Restrictions extended until 5th May

JL555

BoatMad wrote: »

Cases here are well behind the original estimates , just exactly what is the exit strategy ?

In my view there can only be two exit strategies;

1) The Vaccine comes: (reports suggest either this September or up to 18mths time, but could be much longer, we just cannot be guaranteed of anything yet)

2) Gradually expose large numbers of the population to the virus until immunity sets in.

Neither of which are particularly good as they will deliver more death and severe economic hardship for many people.

Just on a side note, I watched the TV series of the 12 monkeys again late last year, it's excellent IMO, humans of the future are desperately trying to use time travel to prevent the virus from from spreading in the first place as after many waves, humanity is about to be wiped out.

ldy4mxonucwsq6

I was wondering why they announced a 3 and a half week extension when it was expected that there would be another 2 week increment.

I had thought it was so they were going worst case so they could have the good news of easing measures a little earlier than May 5th but now I'm not sure.

I think the R0 needs to be <1 before they can manage to ease restrictions.

BoatMad

JL555 wrote: »

In my view there can only be two exit strategies;

1) The Vaccine comes: (reports suggest either this September or up to 18mths time, but could be much longer, we just cannot be guaranteed of anything yet)

2) Gradually expose large numbers of the population to the virus.

Neither of which are particularly good as they will deliver more death and severe economic hardship for many people.

Just on a side note, I watched the TV series of the 12 monkeys again late last year, it's excellent IMO, humans of the future are desperately trying to use time travel to prevent the virus from from spreading in the first place as after many waves, humanity is about to be wiped out.

I’ve a good friend whose is a retired professor in this field , I got a very ( lot over my head ) details of the RNA structure of this virus , it’s very novel , he’s of the view a full vaccine will be almost impossible , at best we might get 4-6 months immunity , it will be like the flu , but far more contagious

Ultimately we are going to have to cut our losses and jus5 live with this virus

theological

JL555 wrote: »

In my view there can only be two exit strategies;

1) The Vaccine comes: (reports suggest either this September or up to 18mths time, but could be much longer, we just cannot be guaranteed of anything yet)

2) Gradually expose large numbers of the population to the virus until immunity sets in.

Neither of which are particularly good as they will deliver more death and severe economic hardship for many people.

Just on a side note, I watched the TV series of the 12 monkeys again late last year, it's excellent IMO, humans of the future are desperately trying to use time travel to prevent the virus from from spreading in the first place as after many waves, humanity is about to be wiped out.

Or 3) ease gradually after mass testing is in place and case numbers decrease substantially after the peak and revert to a contact tracing strategy until vaccine is in place.

BoatMad

Tucker Zealous Purple wrote: »

I was wondering why they announced a 3 and a half week extension when it was expected that there would be another 2 week increment.

I had thought it was so they were going worst case so they could have the good news of easing measures a little earlier than May 5th but now I'm not sure.

I think the R0 needs to be <1 before they can manage to ease restrictions.

I think they wanted to dampen down exceptations for the May bank holiday

The main problem is we have no picture of the actual level of inflection, officials are effectively “ making it up “ because widespread testing isn’t going to happen ( reagent , test time , logistics ) so we can’t actuslly determine R0.

This will be a political decision , largely driven by what our ecomonic competitors are or will do.

jimmyrustle

BoatMad wrote: »

What info points to that happening after the 5th. You may be grasping at straws

Assuming China is finally telling the truth, that things have largely stabilised in Wuhan, and that is the reason for lifting the lockdown, they were to my knowledge in full lockdown from January 23rd until April 8th, or around 10 weeks.

It is likely that, due to a combination of their denser living conditions, poorer standards of food hygiene, etc etc, the virus spread harder and faster than it did in Ireland (let's ignore their stats as they are likely deliberate under reports)

China initiated lockdown at the height of an epidemic.

We initiated it, although not early enough, with a bit better foresight. Other factors led to it being a staggered lockdown (schools and offices closing earlier for example), and since around March 10th anyone with half a brain, like me, was taking social distancing, paying by card and hand washing precautions (a good 70 percent of people reading this post couldn't be remotely bothered doing so, and most probably weren't doing so until a few days into the full lockdown).

If China was destroyed by it and largely beat it with a 10 week lockdown, one would hope that we, never hit as hard by it, can beat it with a shorter lockdown. At the minute that lockdown is keyed in to have lasted 5 weeks, half the time it took a full lockdown in China.

