Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

Ozark707

global23214124 wrote: »

It will be short lived when people start travelling back for work and stuff.

I think you might have a point here, once companies start telling people they are needed back in offices supply will probably be eaten up. Still as you can attest to there is gar better value out there than for many years.

TheSheriff

We had people over viewing our place the other night as we are moving out soon.

They are currently WFH but due back to the office in July.

They were simply moving to lock in a price reduction in rent. I do think in two or three weeks demand will go up.

sk8board

TheSheriff wrote: »

We had people over viewing our place the other night as we are moving out soon.

They are currently WFH but due back to the office in July.

They were simply moving to lock in a price reduction in rent. I do think in two or three weeks demand will go up.

As a full-time LL I tend to agree. The return to some form of new normal has been happening quicker than expected.
The only real change to supply has been to 1-2bed places in the city center (the much-storied AirBnBs). I’m seeing no material change in supply outside the city for single family semi-d’s

Ozark707

sk8board wrote: »

As a full-time LL I tend to agree. The return to some form of new normal has been happening quicker than expected.
The only real change to supply has been to 1-2bed places in the city center (the much-storied AirBnBs). I’m seeing no material change in supply outside the city for single family semi-d’s

That makes sense, I have heard of a number of single people handing back places and relocating out of Dublin but if you have a family that is not a decision that is as easy to make with schools etc.

Smouse156

Mr.S wrote: »

And those 1-2 one beds in the CC are going to be lapped up by the plethora of tech workers in the city centre on silly salaries, so i'm guessing the prices will level out either way, fairly quickly.

Guys I think that those that believe that prices will stay the same as pre-covid have little understanding of the rental market. The most effected areas in retail & hospitality are predominantly renters, not high paid tech workers (tech workers on high salaries tend to buy homes). Many of those tech workers also will be allowed to WFH for the remainder of 2020. Those in retail & hospitality are facing permanent job losses and while I do believe that demand will return, it will be 2022 before the same level of demand pre-covid returns.
Those landlords not lowering rents are looking at 2 year vacancies at least!

TheSheriff

Smouse156 wrote: »

Guys I think that those that believe that prices will stay the same as pre-covid have little understanding of the rental market. The most effected areas in retail & hospitality are predominantly renters, not high paid tech workers (tech workers on high salaries tend to buy homes). Many of those tech workers also will be allowed to WFH for the remainder of 2020. Those in retail & hospitality are facing permanent job losses and while I do believe that demand will return, it will be 2022 before the same level of demand pre-covid returns.
Those landlords not lowering rents are looking at 2 year vacancies at least!

Have you ever gone to an open viewing in Dublin?

I have been at ones up to last year where you could get over 100 people at it.

Yes, demand will be diminished but it would need to absolutely fall off a cliff for a landlord to have a vacancy empty for 2+ years. Seems very unlikely.

Ozark707

Smouse156 wrote: »

Many of those tech workers also will be allowed to WFH for the remainder of 2020
Those landlords not lowering rents are looking at 2 year vacancies at least!

You have to factor in the 6 month rule, if you high tailed it back to say Spain /Poland...back in mid March you have to be back here by mid September or there will have to be tax considerations to factor in. I know of one major MNC who are advising their staff of this. So you might not be back in the office but you will be expected back in ROI..

Smouse156

TheSheriff wrote: »

Have you ever gone to an open viewing in Dublin?

I have been at ones up to last year where you could get over 100 people at it.

Yes, demand will be diminished but it would need to absolutely fall off a cliff for a landlord to have a vacancy empty for 2+ years. Seems very unlikely.

Yes I have gone to open viewings in Dublin and I agree there was a huge supply problem until the end of last year! But that was then and this is now! I said landlords who wouldn’t lower rent would face 2 year vacancies. Besides large swathes of apartments in the 2k+ range (Capital Dock, One Ballsbridge, Quayside Quarter Etc) have huge vacancy rates. If they ever want to fill up they’ll have to lower their rents, which will put downward pressure on the remainder. The loss of so many jobs permanently is why the market will go down

Smouse156

Ozark707 wrote: »

You have to factor in the 6 month rule, if you high tailed it back to say Spain /Poland...back in mid March you have to be back here by mid September or there will have to be tax considerations to factor in. I know of one major MNC who are advising their staff of this. So you might not be back in the office but you will be expected back in ROI..

