The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

Hmmzis

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Hmmzis, what do you believe the IFR to be at?

Personally, I think it could be around the 0.5 to 1.5% mark. Still a bit early to tell and very dependent on the population one looks at.

I'd say the US is going to do on the worse side of it, given the rampant obesity there and the varying measuers taken to contain the spread of infections and NY has been overrun.

Northern Europe and Eastern Europe could be closer to the better side of that range. North due to better healtcare systems, East due to demografics (not that many old and vulnerable people left there to bring the IFR up).
Central Europe might be a bit higher than the North except Germany, they're a powerhouse and have massive capacity in their system.
South had their healtcare systems overrun (except Greece I think), so I wouldn' even guess what that means for the IFR value.

Also, the IFR value is highly dependent on how the deaths are reported. In Ireland anyone infected who passes away is counted as a Covid fatality. In other countries that approach is different. Keeping that in mind, it could end up skewing the IFR values to the uglier end.

ShineOn7

Not the "conspiracy" side of this Tweet, moreso the numbers



https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1254187423011045385

Cupatae

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Not the "conspiracy" side of this Tweet, moreso the numbers



https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1254187423011045385

Culture is the difference. Asian people were about that mask life...before it was "cool" if you will.

IAMAMORON

Cupatae wrote: »

Culture is the difference. Asian people were about that mask life...before it was "cool" if you will.

Stop codding yourself. If you are surmising that there is such a large difference because the Japanese and other Asian countries are wearing masks you are either being lazy or have formed opinions around mask wearing. Or something else.

The reality is that the reason the virus did not spread yet through Tokyo is because at the time of the outbreak their was still the potential of the Olympics going ahead in a couple of months. You can be assured that any evidence of Corona virus on mainland Japan has been buried.

Japan might be a capitalist society but I would not make the mistake of thinking that they are not nurturing some extreme nationalistic agendas. Look up the Nangjing massacre to see what their granddaddies were capable of when they decided to invade mainland China. Just because they brought you Sushi, the Sony Walkman or the Honda motorbike does not saints of them make, at all.

If this virus has thought me anything it has been to look at the entire continent of Asia with a slightly more cynical eye. I mean that. I have not decided if it is their governments or their people, but my mind has opened slightly. It does appear that they have notions when it comes to the truth.

Jurgen Klopp

Or could be the fact Japan had universal rollout of the BCG vaccination for TB same as us and Portugal

Spain, Italy, US and UK didn't, that's what got scientists looking at it

IAMAMORON

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Or could be the fact Japan had universal rollout of the BCG vaccination for TB same as us and Portugal

Spain, Italy, US and UK didn't, that's what got scientists looking at it

Still would not explain every thing. I have a very open mind but unless it is proven that persons with TB inoculations have not contracted the virus I will struggle with such solutions. Too vague.

Jurgen Klopp

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Still would not explain every thing. I have a very open mind but unless it is proven that persons with TB inoculations have not contracted the virus I will struggle with such solutions. Too vague.

Except you are pulling that out of the air and talking to yourself over something that hasn't been mentioned.

No scientist has ever mentioned it stops you getting C19 their reason of study is the vaccine had shown to help suppress symptoms in other types res tract infections so they are investigating whether it will also help boost people who catch c19 too and in turn not lead to as serious complications

Cupatae

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Stop codding yourself. If you are surmising that there is such a large difference because the Japanese and other Asian countries are wearing masks you are either being lazy or have formed opinions around mask wearing. Or something else.

The reality is that the reason the virus did not spread yet through Tokyo is because at the time of the outbreak their was still the potential of the Olympics going ahead in a couple of months. You can be assured that any evidence of Corona virus on mainland Japan has been buried.

Japan might be a capitalist society but I would not make the mistake of thinking that they are not nurturing some extreme nationalistic agendas. Look up the Nangjing massacre to see what their granddaddies were capable of when they decided to invade mainland China. Just because they brought you Sushi, the Sony Walkman or the Honda motorbike does not saints of them make, at all.

If this virus has thought me anything it has been to look at the entire continent of Asia with a slightly more cynical eye. I mean that. I have not decided if it is their governments or their people, but my mind has opened slightly. It does appear that they have notions when it comes to the truth.

Can you provide proof of this?

IAMAMORON

Cupatae wrote: »

Can you provide proof of this?

What of the Nanjing massacre?

IAMAMORON

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Except you are pulling that out of the air and talking to yourself over something that hasn't been mentioned.

