Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

Graham

yup. R2R or rent-to-rent. There's some fella selling training online for it, how to build your own AirBnB empire type of thing.

What could possibly go wrong.

The_Conductor

Muahahaha wrote: »

rightmove wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/small-time-landlords-are-being-forced-out-of-market-37126402.html


From the article



Then from the RTB report, page 47

Percentage Change in Landlords with registered tenancies
2012 +16.1%
2013 -15.7%
2014 -10.5%
2015 +6.3%
2016 +2.9%
2017 -0.7%
2018 -0.5%

That gives a total of 2.1% of landlords leaving the market from 2012 to 2018.. Yet from the article above data released by an estate agent body claims they "are leaving the market in droves". Many articles have claimed the same but the RTBs stats do not bear this out.

Then you have the tenancies registered. In 2012 this was 254,434 but by 2018 it had climbed to 307,348. In the space of those 7 years the number of tenancies increased by a total of 17.4%.

The numbers are masked by far greater compliance levels among landlords. Back in 2010-2012- there were significant issues with landlords not registering tenancies (for numerous reasons, including trying to avoid tax- but also out of an expectation that they wouldn't get caught). This lack of compliance has progressively tightened up- particularly among smaller landlords- who traditionally played the system like a fine fiddle..........

The RTB themselves have stated as much- and it has been mentioned by the Minister (congratulating the RTB for tightening up and getting the sector into a better regulatory position).

So- 'standing still' can in fact be masking a multitude of ills.

beauf

Muahahaha wrote: »

.... The RTB report is saying that there is a total of 173,197 landlords in the country....

I'd like to see the figure for total numbers of LL from 2006 to 2020.

I suspect its down massively from the peak.

Population massively increased.

Heading into a recession, likely to drop LL numbers massively, like it did last time.

I posted figures. Because I can't stand over them, I removed them. The PRTB figures seems to have changed since I lasted posted about them.

The_Conductor

beauf wrote: »

Very hard to find these figures. Why?

Because politically it suits to paint landlords as the bogeymen of the sector- whereas in actual fact its been government policy to drive them from the sector in favour of large institutional investors.

beauf

The_Conductor wrote: »

Because politically it suits to paint landlords as the bogeymen of the sector- whereas in actual fact its been government policy to drive them from the sector in favour of large institutional investors.

Exactly. I should have made that a rhetorical question. Sry.

Muahahaha

The_Conductor wrote: »

The numbers are masked by far greater compliance levels among landlords. Back in 2010-2012- there were significant issues with landlords not registering tenancies (for numerous reasons, including trying to avoid tax- but also out of an expectation that they wouldn't get caught). This lack of compliance has progressively tightened up- particularly among smaller landlords- who traditionally played the system like a fine fiddle..........

The RTB themselves have stated as much- and it has been mentioned by the Minister (congratulating the RTB for tightening up and getting the sector into a better regulatory position).

So- 'standing still' can in fact be masking a multitude of ills.

Yeah but that is 2010-2012 whereas the stats in the RTB report cover 2012-2018.

Numberous newspaper articles have said that landlords are leaving the market in droves, the IAPV survey said as much and it hass been claimed on this forum hundreds if not thousands of times over the last few years. Yet the official RTB stats are not bearing that out- as said from 2012 to 2018 there was a 2.1% reduction in landlords but an increase in tenancies of 17.4%.

Furthermore the RTB report says that single property landlords control some 70% of the market and this figure has remained largely consistent-

Landlord Profile
The profile of landlords in the sector has remained
consistent with the majority (70.5%) managing just one
tenancy. There has been much discussion on large scale
institutional landlords and their role in the rental sector.
RTB data shows that tenancy registrations by large scale
landlords (including individuals and companies) in the
rental market is still limited at approximately 4%.

To me that says two things-
1) the effect of the institutional investors is largely overstated as they control only 4% of all tenancies nationwide
2) The idea that landlords are leaving the market "in droves" is fake news, the stats simply do not bear this out. Anything else apart from this raw data is speculation and supposition by vested interests such as the estate agents.

Muahahaha

shenanagans wrote: »

Plenty of LLs have properties let to agencies/people who use them for Airbnb.

But why would they be registering those with the RTB when they are a STL and therefore dont fall under RTB jurisdiction? Can you show me where the RTB states landlords have to register with them when their property is used for STLs?

shenanagans

Muahahaha wrote: »

rightmove wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/small-time-landlords-are-being-forced-out-of-market-37126402.html


From the article




Then from the RTB report, page 47

Percentage Change in Landlords with registered tenancies
2012 +16.1%
2013 -15.7%
2014 -10.5%
2015 +6.3%
2016 +2.9%
2017 -0.7%
2018 -0.5%

That gives a total of 2.1% of landlords leaving the market from 2012 to 2018.. Yet from the article above data released by an estate agent body claims they "are leaving the market in droves". Many articles have claimed the same but the RTBs stats do not bear this out.

