Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

Hubertj

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's amazing how the magic money tree fallactly seems to disappear when the banks are in trouble though.

As for the other poster, I would surely vote for SF over the absolute bollockology of the last lifetime of this country.

If there was any truth in the army council calling the shots (which I don't believe), I'd prefer them over the mess that FF/FG have made when taking orders from (in the past) the church, and nowadays the banks.

And why is it always the church, or the banks?Why do FF/FG always need someone to tell them what to do?

I haven't read Eoin O'Broin's book yet, but by a majority of accounts, it is very good. I doubt the two posters above read it either.

What are you talking about magic money tree and banks in trouble?
If you want to vote SF go for it. Thankfully we live in a democracy.
Books are great. I like fiction so might read obrins book if someone gave it to me. I wouldn’t give my hard earned money to support bombers.

Smouse156

Hubertj wrote: »

What are you talking about magic money tree and banks in trouble?
If you want to vote SF go for it. Thankfully we live in a democracy.
Books are great. I like fiction so might read obrins book if someone gave it to me. I wouldn’t give my hard earned money to support bombers.

The one thing Sinn Féin/IRA would do would be to take on “vested interests”, especially insanely overpriced land! Naturally their policies are fantasy but they might do things the Landlord Party (FG) and Brickie Developers Party (FF) just refuse to contemplate to make housing/rents more affordable. I think if they formed part of a Govt it would be useful, total control would be a disaster.

Dav010

Smouse156 wrote: »

The one thing Sinn Féin/IRA would do would be to take on “vested interests”, especially insanely overpriced land! Naturally their policies are fantasy but they might do things the Landlord Party (FG) and Brickie Developers Party (FF) just refuse to contemplate to make housing/rents more affordable. I think if they formed part of a Govt it would be useful, total control would be a disaster.

SF/IRA would take on “vested interests”, the irony in that is breathtaking.

How would they influence what someone is willing to pay for development land?

ExMachina1000

Are there any libertarian parties or independents in Ireland?

Smouse156

Dav010 wrote: »

SF/IRA would take on “vested interests”, the irony in that is breathtaking.

How would they influence what someone is willing to pay for development land?

Have you heard of taxes?

Smouse156

Dav010 wrote: »

SF/IRA would take on “vested interests”, the irony in that is breathtaking.

How would they influence what someone is willing to pay for development land?

The irony is funny I agree! However, Slab Murphy’s interests etc would be left well alone. But maybe the farmer wouldn’t get 100x-1000x his income for a field

Dav010

Smouse156 wrote: »

Have you heard of taxes?

Always a vote winner, increase tax/duty on property purchase.

Smouse156

Dav010 wrote: »

Always a vote winner, increase tax/duty on property purchase.

They have always talked about higher taxes for high earners wealth etc. It’s nothing new!

If the Govt brought back in the windfall tax (80%) then at least they would get the benefit of increased land prices and could control the cost of construction more in a downturn...aka they could give vat reductions, LIHAF grants etc so they could lower the cost for the Brickie to build if prices fell. That way he could still turn a profit and keep building.

The farmer isn’t going to give back the millions for the field

Dav010

Smouse156 wrote: »

They have always talked about higher taxes for high earners wealth etc. It’s nothing new!

If the Govt brought back in the windfall tax (80%) then at least they would get the benefit of increased land prices and could control the cost of construction more in a downturn...aka they could give vat reductions, LIHAF grants etc so they could lower the cost for the Brickie to build if prices fell. That way he could still turn a profit and keep building.

The farmer isn’t going to give back the millions for the field

Increasing taxes is rarely a good platform for anyone to run on, especially when those taxes are aimed at the agriculture sector.

Nothing you have posted will reduce the asking price/cost of sites, if the Government reduce the cost of building, developers will be willing to pay more for the site. The market sets the price for land, of demand for property development falls, prices fall, right now demand is high.

