Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

PommieBast

shenanagans wrote: »

I don't have evidence to offer.

Did a bit of digging. Threshold reports that sale of property is top reason (36% of notices) for lease terminations, and Focus Ireland reports vast majority of such notices are genuine.

https://www.threshold.ie/news/2018/05/25/tenancy-termination-an-issue-for-close-to-a-third/

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/vast-majority-of-landlords-selling-up-are-genuine-says-homelessness-chief-1.3850525

hometruths

shenanagans wrote: »

If we want a better rental market we need to protect decent tenants AND decent LLs.

Agreed. The key to protecting tenants is improving supply so that if they're not happy with their current tenancy it is relatively simply to move out and find a new one.

And the only way to encourage this supply is to stop demonising landlords, protect their rights re overholding, terminating leases etc etc and allow them to charge whatever rent they please.

The current regulations are a lose/lose scenario benefitting nobody.

thequarefellow

PommieBast wrote: »

Did a bit of digging. Threshold reports that sale of property is top reason (36% of notices) for lease terminations, and Focus Ireland reports vast majority of such notices are genuine.

https://www.threshold.ie/news/2018/05/25/tenancy-termination-an-issue-for-close-to-a-third/

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/vast-majority-of-landlords-selling-up-are-genuine-says-homelessness-chief-1.3850525

Well, long may it continue. I hope that many more landlords get out of the market and sell the houses. I previously lived in a part of the city that was majority rented houses. You could pick out the owner occupied houses easily - they were the ones that were kept clean and presentable. The landlords pulled up in expensive new cars every Sunday night to collect rent in cash while their properties looked disheveled and decrepit. Yes, I'm generalising, luckily my landlord was one of the good ones but he was the exception.

Edit. I'm not trying to bash all landlords. There are poor landlords and there are poor tenants and there always will be. But the system in Ireland is a mess and successive governments have made a hames of it.

shenanagans

thequarefellow wrote: »

Well, long may it continue. I hope that many more landlords get out of the market and sell the houses. I previously lived in a part of the city that was majority rented houses. You could pick out the owner occupied houses easily - they were the ones that were kept clean and presentable. The landlords pulled up in expensive new cars every Sunday night to collect rent in cash while their properties looked disheveled and decrepit. Yes, I'm generalising, luckily my landlord was one of the good ones but he was the exception.

Edit. I'm not trying to bash all landlords. There are poor landlords and there are poor tenants and there always will be. But the system in Ireland is a mess and successive governments have made a hames of it.

I doubt we'd be better off if we end up in a country with only corporate landlords. Vulture funds buying up property and blocks of apartments and asking extortionate rents....


Be careful what you wish for. IMO

Blut2

The argument that "landlords are leaving the market, this will negatively effect renters" just doesn't hold much water when the number of available properties to rent is at its highest point in the best part of a decade in the country. From a societal point of view it doesn't matter an inch how many individual landlords are in the market - it only matters how many properties are available to rent, at what price.

The data shows the number of available properties to rent was also steadily increasing year-on-year even pre-corona - so the anecdotal claims that "landlords are leaving the market" are either irrelevant in that context, or just simply incorrect.

This is why government policy, and legislation, is only going to get more and more restrictive for small scale landlords. There are far more voters who rent, or who have kids who rent, than there are voters who hold own rental properties in cities. And on top of that you have the lobbying influence of the large institutional investors - who are doing their best to drive the small scale landlords out of the market completely. Its a squeeze from both above and below on policy formation.

shenanagans

A lot of the properties recently put up for rent have a timescale of less than 6 months. They don't want long term tenants.

Govt needs to monitor short term rentals or do something to encourage LLs back into long-term rentals .....perhaps with better legislation.

PommieBast

Blut2 wrote: »

The argument that "landlords are leaving the market, this will negatively effect renters" just doesn't hold much water when the number of available properties to rent is at its highest point in the best part of a decade in the country. From a societal point of view it doesn't matter an inch how many individual landlords are in the market - it only matters how many properties are available to rent, at what price.

