Dublin is NOT significantly more infected than any other county.

timsey tiger

Ballso wrote: »

What you are effectively saying here is that urban dwellers with the option to go isolate in a property in an area with lower density should not have done this, and instead should have stayed in the higher risk area to protect you. Is that it?

Yes, people should stay put. The reason for this should not be that difficult to grasp.

People, just can't stay in their homes, they have to go out to get food, petrol etc.

If you have people moving around the country to second homes etc. you are going to get new outbreaks making the task of "flattening the curve" more difficult.

One eyed Jack

timsey tiger wrote: »

I suppose, as I especially don't wish to get sued. However given the remove of 150 years or so from the famine, do we still consider the actions of the government at the time to be explained by incompetence or stupidity.

Or, do we consider, the whole indifference to the plight of the poor in the interests of the economy, to be something more sinister.

I’d consider the actions of Government at the time to be explained by both incompetence and stupidity tbh - believing they were taking the correct course of action at the time, which in hindsight turned out to have dire consequences for society as a whole, not just people who were poor already.

I just haven’t seen any indifference to the plight of the poor in the interests of the economy, if anything Governments across the globe have been demonstrating quite the opposite. Herd immunity was a stupid idea from the get-go when there is no vaccine available, but suggesting that promoting it was a deliberate attempt to eradicate the poorest in society doesn’t stand up to scrutiny when we know that the virus doesn’t care much for human concepts like geographic and political boundaries, economics or social status. Biology is pretty indiscriminate that way.

DeVore

Tea Shock wrote: »

Except medical staff do not act in a different manner to others - they still go to the shop and live with (and likely infect) others who also go to the shops.....just the same as any other profession who gets the virus.

But where your point does have some validity is that probably most, if not all healthcare professionals have been tested (although I'm not sure that the 1,300 number that you say have tested positive has a proper source?)

Everything I work from is sourced from good data sources... sorry, I thought I had linked it.

That 1300 Healthcare workers number is from the Gov.ie site, so straight from the horses mouth. Its up to 1,765 in the latest numbers.

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/695f10-an-analysis-of-the-6444-cases-of-covid-19-in-ireland-as-of-tuesday-7/

DeVore

irishguy1983 wrote: »

I know - it seems like some of the Dublin folk have taken this quite personally....Look at all the cars trying to get out of Dublin....

I still think restrictions should be relaxed in certain areas in Ireland - having the same lockdown in Dublin and the same in some rural areas in Ireland is ludicrous....If it helps I live in Cork City and believe we should have same lockdown as Dublin....People turning this into Dublin V rest of country are missing the point - would love to see certain people/areas go back to work...

Except there arent loads of cars leaving Dublin.

Once again, with the data. (I knoooow, look at me and my "facts").

https://twitter.com/ClairejFrench/status/1248241286974451715

https://twitter.com/ClairejFrench/status/1248570278029950976




Source: https://www.tii.ie/roads-tolling/operations-and-maintenance/traffic-count-data/

10 in a row

Treat everyone as if they have it, and behave around others as if you have it.

timsey tiger

One eyed Jack wrote: »

I’d consider the actions of Government at the time to be explained by both incompetence and stupidity tbh - believing they were taking the correct course of action at the time, which in hindsight turned out to have dire consequences for society as a whole, not just people who were poor already.

I just haven’t seen any indifference to the plight of the poor in the interests of the economy, if anything Governments across the globe have been demonstrating quite the opposite. Herd immunity was a stupid idea from the get-go when there is no vaccine available, but suggesting that promoting it was a deliberate attempt to eradicate the poorest in society doesn’t stand up to scrutiny when we know that the virus doesn’t care much for human concepts like geographic and political boundaries, economics or social status. Biology is pretty indiscriminate that way.

Not a deliberate act as such, but a consequence they were aware of that maybe they were not too worried about.

irishguy1983

DeVore wrote: »

Except there arent loads of cars leaving Dublin.

Once again, with the data. (I knoooow, look at me and my "facts").

https://twitter.com/ClairejFrench/status/1248241286974451715

https://twitter.com/ClairejFrench/status/1248570278029950976




Source: https://www.tii.ie/roads-tolling/operations-and-maintenance/traffic-count-data/

Dead right - I was being flippant on the cars comment All other comments stand

Pintman Paddy Losty

Deary me. This is an embarrassing thread I have to say. Not even sure what point the OP was trying to make?

After reading the first 3 pages and the entire premise of the post was disproved but they just kept going.

irishguy1983

In Germany they will be looking at regions and easing restrictions that way - ummmmmm I appreciate Germany is different and is more split up than us so to speak but these are unusual times....

