The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

normanoffside

ShineOn7 wrote: »

So if I'm understanding this right:

• We are testing more of our Nursing Homes and Health workers per capita versus elsewhere?
• And we're not testing as many as the rest of our population compared to other countries?

5% is five times the mortality rate of some other countries

isn't every single nursing home resident and staff member being tested once a week as of a month ago?
I doubt it's like that everywhere and also the fact that we count suspected deaths or those who have only tested positive after death inflates our numbers.

My personal opinion is that we are probably still missing most of the community cases as they are generally asymptomatic or not very sick.

When we had peak infections (Mid to late March, early April) we must have missed tens of thousands of cases as it was incredibly difficult to get a test then even if you were quite sick.

ShineOn7

Any update on Ireland's R0 at today's briefing? I missed it

normanoffside

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Any update on Ireland's R0 at today's briefing? I missed it

No, they said yesterday 0.4-0.7 but cases too low to be accurate.

ShineOn7

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 6 June https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Boggles

Fúcking hell, that graph should come with a photosensitive epilepsy warning.

ShineOn7

Boggles wrote: »

Fúcking hell, that graph should come with a photosensitive epilepsy warning.

How close are you sitting to your laptop/tablet?

ShareShare

I'd like an explanation on why the daily deaths globally is going down even though the daily new cases is going up?

I was expecting the closed cases deaths to follow the daily new cases pattern. People die quickly, so i understand the the fast up tick of deaths, but if daily new cases keeps rising, then so should the deaths no?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

ShineOn7

ShareShare wrote: »

I'd like an explanation on why the daily deaths globally is going down event though the daily new cases is going up?

I'm guessing Brazil and UK's crazy numbers are skewing the overall worldwide stats. Last I heard the UK had 8,000 new cases a day still

ShineOn7

https://twitter.com/IrishDataViz/status/1269232283564871680












https://twitter.com/IrishDataViz/status/1269232283564871680/photo/1

ShineOn7

Put it in bold and shout it from the rooftops

New cases: 9
Denotified cases: 3
Total cases: 25,210
New deaths: 4
Total deaths: 1,683

Of 1,683 deaths

• Hospitalised: missed this number
• ICU: missed this number
• Underlying conditions: 1,529
• Median age: 84
• Mean age: 81 (decrease of 1 year)

ICU Stats

• Total: 411
• Current: 35
• New admissions: 1
• Confirmed cases in hospital: 122

As of midnight Saturday 26th

• Total cases: 25,198
• Hospitalised: 3,322
• ICU: 411
• Median age: 48
• Healthcare workers: 8,073 - 32%

Residential care homes

• Clusters: 475 -> increase of 5
• Cases: 6,797 -> increase of 61
• Deaths: 1,064

Nursing homes

• Clusters: 258 -> increase of 1
• Cases: 5,232 -> increase of 48
• Deaths: 933

Other vulnerable groups
Roma Community

• New cases: 0
• New clusters: 0

Travelling community

• New cases: 0
• New clusters: 0

Direct provision

• New cases: 1
• New clusters: 4

Homeless

• New cases: 0
• New clusters: 0

Workplaces

• Clusters: 47 (22 of which were meat factories)
• Cases: 1091

ShineOn7

Additionally:

Cases for the last 6 Mondays: 72, 59, 88, 139, 266, 386

So hopefully today's low number isn't "the Monday effect"

ShineOn7

WHO continue to be an ever mind and stance changing farce



https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1270349431825666052?s=21

hmmm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

WHO continue to be an ever mind and stance changing farce

There is a difference between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic. The WHO have said that true asymptomatic spread is very rare, which is correct - a small number of journalists picked this up as "WHO CHANGES THEIR MIND!!!! SHOCKER!!!!"

The problem with the WHO is they are scientists, and communicating as intelligent people using very deliberate phrasing. They need a 12 year old on staff who can translate this into language for Twitter and the popular press.