Then you have the tenancies registered. In 2012 this was 254,434 but by 2018 it had climbed to 307,348. In the space of those 7 years the number of tenancies increased by a total of 17.4%.

Why the major housing crisis in recent years so??

We have to ask how accurate these statistics are.

Muahahaha

shenanagans wrote: »

Why the major housing crisis in recent years so??

We have to ask how accurate these statistics are.

Because demand has outstripped supply and there are more people renting now at any point in the history of the state and by a long mile too.

What makes you think they are inaccurate. Its simply the RTB saying how many landlords and tenancies are in the market from 2012 to 2018. Are you saying the RTB just make these statistics up or something ?

shenanagans

Muahahaha wrote: »

Because demand has outstripped supply and there are more people renting now at any point in the history of the state and by a long mile too.

What makes you think they are inaccurate. Its simply the RTB saying how many landlords and tenancies are in the market from 2012 to 2018. Are you saying the RTB just make these statistics up or something ?

I'd pay no attention to the increase in tenancies. I'd say it better compliance by LLs registering tenancies they may not have 10 years ago. More and more are obeying regulation.

Lots of tenancies registered are also not to long term tenants..... It's to people running Airbnb type businesses. IMO.

2019 data will be interesting.

DubCount

Just some comments on RTB figures.

1) They are only based on RTB registrations so don't take any account of Airbnb etc.
2) A couple of years ago, they changed their registration statistics to include housing agencies in their figures. This means they compare apples and oranges in their stats on number of landlords/registrations. In 2012, they only counted private landlords. In 2019, they count private landlords and housing agencies.
3) As the years have gone by, the RTB have cracked down on Landlords not registered with them. The figures in 2012 exclude a lot more unregistered landlords than is the case in 2019.

Even allowing for the understatement of the fall in Landlords reported by the RTB (due to 2 and 3 above), its incredible there is any fall during a period when rents have risen significantly and demand exceeded supply. The answer - too much concentration on tenant rights with no counterbalance has driven away lots of investors and potential investors.

beauf

Thanks for that. I was looking back old comments and couldn't understand why the figures seem higher now than in the past. Now we know why.


Seems like we've gone from 250k to 180k and while I can't find it now I think we lost a massive amount of LL after the last crash and we never regained those numbers.

That you can't get clear data says a lot.

Doesn't really matter. All that's important is the availablity and price. That is telling you all you need to know.

JimmyVik

I wouldnt believe a word from the RTB about their stats.
They have shown a willingness over the years to massage the figures to suit a narrative and as such they cannot be trusted as a source of information.

shenanagans

DubCount wrote: »

Just some comments on RTB figures.

1) They are only based on RTB registrations so don't take any account of Airbnb etc.
2) A couple of years ago, they changed their registration statistics to include housing agencies in their figures. This means they compare apples and oranges in their stats on number of landlords/registrations. In 2012, they only counted private landlords. In 2019, they count private landlords and housing agencies.
3) As the years have gone by, the RTB have cracked down on Landlords not registered with them. The figures in 2012 exclude a lot more unregistered landlords than is the case in 2019.

Even allowing for the understatement of the fall in Landlords reported by the RTB (due to 2 and 3 above), its incredible there is any fall during a period when rents have risen significantly and demand exceeded supply. The answer - too much concentration on tenant rights with no counterbalance has driven away lots of investors and potential investors.

Rubbish. #1 incorrect. Plenty of LLs let a property to companies/individuals and register with RTB......that company/individual then using it as an Airbnb.

So it appears as a tenancy with RTB but no long-term tenancy really exists.

JimmyVik

shenanagans wrote: »

Rubbish. #1 incorrect. Plenty of LLs let a property to companies/individuals and register with RTB......that company/individual then using it as an Airbnb.

So it appears as a tenancy with RTB but no long-term tenancy really exists.

I think thats highly unlikely tbh.

Maybe it might happen but it would be extremely rare.
Where did you find that out? I love to read it.

shenanagans

JimmyVik wrote: »

I think thats highly unlikely tbh.

Maybe it might happen but it would be extremely rare.
Where did you find that out? I love to read it.

There's loads of people gone into Airbnb as a full time job/business in recent years. They rent out several properties and then put them on Airbnb. Full time job managing them all.

Landlords may not even be aware their property is on Airbnb. Or they know and don't care as long as rent is coming in.

Claw Hammer

shenanagans wrote: »

There's loads of people gone into Airbnb as a full time job/business in recent years. They rent out several properties and then put them on Airbnb. Full time job managing them all.

Landlords may not even be aware their property is on Airbnb. Or they know and don't care as long as rent is coming in.

There is no way the landlord wouldn't know. In all those cases there is a commercial lease which wouldn't come under the RTB.

Ozark707

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There is no way the landlord wouldn't know. In all those cases there is a commercial lease which wouldn't come under the RTB.

Was the poster not suggesting that someone rents an apt from a LL. Then this tenant just flips it up on AirBnB and manages it themselves. The LL still gets the monthly rent but unless the mmgt company get onto he/she then they will possibly be in the dark?

shenanagans

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There is no way the landlord wouldn't know. In all those cases there is a commercial lease which wouldn't come under the RTB.