No scientist has ever mentioned it stops you getting C19 their reason of study is the vaccine had shown to help suppress symptoms in other types res tract infections so they are investigating whether it will also help boost people who catch c19 too and in turn not lead to as serious complications

We will know in a couple of months according to the RTE virologist, he was just on the telly there.

I've held back posting updates lately in the hope that additional data around the nursing homes figures would be released. Sadly this has not been the case so all I have to go on are the rolled up totals of nursing homes and general public combined. This is frustrating as there are regular mentions of the rate of infection reproduction (r value) being between 0.5-1 at the moment, but this is not reflected in the numbers being released.

On the contrary, due to the shift towards mass testing in nursing homes, there were even some spikes in the numbers over the last week. My hope is that as this testing is completed, the numbers start to reflect reality because right now we have 2 sets of data being talked about but only 1 set being released.

Anyway, to kick off, there were, sadly, 59 new deaths and 229 new cases confirmed today which brings the deaths/cases totals to 1159 & 19877 respectively.



Todays figure of 229 new cases translates into an r value of 1.012.



While a one day rate looks great, its often better to take a larger pool of data to negate the effects of spikes and confirm trends. So the averages over the last 2 weeks are as follows and are all looking good in terms of going in the right direction. We are verging on hitting the peak according to the data.

• 14 day avg - 1.040
• 10 day avg - 1.030
• 7 day avg - 1.031
• 5 day avg - 1.025
• 3 day avg - 1.023

This means we are reaching the plateau in terms of growth but we're not quite there yet.



As mentioned, the daily rate for today looks great, and if it keeps going that way over the next few days, we should start to see our daily case numbers following the path of the gray bars below rather than the orange/yellow.



Lastly, the counties breakdown. I spoke before about Cavan standing out as having a particularly high rate of infection per 10k population. Since my last update Cavan has surged ahead with the highest rate of 82 per 10k population. I dug a little deeper and found that over 30% of all the cases for Cavan occurred in the last 7-8 days indicating that the nursing home testing in that county is highlighting some serious problems.



Province County Total Cases Rate per 10k 2016 Population Population Density
Connacht Galway 332 13 258,058 42
Connacht Leitrim 67 21 32,044 20.1
Connacht Mayo 466 36 130,507 23.3
Connacht Roscommon 141 22 64,544 25.3
Connacht Sligo 117 18 65,535 35.5
Leinster Carlow 93 16 56,932 63.4
Leinster Dublin 9,624 71 1,347,359 1,459.20
Leinster Kildare 1147 52 222,504 131
Leinster Kilkenny 233 23 99,232 47.8
Leinster Laois 212 25 84,697 49.3
Leinster Longford 135 33 40,873 37.4
Leinster Louth 640 50 128,884 155.4
Leinster Meath 638 33 195,044 83.2
Leinster Offaly 236 30 77,961 38.9
Leinster Westmeath 448 50 88,770 48.2
Leinster Wexford 162 11 149,722 63.2
Leinster Wicklow 558 39 142,425 70.2
Munster Clare 229 19 118,817 34.4
Munster Cork 1126 21 542,868 72.3
Munster Kerry 288 19 147,707 30.7
Munster Limerick 518 27 194,899 70.8
Munster Tipperary 370 23 159,553 37.2
Munster Waterford 138 12 116,176 62.7
Ulster Cavan 627 82 76,176 39.3
Ulster Donegal 453 28 159,192 32.6
Ulster Monaghan 385 63 61,386 47.3


To sum up, todays rate of 1.012 is great, but its a single data point so should be read into too deeply. We are still going in the right direction, slowly, or maybe quite fast, I don't know. Its honestly frustrating to try make sense of this data when you know its not the complete picture.

Next update Friday

Cupatae

IAMAMORON wrote: »

What of the Nanjing massacre?

Think you posted in the wrong thread, this is about covid 19

IAMAMORON

Cupatae wrote: »

Think you posted in the wrong thread, this is about covid 19

Oh dear.

ShineOn7

Why aren't we seeing a drop in the daily fatalities after weeks of restrictions?

Cupatae

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Oh dear.

You named yourself well anyway.

IAMAMORON

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Why aren't we seeing a drop in the daily fatalities after weeks of restrictions?

It indicates how resilient the virus is. It is still managing to infect people even though the restrictions are in place. It is obviously still difficult to manage, it could be a lot worse all things considered.

Dublin is obviously an epicentre and you can see how transport networks are directly affected. Louth, Meath, Kildare and Westmeath are all commuter areas which have high infection rates. Even Cavan/Monaghan is very high. However it is worth noting that Cavan general serves both Cavan, Monaghan and parts of East Leitrim, this must be considered when scrutinising the high rate in Cavan.

