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The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland
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Empahsis on a degree. It may not be even but it doesnt spread unnoticed for 3 months and then bam kill 150 thousand elderly people in a month
Anyway, it is a pointless discussion. His theory is wrong. Only 4-5% of Europeans have antibodies, there was no epidemic before March.
Older people presenting with ILI and viral pneumonia in the middle of winter. Not sure how many ER doctors would have noticed something unusual there.0 -
Re: "80% of cases are mild"
The "mild illness" part isn't always that mild. There's a member of a business Facebook group I'm in where he and his wife are still recovering 7 weeks later
A friend of mine had the stay at home version of it and 3 weeks later his lungs still aren't 100%
A New York doctor was one of the 80% too and he published his experience online. I don't have the link to hand but it was nearly 2 months of what sounds like a horrendous experience, including times he felt like he was going to die
If anyone knows the one I'm talking maybe they could add it below0 -
Extremely transparent and Ireland in one sentence is an oxymoron.Aren't you discounting the fact that Ireland is extremely transparent about it's numbers compared to others? It was, last time I checked. one of only 4 countries out of over 180 that included nursing home numbers in it's overall counting
Like pretty much anything with stats, the numbers can be manipulated to suit the author
No, I'm not. Most countries calculate all deaths. The exceptions being the UK, Sweden, Italy and Spain. The UK is the worst just calculates only hospital deaths, Sweden excludes care home deaths, Spain and Italy include some care gone deaths but not all.
Conclusion - Irish result is poor given the fundamentals. The gov lost all trumps (island, periphery, low population, low density, forewarning) they had and are clueless.0 -
Today's numbers
New cases: 236
Total cases: 22,996
New deaths: 12
Total deaths: 1,458
As of Friday 8th May- Total cases: 22,671
- Median age: 49
- Hospitalised: 2,986
- ICU: 383
- Healthcare workers: 6,771 (Increase of 102 cases from yesterday)
- Clusters: 750 accounting for 8,149 cases
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Empahsis on a degree. It may not be even but it doesnt spread unnoticed for 3 months and then bam kill 150 thousand elderly people in a month
Anyway, it is a pointless discussion. His theory is wrong. Only 4-5% of Europeans have antibodies, there was no epidemic before March.
You assume that the virus is very contagious, maybe the r0 is much lower than originally thought. The calculations that gave high r figures were based on very incomplete data and there is every possibility that the conclusions drawn were wrong.
The virus was circulating in Europe for a minimum of a month to 6 weeks longer than originally thought. It went undetected and unnoticed in that time. That makes it likely that it spread slowly at the start before increasing more rapidly as it reached a point where it was coming into contact with more at risk (more susceptible) people.
The percentage testing positive would support this view. The percentage of people with symptoms testing positive should have been increasing rapidly if the virus really was spreading exponentially.
It would have been spreading at a faster rate than flu/other respiratory infections. So the percentage testing positive can't be a relatively constant percentage of those with symptoms if there really was exponential growth in the population.
How many elderly died from neglect, loneliness etc with a positive or assumed covid 19 infection is also worth considering. There has been major staffing issues in nursing homes across Europe. If large amounts of staff are self isolating or at home minding children, surely care suffers and a nursing home is going to say suspected covid 19 rather than died from neglect.0 -
Nonsense. These countries have various infestation and death rates - UK the highest, Sweden similar to Ireland, Germany 5 times less than Sweden or 15 times less than UK. But even in the UK the antibodies will be present only in single digit % of the population. Even if herd immunity with Sars-cov-2 was possible it would need hundreds of thousands of deaths in the UK.If you think about it, herd immunity is very close in places like in UK, Sweden, Germany with amount deaths they have
Now, herd immunity with the Sars-cov-2 won't exist anytime soon. Coronaviruses don't generate strong and long immune response. Common cold coronavirus 1-2 years max. Sars-cov-2 so far has been found to be generate insufficient antibodies in adults and even no antibodies in children. That's the reason why classic vaccines with attenuated virus or virus fragments don't work for Sars-cov-2, because the immune response is insufficient. Covid vaccines need Either strong adjuvant to generate a strong immune response but then you risk immune overreaction or autoimmune stuff. Or new types vaccines such as m-RNA, which is a completely new field and will take type to be proven safe.0 -
The model told us to do a thing or the results would be terrible.
So we did that thing.
And now the results arent terrible.
WHY DID THEY TELL US TO DO THAT THING?
Because any type of closure would work , it would work at keeping the regular flu at bay or any other infectious disease. It's not a measure of the model that restrictions worked.