ShineOn7

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1270399802514292743

ShineOn7

Please God these single digits continue



New cases: 9
Denotified cases: 1
Total cases: 25,215
New deaths: 9
Denotified cases: 1
Total deaths: 1,691
Tests completed

• To date: 367,780
• This week: 19,634
• Positive this week: 185
• Positivty rate:1%

As of Sunday 7th June

• Total cases: 25,206
• Hospitalised: 3,331
• ICU: 413
• Deaths: 1,431
• Healthcare workers: 8,087
• Clusters: 892
• Cases associated with clusters: 10,246
• Median age infected: 48

ShineOn7

92% of all confirmed cases have now recovered which means we should be at <350 active cases?

ShineOn7

The R0 seems to be rising?



https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1271068667644719104

Hmmzis

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The R0 seems to be rising?



https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1271068667644719104

Not the R0 per se, but due to low numbers, the CI is wider.

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

Not the R0 per se, but due to low numbers, the CI is wider.

CI?

ShineOn7

Gov.ie/the user on Reddit who transcribes all highlights of the briefings


________________


New cases: 8

Total cases: 25,238
New deaths: 8
Total deaths: 1,703

Breakdown of deaths

• Total: 1,703
• Hospitalised: 42.3% (need to get this number once briefing is over)
• ICU: missed this number Underlying conditions: 1,556 - 91.4% Median age: 84 Mean age: 81

ICU Breakdown

• Total: 412
• Remain in ICU: 28
• Confirmed cases currently in hospital: 86

As of midnight Tuesday 9th June

• Total cases: 25,230
• Hospitalised: 3,307
• ICU: 412
• Median age infected: 48

Residential care homes

• Clusters: 465
• Total cases: 6886
• Deaths: 1073 - 63% of total deaths

Nursing homes

• Clusters: 251
• Total cases: 5310
• Deaths: 940

Healthcare workers - data up to midnight Saturday 6th

• Total cases: 8,123 - Increase of 64 on the week before
• Hospitalised: 303
• ICU: 44
• Deaths: 7

Epidemiological Data - 5 day averaged compared against preceeding 5 days
Average new cases

• Last week: 50
• Now: 14

Proportion testing positive

• At peak: 30%
• Recently: 2%
• Now: <1% - 1 in every 150 tests now positive

Hospitalised

• Last week: 116
• Now: 86
• New daily admissions: 3

ICU

• Last week: 34
• Now: 28
• New daily admissions: 0.2

Testing

• Data shows that we are doing more than enough testing, even though the demand is decreasing
• Monitoring where the disease comes from: very few cases now in LTRC, very small in healthcare workers
• 50-55% of cases are now confined to households

Modelling
Growth rate

• March (at peak): 33% growth
• April: 0% growth
• May and June: disease in progressive decline

R value

• Currently at 0.4-0.8
• This number is based on the disease 10-14 days ago
• Wider band is due to smaller number of cases making the calculation more difficult
• More than confident that R value is still well below 1

Hmmzis

ShineOn7 wrote: »

CI?

Confidence iterval, the smaller the numbers, the bigher the uncertainty in the values coming out of the calculations.

ShineOn7

Gove.ie/Reddit data for today. Lots of positive trends

____________________________

New Cases: 18
Total Cases: 25321
New Deaths: 0
Denotified: 0
Total Deaths: 1706

Breakdown of all deaths

• Deaths: 1706
• Hospitalised + died in hospital: 709 > 41.6%
• Died in ICU: 86 > 5.0%
• Underlying conditions: 1566 > 91.8%
• Median age: 84
• Mean age: 81

Of 417 in ICU

• Remain in ICU: 23
• New admissions: 0 - None since 9th June!
• Hospitalised 78
• New hospital additions: 2

As of Saturday 13th June

• Cases: 25303
• Hospitalised: 3278 > 13.00%
• Total In ICU: 417 > 1.70%
• Median Age: N/A (usually 48)
• Healthcare workers: 8130

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)

• Clusters: 471 > Increase of: 6 since Thursday
• Clusters closed: 297 of 472 clusters closed
• Total Cases: 6952 > Increase of: 66
• Total Deaths: 1075 > 63% of all deaths