I don’t disagree with the above, however, many tech companies where I have friends working have been told they can stay home for the rest of the year. Many have moved down the country back to family homes to save the rent, especially given the other benefits of city living (nightlife, restaurants etc) have shutdown

Ozark707

Smouse156 wrote: »

I don’t disagree with the above, however, many tech companies where I have friends working have been told they can stay home for the rest of the year. Many have moved down the country back to family homes to save the rent, especially given the other benefits of city living (nightlife, restaurants etc) have shutdown

Yes that is my experience as well. I have noticed that supply on daft is still increasing by the week, will be interesting to see if that persists going into July/August.

Ozark707

Smouse156 wrote: »

Yes I have gone to open viewings in Dublin and I agree there was a huge supply problem until the end of last year! But that was then and this is now! I said landlords who wouldn’t lower rent would face 2 year vacancies. Besides large swathes of apartments in the 2k+ range (Capital Dock, One Ballsbridge, Quayside Quarter Etc) have huge vacancy rates. If they ever want to fill up they’ll have to lower their rents, which will put downward pressure on the remainder. The loss of so many jobs permanently is why the market will go down

Totally agree on the 2.5k+ apts in the likes of D2/4. The link below has countless examples of places which have not been let after an initial drop.

https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops

There is also a huge amount of supply to hit the market over the next 6/12 months (assuming the sites get back fully operational I guess) in the expensive range. The vacancy rates in some of these blocks is already off the charts so what will adding loads more do unless they seriously reduce the price.

frankzappa

Ozark707 wrote: »

Yes that is my experience as well. I have noticed that supply on daft is still increasing by the week, will be interesting to see if that persists going into July/August.

I work in a MNC and i can just confirm that tons of colleagues have left the country to their home country and literally subletted or gave notice to their LL.
We also have an internal posting for accomodations and i saw a HUGE number of people posting to find replacement as they are leaving or have left.
While i believe big tech will return to the office, i also believe it'll put way less emphasis on being at the office.
Big Retail/hospitality will suffer lots, just have a walk in the CC and see for yourself. Many shops/restaurants still closed, the ones that have opened are operating at 50% capacity at best. It's gonna be a big hit.

frw5

We were all given instructions that the company is going to be monitoring IP addresses from which we connect. It has to be Ireland for all employees.

Renjit

frankzappa wrote: »

I work in a MNC and i can just confirm that tons of colleagues have left the country to their home country and literally subletted or gave notice to their LL.
We also have an internal posting for accomodations and i saw a HUGE number of people posting to find replacement as they are leaving or have left.
While i believe big tech will return to the office, i also believe it'll put way less emphasis on being at the office.
Big Retail/hospitality will suffer lots, just have a walk in the CC and see for yourself. Many shops/restaurants still closed, the ones that have opened are operating at 50% capacity at best. It's gonna be a big hit.

The big MNCs now prefer the employees work from home unless it is absolutely necessary. It is easier for the MNCs too in the long run.

awec

frw5 wrote: »

We were all given instructions that the company is going to be monitoring IP addresses from which we connect. It has to be Ireland for all employees.

Yes there are extra complications for remote working from outside the state, particularly around tax, and it is not uncommon for companies to just not allow it.

Dav010

awec wrote: »

Yes there are extra complications for remote working from outside the state, particularly around tax, and it is not uncommon for companies to just not allow it.

On Newstalk business show Saturday morning, the head of one of the recruitment companies being interviewed said she expected a big increase in numbers of new hires living and working remotely outside Ireland. When asked if there were any problems with this in terms of employment law and taxation, she said not really, that this will become common in the tech industry.