I read the articles linked below yesterday on the UKs Model. I'll accept the website is biased and probably funded by a lobby .
It does however provide links to the claims made by 3rd parties, so I found it very well written in that regard.
It goes some way to explain why this Ferguson fella is miles off in his models in general.People will argue , in his defense, that models give different scenarios and the media always pick the worst one. Fair point.
But I happen to work in IT Projects with a heavy slant (mostly - gotta follow the work) on mathematical/actuarial work so I found this article and the follow up very interesting
https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/#comment-5338
follow - up
https://lockdownsceptics.org/second-analysis-of-fergusons-model/
tl;dr
whether the model is accurate or not. The standards used to produce it are shocking and indefensible from an IT audit standpoint.
Now what model are the Irish Government using ? Is it from academics with a similar failure is grasping the basics of decent development standard.
mental if it was...0 -
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He might provide a link to below too
Better tell Boris not to bother with antibody testing
McGiver knows the results already :P
Moderna candidate only last week jumped from P1 success to P 3. AstraZeneca/Jenner Institute will go phase 3 in Sept.
If interested in this stuff there's a vaccine tracker here
https://biorender.com/covid-vaccine-tracker
Apparently SARS-cov2 is a fairly "dumb" virus compared to a top of the class HIV. Others clever viruses like Ebola and Influenza are difficult to treat, but this coronavirus should be relatively straightforward. What's stopped other vaccine developments for coronaviruses, is the commercial viability. SARS1 disappeared before anyone needed it and most coronavirus illnesses up to now have been so mild, it's hardly realistic that people would go to the doctor for a shot when the chances of having the correct vaccine to hand is very low.
Great video that explains this by a guy who worked on SARS1 and HIV.
https://youtu.be/xUuLDLY1wMU0 -
He might provide a link to below too
Better tell Boris not to bother with antibody testing
McGiver knows the results already :P
Shineon7 posted a link to a number of serum studies across the world a few pages back. A test in London showed 9% infection rates in the city, very much in line with the infection rate in other highly urbanised hotspots such as Madrid.
Outside of cities, antibody tests in Europe show very low rates of infection of 1-3%
The number of Europeans who have had this virus is really relatively small considering the number of people who have died0 -
Moderna candidate only last week jumped from P1 success to P 3. AstraZeneca/Jenner Institute will go phase 3 in Sept.
If interested in this stuff there's a vaccine tracker here
https://biorender.com/covid-vaccine-tracker
Apparently SARS-cov2 is a fairly "dumb" virus compared to a top of the class HIV. Others clever viruses like Ebola and Influenza are difficult to treat, but this coronavirus should be relatively straightforward. What's stopped other vaccine developments for coronaviruses, is the commercial viability. SARS1 disappeared before anyone needed it and most coronavirus illnesses up to now have been so mild, it's hardly realistic that people would go to the doctor for a shot when the chances of having the correct vaccine to hand is very low.
Great video that explains this by a guy who worked on SARS1 and HIV.
https://youtu.be/xUuLDLY1wMU
Vaccine tracker looks good
One in stage iii/iv, not too long now0 -
Shineon7 posted a link to a number of serum studies across the world a few pages back. A test in London showed 9% infection rates in the city, very much in line with the infection rate in other highly urbanised hotspots such as Madrid.
Outside of cities, antibody tests in Europe show very low rates of infection of 1-3%
The number of Europeans who have had this virus is really relatively small considering the number of people who have died
What's important in looking those studies is the date of testing. With a seroconversion lag of about 15 days, those testing + would have been infected 2-3 weeks previously. The Geneva study shows the difference only a week makes; 3%-6%-10% over 3 consecutive weeks.0 -
What's important in looking those studies is the date of testing. With a seroconversion lag of about 15 days, those testing + would have been infected 2-3 weeks previously. The Geneva study shows the difference only a week makes; 3%-6%-10% over 3 consecutive weeks.
Yes true. But given that the a lot of the time afterwards was under lockdown condition, I would imagine the increase would not be as great as in preceeding weeks. But yes, it will certainly mean quite a different final figure will emerge0 -
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Just saw this interesting observation from Italy.
It seems bit of a stretch to think the virus is changing...
https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie_infettive/20_maggio_06/sars-cov-2-sta-davvero-perdendo-potenza-ecco-cosa-sappiamo-oggi-00402a12-8f71-11ea-bb7f-d3d655d2211a.shtml0 -
"For mild to asymptomatic cases IgG could be detected only after 6 weeks." Is that usual for antibodies to take long to ramp up?