Whether that means it could be 8 more weeks til we get a pint into us, or longer, or shorter, I do not know. It does, however, bring us up roughly to the June bank holiday. Whether the government think they should set this as a target date, or whether we can get back in earlier, who knows.

For reference, our timeline went:

- 10/3 flights are scaled back
- 12/3 schools, colleges, shut
- 13/3 most offices with remote working capability close
- 16/4 pubs close
- 18/3 most non food retailers close
- 26/03 most chain takeaways close, prior to this had not allowed seating
- 27/03 full lockdown

JL555

BoatMad wrote: »

I’ve a good friend whose is a retired professor in this field , I got a very ( lot over my head ) details of the RNA structure of this virus , it’s very novel , he’s of the view a full vaccine will be almost impossible , at best we might get 4-6 months immunity , it will be like the flu , but far more contagious

Ultimately we are going to have to cut our losses and jus5 live with this virus

We might very well have to do that, some of the main issues with this virus is that once it infects someone it reproduces extremely quickly and it doesn't necessarily cause symptoms straight away (or none at all) but still spreads and infects others.

BoatMad

theological wrote: »

Or 3) ease gradually after mass testing is in place and case numbers decrease substantially after the peak and revert to a contact tracing strategy until vaccine is in place.

How long do you wait for either , months , years , widespread testing is a joke , no reagents , long test time ( 6 hours ) , logistics , it’s a myth we can test a substantial percentage.

An actual vaccine may be years away , especially a comprehensive one , widely available and effective ( and how long do we wait to see its effectiveness )

Reopening is a political call, a trade off between rate of illness and the need to have a functioning ecomony , it’s not a medical decision at all

theological

BoatMad wrote: »

How long do you wait for either , months , years , widespread testing is a joke , no reagents , long test time ( 6 hours ) , logistics , it’s a myth we can test a substantial percentage.

An actual vaccine may be years away , especially a comprehensive one , widely available and effective ( and how long do we wait to see its effectiveness )

Reopening is a political call, a trade off between rate of illness and the need to have a functioning ecomony , it’s not a medical decision at all

The virus will probably peak in the coming weeks. It needs to come down substantially so that is a few more. Hopefully mass testing of the population for antibodies will follow.

It is still weeks away but I think the strictest restrictions lasting for 18 months is unlikely.

BoatMad

jimmyrustle wrote: »

Assuming China is finally telling the truth, that things have largely stabilised in Wuhan, and that is the reason for lifting the lockdown, they were to my knowledge in full lockdown from January 23rd until April 8th, or around 10 weeks.

It is likely that, due to a combination of their denser living conditions, poorer standards of food hygiene, etc etc, the virus spread harder and faster than it did in Ireland (let's ignore their stats as they are likely deliberate under reports)

China initiated lockdown at the height of an epidemic.

We initiated it, although not early enough, with a bit better foresight. Other factors led to it being a staggered lockdown (schools and offices closing earlier for example), and since around March 10th anyone with half a brain, like me, was taking social distancing, paying by card and hand washing precautions (a good 70 percent of people reading this post couldn't be remotely bothered doing so, and most probably weren't doing so until a few days into the full lockdown).

If China was destroyed by it and largely beat it with a 10 week lockdown, one would hope that we, never hit as hard by it, can beat it with a shorter lockdown. At the minute that lockdown is keyed in to have lasted 5 weeks, half the time it took a full lockdown in China.

For reference, our timeline went:

- 10/3 flights are scaled back
- 12/3 schools, colleges, shut
- 13/3 most offices with remote working capability close
- 16/4 pubs close
- 18/3 most non food retailers close
- 26/03 most chain takeaways close, prior to this had not allowed seating
- 27/03 full lockdown

We have yet to see evidence of the second wave in China and then there’s the re-importation of the disease, Singapore has been badly affected by that , Ireland as a small open ecomony can’t shut down travel etc

BoatMad

theological wrote: »

The virus will probably peak in the coming weeks. It needs to come down substantially so that is a few more. Hopefully mass testing of the population for antibodies will follow.

It is still weeks away but I think the strictest restrictions lasting for 18 months is unlikely.

I predict this ecomony will have to restart by June , irrespective of testing ( which isnt going to happen )
As for antibody testing , the creation of an official “ super race “ , I’m loading the shotgun if that happens

Imagine , you can go to the pub and you cant , yet both of you are healthy , mass civil unrest at that point

TheRiverman

BoatMad wrote: »

I’ve a good friend whose is a retired professor in this field , I got a very ( lot over my head ) details of the RNA structure of this virus , it’s very novel , he’s of the view a full vaccine will be almost impossible , at best we might get 4-6 months immunity , it will be like the flu , but far more contagious

Ultimately we are going to have to cut our losses and jus5 live with this virus

A Professor in Oxford University stating today they are very hopeful of having a vaccine ready for widespread use by September.I think she said she is 80% certain at present.Dont know any other details.

