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The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland
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Some new "maths of this all" figures for Ireland were released yesterday:
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136475-covid19-coronavirus-industry/There are now 598,000 people dependent on the Covid-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment
The Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS), with more than 427,000 workers having their wages subsidised under the scheme.
These figures come on top of around 205,000 people who were already on the Live Register at the end of March.
Thats 1,230,000 people - out of the Irish workforce of 2.4 million - on payment supports. And its going up by thousands every week. And of the remaining 1,170,000 workers approx 350,000 are public servants.
All of which means we're down to about 820,000 private sector workers in this country, whos taxes now have to support the other 4.2 million Irish people.
I don't think anyone needs to be an economist to understand that the maths of this are very, very bad. There are going to be massive tax increases incoming very soon to pay for this lockdown.0 -
Today's Reddit/Gov.ie data recap
I'm trying to limit time in listening to radio news on it to just the 6pm bulliten and wasn't happy to hear as high a number of 37 today. I thought we'd start hitting 20 and below going forward
It does make you worry when the restrictions are lifted
All data below the line credit to the Reddit poster who combines Gov.ie data with the briefings
_______________________________
New Cases: 265
Total Cases: 22248
New Death: 37
Total Deaths: 1375
Deaths- Deaths: 1375
- Hospitalised + died in hospital: 550 --> 40%
- Died in ICU: 66 --> 4.8%
- Underlying conditions: 1176 --> 85.5%
- Median age: 84
- Mean age: 82
- Cases: 21908
- Hospitalised: 2878 --> 13.10%
- Total In ICU: 373 --> 1.70%
- Median Age: 49
- Healthcare workers: 6393 --> Increase of 100
- Currently in ICU: 86
- New admissions within last 24 hours: 2
- Clusters: 400 --> Increase of 6
- Total Cases: 5370 --> Increase of 196
- Total Deaths: 857
- Place of death: 147 of 857 occurred in acute hospital environment.
- Clusters: 232 --> Increase of 3
- Total Cases: 4268 --> Increase of 160
- Total Deaths: 740 --> 53.80%
- Place of death 118 of 740 occurred in acute hospital environment.
Of the breakdown of 327 cases in ICU- Chronic heart disease:165 --> 50%
- Chronic respiratory disease: 76 --> 36.60%
- Diabetes: 74 --> 22.60%
- Asthma with medication: 34
- Cancer: 31
- BMI > 40: 53
- Chronic renal disease: 20
Recoveries
- In community: 15711
- Discharged from hospital: 1399
- Total: 17110
- Asked about a delay in smear tests - women being turned away, one woman was given one due to previous history, but told it would take 20 weeks for results. Is this a GP issue, or a department issue?
- How many people trained in contact tracing? Only 40 people were contact tracing yesterday
- In broad terms, there isn't a greater number of deaths in communities and nursing homes than have been reported. Our reporting on deaths is slightly longer than we want, because people need to go into offices to register the death. There are now online means to register deaths online, which is quick and easy to do
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Some new "maths of this all" figures for Ireland were released yesterday:
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136475-covid19-coronavirus-industry/
Thats 1,230,000 people - out of the Irish workforce of 2.4 million - on payment supports. And its going up by thousands every week. And of the remaining 1,170,000 workers approx 350,000 are public servants.
All of which means we're down to about 820,000 private sector workers in this country, whos taxes now have to support the other 4.2 million Irish people.
I don't think anyone needs to be an economist to understand that the maths of this are very, very bad. There are going to be massive tax increases incoming very soon to pay for this lockdown.
Public sectors workers also pay tax on earnings
And on every purchase made0 -
Wow! That is really interesting. Though there are some debunked studies included in the table such as both the Santa Clara study and LA studies which used self selected candidates
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-antibody-studies-california-stanford0 -
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Some new "maths of this all" figures for Ireland were released yesterday:
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136475-covid19-coronavirus-industry/
Thats 1,230,000 people - out of the Irish workforce of 2.4 million - on payment supports. And its going up by thousands every week. And of the remaining 1,170,000 workers approx 350,000 are public servants.
All of which means we're down to about 820,000 private sector workers in this country, whos taxes now have to support the other 4.2 million Irish people.