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.08.085506v1.full.pdf+html
I think the current assays need work on the sensitivity side, specificity is almost there (apart from that one giving a signal on EBV, wtf?).
Even the moderate to severe case results are bit on the low sensitivity side.0 -
From Reddit/Gov.ie and daily briefing. I've highlighted in red something that stood out in terms of this thread's subject
_________________________
New Cases: 139
Total Cases: 23135
New Deaths: 15
Denotified: 6
Total Deaths: 1467
Breakdown of deaths- Deaths: 1467
- Hospitalised + died in hospital: 599 40%
- Died in ICU: 70 5%
- Underlying conditions: 1265 86%
- Median age: 84
- Mean age: 82
- Cases: 22894
- Hospitalised: 2998 13.00%
- Total In ICU: 383 1.70%
- Median Age: 49
- Healthcare workers: 6834 > Increase of 63
- Remain in ICU: 71
- New cases since yesterday: 2
- Clusters: 425 > Increase of 7
- Total Cases: 5779 > Increase of 72
- Total Deaths: 920 62.7% of total number of deaths
- Hospitalised: 428 7.40%
- Place of death: 168 occurred in acute hospital environment. -18.30%
- Clusters: 244 Increase of 3
- Total Cases: 4519 Increase of 50
- Total Deaths: 798 54.4% of total number of deaths
- Hospitalised: 301 5.10%
- Place of death: 140 occurred in acute hospital environment. -17.50%
As part of twice weekly market survey - worst ahead of us or happening now - 43% of people think the worst is behind us - this is small concern
What is your message to the people who think we're coming through the worst of it?
We've done a great job as a country of keeping the disease down and limiting the impact on public health and the HSE. If we get it wrong, we could see the reproductive number rising which is a big challenge that may be larger than the challenge we faced in recent months
Are our contact tracing and testing good enough for easing restrictions for easing restrictions on May 18th?- Seen significant improvement on turnaround times. The assessment on May 18th will be made at the end of the week. Positive that it will be a good recommendation
- Advice has always been to avoid unnecessary travel. This country welcomes tourists, just not now.
- No other country has done an exercise as comprehensive as us in the nursing home testing
- ECDC has advised to do this if capacity is availability
- Postivity number in these areas have been very low
- Still have plans to manage the disease in these areas
- This was given consideration as part of public health advice. 2 meters is what the advice is
- Patterns are giving encouragement, Tony is positive we can ease - hope and expectation is to give a positive recommendation
- We will respond to any untoward issues that arise
- Further consideration to travel
- Some consideration to the question of masks - they have given recommendation to government for use of non-medical masks in non healthcare settings
- Nature of restrictions to be eased
- This is already happening. Discussions, and HSE have already been tackling these issues
- Testing priorities will move from residential facilities to these kind of facilities. HSE and health teams are doing the plan for these areas, and testing has already begun
- Yesterdays number - over reporting in some of the case numbers.
- Small increase due to change in testing practice
- Between the two changes - broadening of clinical criteria, and removal of prioritisation criteria, has doubled the number of referrals. However we are nowhere close to reaching the total available capacity
Some of the papers said we were only catching 1 in 10 cases. Do you think this is true?
- We know we aren't catching/detecting all of the cases
- This is taken into account in the model
- Some of the literature suggests that the number of asymptomatic cases is much, much higher
- Will have a better idea of this when we have a properly validated seriology test. Serology studies done so far have been small, and data not reliable enough to make definitive conclusions
- Median time start to finish is 5 days - swab ordered until contact tracing commences - if following social distancing advice, then the number of contacts to be indentified during contact tracing is very low
- This is an improving figure
- Further automation of return of negative results should reduce this by 1 day - should see this by the end of the week
- Target is 3 days or below
- Trying to improve this method to get down to 3
- Journalist wants the numbers behind these days to be published on a regular basic
- Figures compiled on a daily basis, need to go back to the head of the department to get these figures
- If people react quicker, they won't have to wait in a GP for as long. Don't wait until tomorrow to see if they go away.
- Hospital labs are the quickest
- This is taken into account in our model
- Modelling is based on observed cases
- In nursing homes, people may present atypically to the rest of the public - a case may be reported as asymptomatic, but it may mean they don't have the 'traditional symptoms'. However we know far more about this now
- Relative high in percentage terms, but this is a falling number
- Community transfer - Transmission where you can't identify where the person got the virus is / relate it to a particular exposure
- Seen a large number of outbreaks
- Each outbreak is assessed and a risk assessment conducted.
