The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

FintanMcluskey

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks for the link

So Covid - in the best case scenario laid out by the HSE worker doing the AMA - will cause about a third of what we get fatalities wise in a normal year?

Actually; we need to add the 10k to the average 30k for 40,000 dont we? So Covid - in this scenario - will account for 25% of all fatalities in Ireland this year

Some of those posts haven't aged well

ShineOn7

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Some of those posts haven't aged well

For sure. I was going on the HSE worker doing the AMA on here's info though

We should all be delighted they were extremely off the mark

FintanMcluskey

ShineOn7 wrote: »

For sure. I was going on the HSE worker doing the AMA on here's info though

We should all be delighted they were extremely off the mark

We should.

It was still irresponsible of someone to give outrageous projections under the HSE umbrella.

Public health information should be delivered in a professional manner without advising elderly people to make wills

ShineOn7

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We should.

It was still irresponsible of someone to give outrageous projections under the HSE umbrella.

Public health information should be delivered in a professional manner without advising elderly people to make wills

100% agree

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We should.

It was still irresponsible of someone to give outrageous projections under the HSE umbrella.

Public health information should be delivered in a professional manner without advising elderly people to make wills

He was a bit alarmist but:

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

If we are lucky and really socially isolate it’ll be much lower but I can’t see it being less than 2,000 over the course of the year.

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

He was a bit alarmist but:

On their last round of answers they said 15k mortalaties in Ireland by mid next year

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

On their last round of answers they said 15k mortalaties in Ireland by mid next year

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

So, first phase: Now till end of September
This will be the phase in which we will likely see 1500 to 2000 dead in Ireland by the end of May and a smaller daily number from June to September - I expect Ireland would tolerate 5 to 10 dead per day during that period in return for things largely returning to normal. So call it a low of 2100 and a high of 3200 dead by end of September. The main clusters will be in nursing homes, roma gypsies and traveller groupings because of their medical risk factors, proximity and intergenerational living setups.

Not far off.

It was his next section where the OTT bit started, but still somewhat prescient

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

So, Phase 2: October to December
I'll assume we don't even have an experimental vaccine... If that is true then we'll have a choice between accepting higher daily death rates - which we'll have become accustomed to by the next two months - for those three months or we'll go into whatever of lockdown the statisticians and PR guys have figured will result in the daily death rate which the public will tolerate versus the severity of the lockdown.

This will be when you'll really see the selfishness in society. Things happened so quickly this time there wasn't much debate. Come October there will be a very active pushback against another lockdown. There will be a very active - but they're old and will die soon anyway lobby, much more active than it is now.

Unfortunately when push comes to shove people tend to be very selfish and when they've had a taste of freedom after two months of lockdown they really won't, en masse, want to go back to lockdown. The line that those whose families are high risk can choose to behave how they want instead of forcing all of society into lockdown will be prevalent.

How many will die in Q4? Well, easily 6k to 8k but a lot of that depends on the political and economic balancing vs deaths. How many die will be a choice the public and our government will make. They'll have the information to project the death rates from various courses of action much more accurately than they had now. This is why they were so cautious this time. Come October they'll have greater confidence in balancing life vs economics.

I suspect they'll strike a balance somewhat below the peak of April/May as people will be habituated to view anything below that peak as being "good". That would argue that they won't exceed 50 daily deaths for those 3 months and would result in 4500 dead in Q4. They may draw the line differently but I don't see the government enacting a full three month lockdown. I'd be impressed if they did, but I just don't see it happening for economic reasons.

The key point is we'll have the number of dead in Q4 we choose to have politically. There's a lower bound on that number below which we probably can't go but that lower bound may be as low as 1,000... but achieving that number would really impact the economy.

Thierry12

ShineOn7 wrote: »

5 months on since this thread began, and are we seeing any changes in CFR and IFR etc in Ireland?

This post from Thierry12 just caught my eye




Question: can anyone mathematically work out the hospitality rates, CFR and IFR for the under 40s and under 50s with no underlying conditions (two separate calculations) as they stand now?

I wasn't far off :pac:

Case ICU rate is at 0.12%, even better than what I guessed at 0.28%

Safe to assume under 40s/50s with no underlying conditions would be below 0.10% CFR

99.9% survival rate being banded about looks very accurate

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20200915_Website.pdf

Don't like that 2.58% hospitalised rate

ShineOn7

Trying this again for anyone who's very statistically minded (and adding some more) as it's looking more and more likely we're looking at a virus with an IFR for all age groups combined of 0.5%, so five times more lethal than the Flu

Question:

can anyone mathematically work out the hospitality rates, CFR and IFR for the under 40s and under 50s in Ireland with no underlying conditions (two separate calculations) as they stand now?

Additionally:

Can anyone work out the same three things based on worldwide statistics?

And:

What are you using more to base your judgment on where the figures really stand right now; is it the CFR or the IFR? It's gotta be IFR right?