Diarmuid

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

That's the first thing I thought when I saw the news on ferries. You're pretty much guaranteed to have drunk travellers on every ferry crossing between here and Britain.

Sorry to burst your bubble. I was on a ferry last weekend from France. There were 3 couples and 6 truckers on it. The hysteria surrounding ferries importing coronavirus is the typical he said she said that's infecting social media these days

jimmyrustle

BoatMad wrote: »

, Ireland as a small open ecomony can’t shut down travel etc

Why not?

A ban on non essential travel to and from the continent for all Irish residents.

The very thought of our EU sycophant "leaders" considering that one is zero of course. Leo believes the border will regulate itself just like he thinks the housing market will.

niallo27

BoatMad wrote: »

I’ve a good friend whose is a retired professor in this field , I got a very ( lot over my head ) details of the RNA structure of this virus , it’s very novel , he’s of the view a full vaccine will be almost impossible , at best we might get 4-6 months immunity , it will be like the flu , but far more contagious

Ultimately we are going to have to cut our losses and jus5 live with this virus

This is not in line with most research that says it's very slow to mutate which follows most corona viruses which would mean a longer immunity.

BoatMad

jimmyrustle wrote: »

Why not?

A ban on non essential travel to and from the continent for all Irish residents.

The very thought of our EU sycophant "leaders" considering that one is zero of course. Leo believes the border will regulate itself just like he thinks the housing market will.

We have enormous business travel between ourselves and the uk , and especially NI , can’t be done in today’s ecomony

Diarmuid

TheRiverman wrote: »

A Professor in Oxford University stating today they are very hopeful of having a vaccine ready for widespread use by September.I think she said she is 80% certain at present.Dont know any other details.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-in-six-months-times

She said success by the autumn was “just about possible if everything goes perfectly.”

The fact is that most of the industry is cautioning of 12 to 18 months, I wouldn't be holding my breath

jimmyrustle

Downlinz wrote: »

There's a degree of lacking perspective among LC students but I definitely sympathise. They've effectively lost the last summer with their school friends in exchange for an extra two months of unfocused, preoccupied study at home and might then have to move very quickly from exams to college.

They'll get over it but it's a nightmare way to end their school life.

I don't even understand this lost summer business. If the exams are cancelled they lose an entire YEAR of their lives. FFS some of them would be 20 years old doing the LC if they done transition year. 20 years old and still wearing a school uniform and saying sir and miss, **** me. If the exam is cancelled this year, and colleges admit nobody in September, kids forevermore will d an additional year in school- can't have the class of 2020 starting college in the same year as the class of 2021, there wouldn't be the room.

BoatMad

nicallo27 wrote: »

This is not in line with most research that says it's very slow to mutate which follows most corona viruses which would mean a longer immunity.

“
By analysing the first 160 complete virus genomes to be sequenced from human patients, the scientists have mapped some of the original spread of the new coronavirus through its mutations, which creates different viral lineages.

"There are too many rapid mutations to neatly trace a COVID-19 family tree. We used a mathematical network algorithm to visualise all the plausible trees simultaneously," said geneticist Dr Peter Forster, lead author from the University of Cambridge.“
Source https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.htm

It mutates about half the rate of flu , but that still a lot ,

niallo27

BoatMad wrote: »

“
By analysing the first 160 complete virus genomes to be sequenced from human patients, the scientists have mapped some of the original spread of the new coronavirus through its mutations, which creates different viral lineages.

"There are too many rapid mutations to neatly trace a COVID-19 family tree. We used a mathematical network algorithm to visualise all the plausible trees simultaneously," said geneticist Dr Peter Forster, lead author from the University of Cambridge.“
Source https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.htm

Anything that's actually peer reviewed. I'm not disputing it but everything I have read points to a longer immunity.

theological

BoatMad wrote: »

I predict this ecomony will have to restart by June , irrespective of testing ( which isnt going to happen )
As for antibody testing , the creation of an official “ super race “ , I’m loading the shotgun if that happens

Imagine , you can go to the pub and you cant , yet both of you are healthy , mass civil unrest at that point

I'm not suggesting that the antibody test should be used for giving people tickets to go out.

An antibody test would tell us how many people are immune and in which locations and would allow a more data driven approach to mitigating the spread of the virus.