I also think that given how silently it spreads areas are clueless as to how to combat it, people don't know when or how they are getting infected. This compounds my opinion that contact tracing is fairly futile, it might help in more rural settings, but I reckon you are pissing into the wind in cities. Given it takes sometimes up to 2 weeks for someone to show symptoms ( if they do at all ) , you have to imagine contacting everyone in time is pointless. I don't think it can be used as an effective preventive measure. The entire testing mantra seems pointless also.

DeVore

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Why aren't we seeing a drop in the daily fatalities after weeks of restrictions?

We are compared to what it could be doing. If this was running wild in an "unlockeddown" city/country, we'd be seeing an exponential growth. 1 becomes 2.5 , becomes 6 becomes 15 etc...

We're not seeing that because of the constraints. Unfortunately people live with others. People are still working essential jobs. Front line health care workers make up 25% of the known cases and more than that of the recent cases.

What we are doing IS working. Its just what you have to compare against that you have to consider.

How do we know this? We have other countries that went ahead of us and our own growth rate pre-lockdown to compare it to.
Look at this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/
Ignore the jump up at the 23rd April, its a reporting oddity. Look at the graph and notice how its flattening. Thats the result of what we have been doing.
If we hadnt locked down, we would still be looking at the earlier part of the graph going north rapidly.

ShineOn7

Taking the numbers to the closest thousand (roughly)

Fatalities - 1,000
Cases - 20,000

Doesn't this mean the mortality rate of it in Ireland stands at 5%?

trapp

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Taking the numbers to the closest thousand (roughly)

Fatalities - 1,000
Cases - 20,000

Doesn't this mean the mortality rate of it in Ireland stands at 5%?

Officialy possibly yes

But given our narrow testing range and not noticing asymptomatic or very mild cases you can be sure its a lot less

Prof nolan says they assume 5 cases for every 1 they have which would put actual cases at 100,000

And mortality rate at 1% including the nursing home sitution

DeVore

It means the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is 5% but thats definitely being affected by the testing approach.

CFR is a crude tool at the best of times. Its defined (as you said) by Death / Known Cases.

For something like HIV, we dont go out into the general populace and actively *look* for the virus, but we do approach "at risk groups" and ask them to get tested.

For something like Flu we dont do that at all, we test the people who are symptomatic and who need a diagnosis. So, its roughly ok to compare CFR's but bearing that in mind. During a pandemic those numbers are skewed to bits, we dont have the tests to test even the symptomatic people. We have very small numbers both on the deaths side and on the tested side. ie if 100 of our 1000 deaths were from something unrelated, and the person would have recovered from the Covid they were tested and positive for, then the % changes quite a bit.
Same for the testing side, if we only tested the symptomatic people (ala Flu) then we would be doing a HUGE disservice to the population by letting this virus run rampant without contact tracing etc. So that number is much bigger than normal, making the % smaller than the flu.

In China which seems to have "come out of the other side" so to speak, (if you believe them, which I'm not inclined to do), their CFR was about 2.4%
It seems likely that the number people WANT to talk about is the mortality rate for the whole country. ie: if you have 10 Million people in your county, how many are likely to die from this. Thats a tough one to call too, because country's populations vary in age profile, in their social interactions, in their health care systems etc.

Best guess... mortality rate will transpire to be about 0.4% but thats a fairly wild guess by me. ie: deaths / pop who could reasonably have been expected to have caught it during the pandemic.

Harry Palmr

Deleted User wrote: »

Id be surprised if it tops 1,200 by october

They were estimating 800 to 1000 for ireland,which is horrendous enough.......unless they get overrun to state,where they cant treat any.cases

This one has aged badly unfortunately but you're in good company

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-infection-peak-may-have-passed-but-death-toll-could-hit-400-by-may-report-forecasts-1.4223259

Peak resource use of hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds here passed on April 4th, while peak deaths passed on April 6th, according to the data published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which is based at the University of Washington in the US./

/A total of 401 deaths are forecast in Ireland by the start of May but none thereafter to August 4th, the end of the modelling period, according to the research.

This crowd are the one I referred to in my post that is replied to below.

threeball wrote: »

Why on earth would we have 100 days of 30 deaths when we only had one or two days with that so far and we're nearing the peak. That makes zero sense. Somewhere between 500 and 750 is more realistic.

I was on my phone so wasn't going to do a long post, obviously it's a very crude summary of 3000

wakka12

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Taking the numbers to the closest thousand (roughly)

Fatalities - 1,000
Cases - 20,000

Doesn't this mean the mortality rate of it in Ireland stands at 5%?