Smouse156

Dav010 wrote: »

Increasing taxes is rarely a good platform for anyone to run on, especially when those taxes are aimed at the agriculture sector.

Nothing you have posted will reduce the asking price/cost of sites, if the Government reduce the cost of building, developers will be willing to pay more for the site. The market sets the price for land, of demand for property development falls, prices fall, right now demand is high.

What I’m saying is they could control the cost better. Either through an increased take of the overpriced land or through the rezoning of far more land to bring down prices. Increased vacant levy and less exemptions (example Leopardstown racecourse claiming a field that is used 2/3 times a year as overflow car park should be exempt from the vacant site levy) to get off the list would also help bring down costs.

Example, Developer pays 10M to Farmer/Land speculator for rezoned site. State in many cases gets zero. Developer builds etc. If there had been an 80% windfall tax on the site being rezoned then the state would get a significant chunk of that 10M site value. Then in a housing drop, the state could give some back to keep the development viable and we could continue to build through bull/bear housing markets...unlike 2009-2015 where nothing got build and we ended up with a huge supply crisis.

What we should ultimately want is controlled costs and a thing called “value for money” which has rarely existed for anything in Ireland.

Dav010

Smouse156 wrote: »

What I’m saying is they could control the cost better. Either through an increased take of the overpriced land or through the rezoning of far more land to bring down prices. Increased vacant levy and less exemptions (example Leopardstown racecourse claiming a field that is used 2/3 times a year as overflow car park should be exempt from the vacant site levy) to get off the list would also help bring down costs.

Example, Developer pays 10M to Farmer/Land speculator for rezoned site. State in many cases gets zero. Developer builds etc. If there had been an 80% windfall tax on the site being rezoned then the state would get a significant chunk of that 10M site value. Then in a housing drop, the state could give some back to keep the development viable and we could continue to build through bull/bear housing markets...unlike 2009-2015 where nothing got build and we ended up with a huge supply crisis.

What we should ultimately want is controlled costs and a thing called “value for money” which has rarely existed for anything in Ireland.

I know the point you are trying hard to make, but that is not going to raise the money SF/IRA need to pay for their policies, and again, selling tax hikes to voters which benefit property developers, is a tough sell indeed.

PommieBast

Assetbacked wrote: »

I don't disagree but where else will people turn if they want change since FF, FG and the Greens are now one and the same? That is what the electorate will think.

Pretty much it is either SF or the ever-swelling ranks of independents.

DubCount

PommieBast wrote: »

Pretty much it is either SF or the ever-swelling ranks of independents.

That is one of the most depressing comments I have ever read.

No sure how SF/Independents will bring long term stability to the rental market.

Glad I'm not a renter !!

The_Conductor

PommieBast wrote: »

Pretty much it is either SF or the ever-swelling ranks of independents.

Maybe Labour might rejuvenate themselves under their new leader?

PommieBast

The_Conductor wrote: »

Maybe Labour might rejuvenate themselves under their new leader?

Possible, but they are in direct competition with the SDs. The latter just have to do the cheap shot of screaming about water charges and the Enda Kenny coalition.

Yellow_Fern

Smouse156 wrote: »

What I’m saying is they could control the cost better. Either through an increased take of the overpriced land or through the rezoning of far more land to bring down prices. Increased vacant levy and less exemptions (example Leopardstown racecourse claiming a field that is used 2/3 times a year as overflow car park should be exempt from the vacant site levy) to get off the list would also help bring down costs.

Example, Developer pays 10M to Farmer/Land speculator for rezoned site. State in many cases gets zero. Developer builds etc. If there had been an 80% windfall tax on the site being rezoned then the state would get a significant chunk of that 10M site value. Then in a housing drop, the state could give some back to keep the development viable and we could continue to build through bull/bear housing markets...unlike 2009-2015 where nothing got build and we ended up with a huge supply crisis.