IAMAMORON

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Trying this again for anyone who's very statistically minded (and adding some more) as it's looking more and more likely we're looking at a virus with an IFR for all age groups combined of 0.5%, so five times more lethal than the Flu

Question:

can anyone mathematically work out the hospitality rates, CFR and IFR for the under 40s and under 50s in Ireland with no underlying conditions (two separate calculations) as they stand now?

Additionally:

Can anyone work out the same three things based on worldwide statistics?

And:

What are you using more to base your judgment on where the figures really stand right now; is it the CFR or the IFR? It's gotta be IFR right?

If you can link me the data you want to extrapolate from I can.

But I can tell you already that the case increase is because the schools are gone back, there is no great coincidence going on here, it is happening right in front of everyone's eyes.

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

If you can link me the data you want to extrapolate from I can.

But I can tell you already that the case increase is because the schools are gone back, there is no great coincidence going on here, it is happening right in front of everyone's eyes.

Why did the case increase start before schools return and why is the current rate of increase the same as before schools returned?

ShineOn7

IAMAMORON wrote: »

If you can link me the data you want to extrapolate from I can.

Thanks. Are you familiar with these two websites?

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

They are a minefield to navigate sometimes

I worked out last week that if you're under 45 in Ireland your chances of not going to hospital with it are 98.55%, which is a great stat

So 1.45% of those under 45 in Ireland have had it serious enough that they needed hospitalization

That's as far as I got though

bb1234567

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks. Are you familiar with these two websites?

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

They are a minefield to navigate sometimes

I worked out last week that if you're under 45 in Ireland your chances of not going to hospital with it are 98.55%, which is a great stat

So 1.45% of those under 45 in Ireland have had it serious enough that they needed hospitalization

That's as far as I got though

Just 1.45% of confirmedthough surely? It's likely more like 0.145% of people under 45 have it bad then, maybe 0.3%? If we are to believe that roughly, or at least during the height of the pandemic, about 9/10 cases were missed by testing

IAMAMORON

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks. Are you familiar with these two websites?

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

They are a minefield to navigate sometimes

I worked out last week that if you're under 45 in Ireland your chances of not going to hospital with it are 98.55%, which is a great stat

So 1.45% of those under 45 in Ireland have had it serious enough that they needed hospitalization

That's as far as I got though

since the outbreak 652 people under the age of 45 have been admitted to hospital. 67 have been admitted to ICU. 19 people have died under the age of 45.

Age Cases Hosp % ICU % Deaths
0-4 516 29 0.81 1 0.21 0
5-14 1138 20 0.56 2 0.43 0
15-24 4221 93 2.58 5 1.06 1
25-34 6286 217 6.03 17 3.62 6
35-44 6060 293 8.14 42 8.94 12
45-54 5970 486 13.5 97 20.64 28
55-64 4156 543 15.08 135 28.72 73
65-74 2329 641 17.81 116 24.68 231
75-84 2539 785 21.81 49 10.43 529
>85 2487 492 13.67 6 1.28 667
unknown 24 1 0.03 0 0 0

35726 3600 100.02 470 100.01 1547

ShineOn7

bb1234567 wrote: »

Just 1.45% of confirmedthough surely? It's likely more like 0.145% of people under 45 have it bad then, maybe 0.3%? If we are to believe that roughly, or at least during the height of the pandemic, about 9/10 cases were missed by testing

That's probably the roughest "sure feck it, be grand" Maths we've seen in this thread

Absolutely nothing you said is based on actual data

IAMAMORON

Deleted User wrote: »

Why did the case increase start before schools return and why is the current rate of increase the same as before schools returned?

If you can prove your sentiment with figures I can have this barney with you.

But this thread is all about the math.

Provide the figures and lets go?

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

If you can prove your sentiment with figures I can have this barney with you.

But this thread is all about the math.

Provide the figures and lets go?

Rate of cases in school ages fallen slightly relative to all ages since start of September
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19%2014%20day%20epidemiology%20report_noti_date_20200902_website.pdf
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20200930%20-%20website.pdf

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

If you can prove your sentiment with figures I can have this barney with you.

But this thread is all about the math.

Provide the figures and lets go?

Sep 2 7 day avg 107,
Sep 9th 150 +40% ( these cases were seeded prior to return)
Sep16th 234 +40%
Sep 23rd 268 + 14.5%( is it slowing)
Sep 30th 328 +22%( yep, not as high as earlier)

IAMAMORON

Deleted User wrote: »

Rate of cases in school ages fallen slightly relative to all ages since start of September
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19%2014%20day%20epidemiology%20report_noti_date_20200902_website.pdf
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20200930%20-%20website.pdf

First of all there were no kids at school before the 1st of September?
Secondly the data provided omits cases between the 1st and 15th of September?