No it just means we are probably missing at least 4/5 of infections!

ShineOn7

https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1255535391307898880

ShineOn7

Reddit daily digest

___________________________


New cases: 376
Total cases: 20,253
New deaths: 36
Total deaths: 1,190
Healthcare workers: 5568
Total clusters: 608


Of 946 LAB CONFIRMED Deaths

• 452 hospitalised
• 845 with underlying health conditions
• 504 male
• 442 female
• Median age: 83

Of 356 in ICU

• Underlying condition in 295
• Currently: 129
• Discharged: 173
• Deaths: 54

Residential Homes (includes nursing homes)

• All residential clusters: 392
• Total cases: 4363
• Admitted to hospital: 340
• Died: 697

Just Nursing Homes

• Nursing home clusters: 219
• Total cases: 3457
• Admitted to hospital: 228
• Died: 593

Ireland remains one of the few countries globally who has collected and officially reported data from long term residential care settings from the start of the pandemic.

ShineOn7

A third of patients admitted to hospital in the UK with Covid-19 are dying, according to a major study whose authors said the observed death rates put the illness on a par with Ebola.


The study tracked the outcomes of nearly 17,000 patients – around one-third of all those admitted to hospital in the UK – and found that 33% had died, 49% were discharged and 17% were still receiving treatment after two weeks

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/29/study-finds-a-third-of-uk-covid-19-patients-taken-to-hospital-are-dying

ShineOn7

Very detailed stats from the Reddit user today

_____________________________

New Cases: 359
Total Cases: 20612
New Death: 43
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1232

• Deaths: 1011 lab confirmed
• Hospitalised + died in hospital: 463 46%
• Died in ICU: 57 6%
• Underlying conditions: 878 87%
• Median age: 83
• Mean age: 81

Of 362 in ICU

• Remain in hospital: 123 34%
• Discharged: 182 50%
• Died: 57 15.80%
• Underlying conditions: 302 84%
• Median Age: 60
• Currently in ICU (as of today): 106

As of Tuesday 28th

• Cases: 20111
• In Hospital: 2706 13.50%
• Total In ICU: 360 1.80%
• Median Age: 49
• Healthcare workers: 28%

Healthcare workers

• 5627 healthcare workers infected at some points
• 212 3.7% hospitalised
• 34 in ICU
• 5 deaths 0.10%
• Median age 41
• 73% female

Breakdown:

• 34% nurses
• 24% Allied
• 24% HCA
• 7% doctors
• 1% doctors

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)

• Clusters: 371 - 2 up from yesterday
• Total Cases: 4590 - Increase of 227
• Total Deaths: 735 - 59.70%
• Hospitalised: 348 - 7.60%
• Place of death 123 of 735 occurred in acute hospital environment.

Nursing Homes

• Clusters: 219
• Total Cases: 3679 - Increase of 220 from yesterday
• Total Deaths: 630 - 51.10%
• Hospitalised: 233 - 5%
• Place of death 99 of 630 occurred in acute hospital environment.

Modelling with Philip Nolan

• Run up to 13th March when 1st social distancing measures were implemented- New cases confirmed each day (+German figures): 20-40 cases per day, 40 people hospitalised
• Schools closed, moderate social distancing implemented - run up to end of March - New cases confirmed each day (+German): 450 new cases per day, 450 roughly hospitalised
• 28th March - stronger measures, stay at home - clearly choked off transmission of disease promptly. Confirmed cases plateau'ed and has remained between 400-600 - almost 900 people in hospital
• Monday 22nd to Friday 28th March - we went from 150 to 600 new cases a day, 170 to 450 people in hospital, 50 people in ICU to 80 in ICU.
• Peak of ICU cases - 160
  Measures have had significant impact on transmission of the disease in community, not on hospitalisations
• Backdating of tests from when they were taken (not confirmed)
• Very sharp increase in general population up until 28th March, then a very rapid decline. Very marked reduction in new cases detected in general public
  Healthcare workers - catch disease by being exposed to sick people. It is detected later in healthcare workers. Number of cases has been stable across April, but indiciations that it is now dropping
  Residential care - disease entered later than it appeared in general population. Over the last week, there is an increase in detection due to targeted testing. Detecting several hundred cases.
  Significiant prevalence of incidence of disease in population
• Overall growth rate of the disease: Very close to 0 since the beginning of April
• Three components to look at when making decisions - general, healthcare, residential

Model

• Time dependent reproduction numbers - looks back at all the tests from when the swabs was taken. Started up around 5. Very soon after 28th March it came comfortably under 1. R0 = 0.8
• Second way is a model - cases, deaths, timing of various social distancing measures. Before social distancing: 3.6. Current estimation of 0.5
• Estimate is somewhere between 0.5 and 0.8,
• Both models confident that reproductive rate is below 1
• More data allows us to see better how moderate measures affected the R0 - 1.7 - not that great, can't go back to that
• 730 now in hospital
• 100 admissions per day to hospital was peak, now below 40.
• 160 cases in ICU was the peak number
• 14-15 peak admitted per day
• Now around 4 admitted to ICU per day.