Vast majority would be well aware. But the councils couldn't proof that.

shenanagans

Ozark707 wrote: »

Was the poster not suggesting that someone rents an apt from a LL. Then this tenant just flips it up on AirBnB and manages it themselves. The LL still gets the monthly rent but unless the mmgt company get onto he/she then they will possibly be in the dark?

I'd say some older landlords could be unaware. People that don't use Airbnb. Wouldn't browse through Airbnb lettings in area etc.

Irrespective. The council couldn't prove whether the LL knew or not.

Dav010

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There is no way the landlord wouldn't know. In all those cases there is a commercial lease which wouldn't come under the RTB.

That is an interesting point, I wouldn’t have thought a commercial lease could be applied to a residential property. I also doubt if you can choose for a tenancy lease in a residential property not to be covered by the RTB.

Personally, I would associate the phrase “commercial let” in a residential property with letting the property to the likes of Google who then let employees use it. But it would probably still be a tenancy covered by the RTB with Google as the tenant.

JimmyVik

shenanagans wrote: »

There's loads of people gone into Airbnb as a full time job/business in recent years. They rent out several properties and then put them on Airbnb. Full time job managing them all.

Landlords may not even be aware their property is on Airbnb. Or they know and don't care as long as rent is coming in.

How many though?

JimmyVik

Any new stats form the people who were keeping tabs on increases in properties for rent?

Ozark707

JimmyVik wrote: »

Any new stats form the people who were keeping tabs on increases in properties for rent?

The best source I have come across is this link which is updated on the 1st of every month

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

This has STL's removed I believe so it is the truest barometer I find to gauge available supply for non STL's. I don't think Daft have a filter option to remove 'Weekly' lets which means it is harder to track an accurate number on non STL's on the market.

What this doesn't account for however is the multiple listings under one ad, e.g. Capital docks, so in effect supply is likely to be far higher than what you get in this link.

Claw Hammer

Dav010 wrote: »

I also doubt if you can choose for a tenancy lease in a residential property not to be covered by the RTB.

You have got to be joking. Almost every apartment owner has a lease with their management company which is not covered by the RTB.

JimmyVik

Claw Hammer wrote: »

You have got to be joking. Almost every apartment owner has a lease with their management company which is not covered by the RTB.

I dont believe a lease bewteen the council and an owner requires RTB either.
Probably loads more situations too.

Dav010

Claw Hammer wrote: »

You have got to be joking. Almost every apartment owner has a lease with their management company which is not covered by the RTB.

Cop on. Were you posting about a lease between a property owner and a MC when you said that most leases are commercial type between property owner and a person renting a property to short let on Airbnb?

If you rent a residential property as a tenant, you don’t get to chose if the RTB covers the lease if it is a tenancy.

Claw Hammer

Dav010 wrote: »

Cop on. Were you posting about a lease between a property owner and a MC when you said that most leases are commercial type between property owner and a person renting a property to short let on Airbnb?

If you rent a residential property as a tenant, you don’t get to chose if the RTB covers the lease if it is a tenancy.

The lease between the owner and a person going to carry on air bnb will be commercial since the tenant won't be residing in the property and the clauses normally found in a residential lease won't be suitable and because of the insurance implications.
An owner of an apartment rents a dwelling from the management company under a lease. at one time these leases were subject to the RTB.

double jobbing

runswithascript wrote: »

Shame on you. You are a major part of the property problem in our society.

I hope we will soon have a government here that will restrict or even better yet ban Airbnb completely, just like these places:

I don't even understand how AirBNB ever even got off the ground.

If, in the pre mobile app era, I hung around Dublin Airport with a sign inviting people to pay to stay in a 5 bed house I had access to it wouldn't be long before the authorities were demanding fire inspections, planning permission, liability insurance etc for me to operate.

I can't understand how AirBNB was ever any different.


Can't even imagine the appeal from a tourism point of view. Who wants to go on holidays to stay in a house? Imagine booking an AirBnB for Paddys weekend and the owner fails to show up for whatever reason. Stuck sleeping in Busaras or the airport with your luggage for the night because you tried saving a few quid.

Dav010

double jobbing wrote: »

I don't even understand how AirBNB ever even got off the ground.

If, in the pre mobile app era, I hung around Dublin Airport with a sign inviting people to pay to stay in a 5 bed house I had access to it wouldn't be long before the authorities were demanding fire inspections, planning permission, liability insurance etc for me to operate.

I can't understand how AirBNB was ever any different.


Can't even imagine the appeal from a tourism point of view. Who wants to go on holidays to stay in a house? Imagine booking an AirBnB for Paddys weekend and the owner fails to show up for whatever reason. Stuck sleeping in Busaras or the airport with your luggage for the night because you tried saving a few quid.

Try it. Then write about it. Both Hosts and Guests are reviewed so chances of you being stuck in Busaras are slim indeed.