I don't think anyone needs to be an economist to understand that the maths of this are very, very bad. There are going to be massive tax increases incoming very soon to pay for this lockdown.
There's several "the economy!" and "lift the restrictions !!1!" type threads that I think would better suit your thoughts
This thread has been very civilized compared to others and I don't think it needs this kind of input0 -
Wow! That is shocking.
I wouldn't say shocking, it's good news I think? Let's say it's more than that to give them margin of error of the two studies you mentioned. A rate of 0.3/0.4 is still better than the 2% been talked about at one stage
Can anyone remind me what rate a normal flu is? I think it's 0.1, or is it 0.01?0 -
I wouldn't say shocking, it's good news I think? Let's say it's more than that to give them margin of error of the two studies you mentioned. A rate of 0.3/0.4 is still better than the 2% been talked about at one stage
Can anyone remind me what rate a normal flu is? I think it's 0.1, or is it 0.01?
Of course its good news! And its 0.1% I believe0 -
Some new "maths of this all" figures for Ireland were released yesterday:
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136475-covid19-coronavirus-industry/
Thats 1,230,000 people - out of the Irish workforce of 2.4 million - on payment supports. And its going up by thousands every week. And of the remaining 1,170,000 workers approx 350,000 are public servants.
All of which means we're down to about 820,000 private sector workers in this country, whos taxes now have to support the other 4.2 million Irish people.
I don't think anyone needs to be an economist to understand that the maths of this are very, very bad. There are going to be massive tax increases incoming very soon to pay for this lockdown.
This is absolutely shocking. How can Pascal say that 2021 is going to be a quick bounce back?0 -
This is absolutely shocking. How can Pascal say that 2021 is going to be a quick bounce back?
Hes lying. Thats pretty much it.
Every week this lockdown goes on the economic forecasts get worse, and every week his predictions get a little darker. First it was a very quick "V" shaped recovery this summer, then a "U" shaped recovery this year, and now watch as it gradually turns into an "L" shaped recovery that will take years to recover from.
Unemployment in the worst month of the 2008 recession was 16%, for comparison. And we can all remember the decade it took to recover fully from that.0 -
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From Reddit/Gov.ie/news briefings. A huge amount of data today
____________________________
New Cases: 137
Total Cases: 22385
New Death: 29
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1403
Deaths- Deaths: 1403
- Hospitalised + died in hospital: ??
- Died in ICU: 69 5%
- Underlying conditions: 1212 86%
- Median age: 84
- Mean age: 82
- Cases: 22186
- Hospitalised: 2891 13.00%
- Total In ICU: 376 1.70%
- Median Age: 49
- Remain in ICU: 76 No new admissions
- Clusters: 406 Increase of 6
- Total Cases: 5485 Increase of 115
- Total Deaths: 880 62.70%
- Hospitalised: 389 7.10%
- Place of death 151 of 880 occurred in acute hospital environment.
- Clusters: 235 Increase of 3
- Total Cases: 4309 Increase of 41
- Total Deaths: 761 54.20%
- Hospitalised: 265 5%
- Place of death 123 of 761 occurred in acute hospital environment.
- Cases: 6473 Increase of 398 over previous 7 dayss
- Deaths: 5
- Hospitalised: 239 3.70% 38 ICU
- ICU: 38
- Nurses: 2140 33%
- Allied Healthcare: 1506 23%
- Healthcare assistant: 1617 25%
- Doctors: 422 6.5%
Porters: 74 1.1%
- Significant reduction in numbers of people in hospital, and hospital admissions
- Last week over 700 people in hospital, 40 admissions a day.
- 614 people this week, 20 or fewer new admissions per day
- ICU - average number of people in ICU each day is falling
- Peaked at 140 at the height
- 100 last week
- 76 as of this morning
- Average number of people with Covid 19 admitted each day - last week 4-5 admitted each day. Now fewer than 2 each day.
