Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

PommieBast

JimmyVik wrote: »

What about the 3 house in Santry that has a few people sharing in it?
One decides to buy their own place to shack up with the other half.
Thats usually how house shares end in my experience

I've lost track now

I just find the statement from the EA a few posts back that everyone buying apartments are (existing) owner-occupiers to be suspect. I think in reality a lot of buyers are ex-renters who are becoming owners..

Browney7

PommieBast wrote: »

I've lost track now

I just find the statement from the EA a few posts back that everyone buying apartments are (existing) owner-occupiers to be suspect. I think in reality a lot of buyers are ex-renters who are becoming owners..

I interpreted the original statement as purchasers were buying to occupy as owners and not already owner occupiers themselves

Claw Hammer

Lux23 wrote: »

In that case, why isn't there more supply on the market for sale? I am looking for a city centre place, two bedrooms and I am not fussy about whether it is a house or an apartment, but there seems to be very little out there.

You could get a 2 bed in Dublin 7 easily. There are 26 advertised on daft. There are 31 with 2 bedooms advertised in Dublin 6.

Claw Hammer

PommieBast wrote: »

Maybe I misread the post I replied to. By "every Estate Agent says the buyer are all owner occupiers" it sounded like those who already own property rather than those going from renter to owner..

I would think they meant "intending owner occupiers". It is interesting to note that the number of units advertised is now falling. The extra supply brought about be ex air-bnbs, foreign nationals going home and students doing remote rather than renting is being absorbed.
I would think that individual part time landlords who get notice from a tenant are taking the opportunity to sell rather than trying to find a new tenant. Many of them may have been accidental landlords and stayed renting because of negative equity. many are terrified of getting a non paying tenant they can't get rid of.
The reality is that the more "protections" which are brought in for tenants, the more supply is reduced and the higher prices go.

PommieBast

Claw Hammer wrote: »

I would think that individual part time landlords who get notice from a tenant are taking the opportunity to sell rather than trying to find a new tenant. Many of them may have been accidental landlords and stayed renting because of negative equity. many are terrified of getting a non paying tenant they can't get rid of.

Any stats on notices being served after the last Level-5 eviction ban ended?

DubCount

PommieBast wrote: »

Any stats on notices being served after the last Level-5 eviction ban ended?

AFAIK all notices of eviction must be sent to the RTB now, so the RTB will know this stat. Highly doubt they will be rushing to publish it though.

The_Conductor

DubCount wrote: »

AFAIK all notices of eviction must be sent to the RTB now, so the RTB will know this stat. Highly doubt they will be rushing to publish it though.

Concur.
Anything that runs counter to their narrative either gets twisted, or simply ignored altogether.

mrslancaster

Claw Hammer wrote: »

I would think they meant "intending owner occupiers". It is interesting to note that the number of units advertised is now falling. The extra supply brought about be ex air-bnbs, foreign nationals going home and students doing remote rather than renting is being absorbed.
I would think that individual part time landlords who get notice from a tenant are taking the opportunity to sell rather than trying to find a new tenant. Many of them may have been accidental landlords and stayed renting because of negative equity. many are terrified of getting a non paying tenant they can't get rid of.
The reality is that the more "protections" which are brought in for tenants, the more supply is reduced and the higher prices go.

What is a disorderly exit of landlords? Sinn Fein's housing spokesperson said it is severely impacting renters.

Eric Cartman

mrslancaster wrote: »

What is a disorderly exit of landlords? Sinn Fein's housing spokesperson said it is severely impacting renters.

landlords are looking at what every major party has planned for them , saying 'jaysus no' and and leaving the market to let foreign owned REITs take up the reigns.

Topgear on Dave

mrslancaster wrote: »

What is a disorderly exit of landlords? Sinn Fein's housing spokesperson said it is severely impacting renters.

Disorderly! I've no idea. Any exit of landlords is going to severely impact renters.

JimmyVik

mrslancaster wrote: »

What is a disorderly exit of landlords? Sinn Fein's housing spokesperson said it is severely impacting renters.

Probably code for "we must get more legislation to lock the landlords in. We have to trap them, we cant let them just leave the business."


Get out while you can.

Manion

Eric Cartman wrote: »

landlords are looking at what every major party has planned for them , saying 'jaysus no' and and leaving the market to let foreign owned REITs take up the reigns.

What are the plans?

The_Conductor

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Disorderly! I've no idea. Any exit of landlords is going to severely impact renters.

Not necessarily- the majority of landlords leaving the sector are those who own 1 or 2 properties (which makes up 86% of the entire sector). Institutional landlords are not interested in buying up single units scattered around the place- they want nice blocks of units, or housing estates- where they can leverage scale to manage the units in a cost effective manner.

