Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

GocRh

beauf wrote: »

You're still paying Irish Tax and it's only small period of time. That's entirely different.

Wrong. He'd be liable for taxes in Spain if he spends over 180 days in Spain.

beauf

GocRh wrote: »

Only if the employer does not have local representation. Hiring through a local agency also very common in IT.
My employer (Irish IT company) hires through agents in several countries where it doesn't make sense to open a local operation. Perfectly legal and does not expose the Irish entity to any liability.

They are not employees that's simply using contractors.

OwlsZat

Theres a number of vacant apartments in my complex sitting idel since the start of lockdown. The prices haven't dropped. They are all out with management companys sitting a wild rental prices. The mortgage holidays should obviously be ended in the case of 2nd properties.

GocRh

beauf wrote: »

They are not employees that's simply using contractors.

I've never said there were full time employees, I've said working remotely.
Let's just agree to disagree and go back to the housing discussion shall we?

beauf

GocRh wrote: »

Wrong. He'd be liable for taxes in Spain if he spends over 180 days in Spain.

I meant for the employer. Tax issues for the company are why people are being told they can work from home but not another country, at least in the case of people working in the UK. There are lots of ways to handle it, but the idea you can simply swan of around the world is a bit unrealistic.

Some companies also Geo fence their networks.

beauf

GocRh wrote: »

I've never said there were full time employees, I've said working remotely.
Let's just agree to disagree and go back to the housing discussion shall we?

You said "new positions" shifting goalposts I think...

GocRh

beauf wrote: »

You said "new positions" shifting goalposts I think...

A contractor is still a new position.

beauf

GocRh wrote: »

It takes pressure off the market.
How hard is that to understand?
Basic supply and demand. Supply will remain flat or go up (airbnbs going to rental market). Demand will lower.
Basic economics.

Well if there is a surplus of supply, rents will fall off a cliff and supply will be abundant. If that was the case this thread would not exist and be still trying to pull a rental rabbit out a hat.

Basic economics doesn't change the fact that more people are more people.

Jimi H

I’ve heard a number of commentators on the radio over the last few weeks suggesting that empty office blocks could perhaps be re-designated as residential properties. I know this would cause a number of design headaches and a lot of difficulties like fire escapes etc but perhaps this could be considered?

It’s quite obvious in Dublin over the last few months that there are many vacant properties and there is a need to bring some vibrancy and energy to the city. I spoke to a manager in one of the large supermarkets in the city centre and he estimated that footfall is down 45-55%. Other retail is suffering a lot more and I think we need some imagination to increase capacity and reduce rents and prices.

beauf

Jimi H wrote: »

I’ve heard a number of commentators on the radio over the last few weeks suggesting that empty office blocks could perhaps be re-designated as residential properties. I know this would cause a number of design headaches and a lot of difficulties like fire escapes etc but perhaps this could be considered?

It’s quite obvious in Dublin over the last few months that there are many vacant properties and there is a need to bring some vibrancy and energy to the city. I spoke to a manager in one of the large supermarkets in the city centre and he estimated that footfall is down 45-55%. Other retail is suffering a lot more and I think we need some imagination to increase capacity and reduce rents and prices.

Did that happen last time with all the empty buildings and a massive housing crisis? Or any other previous down turn?

GocRh

Jimi H wrote: »

I’ve heard a number of commentators on the radio over the last few weeks suggesting that empty office blocks could perhaps be re-designated as residential properties. I know this would cause a number of design headaches and a lot of difficulties like fire escapes etc but perhaps this could be considered?

It’s quite obvious in Dublin over the last few months that there are many vacant properties and there is a need to bring some vibrancy and energy to the city. I spoke to a manager in one of the large supermarkets in the city centre and he estimated that footfall is down 45-55%. Other retail is suffering a lot more and I think we need some imagination to increase capacity and reduce rents and prices.

Absolutely. We are in unprecedented times and ingenuity is what we need to bring life and people back to the city.

Government needs to get involved and actively facilitate a change in planning permission. Unfortunately I don't see the FFG coalition doing anything sensible.

GocRh

beauf wrote: »

Did that happen last time with all the empty buildings and a massive housing crisis? Or any other previous down turn?

City / downtown regeneration projects have been very successful in many countries, even in US cities in the rust belt. During a crisis is exactly when you do it as acquisition costs are much lower.

johnjoeclock

Deleted User wrote: »

Is it tinfoil hat time?