Hubertj

Dav010 wrote: »

On Newstalk business show Saturday morning, the head of one of the recruitment companies being interviewed said she expected a big increase in numbers of new hires living and working remotely outside Ireland. When asked if there were any problems with this in terms of employment law and taxation, she said not really, that this will become common in the tech industry.

I don’t know about personal taxation but there are definite corporation tax considerations, tax reliefs relating to IP and in the case of US MNCs - US tax considerations.

The_Conductor

awec wrote: »

Yes there are extra complications for remote working from outside the state, particularly around tax, and it is not uncommon for companies to just not allow it.

Just use a VPN- its what anyone who is semi-IT literate does as a matter of course.

bigpink

TheSheriff wrote: »

We had people over viewing our place the other night as we are moving out soon.

They are currently WFH but due back to the office in July.

They were simply moving to lock in a price reduction in rent. I do think in two or three weeks demand will go up.

You moving out or house share?

brisan

When the 3 month rule on not paying rent elapses and a lot of hospitality workers find themselves out of work ,will they return home leaving landlords with a 3 month loss of rent and an empty apartment ??

bucketybuck

The_Conductor wrote: »

Just use a VPN- its what anyone who is semi-IT literate does as a matter of course.

Where do their wages get paid and what is their listed address?

frw5

VPN has occurred me, especially if wanting to extend a vacation, stay somewhere for couple of weeks and just work the half of it but isnt that detectable? Do you get a fixed ip address with vpn or it changes pretty much every time you connect via one.

diggerdigger

frw5 wrote: »

VPN has occurred me, especially if wanting to extend a vacation, stay somewhere for couple of weeks and just work the half of it but isnt that detectable? Do you get a fixed ip address with vpn or it changes pretty much every time you connect via one.

Whatever about working down the country, despite what some posters seem to be saying, it's a bad idea to lie about your country location in WFH scenario to your employer if you are supposed to be "at work". So they call your mobile - get an international dial tone? They call you in for a socially distanced meeting and you can't attend because 14 days self isolation.

There are cross border considerations for an employer, tax, health and safety, data privacy if your work involves any data transfers.

I personally would not be looking to put myself in a position of losing my job at the moment over trivial BS. If you want to work in another country, clear it with your employer. If this continues after official lockdown, I suspect many employers will reword contracts or define policies and it will be clear what's appropriate or not for each employer.

awec

The_Conductor wrote: »

Just use a VPN- its what anyone who is semi-IT literate does as a matter of course.

Er, no, that's not what happens. It could be a very serious issue for any employee caught doing this.

frw5

frw5 wrote: »

VPN has occurred me, especially if wanting to extend a vacation, stay somewhere for couple of weeks and just work the half of it but isnt that detectable? Do you get a fixed ip address with vpn or it changes pretty much every time you connect via one.

diggerdigger wrote: »

Whatever about working down the country, despite what some posters seem to be saying, it's a bad idea to lie about your country location in WFH scenario to your employer if you are supposed to be "at work". So they call your mobile - get an international dial tone? They call you in for a socially distanced meeting and you can't attend because 14 days self isolation.

There are cross border considerations for an employer, tax, health and safety, data privacy if your work involves any data transfers.

I personally would not be looking to put myself in a position of losing my job at the moment over trivial BS. If you want to work in another country, clear it with your employer. If this continues after official lockdown, I suspect many employers will reword contracts or define policies and it will be clear what's appropriate or not for each employer.

I agree, definitely not plausible, again, just as a means to get a bit of extra days for a vacation then maybe.

silver2020

awec wrote: »

Yes there are extra complications for remote working from outside the state, particularly around tax, and it is not uncommon for companies to just not allow it.

If its personal tax, that's not an issue at all.

It's been done in the film industry for years and one film could have people domiciled for tax in a dozen countries.


Shouldn't be any issue with corporation tax as the work is being done for the Irish entity.

awec

silver2020 wrote: »

If its personal tax, that's not an issue at all.

It's been done in the film industry for years and one film could have people domiciled for tax in a dozen countries.