GazzaL

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Deary me. This is an embarrassing thread I have to say. Not even sure what point the OP was trying to make?

After reading the first 3 pages and the entire premise of the post was disproved but they just kept going.

I thought it would've been deleted for being grossly misleading and dishonest. The fake news thread title was disproved in the first post. More cases and a higher percentage of the population in Dublin have the virus than anywhere else in the country.

auspicious

Does anyone please have the latest HSE coronavirus cases map, or a link to, which doesn't blur when zoomed in?

cgcsb

eddie73 wrote: »

Yes Dublin is a higher infected area.

Not only because more people have it there but because the population density is larger. Dublin county is small in area and almost exclusively urban.

Shops are more crowded. Those that still use public transport are running a bigger risk.

Thats just fact rather than fiction.

About 50% of County Dublin's land area is urban, not much more than County Louth.

cgcsb

What is the point of this thread out of curiosity?

auspicious

cgcsb wrote: »

What is the point of this thread out of curiosity?

It was designed to give clarity to the infection stats in Dublin by explaining the health staff skew the figures presented as they hold a different value if you like to the distribution of infection across lay soceity. i.e. health staff are more exposed than everyone else so by removing them from the stats you see a different set of numbers.

ShineOn7

cgcsb wrote: »

What is the point of this thread out of curiosity?

There's scientists in NASA fervently trying to figure that out

I lost a lot of respect for DeVore because of this thread. It's like a Daily Mail article with extra diagrams

DeVore

auspicious wrote: »

It was designed to give clarity to the infection stats in Dublin by explaining the health staff skew the figures presented as they hold a different value if you like to the distribution of infection across lay soceity. i.e. health staff are more exposed than everyone else so by removing them from the stats you see a different set of numbers.

Exactly this.

Plus the car movement data I posted in this post: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113117044&postcount=155

DeVore

DeVore wrote: »

Exactly this.

Plus the car movement data I posted in this post: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113117044&postcount=155

The reason it makes sense for Dublin and other cities to have more stringent lockdown criteria is because 10,000 living in a 2km radius is a different scenario than 100 people living in a 2km radius.
It's nothing to do with anti Dublin prejudice.
It's about population density, and everyone knows how dense the Dubs are.

DeVore

For the giggles... here's the lastest data.

County Cases Pop Proportion %
Carlow 59 56932 0.104
Cavan 310 76176 0.407
Clare 119 118817 0.100
Cork 916 542868 0.169
Donegal 320 159192 0.201
Dublin 6337 1347359 0.470
Galway 260 258058 0.101
Kerry 246 147707 0.167
Kildare 567 222504 0.255
Kilkenny 173 99232 0.174
Laois 133 84697 0.157
Leitrim 43 32044 0.134
Limerick 307 194899 0.158
Longford 77 40873 0.188
Louth 350 128884 0.272
Mayo 249 130507 0.191
Meath 405 195044 0.208
Monaghan 161 61386 0.262
Offaly 163 77961 0.209
Roscommon 57 64544 0.088
Sligo 66 65535 0.101
Tipperary 251 159553 0.157
Waterford 101 116176 0.087
Westmeath 309 88770 0.348
Wexford 71 149722 0.047
Wicklow 375 142425 0.263

Woke Hogan

DeVore wrote: »

Please take the discussion of Dubliners vs Culchies and who subsidises who somewhere else, ideally off Boards, thanks.

Oh my god. How obnoxious.

DeVore

I'm one of the administrators of the site. Part of my role here is to police what gets discussed. I have a responsibility to enforce the civility rules.

sydthebeat

i serious dont see why people have a problem with the premise if this thread??

if you disagree with the arguments presented, argue against them...
as far as i can see only the OP has presented actual facts to back up their argument... the best argument against it is 'the semantics are incorrrect'
calls for 'why does the thread exist', and 'why hasnt it been deleted' is just showing an inability to make an argument.

personally i think the OP is stretching the elastic a bit, but i appreciate the title of the thread is "not significantly more infected" which by all accounts is correct.

DeVore

Thank you. Thats basically my thoughts too. Not one serious objection to the data (and I *didnt* remove the health workers in either set BUT I suggest people DO in order to see the underlying trend).

What is wrong with this site? I can't attach the image I want to show how Dublin is far higher infection rate than the rest of the country. I don't think it's anti dublin bias but Dublin is the epicentre of the virus in Ireland.