Do you require a VPN or any form of remote desktop application to do your work?

beauf

GocRh wrote: »

Absolutely. We are in unprecedented times and ingenuity is what we need to bring life and people back to the city....

I'm confused are we moving people back into the cities because they are empty. Or moving out of the cities to remote work and cheap and plentiful housing and cheap rents.

Are also saying we are ignoring all past experiences that this time it will be completely different and all the housing and rental problems we've had for a decade or more will disappear in 6 months with Covid.

Did we move to China when I wasn't looking...

OwlsZat

beauf wrote: »

Well if there is a surplus of supply, rents will fall off a cliff and supply will be abundant. If that was the case this thread would not exist and be still trying to pull a rental rabbit out a hat.

Basic economics doesn't change the fact that more people are more people.

Ya well basic economics doesn't include suspending mortgage payments for landlords who've creamed the last years. Properties are now idle. So the old free market economics has been artificially suspended as it should be dropping prices off a cliff.

beauf

He's said there were January to June 2020, 36644 new PPSNs were allocated to non-nationals.

I'm simply asking how does this increase supply. There is only more supply if we built more, or more people left then that.

Still if rents are now cheap and there no problem with supply then there is no problem.

The_Conductor

beauf wrote: »

He's said there were January to June 2020, 36644 new PPSNs were allocated to non-nationals.

I'm simply asking how does this increase supply. There is only more supply if we built more, or more people left then that.

Still if rents are now cheap and there no problem with supply then there is no problem.

Its difficult to superimpose the number of PPS numbers issued onto the number of new residents in the country- and of the figure quoted- over a quarter are British retirees and Brazilian students- neither of whom are here to work in the Irish economy (other than on a temporary basis in the case of the Brazilian students). There are a few questionable statistics (such as the unusual number of PPSNs issued to Romanians for example)- and there are no indications of net migration of the different nationalities inwards and outwards of the country. Its using one set of statistics as a proxy for statistics that we don't have- I'm not sure how true it holds.

GocRh

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its difficult to superimpose the number of PPS numbers issued onto the number of new residents in the country- and of the figure quoted- over a quarter are British retirees and Brazilian students- neither of whom are here to work in the Irish economy (other than on a temporary basis in the case of the Brazilian students). There are a few questionable statistics (such as the unusual number of PPSNs issued to Romanians for example)- and there are no indications of net migration of the different nationalities inwards and outwards of the country. Its using one set of statistics as a proxy for statistics that we don't have- I'm not sure how true it holds.

I totally understand that PPSNs aren't a perfect example, I've posted the statistics and asked for opinions and comments, in isolation it doesn't mean much.

CSO also pointing to a 14% decrease in net immigration YoY until April. A general immigration and overall population growth reduction does seem to be a trend, but still too early to tell if it will hold.

I think it's fair to say that, in general, people don't move to Ireland because we have a fantastic quality of life - good weather, affordable living and good public services (schools, health). PPSN is one indicator of immigration patterns related to work as you need a PPSN to work and pay taxes. Work is probably the main reason people move to Ireland outside of UK immigrants.

GocRh

beauf wrote: »

Are also saying we are ignoring all past experiences that this time it will be completely different and all the housing and rental problems we've had for a decade or more will disappear in 6 months with Covid.

Please point us to the last time we had a worldwide pandemic post industrial revolution. We are living in unprecedented times.

Celtic tiger and 2008/9 crash don't serve as a reference for what we are going through.

DubCount

GocRh wrote: »

Please point us to the last time we had a worldwide pandemic post industrial revolution. We are living in unprecedented times.

Spanish Flu in 1918 ?

The_Conductor

DubCount wrote: »

Spanish Flu in 1918 ?

Or TB in the 40s/50s....... (or even today- it killed over 4 million last year- and is resurgent around the globe)

beauf

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its difficult to superimpose the number of PPS numbers issued onto the number of new residents in the country- and of the figure quoted- over a quarter are British retirees and Brazilian students- neither of whom are here to work in the Irish economy (other than on a temporary basis in the case of the Brazilian students). There are a few questionable statistics (such as the unusual number of PPSNs issued to Romanians for example)- and there are no indications of net migration of the different nationalities inwards and outwards of the country. Its using one set of statistics as a proxy for statistics that we don't have- I'm not sure how true it holds.