Shouldn't be any issue with corporation tax as the work is being done for the Irish entity.

It is.

You cannot just go live in Portugal or whatever and continue your current arrangements. Generally, when people do it, it involves either giving up employee status and becoming a contractor, or transferring your employment to a local legal entity, and having your salary and perks adjusted accordingly.

There are also other tax implications for the company itself, things like R+D tax relief etc, as well as data protection problems in some cases.

MNCs enjoy low corpo tax rates in exchange for employment in Ireland.

A lot of Irish working professionals based in Dublin who are originally from the country wish to relocate back outside Dublin.

These are people who are on what would be considered decent salaries but still cannot afford to buy a home in Dublin.

I am originally from Kerry but living in Dublin over a decade. Since the begging of the pandemic three of my friends have moved from Dublin back to Kerry and are working remotely. All three have been told they will not be back in the office until 2021. They all plan to push for work from home on a permanent basis.

I believe this to be common across many industries. This should have a huge knock on impact in rural Ireland as it will stimulate local economies as services will develop to cater for these people with high levels of disposable income to now spend in the provinces.

This should result in more properties becoming available in Dublin.

TheSheriff

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

A lot of Irish working professionals based in Dublin who are originally from the country wish to relocate back outside Dublin.

These are people who are on what would be considered decent salaries but still cannot afford to buy a home in Dublin.

I am originally from Kerry but living in Dublin over a decade. Since the begging of the pandemic three of my friends have moved from Dublin back to Kerry and are working remotely. All three have been told they will not be back in the office until 2021. They all plan to push for work from home on a permanent basis.

I believe this to be common across many industries. This should have a huge knock on impact in rural Ireland as it will stimulate local economies as services will develop to cater for these people with high levels of disposable income to now spend in the provinces.

This should result in more properties becoming available in Dublin.

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

We are also from down the country but want to stay in Dublin; all af our friends think the same. After being here several years this is where we consider home, and it has much more to offer. We thought seriously at the start of the year (and I was more for leaving than the GF) about moving home but the cons do no outweigh the pros.

On another note, I would have serious concerns about how a permant remote set up from far outside Dublin will impact your job prospects/salary etc long term. I know others don't share this but I've seen it in my own workplace.

We have a number of employees who are WFH full time and they are constantly stepped over for promotions for years for the simple matter that they don't have a presence in the office. They have zero input into decision making processes and put simply, are there to do the grunt work: it wouldn't be for me. This suits some obviously, no denying that and I would imagine these will be the people who would move, if contracts allowed.

GF works in a tech MNC and I know her and her team are eager to get back to the office again for the interaction side of it.

Interesting times ahead to see how it all pans out (although we probably won't be able to say anything conclusive for years).

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

We are also from down the country but want to stay in Dublin; all af our friends think the same. After being here several years this is where we consider now home, and it has much more to offer. We thought seriously at the start of the year (and I was more for leaving than the GF) about moving home but the cons do no outweigh the pros.

On another note, I would have serious concerns about how a permant remote set up from far outside Dublin will impact your job prospects/salary etc long term. I know others don't share this but I've seen it in my own workplace.

We have a number of employees who are WFH full time and they are constantly stepped over for promotions for years for the simple matter that they don't have a presence in the office. They have zero input into decision making processes and put simply, are there to do the grunt work: it wouldn't be for me. This suits some obviously, no denying that and I would imagine these will be the people who would move, if contracts allowed.

GF works in a tech MNC and I know her and her team are eager to get back to the office again for the interaction side of it.

Interesting times ahead to see how it all pans out (although we probably won't be able to say anything conclusive for years).

Wise words from this poster.

I would be in a similar boat to yourself. I am in a relationship with a south side city girl and she would not ever in a million years want to live in the provinces. Even though I am a culchie at heart and love my visits home I couldn't give up slick city living.

I would say the thing about promotion/career development may change though.

At the moment work from home is very much an outlier. I think some senior management may even pursue it down the country and this would lead to a significant organisational cultural shift.

WFH strategies are also bound to improve as we move forwards.