Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

Options
1…4041434546…112

Comments

  • Options
    #1262
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Why can't a LL offer one month free for example, is is excluded by the RTB or something?

    Exactly one month free is 8% discount effectively (if one month free follows 12 months paid). I’m sure there is many deals like this and there is also a lot of vacancies for those inflexible. I’ve been following a few properties in Leopardstown and many are vacant since March. The REIT (Elmfield) even lowered the rents


  • Options
    #1263
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    beauf wrote: »
    So you see a falling rate of renewals and a rise in the rate of new tenancies.
    Its very hard to get clear stats and figures on all this. its as if someone doesn't want us to know.

    There always is the RTB annual report- its good for stats- however, the manner in which they're presented speaks volumes.

    Edit: Just checked- they're late with the 2019 report- probably blame Covid- legally it had to be published by July (I'm not aware that there is a CRO exemption for state bodies, or a specific delay allowed because of Covid, perhaps I'm badly informed.).


  • Options
    #1264
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    At the end of the day if you manage to negotiate a great deal all power to you. Don't get hung up on the reports.

    But if you are struggling to get some of this might be helpful in being more selective in how you focus on a location or property.


  • Options
    #1265
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Something that may have been overlooked in the WFH discussion the last few pages may have been the impact of a significant drop in commercial rents and how this may impact the residential sector.

    With WFH becoming more of a thing, it may not result in a short term exodus outside of Dublin once the economy is unfrozen as the renters, who are generally younger people, prefer to be in cities. However, if offices find they do not need as much office space then this could have a significant impact on commercial rents.

    Perhaps investors find it is more worthwhile to build more residential blocks if commercial yields drop.


  • Options
    #1266
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Something that may have been overlooked in the WFH discussion the last few pages may have been the impact of a significant drop in commercial rents and how this may impact the residential sector.

    With WFH becoming more of a thing, it may not result in a short term exodus outside of Dublin once the economy is unfrozen as the renters, who are generally younger people, prefer to be in cities. However, if offices find they do not need as much office space then this could have a significant impact on commercial rents.

    Perhaps investors find it is more worthwhile to build more residential blocks if commercial yields drop.

    There is quite a bit of overhang on the residential side that needs to be worked through. It looks like some of the student places will be converted as well which will further alleviate pressure.

    If the REIT's continue to hold the line it might go on for a bit longer but sooner or later they will not be able to carry so many empties.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1267
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    To maintain social distancing you need twice the office space minimum.

    Thus far people are not leaving the cities to WFH in the middle of nowhere.

    The schools are starting back. Once they are back it makes the college's going back much less of leap.


  • Options
    #1268
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    There is quite a bit of overhang on the residential side that needs to be worked through. It looks like some of the student places will be converted as well which will further alleviate pressure.

    If the REIT's continue to hold the line it might go on for a bit longer but sooner or later they will not be able to carry so many empties.

    If we look at the US as a barometer for what's to come, it is pretty bleak or else promising depending on your position.

    https://www.ft.com/content/aaf192ac-dc94-4509-8f24-5831a32e7aa2

    This FT article tried its best to sugarcoat it but unfortunately it was too truthful for its own good.


  • Options
    #1269
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,740 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    With WFH becoming more of a thing, it may not result in a short term exodus outside of Dublin once the economy is unfrozen as the renters, who are generally younger people, prefer to be in cities. However, if offices find they do not need as much office space then this could have a significant impact on commercial rents.
    That does assume that something else is maintaining demand for city-centre residences. I am one of those crazy people who live in the centre and commute outwards, but I suspect most other people would not pay city centre costs just to be near Temple Bar.


  • Options
    #1270
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    beauf wrote: »
    To maintain social distancing you need twice the office space minimum.

    Thus far people are not leaving the cities to WFH in the middle of nowhere.

    The schools are starting back. Once they are back it makes the college's going back much less of leap.

    Once schools are back, that's essentially the end of heavy covid restrictions. It means you have probable more than a million people between the parents and kids, maybe even two million or more getting a significant part of their lives back. Other aspects of life will quickly follow, so offices etc will have clear guidance as to when they can all return and that brings workers back, there will be a bit of a bump in demand again for rentals. I think early Q1 is when demand for rentals will pick up again and late Q1 when we see a big lift in overseas travel.


  • Options
    #1271
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    PommieBast wrote: »
    That does assume that something else is maintaining demand for city-centre residences. I am one of those crazy people who live in the centre and commute outwards, but I suspect most other people would not pay city centre costs just to be near Temple Bar.

    We've had a 3-4 month break from normality. It's not long enough for people to have uprooted their entire life out of the cities and suburbs.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1272
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,740 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    beauf wrote: »
    We've had a 3-4 month break from normality. It's not long enough for people to have uprooted their entire life out of the cities and suburbs.
    How long is long enough though? Lot of talk I hear is of normality not returning until well into next year..


  • Options
    #1273
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    PommieBast wrote: »
    How long is long enough though? Lot of talk I hear is of normality not returning until well into next year..

    And 'normal' most certainly will not be a return to the good old days.

    Whatever way you try to dress things up- supply may have tripled since the downturn- however, its only to approx. 3k units- which is a pitiful small number when you consider the size of the rental market (and if you strip Dublin out of the equation- and look at national figures instead- there were only 6% more properties available nationally in May 2020- than there were in May 2019.

    Until constraints in the market are addressed- it doesn't matter how many populist ideas are implemented- the market is finite- and while the popular media may be peddling the story that the boot is on the other foot and tenants are in the ascendant in any negotiations or discussions with landlords- the constraint of supply contradicts this.