- Day on day growth rate - similar number of cases each day to the proceeding days
- Looking at the new cases over the past week its falling close to 10% per day
- Today's number is the lowest in quite some time
- Reproduction number - number of people infected by any one case
- Using latest data up to yesterday, we have 3 estimates
- SEIR inferred mode: 0.54, uncertainity of .34-.71
- Statistical method, looking back on positive deaths on date they were taken: 0.6
- Imperial College London, adapted to Irish context: 0.53, but more confident of this value than we were last week
- Confident reproduction number is between 0.5 and 0.6
- Reproductive numbers
- Late Feb-Early March: 5-6
- Before any public health measures taken: 3.7
- Closure of schools, pubs, WFH: 1.6
- Since 28th March: 0.5
- We are not aiming for any one number, we are aiming for suppression.
- If on 5th May, if we had a reproductive number of 1.6, we would be experiencing 1000 cases a day within three weeks.
- This emphasises the point that we have had great success up until now, and need to find a way to keep the virus at a very low level for weeks to come
QUESTIONS
What's the hospital scene like? Empty beds? Staff without things to do?- A few weeks ago we had 2200 empty beds, now at around 1300
- A&E visitations are increasing again
- Private hospital capacity is 50% occupied, and that is increasing. Now making productive use of this capacity to treat cancer patients, urgent surgeries. Plans in place to make optimal use of the private and public capacity
- Have had a number of locations that have had experienced significant increases in deaths
- Clear from work being done in prioritising the testing, that we have slowed the progression the number of places reporting new infections, and a slowdown of the spread
- As we see a reduction in our cases, measures in airport will become more important.
- Compliance/behaviours - want to look at hard information in relation to this
- Specific focus will be given to areas where there has been a challenge experienced - meat factories, detention centres. Want to see if we can add something to the knowledge we have
- Number of trends to inspire optimism. Not where we would like to be still, this is under continuous assessment. Formal decision on 18th May will be decided at the end of next week - maybe Thursday
- On the route for the roadmap to progress as normal
- Public health guidelines on social distancing and length of time are clear
- All of these matters are under consideration by DoE
- It is up to the department of education
- Preference as a doctor? Assessment needs to be made. Regardless of the sector, the advice is to follow the guidelines. Colleagues in the DoE will assess the ability for exams to go ahead
- Yes, need arrangements to increase the amount of activity in hospitals.
- Previously we were not recommended for health services to go ahead, however we are not recommended that this go ahead
- Message that has been sent out for a significant number of time has always been to go hospital if you had symptoms of concern, like heart attacks etc., and to still attend GP
- Hospitals know how to prevent you from getting the disease in the hospital
- Over the course of the last number of days, work in re-introducing the less urgent care in a planned way. This will lead to an increase in activity. We know people keeping away from fear, and the HSE pausing certain activities.
- Has been correspondance with vintners, correspondance will be returned to them
- Don't want every sector to contact them, in respect to their sectoral interest
- Public health advice is straight forward and easy to understand, and sectors need to apply their own measures and plans because they know their own sector the best
- Public understanding and following the public health advice very well. Asking organisations to take these into account
- No direct evidence of this
- Seen continuing challenge in workplaces, and workplaces generally have a younger population
- Approx. 80-100 cases each day under 65, but that has reduced today
- Constantly under review
- Questions with colleagues in relation to some workplaces, such as meat factories, to install measures
- Young is anyone under 65.
- He has the most up to date numbers.
- Will be considered and discussed at tomorrows meeting
- Update tomorrow
- Testing and responses capacity to be considered at NPHET
- Don't have that report at the moment
- Looking at that information in terms of turnaround
- Should have those numbers tomorrow
- All of these numbers will play into national plan (page 14 of roadmap?), that will be brought to government to allow decisions for what recommendations can be lifted
- These numbers can be made available at the briefings, if that is the information that people want
- Contact tracing is not just a simple process of calling someone up and having an interview - can be much more complex
- Can involve going into a factory, the implications in the community around that factory, healthcare workers and occupational teams
- Contact tracing teams have been augmeneted by new contact tracers
- Simple hurdles had to have been overcome - phone numbers on samples and forms. Some positive cases were not answering phone etc
- Realisation early on that some of the IT systems in place were not as robust as they needed to be. Time and expertise has gone into this to improve the IT system that is used when contact tracing
- No one major issue, just aligning lots of expertise and experience
- Acknowledge that they're not fully there, but seen significant improvement
- IT system being used didn’t even exist 2 months ago
- Yes, the illness played to your death
- If there is a lab confirmation, the death will always be reported as Covid 19
- If you have Covid 19 and die, it is recored, even if there is no lab confirmation - Doctors decision
- This is now in line with the ECDC recommendation, which is in line with the WHO
- Not many countries in Europe that can be confident that they are reporting probable and suspect cases, and also hospitalised and community deaths. We are one of these
- We are following a very broad definition of very broad Covid mortality, and we have a very high level of testing. High percentrage of deaths that occur in nursing homes have been tested actively in the last 2-3 weeks. Undercovered an impact of the disease that many countries may not have.