Oh I agree entirely. I'm just saying that even taken in isolation it represents more people coming into the country then leaving it. (Remember taken in isolation) It's doesn't indicate that there is enough supply for the demand that wants it. That's before you consider all the new PPS numbers from the same source over the last decade or more. They haven't left, to create space or supply for all these new ones. It's cumulative.

It's the rate that has changed. It still an increase in population. Meaningless metric or not.

beauf

GocRh wrote: »

Please point us to the last time we had a worldwide pandemic post industrial revolution. We are living in unprecedented times.

Celtic tiger and 2008/9 crash don't serve as a reference for what we are going through.

We've had wars and all sorts of economic crisis. The economic characteristics and outcomes are almost the same. If anything we are far better equipped and informed this time then any time in the past.

imme

Air b n b
Foreign students coming to Dublin to 'learn English'
Neverending HAP

These are the major factors in rent increase in the last 10 years.

Solve these problems and you can see a normal rental sector.

beauf

imme wrote: »

Air b n b
Foreign students coming to Dublin to 'learn English'
Neverending HAP

These are the major factors in rent increase in the last 10 years.

Solve these problems and you can see a normal rental sector.

What % are these of the overall rental market.

Assetbacked

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Pinterest-cancels-huge-SF-office-lease-in-unbuilt-15523170.php

San Fran but more stuttering in the US commercial property sector which could similarly happen here.

Pinterest has paid 85m to ditch a lease on a massive new office space, which would've cost 400m+ had they committed to the term of the lease. If this happened in Dublin, eg LinkedIn abandoning Wilton Place, it of course would be a good thing for the rental market as it would take some of the heat out of the demand for city centre and commutable rentals. I think we will see similar patterns in Ireland with commercial lease defaults and office space being ditched as we are so similar to the US in terms of how the last few years property has absolutely boomed, particularly hotels and offices. As well, a lot of the private equity firms in the US have carved up the Irish commercial property sector for themselves.

PommieBast

Assetbacked wrote: »

If this happened in Dublin, eg LinkedIn abandoning Wilton Place, it of course would be a good thing for the rental market as it would take some of the heat out of the demand for city centre and commutable rentals. I think we will see similar patterns in Ireland with commercial lease defaults and office space being ditched as we are so similar to the US in terms of how the last few years property has absolutely boomed, particularly hotels and offices.

I do wonder how many of the property companies in Dublin, especially those doing new-builds, are actually solvent. The big unknown is the extent that political pressure will try to stop economics taking its natural path.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Pinterest-cancels-huge-SF-office-lease-in-unbuilt-15523170.php

San Fran but more stuttering in the US commercial property sector which could similarly happen here.

Pinterest has paid 85m to ditch a lease on a massive new office space, which would've cost 400m+ had they committed to the term of the lease. If this happened in Dublin, eg LinkedIn abandoning Wilton Place, it of course would be a good thing for the rental market as it would take some of the heat out of the demand for city centre and commutable rentals. I think we will see similar patterns in Ireland with commercial lease defaults and office space being ditched as we are so similar to the US in terms of how the last few years property has absolutely boomed, particularly hotels and offices. As well, a lot of the private equity firms in the US have carved up the Irish commercial property sector for themselves.

I think it will also be an opportunity for enterprises to negotiate or re-negotiate leases which would allow them to maintain current office space but at a lower rent.
I watched a Gartner presentation recently - their survey indicated that many enterprises intend to maintain office but transform part of its use. It also allows them flexibility into the future IF employee numbers increase.

The_Conductor

PommieBast wrote: »

I do wonder how many of the property companies in Dublin, especially those doing new-builds, are actually solvent. The big unknown is the extent that political pressure will try to stop economics taking its natural path.

Balancing the books may take precedence over any pressure that REITs and others try to assert on the government. I don't think there is any appreciation for just how bad the government finances actually are- in a European context we're probably the worst (in absolute per capita terms, and as a percent of GDP deficit for 2020)- and we have Brexit breathing down our necks.

I'm old enough to remember some of the measures that were employed in the 80s to balance the books- we could very well be in for more of the same.

beauf

I'm expecting the 80s again.

But also I know many offices are being set up for a return to work, alternative days in the office, plastic screens everywhere and one way systems in stairs and on floors, also distancing protocols in toilets shared area etc.

There will also be an issue of two sets of IT equipment. Hot desks are to be on cycle of one day in use next day deep cleaned.

I can see that people home office's will come under scrutiny if going to WFH on a longer or permanent basis.