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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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    #1232
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    AlmightyCushion wrote: »
    It's in the stability and growth pact. Can't remember when it came in but it was well after the 80s.

    But didn't they largely stop building social housing before that.


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    #1233
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 3,013 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Hubertj wrote: »
    why is this so different then?

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/rents-continue-to-rise-despite-covid-19-impact-1014579.html

    Because that includes all dwelling types. Rents for 3bed houses in Dublin haven't dropped, for 2bedroom houses have actually increased since Feb 1st etc.

    The 20% drop in rental prices refers to apartments, as was stated/discussed pretty clearly in the linked post.


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    #1234
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Blut2 wrote: »
    Because that includes all dwelling types. Rents for 3bed houses in Dublin haven't dropped, for 2bedroom houses have actually increased since Feb 1st etc.

    The 20% drop in rental prices refers to apartments, as was stated/discussed pretty clearly in the linked post.

    As a matter of interest, why restrict your analysis to 2 beds? Surely rental properties of all types should be considered.


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    #1235
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    ExMachina1000 wrote: »
    From the data available its clear that there wont be any significant drop in Dublin rental prices.
    Increases at a continuous rate are more likely

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114342122&postcount=1155


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    #1236
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    beauf wrote: »
    So where are we with rents. Have they fallen massively as people were hoping...? I haven't been following this...


    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114342122&postcount=1155


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    #1237
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 3,013 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Dav010 wrote: »
    As a matter of interest, why restrict your analysis to 2 beds? Surely rental properties of all types should be considered.

    The posted chart shows the data for 1bed apartments, 2bed apartments, 3bed apartments, houses etc. Its not just 2 bed apartments.


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    #1238
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    brisan wrote: »
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114342122&postcount=1155

    So on the same Boards page we have an article today which includes an explanation from Ronan Lyons as to why rents haven’t dropped in any significant way, and a graph which shows there have been some drops.


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    #1239
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Blut2 wrote: »
    Because that includes all dwelling types. Rents for 3bed houses in Dublin haven't dropped, for 2bedroom houses have actually increased since Feb 1st etc.

    The 20% drop in rental prices refers to apartments, as was stated/discussed pretty clearly in the linked post.

    ok so the decreases in apartment rents is offset by houses not falling. thank you.


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    #1240
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 3,013 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Dav010 wrote: »
    So on the same Boards page we have an article today which includes an explanation from Ronan Lyons as to why rents haven’t dropped in any significant way, and a graph which shows there have been some drops.

    And you had an explanation of that posted on this exact same page, too:
    Because that[the discussion in the article] includes all dwelling types. Rents for 3bed houses in Dublin haven't dropped, for 2bedroom houses have actually increased since Feb 1st etc.

    The posted graph very clearly shows that rents haven't dropped, and have actually increased, for houses.


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    #1241
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Hubertj wrote: »
    why is this so different then?

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/rents-continue-to-rise-despite-covid-19-impact-1014579.html

    Where is the report? I can't find it published anywhere. Do Daft own Breaking News? I'd like to see what it actually says as articles usually have a narrative with the data they select.


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    #1242
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Where is the report? I can't find it published anywhere. Do Daft own Breaking News? I'd like to see what it actually says as articles usually have a narrative with the data they select.

    not looked for it.. someone else posted this link earlier and i was curious to understand why it differed from those graphs.... i've been enlightened....


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    #1243
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Where is the report? I can't find it published anywhere. Do Daft own Breaking News? I'd like to see what it actually says as articles usually have a narrative with the data they select.

    Ronan Lyons produces Dafts monthly reports so he has a bias


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    #1244
    DubCount
    Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭DubCount


    brisan wrote: »
    Ronan Lyons produces Dafts monthly reports so he has a bias

    Everyone has a bias - though its harder to see your own than the bias of someone else.

    The Daft report is about what is advertised on Daft, so its not the whole story of the rental market.