But on what you have provided

19.08.2020 - 01.09.2020 01.09.2020 - 15.09.2020 16.09.2020 -28.09.2020
Age cases cases
0-4 50 3.17% 121 2.76%
5-14 134 8.51% 318 7.25%
15-24 384 24.38% 1077 24.57%
25-34 312 19.81% 790 18.02%
35-44 241 15.30% 644 14.69%
45-54 204 12.95% 602 13.73%
55-64 136 8.63% 409 9.33%
65-74 49 3.11% 245 5.59%
75-84 47 2.98% 123 2.81%
>85 18 1.14% 55 1.25%
1575 100.00% 4384 100.00%


It would be nice for this barney to have the deets between 15-24 split between school and non school.:)

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

First of all there were no kids at school before the 1st of September?
Secondly the data provided omits cases between the 1st and 15th of September?

But on what you have provided

19.08.2020 - 01.09.2020 01.09.2020 - 15.09.2020 16.09.2020 -28.09.2020
Age cases cases
0-4 50 3.17% 121 2.76%
5-14 134 8.51% 318 7.25%
15-24 384 24.38% 1077 24.57%
25-34 312 19.81% 790 18.02%
35-44 241 15.30% 644 14.69%
45-54 204 12.95% 602 13.73%
55-64 136 8.63% 409 9.33%
65-74 49 3.11% 245 5.59%
75-84 47 2.98% 123 2.81%
>85 18 1.14% 55 1.25%
1575 100.00% 4384 100.00%


It would be nice for this barney to have the deets between 15-24 split between school and non school.:)

So 19 to 24 year olds have reduced their contacts since the start of the month?
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/senator-calls-for-army-to-take-to-streets-as-videos-show-hundreds-of-students-flouting-public-health-guidelines-in-galway-39572290.html

IAMAMORON

Deleted User wrote: »

So 19 to 24 year olds have reduced their contacts since the start of the month?
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/senator-calls-for-army-to-take-to-streets-as-videos-show-hundreds-of-students-flouting-public-health-guidelines-in-galway-39572290.html

Facts please, newspaper articles never refuse ink...

I will only barney with published facts.. not the ramblings of a senator published by a hack.

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Facts please, newspaper articles never refuse ink...

I will only barney with published facts.. not the ramblings of a senator published by a hack.

How do you conclude that 15 to 18 year olds are driving the increase in 15 to 24 year olds, especially when case levels in 5 to 14 year olds, all school age kids has fallen as a proportion of all cases. There is no evidence that the school return is driving the increase in cases, not least because it started in August. Now if you have data that suggests otherwise please provide, however all you have so far is conjecture

IAMAMORON

Deleted User wrote: »

How do you conclude that 15 to 18 year olds are driving the increase in 15 to 24 year olds, especially when case levels in 5 to 14 year olds, all school age kids has fallen as a proportion of all cases. There is no evidence that the school return is driving the increase in cases, not least because it started in August. Now if you have data that suggests otherwise please provide, however all you have so far is conjecture

Which is all you have as well?

Sorry this conversation is over.

IAMAMORON

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no evidence that the school return is driving the increase in cases, not least because it started in August.

Given that 33% of cases nationally are between the ages of 4-24 and that 24% are between the age of 15-24 ......

That is enough evidence for me.

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Which is all you have as well?

Sorry this conversation is over.

Well this is what I was replying to:

But I can tell you already that the case increase is because the schools are gone back

which sounds a lot like your certain, which would suggest you have sone data. Now I provided some data which suggests no increase in schools relative to the population and that the rate of increase is actually slowing. Now I have provided data to back my point, so you must have some different data the supports the conjecture that is “no coincidence that the case increase is because schools are back”
My conjecture is that the case increase is driven by increased mixing throughout the country in audits and a general reduction in adherence to guidelines across society

IAMAMORON

Deleted User wrote: »

Well this is what I was replying to:



which sounds a lot like your certain, which would suggest you have sone data. Now I provided some data which suggests no increase in schools relative to the population and that the rate of increase is actually slowing. Now I have provided data to back my point, so you must have some different data the supports the conjecture that is “no coincidence that the case increase is because schools are back”
My conjecture is that the case increase is driven by increased mixing throughout the country in audits and a general reduction in adherence to guidelines across society

You have no data between the 1st and 15th September... why?

You have no data before mid August ?

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Given that 33% of cases nationally are between the ages of 4-24 and that 24% are between the age of 15-24 ......

That is enough evidence for me.

On the 2nd of September 33% of cases were between the ages of 4 and 24 and 24% were between the age of 15 and 24. Unchanged

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

You have no data between the 1st and 15th September... why?

You have no data before mid August ?

Between the 1st and 15th of September the percentages did not change

IAMAMORON

Deleted User wrote: »

Between the 1st and 15th of September the percentages did not change

See ya.

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

See ya.

No data to support your point?
I have provided data from before schools returned to yesterday showing no increase in cases in school ages relative to the population and the response is “see ya”

Exponential growth looks like the rate of increase is getting worse when you don’t understand numbers