Also- the units being sold- are presumably being sold, in the main, to people who are currently renting anyway- so there could very well be a commensurate reduction (this is hypothetical of course) in demand for the units.

Either way- there is a shortage of accommodation where people want to live (predominantly in urban centres) which isn't necessarily where a majority of the units being sold are situated/located.

We critically need large volumes of appropriately built, high density units in our urban centres, and we critically need to try and call a halt to our insane urban sprawl.

If Sinn Féin have some plan to forbid landlords sell their property- or force them to sell with a sitting tenant who cannot be evicted, they will devalue the property, potentially leaving the exchequer open to claims for the value by which the property is devalued- which the tax payer would have to pay.

We need the local authorities to step in- and construct large volumes of units, for both social and affordable housing- and get the hell away from the private rental sector (which would presumably drift to a sustainable levels- to the benefit of everyone).

I'd love to see what Eoin O'Broin has in mind- how he thinks he can stop landlords from leaving the sector. Landlords have voted with their feet- with a net reduction in nos. since Q1 2016- some new scheme to tangle landlords up in yet more regressive legislation- is only going to have one effect- speeding up the stampede to the door.

mrslancaster

mrslancaster wrote: »

What is a disorderly exit of landlords? Sinn Fein's housing spokesperson said it is severely impacting renters.

Landlords are the high earners SF expect to tax to redistribute wealth from the worker to the waster. It's an expected exit tbh and if SF ever get into government I can't imagine too many folk will fancy the buy to let route.

The_Conductor

Augeo wrote: »

Landlords are the high earners SF expect to tax to redistribute wealth from the worker to the waster. It's an expected exit tbh and if SF ever get into government I can't imagine too many folk will fancy the buy to let route.

According to the Revenue Commissioners (and if I can find an online reference to this I'll post it later), over 70% of landlords report less than 20k in rental income via their Form 11 tax returns on an annual basis, which results (after allowable deductions) in an average taxable rental income of 14k.

Landlords are not the milch cows that SF seem to imagine them to be.

Indeed all too many reckon €14k taxable rental income onto a salary of €60k puts you on almost the money TDs are on ........... and if your partner is also working sure ye are loaded altogether.

No thoughts of the two mortgages, creche fees etc etc.

That's how folk paying €20/week out of their social welfare for their "rent" think when they sh1t on about how their lovely daughter is on the housing list for 14 months and still hasn't her forever home.

cgcsb

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed all too many reckon €14k taxable rental income onto a salary of €60k puts you on almost the money TDs are on ........... and if your partner is also working sure ye are loaded altogether.

No thoughts of the two mortgages, creche fees etc etc.

That's how folk paying €20/week out of their social welfare for their "rent" think when they sh1t on about how their lovely daughter is on the housing list for 14 months and still hasn't her forever home.

poor people and slightly poorer people bashing each other is a great trick of the elite while they make off with your almost free public land and sell us back public housing on said land for €700k a pop, and not an eyelid batted.

The_Conductor

cgcsb wrote: »

poor people and slightly poorer people bashing each other is a great trick of the elite while they make off with your almost free public land and sell us back public housing on said land for €700k a pop, and not an eyelid batted.

Reminds me of that quote by Baudelaire - The greatest trick the devil ever played, was convincing men that he did not exist.

Its a classical divide and conquer tactic- its been going on for time immemorial.

cgcsb

cgcsb wrote: »

poor people and slightly poorer people bashing each other is a great trick of the elite while they make off with your almost free public land and sell us back public housing on said land for €700k a pop, and not an eyelid batted.

SF just seem to focus on making life worse for the poor while dancing to the tune of the alleged poorer.

Claw Hammer

There is no doubt rents have been falling since Covid. The surprise is that the fall has not been greater. !0-15 % would seem to be the height of it so far. Part of that may be due to Dubs leaving home due to WFH and finding themselves cooped up in lockdown. There may also be some chicken coop lettings unravelling as the occupants can negotiate better conditions for the same money in other accommodation. One agent told me yesterday that a number of long time vacant properties have now been let since January. When the students and tourists come back, it is going to be tight.

The_Conductor

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There is no doubt rents have been falling since Covid. The surprise is that the fall has not been greater. !0-15 % would seem to be the height of it so far. Part of that may be due to Dubs leaving home due to WFH and finding themselves cooped up in lockdown. There may also be some chicken coop lettings unravelling as the occupants can negotiate better conditions for the same money in other accommodation. One agent told me yesterday that a number of long time vacant properties have now been let since January. When the students and tourists come back, it is going to be tight.