    He did make 2 good points as to why rents are not dropping like a stone when supply has increased and demand has fallen. The first is that there was an overhang of excess demand before Covid which is being absorbed before we see any price drops. The second was the more interesting one. He reckons (and I agree) that the RPZs are stopping LLs reducing asking prices as it could take years or decades to recover from reducing a rental price as its sets a new baseline against which future rents will be pegged. He said that getting the first month rent free etc. may be how reductions are happening in the market as RPZ gives a big incentive to a LL not to reduce the headline rental price.


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    #1245
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    https://www.daft.ie/report?fr=touch

    The papers obviously got it first and of course have gotten their narrative in that everything is hunky dory.

    The glaring red warning sign when I open the report comes from one of the first pictures; "Average monthly rent in Dublin €2030". That is truly shocking and a sorry state of affairs. It makes me genuinely angry to see that as it is a threat to social and political stability. People do not have financial security paying those rents and will push our politics more into populism. It is just not sustainable, as simple as that.

    It's a bit pointless beyond that for rental information as it just talks of averages rather than splitting it between different properties and areas. The Q2 rental report should be published imminently so I look forward to seeing the more granular data.

    A positive from this report is that rental supply is up 92% YoY in Dublin and demand is going to be muted for another few months as the pandemic curtails travel so inward migration will be on hold, meaning this supply will continue to increase. It's definitely a tenant's market and negotiation of advertised rents must be undertaken by prospective tenants.


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    #1246
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    https://www.daft.ie/report?fr=touch

    negotiation of advertised rents must be undertaken by prospective tenants.

    I have a number of anecdotes of where tenants have been able to secure >10% off the asking price. Now the asking price as in the 2300-2500 range so I don't know what is happening in the sub 2k market (I am talking about 2 bed apts in these cases; Dublin 4 and Dalkey).


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    #1247
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I have a number of anecdotes of where tenants have been able to secure >10% off the asking price. Now the asking price as in the 2300-2500 range so I don't know what is happening in the sub 2k market (I am talking about 2 bed apts in these cases; Dublin 4 and Dalkey).

    Well my own search is 2 bed places under 2.3k and I've noticed around 10-20% reductions as well as a notable increase in places available!


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    #1248
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Well my own search is 2 bed places under 2.3k and I've noticed around 10-20% reductions as well as a notable increase in places available!

    Yeah it’s clearly nonsense to say rents haven’t dropped. Clearly landlords are making deals behind the advertised numbers as they’ll only end up with empty apartments otherwise. Daft is only based on asking prices, not realised agreed rents.


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    #1249
    gourcuff
    Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭gourcuff


    cant believe rents arent dropping.

    know various people working in the big 4 and they are all saying loads of their staff have left dublin and moved home as they can work remotely, they are saving a fortune.

    will be very hard attract these people back to the city to pay crazy rents for poor accommodation unless their job forces them to...


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    #1250
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Well my own search is 2 bed places under 2.3k and I've noticed around 10-20% reductions as well as a notable increase in places available!

    What I have noticed is properties that previously shifted very quickly are now taking much longer to shift.
    So I guess there is something afoot when they eventually move
    Looking at D3,D5, D9 ,D13


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    #1251
    rightmove
    Registered Users Posts: 994 ✭✭✭rightmove


    DubCount wrote: »
    RPZ gives a big incentive to a LL not to reduce the headline rental price.

    The real market needs to return. I know this will not suit small LL but in the long term reality needs to bite. Ancillary arrangements under the counter will be the result with no transparency for tenants


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    #1252
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    rightmove wrote: »
    The real market needs to return. I know this will not suit small LL but in the long term reality needs to bite. Ancillary arrangements under the counter will be the result with no transparency for tenants

    This was happening on the way up certainly due to RPZ.

    When will reality bite though for the REITs. I have yet to hear of them offering individual tenants rent breaks but I can't see them being able to avoid this for much longer.