The problem now is that we don't know how many people are affected and where in an accurate way.

BoatMad

niallo27 wrote: »

Anything that's actually peer reviewed. I'm not disputing it but everything I have read points to a longer immunity.

The scientific community agree that data suggest it mutates around half the rate of the flu, that’s still a considerable rate , hence providing a long term vaccine s regarded as very challenging

We survive the flu , because it’s not that contagious , this however is.

BoatMad

theological wrote: »

I'm not suggesting that the antibody test should be used for giving people tickets to go out.

An antibody test would tell us how many people are immune and in which locations and would allow a more data driven approach to mitigating the spread of the virus.

The problem now is that we don't know how many people are affected and where in an accurate way.

Widespread testing is a fallacy being pedalled to mollify people. It’s impossible

“ Data driven approach to mitigating the spread “ , is a “ nice “ way of saying , your healthy but living in the wrong place , stay out of the pub , you sir , let me open that door”

What follows is civil unrest and people actively seeking to acquire the virus

theological

BoatMad wrote: »

Widespread testing is a fallacy being pedalled to mollify people. It’s impossible

“ Data driven approach to mitigating the spread “ , is a “ nice “ way of saying , your healthy but living in the wrong place , stay out of the pub , you sir , let me open that door”

What follows is civil unrest and people actively seeking to acquire the virus

I didn't say anything about a ticket system to go out. Or pubs opening. So I don't know where this civil unrest is coming from.

Good data on where it is however and the ability to track could allow for loosening of rules. It is a long way off however.

BoatMad

theological wrote: »

I didn't say anything about a ticket system to go out. Or pubs opening. So I don't know where this civil unrest is coming from.

Good data on where it is however and the ability to track could allow for loosening of rules. It is a long way off however.

What you suggest , is as I say , because data will Be geographically diverse and demographically diverse , hence it leads to selective lifting of lockdown

As I said , your from where , back to your house , you sir , let me open that door

Any form of collective decisions based on tests will be extraordinary socially divisive and in my view untenable , ( large scale testing isn’t ever going to happen anyway )

“ long way off “

It won’t , because we will ultimately have to balance death against economic actively , just like every time we step into a car

What we are doing is ok in a very short timescale, ie a few weeks, it’s not sustainable much longer then that irrespective of the health position

Discodog

BoatMad wrote: »

The scientific community agree that data suggest it mutates around half the rate of the flu, that’s still a considerable rate , hence providing a long term vaccine s regarded as very challenging

We survive the flu , because it’s not that contagious , this however is.

Surely it will be added to the normal yearly flu vaccination ?

niallo27

BoatMad wrote: »

The scientific community agree that data suggest it mutates around half the rate of the flu, that’s still a considerable rate , hence providing a long term vaccine s regarded as very challenging

We survive the flu , because it’s not that contagious , this however is.

If it mutated half the rate of the flu and the flu vaccine is annual then why would a vaccine for this only last 3 or 4 months.

theological

BoatMad wrote: »

What you suggest , is as I say , because data will Be geographically diverse and demographically diverse , hence it leads to selective lifting of lockdown

As I said , your from where , back to your house , you sir , let me open that door

Any form of collective decisions based on tests will be extraordinary socially divisive and in my view untenable , ( large scale testing isn’t ever going to happen anyway )

“ long way off “

It won’t , because we will ultimately have to balance death against economic actively , just like every time we step into a car

What we are doing is ok in a very short timescale, ie a few weeks, it’s not sustainable much longer then that irrespective of the health position

Making any decisions about anything without looking at the data would be a fool's errand. It wouldn't be economically conducive to let a load of people out into society to catch this illness and create a second wave.

It is better to spend the time and effort to eradicate the virus in the first wave and to build up the resources we need for contact tracing and testing to ensure that a second wave does not take place.

ShineOn7

BoatMad wrote: »

To achieve what precisely , we can’t defeat a virus

Lockdowns are to mitigate a virus, not stop it

This is going to go: surge --> lockdown --> lower daily cases and deaths --> restrictions lifted --> surge --> lockdown --> lower daily cases and deaths --> restrictions lifted --> surge --> lockdown --> lower daily cases and deaths --> restrictions lifted ...

For how long? Who knows. But probably a lot longer than any of us expected

SusanC10

Friend of mine just text me to say that she heard Prof. Sam McConkey on the Radio saying that a vaccine will take approx 3 years and that we should all prepare to be restricted for that length of time.

Didn't hear it myself but the thoughts of 3 years is very depressing.