- We do not have these figures yet
- Many countries like ourselves will be looking at that, by collecting the information through the public health system
- Some genetic work has shown that it was present in some countries earlier that first reported
- We don't believe we had infection at any singificant level - sporadic cases if it was present
- Index of suspicion was asked to be raised in hospitals, doctors etc
- Our flu season was over when Covid reached us
- We did a quantity of testing over February, which allowed us to see that our public advice was being followed
- Almost 400 samples tested before the first confirmed sample
- We would have had a higher rate of positivity at the time we confirmed our first case - however positivity rate was low - 3-4% at this time
- We don't think there were 30 suspected deaths. May have had similar symptoms.
- Not a group of 30 deaths attributal before the first lab confirmed death
- If we arrive at a point where it is right to lift restrictions sooner than the roadmap, we certainly will
- Mortality is only one thing that plays into that
- All factors that they think are important will be considered
- Concerned about public health overall, and Covid, not just Covid
- Haven't seen an increase in secondary deaths from not receiving medical care in nursing homes
- In community, if people are not attending GPs or A&E due to fear, this would be a concern
- Measures in place to pick this up and detect that - so called excess mortality allows us to see that - the registration of deaths
- Registration of deaths isn't happening at the same rate it was before Covid, it is now slower. Encouraging people to register deaths as soon as possible, as it allows for data to be analysed to calculate excess mortality.
Study from East Anglia shows that social distancing measures make more difference than lockdown measures. Have you looked at reduction in reproduction rate after measures in mid-March, compared to the ones at the end of March?- Social distancing, hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette are the best
- We saw closing schools, WFH had a huge impact on the reproductive number of the virus.
- These measures alone would not have been good enough to suppress a rapidly growing rate of transmission
- Much stronger social distancing measures were needed to get the reproductive number under 1
- This prevented excess illness, deaths and ensured the healthcare system could cope
- Shows us that if we have an outbreak in the future, that we know how to and can control it
- Everyone in Ireland has gotten better at social distancing and handwashing, giving hope that we can retain a reproductive number under 1 without strict measures in place
- ICU admission rates in Sweden have been approximately double of what we have had here
- Really difficult to compare disease between countries. You CANNOT just look at rates, because each country has different density etc.
- The number of people admitted into ICU in the first week showed us that the disease was spreading incredibly quickly. Comparing this same week to Sweden, they had less ICU cases and less positive tests. This shows us that they were managing a less severe disease at this time
- If measures in 28th March were more than necessary, we would have been a massive drop in cases immediately afterwards, which we did not see. Measures implemented were exactly what we needed.
- No, because recorded at different times. However, majority of 137 were in residential care settings
- Yes, by and large most cases are occurring in residential care settings and in healthcare workers, BUT
- We have been prioritising testing in these areas
- Doesn't necessarily mean there are more cases hidden - apart from the ones being focused on: meat factories, direct provision
- We have driven up the testing within the last week, but positivity is for the last week is 3.7%, so not too worried that there may potentially be thousands of cases in the community not being picked up on
- Overall positivity is approximately 10%
- Yes
- Can be considered - know there aren't many amenities nearby
- Very difficult to have guidelines for each specific rural area
- Hoping to ease these restrictions
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Interesting stats for healthy/working population
6500 health workers positive
5 deaths
0.08% death rate
99.92% chance of survival
Still 5 deaths too many and 38 in ICU0 -
Interesting stats for healthy/working population
6500 health workers positive
5 deaths
0.08% death rate
99.92% chance of survival
Still 5 deaths too many and 38 in ICU
Is 6,500 really a big enough pool to come to that conclusion though? It feels it needs to be at least 10 times that number for accurate data0 -
Is 6,500 really a big enough pool to come to that conclusion though? It feels it needs to be at least 10 times that number for accurate data
Maybe not, seems a good sample size to me, I wouldn't know.