- Testing strategy then decided for each particular scenario - case by case basis
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What are examples of places that are residential settings but not nursing homes? They are categorised separarately. I cant really think of any other type of institutions that they mean by that, 4 of the 7 new clusters are in such places0
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What are examples of places that are residential settings but not nursing homes? They are categorised separarately. I cant really think of any other type of institutions that they mean by that, 4 of the 7 new clusters are in such places
Transitional living units for people with disabilities.0 -
What are examples of places that are residential settings but not nursing homes? They are categorised separarately. I cant really think of any other type of institutions that they mean by that, 4 of the 7 new clusters are in such places
Transitional living units for people with disabilities as well as mental health facilities.0 -
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He might provide a link to below too
Better tell Boris not to bother with antibody testing
McGiver knows the results already :P
I'm basing it on Czech (0-1% seropositive) and other (few %) serological studies.
Czech serology - 0-1% range given, actual 0.4% +- error https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-czech-idUSKBN22I0PEOverall, it found 107 positive cases after testing 26,549 people, making it one of the largest studies in Europe.
Dutch serology - 3% https://www.tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/files/atoms/files/tb_jaap_van_dissel_1604_1.pdf0 -
I'm basing it on Czech (0-1% seropositive) and other (few %) serological studies.
Czech serology - 0-1% range given, actual 0.4% +- error https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-czech-idUSKBN22I0PE
Dutch serology - 3% https://www.tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/files/atoms/files/tb_jaap_van_dissel_1604_1.pdf
I think the Checz and S Korean results would really point towards mask wearing in public as being a very good thing to have when heading out and about.
It would massively reduce the number of pub-crawling super-spreaders infecting near a 100 people a night and potentially exposing thousands more.
S Korea had one slip-up on one weekend:
https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-environment/a/1515983.html
The alternative would be to keep pubs, clubs and bars closed until proper treatments are abundant.0 -
S Korea had one slip-up on one weekend:
https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-environment/a/1515983.html
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South Korea had everyone he was in contact with and had infected within 24 hours
Imagine our "system" here trying to do that0 -
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Today's numbers and government briefing
New Cases: 107
Total Cases: 23242
New Death: 24
Denotified: 3
Total Deaths: 1488
Deaths- Deaths: 1488
- Hospitalised + died in hospital: 607 > 41%
- Died in ICU: 72 > 5%
- Underlying conditions: 1276 > 86%
- Median age: 84
- Mean age: 82
- Remain in ICU: 71
- Cases: 23089
- Hospitalised: 3031 > 13.10%
- Total In ICU: 386 > 1.70%
- Median Age: 49
- Healthcare workers: 6906 - Increase of 72 cases
- Clusters: 428 > Increase of: 3
- Total Deaths: 937 > 63% of total deaths
- Hospitalised: 441 > 7.40%
- Place of death 171 occurred in acute hospital environment.
- Clusters: 245 > Increase of: 1
- Total Deaths: 815 > 54.80%
- Hospitalised: 312
- Place of death 143 occurred in acute hospital environment.
Prisons- Clusters: 5
- Cases: 18
- Hospitalised: 2
- Clusters: 3
- Cases: 21
- Hospitalised: 7
- Clusters: 5 - Increase of: 2
- Cases: 43 - Increase of: 19
- Hospitalised: 2
- Clusters: 12
- Cases: 149
- Hospitalised: 12
- Clusters: 12 - Increase of: 2
- Cases: 500 - Increase of: 133
- Hospitalised: 12
- Total tests completed: 258,808
- Tests completed in the last week: 44,047 > Last week we carried out 61707
- Number of positive tests: 1,466
- Positivity rate: 3.30%
- Lab capacity: 80,000 - on track to meet target of 105,000
- Testing process, turnaround time: 5 days median - has been shortened considerably. Sampling will be done within 1-1.5 days. From then to lab result takes 2-2.5 days. Contact tracing begins the same day the lab results come out
- Broadening of symptoms has not reached the capacity, so we may be able to broaden case definition
Lowest figure seen since end of March, is this encouraging to ease restrictions on 18th?- Yes, but still need to point out just over 70 people in ICU, and 600 in hospital. Will keep up monitoring of this, and will make final decision on THURSDAY. Reproductive number where we want it to be, level of detection in community has a positivty rate of around 3%
- That is not Tony saying today is the day. Easing of restrictions will be decided under a formal decision
- More information will be given on Thursday in relation to this.