One problem is that properties affected by landlords selling up typically have rents well below average. This is why in Dublin rents went up something like 8% even though the city-wide RPZ disallows increases above 4%.

PommieBast

shenanagans wrote: »

A lot of the properties recently put up for rent have a timescale of less than 6 months. They don't want long term tenants.

A lot of these "new" lets are also asking for rents way above average. In fact from a quick glance I found this gem:



https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-2/dame-street-dublin-2-dublin-2024480/

shenanagans

Spoke to an auctioneer last week. Was told any investors on the look out for property would want one without a rent restriction. So if they buy they're not limited to below market rents.

shenanagans

PommieBast wrote: »

A lot of these "new" lets are also asking for rents way above average. In fact from a quick glance I found this gem:



https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-2/dame-street-dublin-2-dublin-2024480/

Limit of 3 months. So once Covid passes over......back on Airbnb it goes.

Hubertj

PommieBast wrote: »

A lot of these "new" lets are also asking for rents way above average. In fact from a quick glance I found this gem:



https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-2/dame-street-dublin-2-dublin-2024480/

Yea but you get a hair dryer included. I doubt there are many rentals in Dublin offering similar.

Muahahaha

Blut2 wrote: »

The argument that "landlords are leaving the market, this will negatively effect renters" just doesn't hold much water when the number of available properties to rent is at its highest point in the best part of a decade in the country. From a societal point of view it doesn't matter an inch how many individual landlords are in the market - it only matters how many properties are available to rent, at what price.

The data shows the number of available properties to rent was also steadily increasing year-on-year even pre-corona - so the anecdotal claims that "landlords are leaving the market" are either irrelevant in that context, or just simply incorrect.

This is why government policy, and legislation, is only going to get more and more restrictive for small scale landlords. There are far more voters who rent, or who have kids who rent, than there are voters who hold own rental properties in cities. And on top of that you have the lobbying influence of the large institutional investors - who are doing their best to drive the small scale landlords out of the market completely. Its a squeeze from both above and below on policy formation.

All good points though I think there is more than enough space in the market for both small landlords and institutional investors. The institutionals are likely only interested in Dublin and Cork properties to rent. I would think it is unlikely we'll be seeing them build blocks of apartments for rent in Athlone, Kerry or Sligo so the smaller scale landlord will still tend to dominate rental property in areas like these.

JimmyVik

A friend who owns an apartment in Swords just sent me a copy of a letter he received during the week from a REIT. Offering him €x to sell to them and could they send someone to speak to him about it.
He asked the neighboring owners who he knows and they all received the same letter. The REIT said tenants could stay if anyone had it rented out already.

An entire block in the same development was bought a few months ago by a REIT too. This complex is about 20 years old. Looks like the REITs are trying to take over the whole lot.

Ozark707

JimmyVik wrote: »

A friend who owns an apartment in Swords just sent me a copy of a letter he received during the week from a REIT. Offering him €x to sell to them and could they send someone to speak to him about it.

Does he feel that €x is fair market value?

Claw Hammer

Blut2 wrote: »

The argument that "landlords are leaving the market, this will negatively effect renters" just doesn't hold much water when the number of available properties to rent is at its highest point in the best part of a decade in the country. From a societal point of view it doesn't matter an inch how many individual landlords are in the market - it only matters how many properties are available to rent, at what price.

The data shows the number of available properties to rent was also steadily increasing year-on-year even pre-corona - so the anecdotal claims that "landlords are leaving the market" are either irrelevant in that context, or just simply incorrect.

This is why government policy, and legislation, is only going to get more and more restrictive for small scale landlords. There are far more voters who rent, or who have kids who rent, than there are voters who hold own rental properties in cities. And on top of that you have the lobbying influence of the large institutional investors - who are doing their best to drive the small scale landlords out of the market completely. Its a squeeze from both above and below on policy formation.

there are landlords leaving the market. Some big institutional landlords are increasing their footprint. There is also a high rate of household formation, so the number of households is increasing and the proportion of households renting is also rising. It has been noted by agents selling property that there more landlords selling than intending landlords buying.

