saw a 1 bedroom BER G rated apartment above a Charity Shop in Dún Laoghaire for €1950pm. It'll probably be let in the next few weeks even though it's ridiculously over priced.

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-49-georges-street-upper-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin/3435716

Ozark707

Phat Cat wrote: »

Lots of places seem to be getting snapped up recently, regardless of the price. I saw a 1 bedroom BER G rated apartment above a Charity Shop in Dún Laoghaire for €1950pm. It'll probably be let in the next few weeks even though it's ridiculously over priced.

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-49-georges-street-upper-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin/3435716

What are the HAP limits for a 1 bed in that area I wonder. If they are anyway approaching that figure then maybe there will be demand. Honeypark has one beds for less than 1800 so if they are not being snapped up then it might indicate a problem letting this for 1950

C14N

Phat Cat wrote: »

Lots of places seem to be getting snapped up recently, regardless of the price. I saw a 1 bedroom BER G rated apartment above a Charity Shop in Dún Laoghaire for €1950pm. It'll probably be let in the next few weeks even though it's ridiculously over priced.

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-49-georges-street-upper-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin/3435716

Weird that they clearly did spend some money refurbishing it and seemingly didn't bother to do anything about the terrible energy rating.

Ray Palmer

C14N wrote: »

Weird that they clearly did spend some money refurbishing it and seemingly didn't bother to do anything about the terrible energy rating.

If you have a look at the property you can kind of see why. The can't use external insulation or injection. To put in internal insulation reduces doorways and opening causing several issue. They can't replace the window type due to age of building either.

The would have had to at least double their budget to change the BER grade which itself very inaccurate. It may be very pleasant and easy to heat BER doesn't really tell you that

Claw Hammer

Ozark707 wrote: »

What are the HAP limits for a 1 bed in that area I wonder. If they are anyway approaching that figure then maybe there will be demand. Honeypark has one beds for less than 1800 so if they are not being snapped up then it might indicate a problem letting this for 1950

It looks big. Separate kitchen and a large bedroom by the looks of it. A lot of 1 beds had a combined Kitchen/living area and a small bedroom. It is also own front door. It is a massive amount to pay monthly for a 1 or even a 2 bed apartment but it is not out of synch with comparable properties..

Amadan Dubh

Yeah, objectively it is obscene money but relative to what is out there for under 2k pm it's actually alright. Lots of space for a one bed.

agoodpunt

A good rent in a choice location ideal for a couple pulling in at least 8k amonth

Ozark707

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117600052#Comment_117600052

Dropped now to 1850 (do you know if it was long on for 1950?). Sensible move as they were always going to struggle to get close to 2K for this.

Phat Cat

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117618635#Comment_117618635

It was only up a few weeks but not surprised it dropped in price, especially with that BER rating, heating that place in the winter won't be cheap

JimmyVik

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117601027#Comment_117601027

They probably just didnt bother getting it tested again. Very few people actually care about energy rating when they see how its calculated.

Claw Hammer

https://www.irishmirror.ie/lifestyle/homes-and-property/man-goes-viral-sharing-picture-24613663

Is this typical/ normal? An agent i spoke to last week says demand for rentals is very weak.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117663975#Comment_117663975

Well as some here pointed out supply on daft is tightening now (and we have not even hit August). Dublin is now less than 2k units. A small filter I had setup (6/7 areas for 2 bed) had at one stage ~70 places. Yesterday it was 20. Now 2 years ago it was ~2/3.

Claw Hammer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117667195#Comment_117667195

The CAO offers are usually the starting signal for the Autumn rush.

Jmc25

Have seen the numbers available drop in two areas I keep an eye on on Daft recently. Nothing major - maybe 20 - 30 available in each area compared to 30 - 40 when I was actually looking to rent myself back in April, but maybe a sign of things to come.

Neither of these areas have any recently built apartments though - there still seems to be loads of those available in and around Dublin City Centre.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117670494#Comment_117670494

I'd say the city centre in Dublin including IFSC and Grand Canal Dock won't see much pick up until the end of the year and into next year. A lot of companies are only looking at starting off at half capacity in the autumn, on a rotating basis for the staff. But it doesn't seem anyone will be forced in from talking to colleagues and friends. It's also clear that travel is still very much a risky activity so a big influx of people in the coming months is also not going to happen. With building sites fully operational for a few months, that will hopefully give some respite for progress to be made with supply, even if just another 5 months of muted demand.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.thejournal.ie/are-higher-education-institutions-reopening-in-september-5513353-Aug2021/

Here we are, confirmation of the plans to have students back on campus next month. Just published today with 1,749 property listings and 1,256 shared listings on Daft.ie for Dublin. Let the feeding frenzy begin! The Daft.ie website is running very slowly for me so maybe it has already started.

mairtmairt

Just wondering guys of short term lets in Dublin where best to look etc. Looks like im in office 2 days a week so would need a place to stay for a night or 2 every week. Hotels is an option but obviously would be hoping for somethin cheaper if possible. Thanks in advance