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    #1253
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    This was happening on the way up certainly due to RPZ.

    When will reality bite though for the REITs. I have yet to hear of them offering individual tenants rent breaks but I can't see them being able to avoid this for much longer.

    Are the Reits not mostly the top end of the market? Perhaps the least effected by Covid.


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    #1254
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    rightmove wrote: »
    The real market needs to return. I know this will not suit small LL but in the long term reality needs to bite. Ancillary arrangements under the counter will be the result with no transparency for tenants

    What's the "Real Market"?


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    #1255
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    Yeah it’s clearly nonsense to say rents haven’t dropped. .....

    Just ignore the stats then. What ever the renter can negotiate for themselves is the only trend that matters.


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    #1256
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    gourcuff wrote: »
    cant believe rents arent dropping.

    know various people working in the big 4 and they are all saying loads of their staff have left dublin and moved home as they can work remotely, they are saving a fortune.

    will be very hard attract these people back to the city to pay crazy rents for poor accommodation unless their job forces them to...

    Well, that puts paid to the notion of the FTB market faltering. A lot of the younger renters have been saving a shed load of cash via living at home and/or not having a chance to spend it as much. Between myself and my close friends, most have professional jobs and one got a temporary salary reduction, one lost a job but the rest of us and even the one with the salary reduction have been delighted with our savings the past few months. All would be recent FTBs or potential FTBs.


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    #1257
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    beauf wrote: »
    Just ignore the stats then. What ever the renter can negotiate for themselves is the only trend that matters.

    The “stats” are asking prices not actual rent being forked over! As many posters have eluded to, many rents are not even being paid and reduced rates have been agreed due to Covid. Given the jump in supply, the only reason the asking prices are high is due to RPZ and REITs willing to accept empty apartments


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    #1258
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    The “stats” are asking prices not actual rent being forked over! As many posters have eluded to, many rents are not even being paid and reduced rates have been agreed due to Covid. Given the jump in supply, the only reason the asking prices are high is due to RPZ and REITs willing to accept empty apartments

    It makes no sense for a LL to accept lower rent under the counter. because that runs the high risk of tenant reporting it to the PRB and an enormous fine.

    You can't have it both ways, want it off the books to get lower rent, but policed officially by the PRB and heavy fines for LLs.


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    #1259
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    beauf wrote: »
    It makes no sense for a LL to accept lower rent under the counter. because that runs the high risk of tenant reporting it to the PRB and an enormous fine.

    You can't have it both ways, want it off the books to get lower rent, but policed officially by the PRB and heavy fines for LLs.

    Why can't a LL offer one month free for example, is is excluded by the RTB or something?


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    #1260
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Hard to find figures (i wonder why) but my best guesstimate is REITs are 8% of the market nationally. They are also generally very specific types of properties.
    So I don't know what percentage of 8% sitting empty is enough to skew the stats.

    But if you take it that the rental market of Dublin is about 39% of the national rental market. You could argue that REITs are 12~16% of the Dublin market.
    So how much of that sitting empty is enough to keep Dublin rents high?

    Then you have consider what influence does the top of end of the rental market influence the bottom or cheaper end of it.


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    #1261
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Why can't a LL offer one month free for example, is is excluded by the RTB or something?

    I think that could be construed as circumventing the RPZ.
    In addition if a load of income falls off the books, the tax man is going to be wondering what cash payments are being hidden from them.

    The RPZ is implemented very badly. It encourages LL on low rents to sell up and rent a new place on a higher rent.
    It discourages LL with low rents and older properties and encourages new LL (or new tenancies) and new properties as they can set the highest rents.
    In summary it causes low rents to leave the market and higher rents to enter it. Which is why rents didn't fall when it was introduced. if you are already in a tenancy its fine. But if you need to move, then it works against you.

    So you see a falling rate of renewals and a rise in the rate of new tenancies.
    Its very hard to get clear stats and figures on all this. its as if someone doesn't want us to know.


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