Muahahaha

Claw Hammer wrote: »

there are landlords leaving the market. Some big institutional landlords are increasing their footprint. There is also a high rate of household formation, so the number of households is increasing and the proportion of households renting is also rising. It has been noted by agents selling property that there more landlords selling than intending landlords buying.

Is there any hard data behind this? I remember there was stats on how many single property landlords are in Ireland about 10 years back but cant remember the figure, I think it was 600,000 but am not sure on that.

Also you've got to remember as well that lots of cash buyers snapped up bargains in the crash when the government gave a CGT exemption. Some were never intending to hold for the long term, once they held for seven years they could then sell with no liability to CGT. I know of a few people in that scenario who made excellent capital returns with their investments doubling in the space of around 8 years, then they saw the peak coming and decided to get out.

Claw Hammer

There is plenty of hard data. The CSO publishes statistics on household formation rates. Agents report on their sales. Some landlords bought because of the CGT exemption but this was more than matched by those leaving the sector. The build to rent sector has been the main source of an increase in the number of units to let, well ahead of the BTL segment. A few accidental forced landlords have also come into the sector but most will get out of it when possible.
Rents were on a downward trend before COVID, which will undoubtedly cause rents to drop further and faster.
The effect will be to drive more smaller landlords out of the sector and increase the dominance of the the big institutional landlords.
The biggies will get the 4% cap lifted on the basis it is no longer needed and when the tide turns after that, it will be hold on to your horses as they gouge every last penny out of tenants.

Blut2

And where is the hard data that shows the landlords leaving the market in large numbers? Link us to it please if you're so familiar with it.

The only hard data this thread has seen so far are the statistics that show the number of available properties to rent going up year on year every year - and now being at a decade long high.

So without data that shows otherwise all we can assume is the claims landlords are leaving are purely anecdotal - because there are proven more and more rentals available in the market every year, which would suggest the exact opposite.

Dav010

This article reporting on RTB report on LLs leaving market, granted it is just over a year old.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1016879/

Claw Hammer

Blut2 wrote: »

So without data that shows otherwise all we can assume is the claims landlords are leaving are purely anecdotal - because there are proven more and more rentals available in the market every year, which would suggest the exact opposite.

There are more rentals but not more landlords. Some build to rent developments have several hundred units.

The_Conductor

Blut2 wrote: »

And where is the hard data that shows the landlords leaving the market in large numbers? Link us to it please if you're so familiar with it.

The only hard data this thread has seen so far are the statistics that show the number of available properties to rent going up year on year every year - and now being at a decade long high.

So without data that shows otherwise all we can assume is the claims landlords are leaving are purely anecdotal - because there are proven more and more rentals available in the market every year, which would suggest the exact opposite.

Its all in the RTB annual report (the 2018 report was published in July 2019 and is available to download from the RTB website here

Both absolute numbers of landlords, and absolute numbers of properties available to rent- have consistently fallen for the past 3 years- with a small blip in Q1/Q2 2020 which is more than accountable by non-nationals who were renting and who left the country due to the Covid-19 crisis.

Its not anecdotal at all- its carefully measured in the RTB annual report.

The 2019 report (up to 31st Dec 2019) is not due to be published until 17th July- and obviously the mayhem of 2020 won't feature in official reports until sometime in July 2021.

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its all in the RTB annual report (the 2018 report was published in July 2019 and is available to download from the RTB website here

Both absolute numbers of landlords, and absolute numbers of properties available to rent- have consistently fallen for the past 3 years- with a small blip in Q1/Q2 2020 which is more than accountable by non-nationals who were renting and who left the country due to the Covid-19 crisis.

Its not anecdotal at all- its carefully measured in the RTB annual report.

The 2019 report (up to 31st Dec 2019) is not due to be published until 17th July- and obviously the mayhem of 2020 won't feature in official reports until sometime in July 2021.

You should know better than to come in here with facts

awec

I am pretty sure it's been for longer than 3 years. I can't be bothered looking for the stats now, but I am pretty sure that the number of landlords has been falling every year since the recovery from the crash started, which I at least partly attributed to reluctant landlords offloading properties once their negative equity was sorted out.