I'm not sure its any great surprise that they haven't fallen further.
Tenants aren't moving- and a lot of landlords who are getting vacant properties back, are not expeditiously reletting them (some can't hold viewings with Covid- and a sizable number are probably doing work on units to bring them up to standard so they can be sold).

I'd say as soon as restrictions are lifted- we'll both see more units falling in asking prices- and more units hitting the sale market.

We are in a new 'normal', things are not going to go back to how they were, hopefully, ever.

Claw Hammer

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm not sure its any great surprise that they haven't fallen further.
Tenants aren't moving- and a lot of landlords who are getting vacant properties back, are not expeditiously reletting them (some can't hold viewings with Covid- and a sizable number are probably doing work on units to bring them up to standard so they can be sold).

I'd say as soon as restrictions are lifted- we'll both see more units falling in asking prices- and more units hitting the sale market.

We are in a new 'normal', things are not going to go back to how they were, hopefully, ever.

Many tenants have moved, taking the opportunity to negotiate a better deal whilst others have left the country. The number of advertised units is falling. That can only mean there is some demand in the market and units are being taken up. In the 1980s rents fell for years.

Timing belt

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm not sure its any great surprise that they haven't fallen further.
Tenants aren't moving- and a lot of landlords who are getting vacant properties back, are not expeditiously reletting them (some can't hold viewings with Covid- and a sizable number are probably doing work on units to bring them up to standard so they can be sold).

I'd say as soon as restrictions are lifted- we'll both see more units falling in asking prices- and more units hitting the sale market.

We are in a new 'normal', things are not going to go back to how they were, hopefully, ever.

The supply is still the same as before covid so it is only the demand that has changed due to WFH and lower immigration.

If immigration picks up to pre covid levels then we may see prices back to pre-covid levels.

It will be interesting to see what impact WFH will have especially with the younger population as it is a lot harder to climb the corporate ladder WFH than in an office. (Whether this is right or wrong is a totally different matter)

Claw Hammer

Timing belt wrote: »

The supply is still the same as before covid so it is only the demand that has changed due to WFH and lower immigration.

If immigration picks up to pre covid levels then we may see prices back to pre-covid levels.

It will be interesting to see what impact WFH will have especially with the younger population as it is a lot harder to climb the corporate ladder WFH than in an office. (Whether this is right or wrong is a totally different matter)

The migration pattern has become one of returning Irish ex-pats, existing emigrants leaving Ireland and fewer immigrants. The other factor is that the children of the Celtic Tiger are now entering the workforce and forming new households.

Timing belt

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The migration pattern has become one of returning Irish ex-pats, existing emigrants leaving Ireland and fewer immigrants. The other factor is that the children of the Celtic Tiger are now entering the workforce and forming new households.

Agreed that the demand will still be strong especially seeing as we are still not building enough each year to meet the new demand coming on stream. The Questions is what location this demand will be in? Dublin/WFH location.

Lux23

Claw Hammer wrote: »

You could get a 2 bed in Dublin 7 easily. There are 26 advertised on daft. There are 31 with 2 bedooms advertised in Dublin 6.

Not on my budget!

JimmyVik

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The migration pattern has become one of returning Irish ex-pats, existing emigrants leaving Ireland and fewer immigrants. The other factor is that the children of the Celtic Tiger are now entering the workforce and forming new households.

A lot of students to return too I think.

cgcsb

Augeo wrote: »

SF just seem to focus on making life worse for the poor while dancing to the tune of the alleged poorer.

Maybe direct your bile at FFG who are actually currently in power and setting the shambles of our current housing policy, which seems to benefit none of the working class, none of the middle class and none of the unemployed but rather a short list of investors. SF haven't had the opportunity to make a hames of housing yet so condemning their theoretical housing policy (or whatever elaborate and unsubstantiated claim you've made about their housing policy) seems a slight waste of breath.

Yellow_Fern

cgcsb wrote: »

Maybe direct your bile at FFG who are actually currently in power and setting the shambles of our current housing policy, which seems to benefit none of the working class, none of the middle class and none of the unemployed but rather a short list of investors. SF haven't had the opportunity to make a hames of housing yet so condemning their theoretical housing policy (or whatever elaborate and unsubstantiated claim you've made about their housing policy) seems a slight waste of breath.

hell of an allegation. What investors? Name them.

Dav010

Yellow_Fern wrote: »

hell of an allegation. What investors? Name them.

I suspect the poster is referring to REITs/corporate investors who benefit from lower tax rates than LLs who own one property. Their names are regularly published, one bought a whole development in Lucan last week, google is your friend.