  • Options
    #1274
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Not sure what normal will mean going forward.
    I think we are all in unchartered waters.
    Even for renting.


  • Options
    #1275
    redarmyblues
    Registered Users Posts: 972 ✭✭✭redarmyblues


    landofthetree wrote: »

    Also I've heard that if a new tenant comes into a council house they have to get all new furniture and electrical goods.

    They don't have to get anything. A new tenant moving into social housing from the private rental sector or from a family home is unlikely to have any furniture or white goods. There is a grant available to new tenants but AFAIK it is means tested.


  • Options
    #1276
    TSQ
    Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭TSQ


    redarmyblues wrote: »
    They don't have to get anything. A new tenant moving into social housing from the private rental sector or from a family home is unlikely to have any furniture or white goods. There is a grant available to new tenants but AFAIK it is means tested.

    Well, it would be the rare social tenant who wouldnt pass the means test. Couple I know, both working full time, albeit in lower paid jobs, moved into a not new build council house. It was completely redecorated, carpets, new fully equipped kitchen, all f.o.c., plus they got a grant of 3k for furniture. It was like Christmas for them.


  • Options
    #1277
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,740 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    beauf wrote: »
    Not sure what normal will mean going forward.
    I think we are all in unchartered waters.
    Even for renting.
    Aside from some distortions caused by government policy, rents will go up in areas people are moving to and down in areas they are moving out. Of course which areas gain/lose is unknown, but it is not a Donald Rumsfeld unknown unknown.


    One thing to watch is whether Ireland develops a big permanent shift towards online shopping comparable to what happened in the UK over the last decade. All bets are off for commercial space if that happens.


  • Options
    #1278
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    brisan wrote: »
    I know one landlord with six properties on a self contained site
    2 tenants took rent breaks for April and May
    Both left early June without paying arrears.
    He put both on the market and neither have moved
    He gave one to his son and the other a 2 bed one bath with a fairly big courtyard is still on the market at 1850
    Normally his properties go fairly quick.
    They are close to a Dart Station , numerous bus routes , a 20 min walk to coast and a 10 min walk to St Anne’s Park.
    By my reckoning he is down close to 20 k with decorating costs.
    He won’t drop the rents as he is on a RPZ and is afraid the other tenants will look for a rent decrease.
    He's in deep s***


  • Options
    #1279
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    JamesMason wrote: »
    He's in deep s***

    He should be offering an incentive like 4/6 weeks free at this stage.


  • Options
    #1280
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    He should be offering an incentive like 4/6 weeks free at this stage.

    He could end up with tenants in all properties not paying rent, over- holding, not paying arrears or damages. That would be a lot worse.

    Not a thing he could do about it.

    Not sure how free rent is going to fix any of that.


  • Options
    #1281
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    beauf wrote: »
    He could end up with tenants in all properties not paying rent, over- holding, not paying arrears or damages. That would be a lot worse.

    Not a thing he could do about it.

    Not sure how free rent is going to fix any of that.

    Well if he is not going to look at reducing the headline rate what else can he do? It seems it has been vacant for quite a while so it looks like he needs to drop the rent one way or another.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1282
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Wait and see what happens.


  • Options
    #1283
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    beauf wrote: »
    Wait and see what happens.

    Yep examples like this are going to be a bell weather going forward.


  • Options
    #1284
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    I meant the LL can just sit on them empty and see what happens.

    People suggested LL wouldn't leave them empty. But we've been talking about vacant properties for years

    https://www.google.com/search?q=How+many+empty+Porpertyies+in+Dublin&rlz=1C1GCEB_enIE863IE863&oq=How+many+empty+Porpertyies+in+Dublin&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.11151j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


  • Options
    #1285
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    beauf wrote: »
    I meant the LL can just sit on them empty and see what happens.
    [/url]

    Definitely if they have no cashflow issues I guess.


  • Options
    #1286
    Mr Hindley
    Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭Mr Hindley


    Anecdotally, in addition to the hard stats presented by others, I can see more properties becoming available at 'reasonable' (I use that term relatively!) rents. I'm potentially going to start viewings in the Dublin area in a month or two after I move back from the UK - what's the experience like on the ground, are there still loads of people turning up to view properties and it's hugely competitive, or is it becoming easier to find somewhere decent quickly without having to battle it out against dozens of others.

    As someone who's been out of the country for a long time, it's shocking to see the quality of some of the properties - they're the ones that seem to be having to drop their price pretty heavily, as more better quality properties join the market. I was particularly struck by the one that needed a ladder to get up to the bedroom...


  • Options
    #1287
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Mr Hindley wrote: »
    I was particularly struck by the one that needed a ladder to get up to the bedroom...


    Did you need to supply your own ladder?


  • Options
    #1288
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Should always wear tights to viewings.

    You'll be sure to have a ladder handy then.


  • Options
    #1289
    Mr Hindley
    Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭Mr Hindley


    cameramonkey wrote: »
    Did you need to supply your own ladder?
    I can't find the ad now, but to be fair to the landlord, their benevolence extended to providing a ladder. It was even at a slight angle to make for easy shimmying up and down. All the mod cons!


  • Options
    #1290
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,649 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    The property ladder eh...


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1291
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    https://www.daft.ie/report

    No Q2 rental report from Daft. Very odd. I wonder if our anecdotal evidence was reflected in the data and if it has maybe terrified Daft's backers and those upon whom it relies for revenue. I've emailed to ask them when it will be available so perhaps I can take off my tinfoil hat until they reply.

    I'm shocked at home many properties are available on Daft right now in Dublin, demand must have collapsed entirely.


Advertisement