Nursing Homes

• Clusters: 256 > Increase of: 5
• Clusters closed: 174 of 256 clusters closed
• Total Cases: 5371 > Increase of: 61
• Total Deaths: 943 > 55% of all deaths

Other clusters

No increases in total clusters or cases associated with: prisons, Roma community, travellers, homeless or direct provision


Meat Processing Plants since last Monday

• New clusters: 1
• New cases: 11
• Total cases: 1102
• Hospitalised: 31 > Increase of 2

Additional Data

• Number of cases actually occurring in the last 14 days is massively on decline. The numbers given each day may not necessarily have been positive results in the previous 24 hours

• More traffic on the roads, specifically cars and HGVs
• Public transport usage is still low

seamie78

That highlighted part is of huge significance cant believe it hasn't been given more press. Massively on decline to me would suggest a very significant decline, could we be talking about 0-5 cases a day.

ShineOn7

seamie78 wrote: »

That highlighted part is of huge significance cant believe it hasn't been given more press.

It's an appalling fact but good news doesn't get anywhere near as many clicks as bad does

You would think national newspapers and media organizations would see past this and spread the positivity

ShineOn7

New cases: 14
Denotified cases: 1
Total cases: 25,334
New deaths: 3
Total deaths: 1709

Testing Data

• Total tests: 386,572
• Last week: 18,758
• Postive last week: 146
• Positivity rate: 0.8%

As of Sunday 14th June

• Total cases: 25,320
• Hospitalised: 3,282
• ICU: 148 - Increase of 1
• Healthcare workers: 8,139
• Clusters: 976
• Cases associated with clusters: 10,668

Hmmzis

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471

A study (pre-print) analysing the relative odds of getting severe disease, based on data from Lombardy, Italy. The n is very high, so looks quite solid from that aspect. The symptom definition could have been a bit more inclusive. Their definition of asymptomatic would in other studies be split out into true asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic.

So, the kicker is, 6.9% of aged over 60 develop critical disease. By their definition that's people who need ICU care.

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471

69.1% of all infected individuals aged less than 60 years did not develop symptoms (95% confidence interval: 66.7-71.4%). The risk of symptoms increased with age. 6.9% of infected subjects older than 60 years had critical disease, with males at significantly higher risk.

So 69% in this study (4,326 people) had Covid but showed zero symptoms?

ShineOn7

Modelling

• Behaving very similar to last week in Ireland

Area This Week Last Week
New Cases 18 14 *
Positivity Rate 0.6% N/A
Hospitalised 48 73
ICU 10 - 1 new admission every 5 days N/A
Deaths reported each day 2 5

Hmmzis

ShineOn7 wrote: »

So 69% in this study (4,326 people) had Covid but showed zero symptoms?

Not quite zero, but they were either entirely asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic, meaning, they might have had some unspeciffic symptoms. The paper has the definition of what they ascribed to each category.

Paints a picture of why this thing is so hard to keep a lid on. You could have this propagating through younger people with no to very mild symptoms and none would be the wiser until it hits someone hard or there is a superspreader event resulting in an outbreak.

The over 60 age group's ICU admission rate is the big result I think, as that basically tells policy makers what the healthcare system can handle when it comes to outbreaks and cummunty spread levels.

ShineOn7

Professor Samuel McConkey was on Today FM earlier (Approximately between 5.15pm to 5.30pm if you want to listen back) and he said the following


Roughly quoting with words but accurate in the numbers he said:

If you're not on the list of close contacts of those currently isolating, your chances of getting this in the community are between 1 in 2.5 Million to 1 in 5 Million

I'm much more concerned about how open our airports are at the moment to high risk countries. If we put better measures in place against these high risk countries we can keep it suppressed. Otherwise, we can rise to a thousand new cases in the space of 5 days if the R0 gets out of control with imported cases from travellers from high risk countries

So great news right?

But, our airports are so exposed to UK, USA, Brazil and others, that isn't it just a matter of time before we blow all the great work done by the Restrictions?