Muahahaha

Whats the percentage though? The article posted above is saying 1,778 landlords left the market over 3 years. The RTB report is saying that there is a total of 173,197 landlords in the country. 1,778 of that number is just slightly over 1% of all landlords leaving the market and thats over the space of 3 years.

Slightly over 1% of landlords leaving the market over the course of three years doesnt sound like an exodus to me. That could easily be explained as reluctant LLs getting out when their negative equity finished.

Blut2

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its all in the RTB annual report (the 2018 report was published in July 2019 and is available to download from the RTB website here

Both absolute numbers of landlords, and absolute numbers of properties available to rent- have consistently fallen for the past 3 years- with a small blip in Q1/Q2 2020 which is more than accountable by non-nationals who were renting and who left the country due to the Covid-19 crisis.

Its not anecdotal at all- its carefully measured in the RTB annual report.

The 2019 report (up to 31st Dec 2019) is not due to be published until 17th July- and obviously the mayhem of 2020 won't feature in official reports until sometime in July 2021.

Thanks for the link.

As Muahahaha outlines, the figures from the RTB annual report show a decrease of approx 0.38% a year in the number of landlords over the last 3 years.

I'm not sure how anyone could claim that that data proves the claims that "landlords are leaving the market in large numbers" that some posters were making on the last page.

If anything it shows the exact opposite - the number of landlords is barely declining, and is close to standing still.

rightmove

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/small-time-landlords-are-being-forced-out-of-market-37126402.html

I would guess that 50% of the small LL's that left in the last few years feel they were forced to do so by rtb and rpz measures (caught under market). The result was higher rents (since only those would truly focused on it as business are left) and Air bnb.

shenanagans

Muahahaha wrote: »

Whats the percentage though? The article posted above is saying 1,778 landlords left the market over 3 years. The RTB report is saying that there is a total of 173,197 landlords in the country. 1,778 of that number is just slightly over 1% of all landlords leaving the market and thats over the space of 3 years.

Slightly over 1% of landlords leaving the market over the course of three years doesnt sound like an exodus to me. That could easily be explained as reluctant LLs getting out when their negative equity finished.

Those statistics don't reflect the huge number of landlords that left traditional rental market and went into short term letting (Airbnb) etc.

Muahahaha

rightmove wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/small-time-landlords-are-being-forced-out-of-market-37126402.html


From the article

Small-scale 'mom and pop' landlords are leaving the market in droves, pushed out by big international funds, says a new report on the landlord sector in Ireland.

Despite rents running higher than in the boom years, twice as many private landlords are now leaving the market as are entering it.

A transactions survey undertaken over the last year by 90 members of the Irish Professional Auctioneers and Valuers (IPAV) shows that 1,022 landlords sold private investment properties while at the same time just 452 bought properties.

Then from the RTB report, page 47

Percentage Change in Landlords with registered tenancies
2012 +16.1%
2013 -15.7%
2014 -10.5%
2015 +6.3%
2016 +2.9%
2017 -0.7%
2018 -0.5%

That gives a total of 2.1% of landlords leaving the market from 2012 to 2018.. Yet from the article above data released by an estate agent body claims they "are leaving the market in droves". Many articles have claimed the same but the RTBs stats do not bear this out.

Then you have the tenancies registered. In 2012 this was 254,434 but by 2018 it had climbed to 307,348. In the space of those 7 years the number of tenancies increased by a total of 17.4%.

Muahahaha

shenanagans wrote: »

Those statistics don't reflect the huge number of landlords that left traditional rental market and went into short term letting (Airbnb) etc.

Do landlords using Airbnb to let out their properties have to register that as a tenancy with the RTB I dont think they do. If they leave the tenant market for STL then naturally that is reflected in them no longer registering a tenancy with the RTB which then shows up in the RTB stats.

shenanagans

Muahahaha wrote: »

Do landlords using Airbnb to let out their properties have to register that as a tenancy with the RTB I dont think they do. If they leave the tenant market for STL then naturally that is reflected in them no longer registering a tenancy with the RTB which then shows up in the RTB stats.

Plenty of LLs have properties let to agencies/people who use them for Airbnb.