I work in Dublin and it's a lot worse here than other areas of the country than other areas of the country at the moment.

Edit: Finally got it done.

KyussB

I don't think people would object to the data - they're the numbers we have, and they're informative, within their limits - but certainly, people object to the way the data has been interpreted.

There were claims made that e.g. Dublin/Cavan may carry the same likelihood of being infected - but tbh the focus should be much more on how bad the coverage of testing is, and how the data can't be considered accurate enough to make those kinds of judgements about risk.

Here is a good article on Nassim Taleb, on how judgements abuot risk like that, are not the place for epidemiologists/virologists and regular data-scientists etc. to make judgements on - that their area of expertise is not accurate for modelling this type of risk (that it can't be modelled) - that you need specialists on proper risk analysis with complex systems:
www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html

sydthebeat

Deleted User wrote: »

What is wrong with this site? I can't attach the image I want to show how Dublin is far higher infection rate than the rest of the country. I don't think it's anti dublin bias but Dublin is the epicentre of the virus in Ireland.

I work in Dublin and it's a lot worse here than other areas of the country than other areas of the country at the moment.

Edit: Finally got it done.

it has far higher infection "numbers" ..... not necessarily infection "rate" ... theres a big difference.

you only have to look 7 posts up to see the rate is NOT significantly higher... even without any of the mitigation factors that Dev is arguing.

Dublin has 403 infections/ 100,000.

Cavan is next with 321/ 100,000.

Everybody else is less than 300 infections/ 100,000.

I don't understand how you can say Dublin isn't more significantly infected than the rest of the country.

Dublin has 4 times the average infection rate of HSE west + HSE northwest combined. That is hugely significant.

Doctor Jimbob

DeVore wrote: »

For the giggles... here's the lastest data.

County Cases Pop Proportion %
Carlow 59 56932 0.104
Cavan 310 76176 0.407
Clare 119 118817 0.100
Cork 916 542868 0.169
Donegal 320 159192 0.201
Dublin 6337 1347359 0.470
Galway 260 258058 0.101
Kerry 246 147707 0.167
Kildare 567 222504 0.255
Kilkenny 173 99232 0.174
Laois 133 84697 0.157
Leitrim 43 32044 0.134
Limerick 307 194899 0.158
Longford 77 40873 0.188
Louth 350 128884 0.272
Mayo 249 130507 0.191
Meath 405 195044 0.208
Monaghan 161 61386 0.262
Offaly 163 77961 0.209
Roscommon 57 64544 0.088
Sligo 66 65535 0.101
Tipperary 251 159553 0.157
Waterford 101 116176 0.087
Westmeath 309 88770 0.348
Wexford 71 149722 0.047
Wicklow 375 142425 0.263

That shows most counties have around 0.1-0.2% of the population infected while Dublin is close to 0.5%. I really don't see how it can be argued that Dublin isn't significantly more infected than the rest of the country. The only county that comes close is Cavan.

sydthebeat

Deleted User wrote: »

Dublin has 403 infections/ 100,000.

Cavan is next with 321/ 100,000.

Everybody else is less than 300 infections/ 100,000.

I don't understand how you can say Dublin isn't more significantly infected than the rest of the country.

i guess it depends on your definition of "significantly"..

personally i dont see approx 100% higher case rate to the surround counties as being in any way significant, when you consider that it has a population density of approx 1000% of the same counties. then when you take into account the health staff argument as well which absolutely skew the numbers.

as a comparison, stockholm in sweden has 500% higher infection rate than its nearest region.

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

i guess it depends on your definition of "significantly"..

personally i dont see approx 100% higher case rate to the surround counties as being in any way significant, when you consider that it has a population density of approx 1000% of the same counties. then when you take into account the health staff argument as well which absolutely skew the numbers.

as a comparison, stockholm in sweden has 500% higher infection rate than its nearest region.

400% increase in infections is significant. For example, Meath has 175 infections / population. Dublin is over 200% of this. Also, the main reason that counties neighbouring Dublin have higher rates is that people commute from places like Kildare, Meath et al.

Downlinz

Deleted User wrote: »

Dublin has 403 infections/ 100,000.

Cavan is next with 321/ 100,000.

Everybody else is less than 300 infections/ 100,000.

I don't understand how you can say Dublin isn't more significantly infected than the rest of the country.

Dublin has 4 times the average infection rate of HSE west + HSE northwest combined. That is hugely significant.

A coping mechanism for people who live in Dublin I'd imagine. It's a scary enough situation at present without facing the reality of living in the epicentre.