- Don't want direct competition for higher grade PPE
- Will give info on nature of what a face covering is, how people can make them for themselves
- Will give guidance on how to properly use them - if worn incorrectly it can increase the rate of transmission. If you touch a mask, you can spread the infection to your hands etc. There is a right way to do it. It doesn't protect you fully from the virus, you still need to social distance and handwashing
- Types of settings where face coverings will be required
- Advice is to avoid all non-essential travel, don't expect that advice to change before July
- No single fundamental issue
- Still manual steps in the lab process, so errors may occur
- Transcription errors
- If we don't get mobile numbers for patients or GPs then there is a delay
- Hoping to automate these
- This new system was only put in 8 weeks ago, and different hospitals use different systems which don't all talk to each other
- No unique patient identified yet
- Time taken between when I first start to experience symptoms, and the time the person who I infect starts to experience symptoms
- This is 5 days for Ireland
- Internationally, this is 4-5 days.
- 6.5-7 days
- Internationally this is 6.9
- Generally there is always less virus transmission due to the summer as people spend more time outdoors
- This summer won't be a normal summer, behaviours around respiratory etiquette, hand washing and wearing of face coverings will need to be followed.
- New virus, lots unknown, so we don't know how it will behave during the summer
- In general, with a virus you have the host level, behavioural level and environmental level. Likely that in a hot summer the virus won't last long on surfaces, but that won't effect how it survives in people.
- Have seen an increase in deaths, and looking at a number of different things
- We think we've identified and accounted for excess mortality in nursing homes - it is higher than what it would have been otherwise
- We are starting to see some level of excess mortality overall in the community, but this is lagging.
- Lags because we get the information via the GRO, and they have up to 3 months to report deaths, which is quite a long time
- Not sure if people are notifying deaths in a timely manner, which is why deaths can now be registered online, to have up to the minute data on mortality. Understand that this is very difficult on the family.
- Part of a European trending on total excess mortality.
- We have been reporting at a much higher rate - more categories (nursing homes and residential facilities) and report both confirmed and probably
- Need to take these into account when doing comparable mortality reports.
- Seen in many countries in Europe, despite us recording all of these different categories, we still seem to have a smaller number of excess mortality than other bigger countries.
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Sweden Vs Ireland https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0511/1137763-what-can-we-learn-from-swedens-covid-19-icu-figures/
1. The numbers in the graph for Ireland come from the HSE’s Covid-19 Daily Operations Update of Acute Hospitals. The numbers for Sweden are published daily on the Swedish Intensive Care Registry. But since Sweden has twice the population that Ireland has, 10 million people versus 5m here, the Swedish ICU daily total has been divided in two so that the graph shows the numbers receiving critical care for Covid-19 per 5m people in both countries. (The image in the article shows, that when their ICU cases hare halved to allow for 5 million, they still have three times as many ICU cases as us).
2. Crude official figures show that Sweden, with double the population of Ireland, has 2.2 times the number of Covid-19 deaths, suggesting at first glance that Ireland and Sweden might be neck and neck in the international coronavirus league tables.
3. Sweden has been doing very poorly when it comes to Covid-19 in nursing homes, something that Anders Tegnell says he deeply regrets. Care home deaths in Sweden are not included in the official numbers but are in Ireland, where they account for about 60% of all Covid-19 deaths.
4. Sweden's numbers don't include "presumed or suspected" Covid-19 cases either. They are included in Ireland.
5. The level of admission to intensive care is a key international comparator for the underlying level of disease, accounting for about 2.4% of all diagnosed cases according to the European Centre for Disease Control.
6. In Sweden, most primary and secondary schools are still open. So too are restaurants, cafes and shops. Gatherings have to be greater than 50 people before they are banned. It is left to people themselves to voluntarily engage in social distancing, while working from home is a choice that is encouraged rather than enforced.- Google's weekly Covid-19 Community Mobility Report which uses big data gathered from mobile phone locations shows a 73% drop in activity in the retail and recreation sector in Ireland compared to a 9% drop in Sweden. Footfall in grocery and pharmacy sector is down 15% in Ireland, but up by 14% in Sweden. The use of public parks is down 27% in Ireland, but up a massive 44% in Sweden.
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Yeh Stockholm has reported around 2000 deaths by now, it's about 0.1% of the region population . Similar to death rates in other 'epicentres' New York , Lombardy, Madrid. And Stockholm is supposed to be some kind of miracle exception , the deaths just happened over a slightly longer period, the deaths are still remarkably large in number for the population0
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