What we should ultimately want is controlled costs and a thing called “value for money” which has rarely existed for anything in Ireland.

Given the slow planning process, the extremely slow rate of demolition, I would argue that land in Dublin is very scarce. Is it wise to encourage developers to rushe to use it.

Smouse156

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/an-eerie-ghost-town-will-home-working-starve-our-city-centres-39501883.html

Be very interesting to see how things play out in the next year and where the new equilibrium will be for rents

The_Conductor

Smouse156 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/an-eerie-ghost-town-will-home-working-starve-our-city-centres-39501883.html

Be very interesting to see how things play out in the next year and where the new equilibrium will be for rents

A lot of people who might have gone into Dublin for a day (including retirees etc)- simply don't anymore- Dublin City Council have made an absolute haemes of the traffic system- however bad it was trying to get into Dublin in the past- its an epic journey now.

Its all well and good blaming remote working- but a significant part of the equation is that getting into or out of Dublin has been turned into a torture treatment that people are actively avoiding.

PommieBast

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its all well and good blaming remote working- but a significant part of the equation is that getting into or out of Dublin has been turned into a torture treatment that people are actively avoiding.

The way they turned all the parking bays along the Liffey into a cycle lane makes it pretty obvious that it is a political gift for the Greens rather than anything of benefit for actual locals.

Assetbacked

PommieBast wrote: »

The way they turned all the parking bays along the Liffey into a cycle lane makes it pretty obvious that it is a political gift for the Greens rather than anything of benefit for actual locals.

There's not many locals along the Liffey. David McWilliams made the point a few weeks ago that the lack of tourists in the city centre has really amplified the lack of buzz there as a result of people being priced out of being able to live there.

I know it's not really property related and more commuting but now is the time to get escooters and electric bikes going as the streets are going to be so much busier with cars over the coming months as people return to the office and avoid public transport.

PommieBast

Assetbacked wrote: »

There's not many locals along the Liffey.

I'm one of them so I am biased

David McWilliams made the point a few weeks ago that the lack of tourists in the city centre has really amplified the lack of buzz there as a result of people being priced out of being able to live there.

Over the seven years I've been living centrally I have noticed a big change. Back in 2015 meetups were mostly professionals who would be still out gone midnight, but in more recent years has tended to be language students who start disappearing after 10pm.

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

Do you really think voting bombers into power will solve anything? Idealistic socialist bollox. Looks good on paper but when it comes to reality.
Policy over the last 10-20 years has failed but to think that lot can fix thinks is naive in the extreme.

Problem is the under 40 yr old who are the majority affected by the housing crisis do not remember SF as Bombers and so will vote for change to SF,rightly or wrongly

ChikiChiki

For me all the purpose has gone in living in Dublin City. The city benefits are gone. Will likely move to a rural location after Christmas as working remotely and put the extra bit of cash away for my own place.

My housemate (who lived here 4 years) lost his job to the pandemic and gave up his room after 3 months. Subsequently he picked up another job and rang the landlord about it (2 months ago). The landlord saw fit to hike his rent by 350 euro pm this time round.

Foolish mistake in my opinion as the room is lying empty with no views since.

Assetbacked

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers?__twitter_impression=true

"Google Abandons Plan to Rent Dublin Office for 2,000 Workers".

Good news for renters anyway as this prevents a big increase to the demand for rentals in Dublin. This was a deal to rent the renovated old post office sorting depot on Macken St and obviously would've created even further demand for (pre-Covid anyway) a dwindling pool of affordable rentals for those workers.

There is no reason given for the collapse of the deal but most likely I would say the move to WFH meant it made no sense to take on an expensive lease for so much space with WFH already rendering their existing real estate presumably more than adequate.

For the investors in the commercial property market they are obviously sweating seeing this as losing such a large, blue chip could send ripples through the sector. The good news is that these investors are not Irish so the risk isn't to the Irish taxpayer.