You can do alot with stats I suppose.
Being a health care worker in Ireland you've a 1 in 1500 chance of dieing of covid19 at this moment and a 1 in 3000 chance of being struck by lightning in your lifetime
Data is dangerous0 -
0.02806% That is if that's correct is the percentage so far of the population that the virus has killed in Ireland,
I am quite sure that's right for that and for the amount of cases it is 0.4477 per cent or 0.45 per cent if you want to round it up.
The UK for cases was around 0.49 per cent when I done it last but could be higher or lower now.
I am not sure what UK death number is now but there percentage to population ratio was higher.
I was working it out the other night the percentage of deaths compared to the population and compared to the UK we are doing better but while it might not look like a lot in percentage terms we have to remember that this is over a very short period of time and that's why its actually very bad. If it was for a whole year that would not be as bad must of them deaths have happened in about a month and a half. Each death is still one too many do and very very sad for the family's affected. I think if we had of acted earlier and closed the country 2 weeks or even a week earlier some of them people could still be alive. I was saying it at the time and even said it to a local Business B&B owner who was not overly impressed by the thought of it. We could have been getting ready to open the country back up again now.
What we have to remember do is that each one of them deaths is a person that should still be alive and its very easy for that to get forgotten about with all these statistics and numbers. Each one of them had family that cared about them and loved them and that family is know affected too.
It could be 2 years before a vaccine is readily available for everyone so we have a long way to go yet.Live long and Prosper
Peace and long life.
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Anyone good with maths?
We had 700 deaths or so at our peak in Mid April, 77 deaths in a day
With a death rate of 0.5% we had 140,000 cases at that point
When did it start here if virus had an RO of 2-2.5?
Or what would be the RO if it started in December as Leo is suggesting?0 -
Maybe not, seems a good sample size to me, I wouldn't know.
You can do alot with stats I suppose.
Being a health care worker in Ireland you've a 1 in 1500 chance of dieing of covid19 at this moment and a 1 in 3000 chance of being struck by lightning in your lifetime
Data is dangerous
This isn’t correct. You have a 1 in 3,000 chance of being struck by lightning in your lifetime - approximately 80 years - and to use your figure a 1 in 1500 chance of dieing of COVID, if a health care worker in Ireland, in the last two months.
The 1 in 1500 lifetime figure would only be correct if the disease disappeared tomorrow, which it won’t.
Mortality rates need to be interpreted with respect to length and type of exposure when determining the risk a given period of time of exposure results in.
So COVID causes far greater rates of death per month of exposure as a healthcare worker than lightning does. Obviously. Bottom line the raw figure above which makes it seem twice as deadly as lightning vastly underrepresents the risk to healthcare workers.
Additionally this doesn’t account for long-term sequelae which will likely result in reductions in longevity for a significant portion of those who catch it and survive. What portion? Too early to tell but it won’t be zero.0 -
Maybe not, seems a good sample size to me, I wouldn't know.
You can do alot with stats I suppose.
Being a health care worker in Ireland you've a 1 in 1500 chance of dieing of covid19 at this moment and a 1 in 3000 chance of being struck by lightning in your lifetime
Data is dangerous
What I took from that is the chances of being struck by lightning are absurdly high more than anything else!0 -
422 deaths in the North with 3984 cases. That is quite high for the small size and population up there. That means there is a 10.59% chance you could die from it up there.
Actually that's only hospital deaths so with other deaths it is 516 deaths so its worse even.Live long and Prosper
Peace and long life.
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Anyone good with maths?
We had 700 deaths or so at our peak in Mid April, 77 deaths in a day
With a death rate of 0.5% we had 140,000 cases at that point
When did it start here if virus had an RO of 2-2.5?
Or what would be the RO if it started in December as Leo is suggesting?
Where are you? What is it you want to Know exactly?Live long and Prosper
Peace and long life.
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422 deaths in the North with 3984 cases. That is quite high for the small size and population up there. That means there is a 10.59% chance you could die from it up there.
Actually that's only hospital deaths so with other deaths it is 516 deaths so its worse even.