Questions

• Decision would go 'down to wire' - has your mind been made up? People will be disappointed.

Getting closer to making mind up, NPHET meeting tomorrow to make their assessment and give advice to the government. If we look at all the measures that we think are important, we think that the case hasn't arisen yet to allow us to lift the restrictions. Even though we've seen further improvement in every measure. We need to get down to a lower baseline. The number of cases identified in the public everyday is still too high in the population for general - roughly the same as early March.

• Why were Sweden's hospitalised not overrun? Is our model wrong?

Population generally social distances, and now strongly using social distancing and hygiene. Don't think that our model is wrong. Difference between plotting data and modelling. If you are in a position where a substantial amount if disease is seeded in population and spreading rapidly, simple social distancing measures will not stop the disease, as it is accelerating very rapidly. This is what was happening here. Putting in strict measures reduced that acceleration. Different countries have different strategies - Sweden had smaller numbers at the beginning than we did. We need to watch them carefully over the next few weeks, just like how we're watching other countries. Short-term outcomes show us something - need time to tell whether or not Strategy A was better than Strategy B. Our strategy has worked in slowing the disease. Definitely too early to tell which strategies were right or wrong, from current data.

• Is there not a danger with the roadmap, that people may go ahead of the roadmap?

Roadmap is to give sense of direction, and managing the task of this with the Irish people. This has worked heretofore where we have managed to control the disease to where it is now. We've done a significant job as a population. NPHET's job is to help advise government on a plan and approach. Want measures to limit the risk to yourself, your family, and transmission to others in public. Have high degree of confidence that we will get the right kind of response from the public. Interval of at least 3 weeks between each step on the roadmap to make sure that we are still where we need to be, and that people aren't jumping in the gun at the roadmap stages.

• German supermarkets have long queues for things like garden chairs etc. Things that garden centres and hardware stores would have held. What is your opinion on these kinds of shops selling this stock?

Not going to criticise any shop for what it sells. High degree of compliance, list set out. Roadmap will be set out on shops which can open/stay closed. People, in good faith, to co-operate with.

• Very sharp rise in March due to Italians coming over?

No, people were still acting normal, in intimate ways - hugging, kissings. There was free spread of the disease at this time. This rapidly spread the disease and it all came to a head. People need to be very cautious in the future in regards to respiratory etiquette. We need to find some intermediate way of living between where we are now, and how we acted around March 13th. Market research shows that population are concerned that we do this in a careful and stepwise way in lifting restrictions.

IAMAMORON

ShineOn7 wrote: »

• German supermarkets have long queues for things like garden chairs etc. Things that garden centres and hardware stores would have held. What is your opinion on these kinds of shops selling this stock?

Not going to criticise any shop for what it sells. High degree of compliance, list set out. Roadmap will be set out on shops which can open/stay closed. People, in good faith, to co-operate with.

• Very sharp rise in March due to Italians coming over?

No, people were still acting normal, in intimate ways - hugging, kissings. There was free spread of the disease at this time. This rapidly spread the disease and it all came to a head. People need to be very cautious in the future in regards to respiratory etiquette. We need to find some intermediate way of living between where we are now, and how we acted around March 13th. Market research shows that population are concerned that we do this in a careful and stepwise way in lifting restrictions.

It is astonishing that this type of question is even allowed? Obviously a journalist fishing hard? I mean depending on the answer there you could get an entire double pager blaming Bord Failte and the gubberment for not shutting the airport. Journalists are such shít stirrers, they really are.

I mean trying to ban the sale of garden furniture? Who gets the notions. honestly?

ShineOn7

Anyone got a link to Leo's speech/the briefing from earlier?

Cupatae

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Anyone got a link to Leo's speech/the briefing from earlier?

ShineOn7

Fcuking hell. 7%?



World Statistics:-

Total Cases

Total Deaths

Recoveries

Active Caes

Fatality rate

Recovery rate

World Population %

3,456,461

243,034

1,102,564

2,110,863

7.0%

31.90%

0.044%Source: Worldmeters, based on reported numbers @ 19.40.