Facebook looking to take on the old AIB site in Ballsbridge is one to watch now.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers?__twitter_impression=true

"Google Abandons Plan to Rent Dublin Office for 2,000 Workers".

Good news for renters anyway as this prevents a big increase to the demand for rentals in Dublin. This was a deal to rent the renovated old post office sorting depot on Macken St and obviously would've created even further demand for (pre-Covid anyway) a dwindling pool of affordable rentals.

There is no reason given for the collapse of the deal but most likely I would say the move to WFH meant it made no sense to take on an expensive lease for so much space with WFH already rendering their existing real estate presumably more than adequate.

For the investors in the commercial property market they are obviously sweating seeing this as losing such a large, blue chip could send ripples through the sector. The good news is that these investors are not Irish so the risk isn't to the Irish taxpayer.

Facebook looking to take on the old AIB site in Ballsbridge is one to watch now.

I didn’t know they were going to take it. Sensible move anyway - if they want to they could probably get it at a significantly reduced rate in 12-18 months?

Dav010

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers?__twitter_impression=true

"Google Abandons Plan to Rent Dublin Office for 2,000 Workers".

Good news for renters anyway as this prevents a big increase to the demand for rentals in Dublin. This was a deal to rent the renovated old post office sorting depot on Macken St and obviously would've created even further demand for (pre-Covid anyway) a dwindling pool of affordable rentals for those workers.

There is no reason given for the collapse of the deal but most likely I would say the move to WFH meant it made no sense to take on an expensive lease for so much space with WFH already rendering their existing real estate presumably more than adequate.

For the investors in the commercial property market they are obviously sweating seeing this as losing such a large, blue chip could send ripples through the sector. The good news is that these investors are not Irish so the risk isn't to the Irish taxpayer.

Facebook looking to take on the old AIB site in Ballsbridge is one to watch now.

Could it also mean they plan to cut staff/halt recruitment? That would not be good news.

Assetbacked

I was thinking that; advertising budgets are usually low hanging fruit for businesses looking to save money and Google is obviously an advertising company with a lot of sales staff in Dublin. Its stock market performance should not be used as a barometer as to its outlook for the markets it operates in, as we have seen from those stories which came out over the weekend involving Soft Bank. However, I think it is more of a WFH for the foreseeable future as a reason to not take on the lease rather than being an effort to consolidate its current position and pause growth.

I don't know about it not being good news if they did let staff go, it depends who you talk to. It would help take demand out of the rental market.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

I was thinking that; advertising budgets are usually low hanging fruit for businesses looking to save money and Google is obviously an advertising company with a lot of sales staff in Dublin. Its stock market performance should not be used as a barometer as to its outlook for the markets it operates in, as we have seen from those stories which came out over the weekend involving Soft Bank. However, I think it is more of a WFH for the foreseeable future as a reason to not take on the lease rather than being an effort to consolidate its current position and pause growth.

Also noticeable that google only seems to be hiring roles for cloud services at present.

PommieBast

Hubertj wrote: »

I didn’t know they were going to take it. Sensible move anyway - if they want to they could probably get it at a significantly reduced rate in 12-18 months?

On that sort of time scale is when a lot of construction along North Wall is going to be completed, which will add to the downward pressure. Went for a stroll last night and there's quite a few sites that look like they just broke ground.

Jizique

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers?__twitter_impression=true

"Google Abandons Plan to Rent Dublin Office for 2,000 Workers

For the investors in the commercial property market they are obviously sweating seeing this as losing such a large, blue chip could send ripples through the sector. The good news is that these investors are not Irish so the risk isn't to the Irish taxpayer.

Facebook looking to take on the old AIB site in Ballsbridge is one to watch now.

Johnny Ronan sweating I reckon - wonder will he build on Tara Street/George’s Quay.
Interesting to see the George’s Quay Plaza, bought last year, back on the market; Pat Gunne and Hibernia REIT timed it well