No, that means if you're tested and confirmed positive theres a 10.59% chance of death. But the vast majority of people who get this virus aren't being tested, because they're either completely asymptomatic or only have mild cold-like symptoms.
All the studies that actually test a random section of the population, or use a controlled environment and test everyone within it, show a combined infection fatality rate of approx 0.28%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABchNlgG8*0znT152OBcjvTysrbg4e3w#gid=0
And even thats obviously heavily weighted towards the older/at risk population - the odds of death go down massively, even from that low number, for people under 50.0 -
Today's Reddit/Gov.ie/briefing transcribings
I wasn't aware we had people dying of this in Ireland under the age of 30, let alone 20 (see red text at the end)
Not sure why it formatted this way below but I can't edit
_________________________
New Cases: 156
Total Cases: 22541
New Deaths: 27
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1429
Breakdown of deaths- Deaths: 1429
- Hospitalised + died in hospital: 571 40.0%
- Died in ICU: 69 4.8%
- Underlying conditions: 1232 86.0%
- Median age: 84
- Mean age: 82
- Cases: 22301
- Hospitalised: 2915 13.1
- Total In ICU: 73 1.70%
- Median Age: 49
- Healthcare workers: 6586 > Increase of 88
- Remain in ICU: 74
- Admitted in last 24 hours: 2
- Clusters: 412 > Increase of 6
- Total Cases: 5594 > Increase of 109
- Total Deaths: 899
- Hospitalised: 406
- Place of death 156 occurred in acute hospital environment.
- Clusters: 238 > Increase of 3
- Total Cases: 4393 > Increase of 84
- Total Deaths: 777
- Hospitalised: 281
- Place of death 128 occurred in acute hospital environment.
Age Cases Deaths
< 4 120 0
4-9 108 0
10-14 145 0
15-19 357 <5
20-24 122 <5
25-29 1719 <5
30-34 1970 <5
35-39 1944 6
40-44 1981 5
45-49 2171 9
50-54 1949 13
55-59 1707 30
60-64 1262 25
65-69 771 69
70-74 910 128
75-79 974 180
80-84 1241 304
85+ 2329 652
__________________________0 -
% breakdown of Covid mortalities for those 45 and over in Ireland of reported cases
- 45-49 : 1%
- 50-54 : 1%
- 55-59 : 2%
- 60-64 : 2%
- 65-69 : 5%
- 70-74 : 9%
- 75-79 : 13%
- 80-84 : 21%
- 85+ : 46%
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Our ICU teams must be doing something otherworldly, the survival rates are about 77% from ICU. That's a massive difference to other places where papers are being put in pre-print for achieving 60% survival rates.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089318v1
Do we know what our teams are doing differently than anywhere else? If it's all down to care approach they should publish their protocols, it could save thousands of lives all over the worlde en before any special drugs are deployed.0 -
Cross posted from another thread:
On a conservative guess that 1 in 10 of actual cases have been detected (probably more like 1 in 40/50 in reality) even for the 55-65 y/o group the virus has a mortality rate of 55 from 30,000
That's a mortality rate of 0.18% amongst 55-65 Year olds.
If you take the figure on face value and assume that every single 55-65 year old who has had the disease has been tested, then the mortality rate for that age group is still only 1.8%
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What I took from that is the chances of being struck by lightning are absurdly high more than anything else!
Or stats/data can be misleading, depending on what message you want.
Not sure if I'm deserving a /whoosh but I'll be looking at the sky more often now 😉
Edit: just read the previous posts so /whoosh 😂0 -
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% breakdown of Covid mortalities for those 45 and over in Ireland
- 45-49 : 1%
- 50-54 : 1%
- 55-59 : 2%
- 60-64 : 2%
- 65-69 : 5%
- 70-74 : 9%
- 75-79 : 13%
- 80-84 : 21%
- 85+ : 46%
Those are only reported cases.
Since only certain people are being tested at present (I for example had a test that was cancelled and I don't fit into the category now eligible to be tested)...there must be at least 10 x more that had it and weren't tested.
The only accurate category is surely 80% as nursing homes etc are being target tested.
I'm concluding that in under 70's the mortality rate is something between 0.1 and 0.5% depending on age groups; likely a lot less again.0 -
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